My Annual TC prognostications

[OTM Al]

...and I felt at a loss on this last year.....

Must admit I am not thrilled with this group. Not yet anyway. Had high hopes for Hard Spun, but his failure to fire leaves me at a bit of a loss. But here is where I'm at right now...

Top Tier:
Summer Doldrums: Might as well get it out there on this one. He's the only one to have covered a route of ground at anything like the clip one would expect a contender to do. On the flip side it was done on the inner at Aqueduct. Stranger things have happened I guess, but until he blows it, I have to put him up here

Nobiz: Everyone has him. It's required this year I think. I do like his sire. He's done all that's been asked but I sure want to see some flash from him next week

Second Tier:
Hard Spun: I haven't given up yet. Way wide the whole way and the jock said he just didn't act right. Have to give him a muligan, but he's going right out with another bad one.

Circular Quay: I think he was the best horse at the Risen Star. Still finished a good 5th after having to almost go in reverse. Big con though is he is a deep closer and will find even more trouble in a 20 horse field than he has in his las 2 with 14 and 12 resp.

Street Sense: Normally I would throw him out for just scheduling 2 preps, but this might be the year that is busted. Barbaro only had 3 and one was on Jan 1st, so no that big a difference. Not a lot of faith, but haven't seen much yet this year.

The you have my attention tier:
Any Given Saturday: I totally dig his name. Need to see a bit more than he's shown, but that was his first back and he won for fun, so maybe

Ravel: California product has not thrilled me, but he is likely the best of the lot

Great Hunter: 2 prep thing, but I liked him a little at 2

The no freakin way tier:
Nobody yet really unless we're talkin the Green Monkey. Nobody has been that good so this one still looks wide open to these eyes. Smarty Jones I miss you so........

[JustRalph]

Too early. Somebody else could still emerge. Way too early.

[OTM Al]

Yeah, but it gets late pretty quick. Just want to see something good in the next couple weeks. Probably have plenty of updates to this after March 17 which will be not only a big race weekend, but my 1 and only 40th B-Day. Stunningly unimpressed this year, but as every year I will post and track my thoughts as we move toward May. I guess 3 years in a row of seeing it all pretty clearly from very early on was the abberation rather than the rule.

[shanta]

winner will be one of the win or placers from a grade 1 or grade 2 prep race at 8.5f or longer in 2007

Kianti just looked in his ball (or was that his bowl?)
:)

Richie

[OTM Al]

Another big prep weekend gone and I'm still not liking much I've seen. Hoping next weekend will show me something, but I've had to change things after Saturday's unimpressive FoY renewal.

Top Tier:
Summer Doldrums: Still the best fig of the lot and the only one to run close to the speed it takes to win the big one. Really looking forward to him running in the Gotham now.

Hard Spun: He gets to come back up here. He blows his next race though, he's gone. Just think there is more to him than we saw in the Southwest, but nothing to base that on.

Second Tier:
Circular Quay: Just have trouble supporting a deep closer....

Stormello: I really liked this guy end of last year. He was my top BC pick. With a little more conditioning under him I think he would have taken FoY with ease. Just one more prep though, which will get him fitter, but not really fit enough.

Nobiz: I almost threw him completely out. He is not developing. He looked terrible coming down the stretch. Those problems should be a thing of the past right now. Kinda wondering if he'll be this year's Bluegrass Cat though. Just when we all get disgusted with him, he sneaks up and makes payouts go boxcars.

You have my interest in a good way tier:

Any Given Saturday: Looking forward to see what he does against stiffer competiton.

King of the Roxy: Another 2 prepper and 1 isn't even a route. Another I liked a lot at the end of last year, but just don't see him stepping up fast enough.

Ravel: California does not impress again this year. That race on the SA undercard looked like a weak allowance race. He's the best out there, but don't know what that means.

Scat Daddy: I just included him for one reason and that is that he's the one that keeps winning, but isn't supposed to have been able to make the distance. As someone who defended Smarty against these allegations to no end, I'm giving him a spot here.....but I still don't think he can make the distance

Overrated:
No Biz: Yeah, he is on tier 2 but I don't think that's lasting much longer. Talent may be there, but he is not showing it. Might be a better racer if he got the snip, but that's not going to happen.

Great Hunter: Headlines trumpeted his visually impressive defeat of absolutely nothing. That field looked about like one would expect from the Borderland Derby. SA has one too many prep races.

Want to see again before making a judgement:

Both Notional and Liquidity are getting a lot of trumpeting, but I have been unable to form an opinion about them yet. I have a feeling the opinion will be negative in the end, but would be unfair of me to not give them a fair shake.

[Indulto]

Top Tier:
Summer Doldrums:

Hard Spun:
Second Tier:

Circular Quay:

Stormello:I really liked this guy end of last year. He was my top BC pick. With a little more conditioning under him I think he would have taken FoY with ease. Just one more prep though, which will get him fitter, but not really fit enough.

Nobiz:

You have my interest in a good way tier:
Any Given Saturday:.

King of the Roxy:

Ravel:

Scat Daddy:

Overrated:
No Biz: Yeah, he is on tier 2 but I don't think that's lasting much longer. Talent may be there, but he is not showing it. Might be a better racer if he got the snip, but that's not going to happen.

Great Hunter:Headlines trumpeted his visually impressive defeat of absolutely nothing. That field looked about like one would expect from the Borderland Derby. SA has one too many prep races.
OA
Entertaining commentary. Watch out, Steve Haskins! ;)

May I nominate Adore the Gold to the “You have my interest in a good way” tier? Also how about Teufelsberg, conqueror of Hard Spun, to the “Second” tier? Blinkers did the trick, at a track he likes and he’s likely to continue improving there. We’ll see how long Elliot keeps the mount.

Speaking of jocks, were we Torpedeauxed?

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/04/sports/othersports/04racing.html (http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/04/sports/othersports/04racing.html)
Scat Daddy Is Back in Derby Discussion
By JOE DRAPE

… But 1 minute 49.11 seconds later, Scat Daddy was the big horse, surging in the final step to nose out a West Coast invader named Stormello.

… “It was a tough beat,” said Kent Desormeaux, the jockey who rode Stormello. “I never wanted to be on the front end with him. He left like a quarter horse. I did the best I could to get him to settle, and give me a quiet ride. I think it’s a good effort on his part, but it still hurts. It’s an aggravating defeat.”

[OTM Al]

Teufelsburg maybe, but if Scat Daddy can't get the distance, Adore the Gold has even less a chance. Do a Lost in the Fog type campaign with him. He'll win them all. Run him in the derby and he'll end up another casualty.

I am not a fan of the ragin Cajun, but I don't think Willie Shoemaker could have got him home in front. Just wasn't fully ready. Won't be in May probably either.

[OTM Al]

No full writeup this week as I'm not changing things around. Yeah, I know Summer Doldrums got beat, but man that race ran nothing like I figured. All those sprinters stretching out and they go 49+ to the half? I'm leaving him up there. Circular Quay stays put too. Perfect trip for a deep closer. He'll make it up and hit the board in the Derby, but I'm saying right now he doesn't win. Looking forward to see if Any Given Saturday can move forward this week before reconsidering the order. He is set to make a big move in my estimation, which mean's he'll probably flop making a complicated mess even worse.....

[OTM Al]

3 1/2 preps this weekend (if you count the one run in California...and you thought I was going to say Sunland....) so time for an update

Top Tier:
Any Given Saturday: He's really growing on me. Best horse in Tampa despite losing by a nose. Lost 3-4 lengths on that turn and still broke a track record. Nice! And I like his name.

No Biz: Blinks could be the answer since they won't give him the snip. It's a reasonable move and if they get him to run straight, then he's very tough

Hard Spun: Still like this guy. Find out next weekend if the Southwest was a fluke or the real thing.....


Tier Two:
Circular Quay: Deep closers are something I avoid like the plague. I like this guy but I just can't see him winning much in the Gr 1 range. Board hitting machine though

Stormello: Two preps keep him here with no possiblity of moving up

Street Sense: See Stormello. See his picture next to the definition of probable bounce candidate. Nice race but just got to wonder how much was taken out of him for his next effort. Of course if he keeps getting those open rail shots he'll be unstoppable

Still Interested:
King of the Roxy: Maybe I just like his name. Maybe I think Pletcher is going to win it this year but for some reason I keep getting the feeling not with the one I think is best....

Ravel: CA just keeps looking worse to me again this year. Only 2 preps also. See what happens in the SA derby but I don't think I'll be biting

Scat Daddy: See King.

Hmmmm......
Sorry Summer Doldrums. You were my local guy but that 107 is now a 94, so you never did run fast enough according to revisionist DRF lore. That's ok. I'll still cheer for you in the Wood, though you're probably going to get buried.

Can I say it again? California has too many preps!!!!! They should only have 1 in March, not 2. Wow, 5 horse graded preps. Deserve to have them both downgraded.

Oaklawn has been the most interesting route the last 3 years but its becoming a yawner this year. Hopefully the AK Derby attracts a few more real runners

Leave you with a thought....after the expressway on the rail at the BC (ok I know a few of you will disagree with me on that point, but read on...) you think trainers will FINALLY prefer inside post positions this year? Then again, the only 1 1/4 race was won from the outside that day....

[the_fat_man]

Top Tier:
Any Given Saturday: He's really growing on me. Best horse in Tampa despite losing by a nose. Lost 3-4 lengths on that turn and still broke a track record. Nice! And I like his name.

Yeah. Notice how Johnny V worked him over alot less in the stretch than he did the mare in the turf stake and certainly SS was ridden harder than they'd have wanted in the stretch. So, either AGS is VERY good --doubtful- OR SS is not as good as some would think. We can add another player off this race: Delightful Kiss --- the longer the better for him.




No Biz: Blinks could be the answer since they won't give him the snip. It's a reasonable move and if they get him to run straight, then he's very tough



NoCOUNT actually needs to win in a race in which he doesn't get everything his own way. Too many excuses (and poor efforts) for what many think is a really good horse


Hard Spun: Still like this guy. Find out next weekend if the Southwest was a fluke or the real thing.....

He definitely ran the best in his previous race BUT why run at TP when the Rebel would've been a better showcase? Even if he wins this weekend, SO WHAT?




Street Sense: See Stormello. See his picture next to the definition of probable bounce candidate. Nice race but just got to wonder how much was taken out of him for his next effort. Of course if he keeps getting those open rail shots he'll be unstoppable

In other words, if it turns out he's NOT AS GOOD as some would think, and the Tampa effort would tend to indicate this, and he doesn't improve off that Tampa effort, we can explain it with the bounce theory. Ok [/QUOTE]


King of the Roxy: Maybe I just like his name. Maybe I think Pletcher is going to win it this year but for some reason I keep getting the feeling not with the one I think is best....
This is a superior horse up to a mile. (allowing for funky speed favoring tracks)



Scat Daddy: See King.

As game as they come.



There's a NEW SHERIFF in town, Al

his name in CURLIN

and he just manhandled a decent field in just his 2nd lifetime start (after running very, very, very greenly first time out)

without even tripping the race, just the above facts alone make his effort the best of this year

[OTM Al]

My response to your response oh Buddha formed one....

AGS is not very good, he's just good, which this year may be good enough. I have little faith in SS, but he did actually surprise me a little. Then again despite Bo-rail's nice ride, that horse was done for at the end. It wasn't AGS so much coming back as the tank running empty on SS. As for this Delightful Kiss equine, I would say probably not. To me, the "the longer the better" arguement is often a visual pipe dream. He never would have got by AGP at 1 1/4 miles or 2.

No Biz's hype really set me against him originally. He has always been wild down the lane and he has never run fast enough to make Derby Par, but then again, no one else has either now that Summer Doldrums has been down graded. We'll see what the blinks do. Can't hurt.....

Hard Spun's running at TP because they claim he didn't like Oaklawn's surface. Often as you know, that's code for he ain't as good as we thought, which is possible. We'll see how he does. If he stinks it up, could be a good betting race.

No. Street Sense could be a legitimate bounce, which doesn't happen near as much as some would have you think. I am a believer in reversion to form. A horse has a certain ability and will sometimes run better and sometimes run worse, but they tend toward a certain level, so often a big score followed by a diminished effort is simply a reversion to form. Call it Al's "the sun don't shine on the same dog's ass everyday" theory. Street Sense however just ran a very quick race and it had to be trying because he hasn't raced in 4 months. I'm looking to see how fast he gets back on the work tab and how quick he goes reletive to what he was doing before, before I call bounce liklihood, but with that effort level with no racing base, its very possible. He didn't have a lot left.

King of the Roxy...yeah, you're probably right, but I still dig his name.

Scat Daddy. Game is a good word for him. Like I said before, he's the one they keep saying can't get the distance and he keeps getting the distance which reminds me of what everyone said about Smarty Jones. He isn't that good, but he's ok. In what looks like a year with no standouts, he could do it. Like I said. I can't wait to see who Johnny V picks to ride. Must suck to be him.

You can have Curlin. I didn't think that was a particularly good race and had a fairly weak field. So few races in him you can say he still has upside, but he's going to be on his 4th lifetime race if he's in the Derby and did not race at 2. No thanks. Just my opinion and I'm often wrong.....

[the_fat_man]

IMO, right now, we're looking at a small pool of possible contenders:

Curlin (suppose the Bluegrass is next -- no reason to think he can't step up off the Rebel effort). You have to look at this one again.

NoBiz (he needs a big effort in the Wood --- I really should just toss him but too many in-the-know types still like him --- but I know what he's about)

AGS (Bluegrass next? when Johnny V does not brutalize a horse in the stretch, it's of significance)

Street Sense (he needs to convince me by improving off the Tampa race -- not exactly a 2 year old champion performance )

Scat Daddy (game as they come)

with

Circular Quay and Delightful Kiss as pick up the pace types -- I know Kiss can get 1 1/4; can the rest? His Tampa race is very good.

haven't included the Cali horse cause they haven't impressed me: Great Hunter is EXTENDED by Sam P --- give me a break. Although, Stormello is very game, I can't see him getting 1 1/4.

[JPinMaryland]

Some very well thought out comments here. I was reading Al's comments for 3/5 thinking they were current and Im wondering why the hell he's still on SD bandwagon, then I realized this was over two weeks ago. But the rest of these comments still make sense after a number of races.

I dont know what I can add, I think Al/Fatman may be missing somewhat on the closers. A Lot of it depends on how the track is playing on that particular day, but if it seems to play fair or more than fair to closers I would have to think about CQ as well as Zanjero assuming he continues to improve. Z does show an improving form and sometimes that is good enough on derby day. I would simply say, dont count out closers on derby day they have come through many times, although which one will do it is always hard to say.

I think there is a tendency to want to throw horses out simply because there are so many intriguing candidates. It's like going to college or a new office building and seeing so many women you start saying "that one's too short" "this one has a bad nose," etc. It's your brain's way of dealing with information overload...Too much information: help!

Something like that. I dont think we can discount SS so readily. Both of those rail trips in his last two were special, it takes a special horse to get through like that. Sure w/ 20 horses in the derby it may not happen and also if the rail is dead on derby day it will not happen, but really have to be leery of tossing out a horse like that...

Probably more prescient comments it that SS looked tired in the gallop out. Maybe that will be key.

Hard Spun's move to poly must be something of a concern is there a foot problem? He obviously didnt fire in the SW stakes, or else we've missed the boat completely on Teuf. and Officer Rocket. How slow is that track there at OP anyhow? I find myself asking the same question last year after Lawyer Ron won all the preps. I guess will find out more soon; guessing he comes back, but just a guess..

Curlin still bearing out a bit, shouldnt this be a concern?

[OTM Al]

Hey JP. Its not that I'm overlooking closers. The best of the lot, Circular Quay will remain entrenched in my rankings, just not to win. I just can't be a fan of closers in a 20 horse field. CQ was getting in trouble with 11 others out there, and this is the problem with closers. Too often they get into trouble because of their style. Unless you think the pace is going to be super hot, which this year I really don't see, then the top closers should be (and will by me) used at the bottom of exotics.

My feelings on closers in general are as follows. Any closer that is commented on as "passed the winner in the gallop out" or "just needs that extra furlong and he would have won" should be thrown out immediately as underlays at whatever price they go off as because that information is bad and too many believe it. In both cases it means only one thing to me, the horse lost. A quality horse will beat his peers (note by peers I mean that group that is targeting TC races, not specialists) at any distance. Afleet Alex 2 years ago could win at 6f and at 12f. Then there was my favorite example, Dynever, who earned quite a bit of money in his career and could finish second at any distance including the 2 miles plus of that race Premium Tap just won in Saudi Arabia (PT won this year when it was reduced to 12f). Maybe if they'd just stretched him out a bit more......His final race was the Dubai WC where of course, he finished second.

[JPinMaryland]

But there's a distinction there that's important. The issue of traffic is always going to be an issue w/ closers; I dont think it as important as you do because good closers seem to find their own way.

But then there's another issue of closers who really need to be running at something, and dont fare well when/if they are clear. Borrego for example seemed to be a good horse to hit the board but unlikely to win much, he finally did win a GI, I guess but he moved much better in pursuit of something. Steppenwolfer might be an example from last year. Fatman would probably cite: Jazil for same thing. I kinda like Jazil...

There's a difference between those kind of closers, you refer to them as ones that "only need a little more distance", etc.; and those that really do close and win. CQ has won he can get clear and keep driving so that's why I would not discount him...

On a related note: I took a look at last weeks races again, and yes Curlin seems to run really well and this only his second race. One thing I would be leery of is he may be a horse that lets up once he's in front. Plenty of horses like that, Gate Dancer, shown on another thread was like that.

Curlin, actually seemed to straighten himself out by himself on the stretch w/o urging. BUt he seemed to sort of tire until the jock (Gomez or ???) tapped him and he dug in. Bailey alluded to this when he said the horse doesnt seem to drift like that except when he's clear of other horses and then he sort of goofs off.

I like him, but Id be worried about him if he makes the lead in a 20 horse field, any one of 6 or 7 horses could rush by him in an instant and he might not be ready to respond...

I would not put too much into Delightful Kiss's third place finish. This was wind aided from what I understand and as he does his best running at the end, his closing ability may be a bit exaggerated due to the tail wind on the home stretch.

[Racer98]

No Biz: Yeah, he is on tier 2 but I don't think that's lasting much longer. Talent may be there, but he is not showing it. Might be a better racer if he got the snip, but that's not going to happen.


Of course not. Too much money involved. Even if he doesn't pan out, they won't do it. They could still breed him and make decent money, or possibly end up with an equally talented horse who's willing to show it.

[OTM Al]

Ring a ding.....finally saw something right about this year. Hard Spun justified to remain on top tier. Curious to see the the speed fig out of that though. Perhaps we crow too early. Yes, yes, I know the rest of the field is sub par, don't think that isn't lost on me. 12.7 sec on the final furlong is not bad compared to what we've seen so far. Not great, but solid. The list stands pat with of course the removal of Ravel. Didn't care for him much anyway. Only intreresting thing in the SA Derby would be if the filly runs as it looks now, though have heard rumbles King of the Roxy may go out there. Sounds like the makings of an exacta to me. Next week we have the Fla Derby and the UAE Derby. Guess which one's winner won't be making this list.......

[JPinMaryland]

12.7 is fine for a front runner or close to the lead type. He's a good horse, the only thing I'd be concerned with is can he really rate or just couldnt go past horses doing 22 and change in the opening quarter? I assume under a normal pace he would take the lead and I dont think he can wire the field in the Ky derby or even hit the board. Still a nice horse. I have not watched this track or know anything about it so I dont know if this is track favors front runners or they can get away with fractions like that or..

[OTM Al]

Still no real reason to change this week....might need to flip flop Scat Daddy and Stormello, or at least put them on the same level. Will need to think on that a bit more though. Should be some good shaking out Saturday.

[the_fat_man]

Still no real reason to change this week....might need to flip flop Scat Daddy and Stormello, or at least put them on the same level. Will need to think on that a bit more though. Should be some good shaking out Saturday.

Well, hold on a second, partner

let's do the 'math':

1) Juvenile ----- SD OVER Stormello

2) FOY ----- SD (nominally) OVER Stormello

3) Florida Derby ---- SD GALLOPING, Stormello SUCKING WIND


Total

SD 3

Stormello ZIPPO


Flip Flop, by all means

[OTM Al]

Beat him 3/4 length in Juvie
Beat him a nose in FOY
Beat him decent only in Fla Derby and then only by 4. Stormello is second off a layoff after exerting in the first. Should be in much better shape next time while Scat Daddy I expect to be right around peak already.

I really see little difference between the 2 now. Stormello doing a little worse than expected and Scat Daddy a little better. Both will be in but I don't see either in the winner's circle anyway.

[the_fat_man]

Beat him 3/4 length in Juvie
Beat him a nose in FOY
Beat him decent only in Fla Derby and then only by 4. Stormello is second off a layoff after exerting in the first. Should be in much better shape next time while Scat Daddy I expect to be right around peak already.

I really see little difference between the 2 now. Stormello doing a little worse than expected and Scat Daddy a little better. Both will be in but I don't see either in the winner's circle anyway.

I think SD beats Stormello just about any time they meet; excepting speed favoring tracks.

They're both game horses. That's why it was kind of disappointing that Stormello quit in the Florida Derby. Certainly thought he was 2nd best going into that race.

[Tom]

My energy figures tell me that at 69+% median energy, niether Stormello nor Adore the Gold are too early for the classic distances of at the triple crown.
I threw both out and used SD alone over three others. I find %med very useful in the triple crown races.

[the_fat_man]

That's interesting cause, apparently, some of the (prominent) fig makers, apparently had Stormello and Adore the Gold running the best races in the FOY. Certainly not SD.

I thought SD ran the best in the FOY and always have thought AtG was a fraud (even though he had a rough trip).

But I also thought that Stormello was loose and would be good enough to hold on for second.

And not thinking much of the rest of the field, since SD was a low price, I took one number: SD over Stormello.

What was interesting in the Florida Derby was that there wasn't a stalker type to soften Stormello up. In the FOY, AtG chased and NoCOUNT provided the bid on the turn, just enough for Stormello to give it up late.

In the Florida Derby, Chelokee SUCKED UP and SD had to play both roles and still won. Speaks volumes as to how bad Notional and Chelokee (perfect trip) are.

[PaceAdvantage]

You really like to taunt folks with the Chelokee "PERFECT TRIP" line, don't you? :lol:

You're just begging for someone to scream at you "WTF are you talking about perfect trip? He took the F*** up at a crucial part of the race while stuck on the rail....."

Then you can come back "You didn't watch the race did you? He was DRAFTING....and that more than makes up for it, dingbat!"

I've got this down cold.

[the_fat_man]

You really like to taunt folks with the Chelokee "PERFECT TRIP" line, don't you? :lol:

You're just begging for someone to scream at you "WTF are you talking about perfect trip? He took the F*** up at a crucial part of the race while stuck on the rail....."

Then you can come back "You didn't watch the race did you? He was DRAFTING....and that more than makes up for it, dingbat!"

I've got this down cold.

Not taunting anyone, Pace.

It's all part of the intricacies and unfairness of the game. Sucks when horses that don't run beat horses that do.

And I had the thread about this horse long before the Florida Derby.

Maybe I saved some people money by pointing it out.

It pains me when people on this forum like/bet horses that I know can't win.
Like Bob and John in the Belmont, for example.

But, you know what it is? Just the way I don't take anything the fig/pace guys write seriously, they disregard my comments as well.

That's life on the forum.

[PaceAdvantage]

I think a lot of folks would beg to differ that Chelokee got a perfect trip in the Fla Derby. That's why I kid when I say you're taunting them.

[Indulto]

PA,
What is it about tfm's bark that makes you want to bite him? You didn't have money on Chelokee to finish first, did you? ;)

Personally, I feel tfm is one of the more positive contributors here to pre and post race analysis. Hopefully, now that DrugS is back, the bike claimer has somebody he considers worthy of debating and we can all enjoy and benefit.

It's only a matter of time before tfm posts an opinion really worth forcing him to add to his caloric intake. :D

[PaceAdvantage]

PA,
What is it about tfm's bark that makes you want to bite him? You didn't have money on Chelokee to finish first, did you? ;)

Nope, no money on Chelokee....I actually had Scat Daddy....but that's besides the point.

With regards to Chelokee, I don't see how anyone can say he had a perfect trip. Yeah, he had a dream trip until it was actually time to put in some real running. At that crucial point, the hole closed up on him, he had to take up and swing outside of horses, where he reinstituted his run....

How can any sane trip handicapper state Chelokee had a PERFECT TRIP? Since when is getting shut off and having your momemtum silenced at the most crucial point in the race a PERFECT TRIP?

INDULTO: Where is it written that every time I engage someone in a little debate it means I don't like them? Where do you get that I might think that TFM is NOT a positive contributor overall?

[Indulto]

... INDULTO: Where is it written that every time I engage someone in a little debate it means I don't like them? Where do you get that I might think that TFM is NOT a positive contributor overall?Now, PA, did I EVER say that you thought tfm was NOT a positive contributor or that you didn't like any particular poster? Once your paranoia passes, the problem to ponder is:

Nobody dares to draw down on Marshall Dillon. ;)

By inhibiting our FAT friend's ability to bring the full force of his corpulent competence to bear and engage us (or engulf us) with his entertaining expertise, you run the risk of reducing him to a mere shadow of his creative genius. You should think of him as the Orson Wells of trip handicapping.:lol:

[OTM Al]

2 not good signs in the news today

Circular Quay training up to the Derby, Any Given Saturday will take his place in the Wood. His use on the lower rungs of the exotics looking better and better....

Hard Spun's trainer was considering bypassing Bluegrass and training straight to Derby, and maybe skipping that as well. WTF time. Might go back to plan with one of the big ones now shifting out of the Bluegrass, but that is just my thought.

[PaceAdvantage]

Now, PA, did I EVER say that you thought tfm was NOT a positive contributor or that you didn't like any particular poster? Once your paranoia passes, the problem to ponder is:

Nobody dares to draw down on Marshall Dillon. ;)

Good to see we're on the same page. And stop with the labels.

[the_fat_man]

Nope, no money on Chelokee....I actually had Scat Daddy....but that's besides the point.



Man, that's interesting. I could've sworn that I saw your pics for AQU and GP for this past Saturday and you had Chelokee on top.

I was just looking for them and couldn't find them.

No wonder I can't trip.

And, on that 'other forum' they've got a thread devoted to Chelokee and his successive BAD trips. They're sacrificing oxen to the gods in the hope that he gets into the derby. Sure hope those bad trips don't come in 3's (or 4's).

And, there are also a few over there who think that Bold Start got the worst of it last time out as well. They're gonna send it in in the Illinois Derby.

[OTM Al]

Personally, I hope Chelokee gets in and lots of people bet on him because he's not going to win. Good but not good enough. Not even close.

I am really losing the last vestiges of my faith in Hard Spun. Any Given Saturday now out of the Bluegrass and they are still waivering about him racing there...or even in the Derby itself. I personally love responsible training and not pushing a horse into something that is out of his element is admirable, as was done with Lost in the Fog two years ago. However, a horse that was an identified contender who's goal all along was to get there is now wavering inspires no faith. We shall see what happens in the next week.

I still think Circular Quay is a must use on the bottom rungs of the tri and super because of the quality he has shown and his racing style but I simply can't believe that a developing horse will be in race shape after that long a layoff and he will not have even run at 1 1/8 miles. I know in another thread people have cited Medaglio de Oro and Invasor as having won at 10f after long layoffs. However, there is one big difference. Those were mature horses who had already been there and done that. It matters.

[JPinMaryland]

Speaking of CQ, are there any other deep closers that have any shot in the derby? I havent really thought much about this, but I guess Zanjero and Ketchikan are deep closer? NOt sure if they have any chance though.

It strikes me that if CQ is the only good deep closer out there, he might have a better shot than people think. THat and of course you have to pay attention to the way the track is playing on derby day.

Usually about this time of year, someone has made a list of horses by running type. Any thoughts on who the possible deep closers are?

[OTM Al]

CQ would be the only good deep closer, (Birdbird I would also call a deep closer and certainly can run on his earnings, but I wouldn't call him good). Others I would call closers include Great Hunter, Notional, Street Sense and Zanjenero. I would call at least 2 of them good. This is based only on Pool 2 PPs that I could look quickly at, so can't say for certain at the moment about Ketchikan

[JPinMaryland]

Yeah, Birdbird. Definite deep closer, definite toss. I happen to watch him in that Delta Jackpot race or whatever it was where he won the $600,000 last fall. Somehow found it still on my video tape.

Two things stand out. He's out there in front all alone and then he starts drifting in, he's not focused once he was out there all alone. The other is that the runner up (Pirates Deputy or Xchanger or??) was slowly getting to him. That's not really what you want to see in your closer is it? That he isnt the fastest horse at the end of the race?

This is one thing that I think you use that is not found in numbers. There are horses that simply arent able to maintain a lead. They can win a race, if they time the move right or if other horses just stop. But they cant stay in front for any lenght of time w/o doing something goofty. This can be a very profitable angle to separate a horse that can hit the board but is not likely to win.

Also found my old tape of Smarty Jones Derby.

Guess who Hammerin Hank's pick was?

[OTM Al]

Just watched it again on YouTube. No Hank pick though but it reminded me who else was in the field. I would guess he went with someone like Tapit.

[JPinMaryland]

No but Tapit is a good guess. Tapit seemed to be the internet wise guy horse.

Hank's horse possibly even worse: Borrego.

What did you think of the BIrdbird replay? Is he looking toward the rail or just drifting in that way? I dont think the jock is doing anything.

[PaceAdvantage]

Man, that's interesting. I could've sworn that I saw your pics for AQU and GP for this past Saturday and you had Chelokee on top.

You are right. Scat Daddy was my second choice....both were listed on that page.....

I have a habit of betting my top two picks, which is something I am trying to break....

I never said Scat Daddy was my top pick....just that I had him....

[PaceAdvantage]

No wonder I can't trip.

You honestly stand by the statement that Chelokee had a "PERFECT TRIP?"

[the_fat_man]

You honestly stand by the statement that Chelokee had a "PERFECT TRIP?"

Pace, the horse was INSIDE the entire race, and sucked along, not bidding UNTIL AFTER SD and Notional had run.

Look at the race. The two speeds collapsed. The chasers ran 1-2-3

and nothing gained from the back.

Of the 3 chasers, Chelokee had the easiest trip.

Even if he gets through on the rail, do you think he gets 2nd? Certainly not 1st. He looks good on the headon late because he wasn't used up that point.

SD handled him as easily as King of the Roxy handled the suckup Bold Start in that 7 1/2 F race a few weeks ago. And that, should be distressing to anyone who thinks this horse is anything.

[OTM Al]

What a wonderful weekend of action for so many reasons!!!! I will explain

Top Tier:
Any Given Saturday: I think holding his 3rd in the Wood against him may be a mistake, so I am leaving him here. Another rough trip, though 2 in a row makes warning lights go off. Not a pattern yet, but one does seem to be emerging. I think he is still quality and look for him to be in solid in the Derby. His 3rd in the Wood will only help his price. Secretariat finished 3rd in the Wood as well and while this guy is no Secretariat he still runs with the top level of this years crop

No Biz: Blinks were the answer as he kept to task. Still kinda slow though. This is the biggest concern. He is a magnificent looking animal.

Hard Spun: Going to leave him here until we hear what happens with his work. This guy is just as good as any of the other bigs, so I'm really lost on what's going on here. Big downgrade if he just trains up to Derby.

Tier Two:
Circular Quay: Deep closers are something I avoid like the plague. I like this guy but I just can't see him winning much in the Gr 1 range. Board hitting machine though. Still a must use on the bottom rungs despite long layoff.

Stormello: Still believe there is quality here. Just wish there was a third prep to prove or disprove.

Street Sense: Would be worth it to see him win just to stop talk of the jinx (see Red Sox, Boston, 2004)

Scat Daddy: He made me do it. I still think he spits the bit at the furlong pole, but does seem to have the desire to win.

Still has my interest:

Great Hunter: Only one of you left here now. Going to be a good race saturday. A horse that had/has quality. I'll give him a shot.

Wouldn't touch them with your money

Cowtown Cat: In a year of slow preps, his was SSSSSSLLLLLLLLOOOOOOOOOOOWWWWWWWWWWWWWW. 1:38 to the mile doesn't get it done. The derby winner is about 20 lengths ahead at this point and you ain't catching him. Nothing comes out of this race and Cobalt Blue's bomb just proves how bad that CA prep was. He's a Pletcher though, so he'll draw money. I thank him.

Tiago: Can I tell you how much I love this horse? I love him soooooo much. Label him equine interest story #1. Dumb money will be sending it in on him come Derby day. "He's Giacomo's brother!" (this will be pronounced GEE-UH-COMO BTW). "He's got the same jockey and trainer and owner and Giacomo" (see above for continued pronunciation problems). AND it appears he got a triple digit Beyer (100 even) for his SA derby, which was probably souped up to rocket strip conditionsif past years are any guide. I love you Tiago! I want to pet you and feed you oatmeal cookies. I will not bet a dime on you but you are my favorite 3yo this year!

Curlin: This is a premptive strike. I don't think he's going to be good enough either. What he's done so far has been impressive but still think its too little too late. He does have another race though, so he can make it on one of my tickets with a good showing, but really don't expect it.

Chelokee: Label him equine interest story #2. "It's Barbaro's trainer!" (this would be pronounced BAH-BEAR-OH by similar blue haired ladies and 6 pack touts as above). I wish him well. I made good money on him in his NW1X score. I hope he gets in to be another source of money drain. No shot.

Whoever Lauren Stitch picks: Lauren, I like your columns. Gives a sense of history, which I love. But using pedigree handicapping for anything past first or second lifetime or first on a new surface holds little value to me.

[NYPlayer]

Street Sense: Would be worth it to see him win just to stop talk of the jinx (see Red Sox, Boston, 2004)


The more I see from the other Derby Hopefuls, the more I like my future bet on Street Sense. He's really the only horse in the Bluegrass now, and should move on to the Derby with no trouble. I still don' t think he's shown best stuff yet, but I'm keeping my fingers crossed anyway. I've gotta say, I'm absolutely loving this Derby season! I don't think I've ever been this excited about a horse before, and this is Derby number 12 for me as a handicapper.

Good luck to the rest, but I say they're running for 2nd.:cool:

[OTM Al]

Looks like a definite on Hard Spun out of the Blue Grass and maybe even the Derby itself. The trainer's quote

“Sunday after the Derby, you’re going to be reading where 10 trainers say their horse didn’t handle the track,” Jones said Monday. “We don’t want to be one of those…. If we have to pass the Derby, we just have to pass it.”

Uh....what? This sounds like the Homer Simpson School of thought when Homer prophetically said, "Kids, you tried your best and you failed miserably. The lesson is, never try."

Sounds like he's trying to create a breeding prospect rather than a race horse. I liked you Hard Spun, but you are out of my top tier as of now.

Scat Daddy just got your spot

[OTM Al]

Well, we've seen the last big weekend and while we may get a last chancer out of the Lexington (hey Love Dubai, one more shot!!!!) I think our field is pretty well set barring defection due to injury. Sorry Notional, but you weren't going to win anyway. Get better. Have a cookie or two on me. So this is what I have going forward. The top ones are pretty close together, but this is how I feel it shakes out.

Top Tier:
#1 Any Given Saturday: I really like this guy and think he'll be a solid price as well. The third in the Wood was still a solid race and will only help beef up that price.

#2 Street Sense: Actually #1A. I'm sold now. I tried to hold off, but this guy may be the best of the lot in the end. Only reason he's not #1 is his bad reaction to not getting the rail. Both of these will be ON TOP on all main tickets.

Tier 2:
#3 Nobiz: Solid, but unspectacular. He'll be in the mix, but the top 2 are just a bit better.

#4 Scat Daddy: I love his toughness, but I think he fades in the lane at 10f

#5 Hard Spun: He's as fast as the top two and should be fine at the distance, but this kid glove behavior bothers me. I've liked him for a long time though, so I will have to get a saver with him on top, but only underneath on the main tickets

#6 Circular Quay: Only here because I still believe as the top deep closer he is a must use on the bottom rungs.

Still slightly interesting
Dominican: Nice job by this guy. His price will probably be bad, but might be worth still using underneath

Stormello: Just because. Will use as a saver underneath as well as he's another I liked early and would hate to get burned because I changed my mind.

Not interested:
Tiago: My favorite derby day horse!!! He will pull down the bucks. He will give good prices on better horses. He is my hero.

Chelokee: Probably doesn't get in, but I'm still hoping he does for the same reason as Tiago

Cowtown Cat: S-L-O-W. Pletcher horse, so he'll take more money than he should, which isn't much in the first place.

Curlin: Almost knee jerked into giving him a break, but I don't think so. Kinda fast, but not fast enough. When the big ones look him in the eye, he'll break. He fades right before Scat Daddy. Goint to take waaaaayyyyyy too much money for a horse with only 3 races in him. Can he do it? Yes, any of these potentially could, but I really doubt it. My all unseeing eye predicts a 10th or worse finish.

So that's it. Main bet for the day will only be an exacta (though I will build a couple tris and a cheap super plus will roll with P3, P4. Its Derby Day for gods sake) Going to even box it cause I like the top two and think they are pretty even.

Will wait for the field to be announced and posts drawn for final fine tuning. I think the post draw will be even much more important this year than usual because of no absolute standouts.

[OTM Al]

So we have reached the end. Here's my post by post rundown

1. Sedgefield: Racing in the derby belonging to the wrong Commonwealth. That is the Commonwealth of Virginia's Derby where you should be, not in the Commonwealth of Kentucky. (Trivia question...can you name the other 2 commonwealths in the US that we have generically referred to as states?). Pass.

2. Curlin: Despite the 16th post draw he gets a good post, despite the so called common wisdom. It tempts me to use him, but you have to take a stand and mine has to be against. Too much, too quick for what looks to be a talented colt. I think he runs well early but when the grinding starts, he falls out. Predicting a 10th or worse finish.

3. Zanjero: May be the wise guy horse. I hate wise guy horses. Board hitting machine in every effort after the first, but just not that fast. Pass.

4. Storm in May: Like Pollard's Vision he has but one working eye. (HE'S BLAHND IN ONE EYE!) Like Pollard's Vision, he will probably strike the front early. Equally like Pollard's vision he'll end up around #17. Pass.

5. Inawildandcrazyguy: ImeligibleforaNW2X. Pass

6. Cowtown Cat: I hate to say it, but he tempted me for about a 10th of a second, but then sense came to me. He is not fast enough to be on the pace as his style dictates and hang on for the distance. He burns at the 1/4 pole and falls back around #7

7. Street Sense: Two words. ON TOP. It took me a while to come around and I still don't like the 2 preps but his two other races on this strip were pretty good and one of those was under the rocketship track conditions that seem to frequent big days at Churchill.

8. Hard Spun: Again, hate the 2 preps, but the draw is good and he's built for this trip. His races have been evenly spaced and consistant and he is fast. He needs to sit in the second flight. Will finish well as long as he doesn't get sucked in by the pure early types. He will be used mostly underneath, but will use him on top for a couple savers.

9. Liquidity: A real disapointment this year. Pass.

10. Teuflesburg: The most experienced of the lot with 15 career starts. A solid horse who will earn money in his life, just not today. Should be running with Storm in May early and will probably last a little longer before being inhaled by the field. Pass.

11. Bwana Bull: Why? Pass.

12. Nobiz Like Showbiz: He grinds. Never out of the money. You know exactly what he will give you and I expect he will give his owners a check. A must use underneath, though I will not use him for the win.

13. Sam P.: Lost to a sprinter and Tiago in the SA Derby. Pass.

14. Scat Daddy: Another real grinder. The only multiple Gr 1 winner in the field. Must be used, though again like Nobiz, I will only use him underneath.

15. Tiago: My favorite horse this year because he will be a black hole for dumb money. Put this in perspective. He has only raced 4 times and the only race he actually finished first in is the SA Derby. He's not even as good as his half brother. No thanks. Pass

16. Circular Quay: He is the best deep closer in the lot, but I hate deep closers. Because of his style and build, the layoff doesn't bother me as much as it would if he had to be on the lead. Will use on bottom of exotics.

17. Stormello: I really liked this guy coming into the year, but think he might be best at around 1 mile. He will be right on the lead and he will fry. Trying to rate him will not work in this environment. May use him underneath because of back class, but beginning to lean even against that.

18. Any Given Saturday: Never out of the money and one of only 3 multiple 3 digit Beyer earners. I really like him but I really hate the post. His big trouble has been caused when he had to go wide and guess where he's going to be stuck again most likely. Going to still use him on top for a couple savers, but he will see a lot of 2nd and 3rd on my tickets.

19. Dominican: Going to be another wise guy horse. Think I'll be passing here as well.

20. Great Hunter: Way outside and will have to close as is along the lines of his style. He's done well in high quality evens but just look at his running line to see how many times he's had trouble. His only win this year came when he was able to avoid trouble, so don't like his chances in a 20 horse field. If odds are high enough, may plug him in on a couple at the bottom rungs though.

So to sum up in order of liking:

Win candidates: Street Sense, Hard Spun, Any Given Saturday
Must use underneath: Scat Daddy, Nobiz, Circular Quay
Might toss in: Great Hunter, Stormello

The thing that scares me is I agree with Watchmaker and Beyer wayyyyyy more than usual this year. Well, they are bound to get it right eventually too :)

[JPinMaryland]

I think I will try the same format as AL. Although I will disagree w/ Al in places, I like his comments, his style and much of his analysis is right on. So this is not to supplant Al's but merely to supplement it:


1. Sedgefield: Toss. I just dont see him and it's not a good PP unless you have tactical speed, he should pushed back early and dont see him making any move. Willing to rethink

2. Curlin: Use in all spots. I cant find any tangible reason to throw him out, he's got enuf tactical speed coming from the 2 hole. If he doesnt make the lead it's probably fine. So long as he doesnt get boxed in here. Had a problem bearing out earlier but that seems fixed. No reason to think there's a physical problem or something.

3. Zanjero: Use in bottom spots. He is running fast enough as a closer to be likely to get 10f ; a mistake to leave out of exotics, but dont expect him to win. He doesnt seem to have much inclination to pass horses in the stretch.

4. Storm in May: Toss I guess, dont see why anyone likes him.

5. Inawildandcrazyguy: a poor closer. Something real odd would have to happen for this horse to hit. May want to consider for bottom spot as the price will be right but probably a waste.

6. Cowtown Cat: Still considering, will definitely face front end pressure should he make the lead or even if he's close. May play underneath, need to rethink.

7. Street Sense: He should make run at them, and a lot of this depends on how the track is playing, often enuf the stretch plays better to the outside paths. Appears that others have caught up to him, another knock seems to be that he's a one run closer who might not be able to last the entire stretch run here. Probably use underneath, may toss from the top..

8. Hard Spun: Al says he will use him on top as a saver, which maybe a good thing to do. I can see him winning but I can also seem him getting sucked in on the front end and not hitting the board. Probably a mistake to toss, his only loss was actually a pretty good effort against the bias at OP, but then again how super can he be?

9. Liquidity: Toss

10. Teuflesburg: Dont see his front running style being of any benefit in this field given that he always fumbles the break! Toss.

11. Bwana Bull: Probably in way over his head, Toss.

12. Nobiz Like Showbiz: I dont see how he can get 10f. Sorry Nobiz fans, he comes home way too slow to suggest he can get 10f. Willing to toss fro the moment, may reconsider this.

13. Sam P.: probably not totally dead in the water the SA track might have a little off. Will consider in the bottom of exotics, at his price you will kill yourself if he fills out an exotic.

14. Scat Daddy: Will probably have to use, it's too obvious if you get burned by this horse. Not sure his stalk and pounce running style is ideal for derby but this horse is serious. Using at the moment, may rethink.

15. Tiago: "Hey AL" he would have won that maiden if hadnt been carried like 10w. This horse is faster than Giacomo, and better. Okay even Sedgfields better than Giacomo but: LEAVE THIS HORSE OUT AT YOUR OWN PERIL! Final fraction a bit deceiving as he run a monster second 1/2 mile at SA. Real nice running style of 24s across the board, I dont know if the Beyer figs say it, but the stopwatch says his style is idea.


16. Circular Quay: Al sez "He is the best deep closer in the lot, but I hate deep closers." Why would you hate a deep closer in the derby? History says otherwise, recent history maybe not so much. Depends on how you view history, and maybe how the track is running. Layoff is odd, but horse seems to be training throughout and he always fires. Definitely using, wait to see how track is running on final commitment.

17. Stormello: How does he get 10f? Running style and fractions say otherwise. Willing to toss completely.

18. Any Given Saturday: I think Al's comment are pretty spot on. The only thing to add is that this horse seems to shy away in a duel. That raising his head up thing in the TB dby not a good sign. THink he gets hung out wide and then hangs. May use underneath, still considering.


19. Dominican: Tempted to toss but this horse is coming on strong of late. "Poly track specialist" is ill considered knock. How do you toss the horse just beat your fav. last out, Al? Willing to use somehow

20. Great Hunter: Horse doesnt seem to be running as well as last year, probably not a good sign. May use underneath, PP may justify tossing.

So to sum up in order of liking:

Al's win candidates: 7, 8, 18
JP's win candidats: 2, 8, 15, 16

Al's Must use underneath: 12, 14, 16
JP's underneath 2, 3, 7, 14, 15, 16,


Al Might toss in: 17, 20
JP maybe find a way to play: 12,13, 18, 19

[the_fat_man]

4. Storm in May: Like Pollard's Vision he has but one working eye. (HE'S BLAHND IN ONE EYE!) Like Pollard's Vision, he will probably strike the front early. Equally like Pollard's vision he'll end up around #17. Pass.



I don't know why you think this horse will be there early, AL.

The one eye fact is an interesting tidbit.

Having watched this horse WIPE OUT Flying First Class at the break in the Arkansas Derby (Deadly Dealer finished up the mauling in the stretch)

I'm intrigued by the fact that he breaks 2 outside Curlin.

He broke IN sharply in the AD and in 2 of his 3 prior races (to that point) broke slightly out. So, there's a reasonable chance that this horse will cause gate problems. If he slams into Zanjero, Curlin will surely be affected.
And the catastrophe theorists will have their way and Curlin will FIND TROUBLE for the first time in his short career.

[JPinMaryland]

Gate problems not to be overlooked. StorminMay wiped out half the field in that one.

Like 2 years ago, when Barbaro broke inward, predictably, and wiped out Bob and John, I think, who always found trouble anyway. Some of these sort of gate problems are predictable.

[OTM Al]

Excellent! Just the kind of discussion I was looking for, so I will respond to your questions as I really don't feel much like doing work righ now ;)

Your comment about Hard Spun is the one reason I won't play him harder on top. I'm afraid he might get sucked in to a hot pace and die in the stretch. If he does not, he will be very dangerous.

The reason you give for Nobiz is the reason I won't take him for win, but I think he has plenty to hit the board at 10f. He always gives a solid effort and that is much more than most of these.

If Sam P. beats me, so be it. I just don't see it.

Tiago would rate better than me if I thought we would have a white hot pace ala the race his brother won. I do not see that as the case this year. The KD pace has been of late at the least honest if not insane on the front end. I see it this year as warm, but not fast enough. BTW, OJ Simpson has evidently picked this one to win according to Dan Patrick on ESPN radio. I'm not sure what that really means though.....

CQ: I hate deep closers because they find trouble, especially in 20 horse fields. These guys are all too close together talentwise and are not going to be strung out to be picked off one by one Chinese action film wise. As a deep closer though I like him more than Tiago and Johnny V had the choice of 5 pretty good horses and took this one.

I can toss Dominican because that Bluegrass race was a farce. I actually liked SS better after that race than before because he was running back from a tough race and still nearly won that thing. I'm not saying he's a bad horse, and You are right, If I actually do start wavering back to using Stormello, I should slap myself and use this guy instead.

For the sake of technicality, I would use SS and AGS in all spots, but because of the afore mentioned reason, I think Hard Spun will be all or nothing, so I think he is not worth using below 2nd.

[JPinMaryland]

Yeah I think Hard Spun as all or nothing is reasonable.

Why do closers find more trouble? What is more difficult to overcome: a closer finding early trouble or a front runnner? What is more difficult to overcome a difficult post for a closer or a front runner? Plus: CQ seems to come from the outside and has some agility, what about that move he made in the Risen Star to avoid SlewsTizzy? People use that race against him, hell they ought to check out his agility and use it for him.

THere are plenty of front runners who find trouble as well. Just look at Wheelaway and the 2000 derby, or Candy Spots in 1963 or 1975 derby, Monarcho derby too, I think. I may go through all the derby notes and just post a history of trouble at the derby, it hurts front runners as much if not more. They cant recover from being blindsided.

NoBiz is certainly as game as they come. I wont stop anybody from betting him, just those final fractions say he cannot get 10f.

Tiago doesnt need a total melt down, his fractions are very steady 24-24-24 that is just what you want in a horse going 10f for the first (and only?) time. He's one of the few horses in this race that look like they can do that, in a race with mediocrity, (supposedly) you might want to look for someone very steady and unspectacular.

You can toss Dominican I cant fault anybody for that, but if you are looking for game horses, this is one. Also probably need to review his 2year old season to see if anything more can be discerned about dirt form. What sort of running style is he anyways? He's not a deep closer is he??

No idea why you are keeping Stormello, he seems autotoss to me.

[the_fat_man]

NoBiz is certainly as game as they come. I wont stop anybody from betting him, just those final fractions say he cannot get 10f.

Tiago doesnt need a total melt down, his fractions are very steady 24-24-24 that is just what you want in a horse going 10f for the first (and only?) time. He's one of the few horses in this race that look like they can do that, in a race with mediocrity, (supposedly) you might want to look for someone very steady and unspectacular.

You can toss Dominican I cant fault anybody for that, but if you are looking for game horses, this is one. Also probably need to review his 2year old season to see if anything more can be discerned about dirt form. What sort of running style is he anyways? He's not a deep closer is he??


Why exactly is Dominican 'GAME'? Let's take a closer look. In a paceless race, a bunch of horses enter the stretch with a clear run. Midstretch, the pacesetter comes out sharply and repeatedly impedes the progress of 2 of those horses. So much so, that they're thrown off stride and finish the race LEFTY. Dominican, had no trouble, didn't alter stride or path and was ALL OUT to pass one of those 2 horses. In a fair shapeup, SS pisses on Domincan EVERYTIME, and Dominican is all out to compete with the gutless POOR HUNTER. Give me a break. Just because the numbers people 'liked' Dominican in the Bluegrass, it doesn't mean that we actually have to overlook the fact that he was FLAT OUT LUCKY to win.

Ditto for Tiago: if RIDE-EM-WIDE-AT-ALL-COST Migliore isn't on KOTR, Tiago is a badly beaten 2nd --- which is about his ability level. So he's proabably better than Sam P, assuming he gets the setup; WOW. It would be hard to believe that there isn't a single game horse in the Derby. That's the only way Tiago wins.

And, of all the horses that need everything to fall precisely in place in order to win, NOCOUNT is at the very top of the list.

[Indulto]

OA,
Your analyses are both fascinating and funny, and your tier dropping mirrors my own approach.

Tier 1
7 – Street Sense – 12th by 11 to 1st by 10 when it counted at CD
Tier 2
12 - Nobiz Like Shobiz – Body of 4YO, mind of a …
14 - Scat Daddy – Where there’s a will there’s a way
Tier 3
2 – Curlin – What you haven’t seen yet can hurt you
15 – Tiago – Improving broken-field closer on speed-favoring track
16 – Circular Quay –Johnny/Cordero’s pick of Pletcher prospects
Tier 4
19 – Dominican – Synthetic surface specialist and dirt doubtable dilemma
20 - Great Hunter – SA graded prep winner and Bluegrass survivor
3 – Zanjero – bridesmaid with a kick
Tier 5
8 - Hard Spun – Too much media ‘capper support to ignore
1 – Sedgefield – Improving turf-to-poly-to-dirt experiment
18 - Any Given Saturday – Johnny-went-lately after two races too tough
17 – Stormello – Grass wasn’t greener in Florida; better when fresher
Tier 6
6 - Cowtown Cat – Only beat cow-pies
9 –Liquidity – Another mental case in a great body
Tier 7
13 - Sam P – Blinkers on/blinkers off; either way, too many have beaten
10 – Teufelsberg – Just because you can doesn’t mean you should.
Tier 8
11 - Bwana Bull – Bwana Bet?
5 – Imawildandcrazyguy – Horse or connections?
2 - Storm In May – Fortune Cookie: Sprinter who like contact better bet in NFL

[JPinMaryland]

Dominican is game because has won three races in a row. I didnt say he was faster, but he is trying. As you said he was all out to win. Soooooo, he must be trying hard...

Tiago wins that race easily if they have to go another 1/8. KoTR could barely hang on for 9f he wasnt getting 10. Tiago fractions are just what you want that's why he's hard to pass. Yeah the west coast has poor fields, perhaps SA is faster, perhaps he doesnt win with a different ride, etc. But his fractional times are just too obvious to ignore.

[Robert Fischer]

1. Sedgefield: Toss.

2. Curlin: maybe use in tri or super

3. Zanjero: 3rd and 4th didn't initially like his pedigree but it actually has some stamina and his running style and form say underneath is a good possibility if he can get a good ride. 3rd and 4th, expensive yearling.

4. Storm in May: Toss

5. Inawildandcrazyguy: toss - this guy should be winning ungraded stakes right now at 8.5 furlongs

6. Cowtown Cat: Toss

7. Street Sense: 1st BC Juve was the best race on anyone's PPs... Other than that is up there in the top 10 races with the Tampa. Has a great style and a great pedigree and tough jockey who has been his personal jockey throughout. Probably the highest win and ITM probabilities.

8. Hard Spun: 1st Nice looking horse brought along gradually. High cruising speed, big Danzig with speed. He needs to fly out of the gate and get in perfect early position. Strong 3 furlong bullet should have him ready.

9. Liquidity: MAYBE for use in the super, blinkers off, for a trainer that can't ship, expensive well bred horse but looks average

10. Teuflesburg: Toss

11. Bwana Bull: Toss.

12. Nobiz Like Showbiz: 2-4th Big beautiful horse. His worst races in the past 4 are better than others worst. ;) Turning point in form wired the Holybull at a mile then got sucked into Stormello's pace in the FOY and tired like the rest of them. Blinks on but actually came home better in the Wood , will need to get a clean break, preferably behind some horses when he settles forcing him to rate. Wants the lead at the top of the stretch nice pedigree.

13. Sam P.: 3rd,4th Blinkers off after racing in SA w/ blinks and then working w/ blinks. Dominguez rides horse with good cruising speed. Came home pretty well in the Robert Lewis behind Great Hunter. Needs a speed favoring race.

14. Scat Daddy: 3rd, 4th Workman-like style, prado will sit a nice trip, distance a question.


15. Tiago: 2-4th SA Derby was a strong performance for this improving horse. Mike Smith has been riding his ass off, Tiago is going to have to manuever through traffic. Has some speed as well as a solid stamina pedigree.

16. Circular Quay:2-4th favorite horse of the Tabors and gets Pletcher's top jockey, has done nothing wrong, professional extremely classy horse who may not have been born a derby winner/

17. Stormello: Toss

18. Any Given Saturday: Toss

19. Dominican: Toss - a versatile horse that handles all surfaces. Really fits well at a turf mile, can't get 10 furlongs at an honest pace with any type of winning bid. He will outclass horses at turfway or may seem like a surface specialist when racing against dirt horses on a synthetic track. Slow pace helped Dominican kick late in the 9 furlong bluegrass.

20. Great Hunter: 4th - close to being a toss from the O'neil barn , steady running style can continue to pass horses, Nakatani will need to deliver a patient ride to get this one up 4th or 5th.

[the_fat_man]

1. Sedgefield: Toss.

2. Curlin: maybe use in tri or super

4. Storm in May: Toss

8. Hard Spun: 1st Nice looking horse brought along gradually. High cruising speed, big Danzig with speed. He needs to fly out of the gate and get in perfect early position. Strong 3 furlong bullet should have him ready.

12. Nobiz Like Showbiz: 2-4th Big beautiful horse. His worst races in the past 4 are better than others worst. ;) Turning point in form wired the Holybull at a mile then got sucked into Stormello's pace in the FOY and tired like the rest of them. Blinks on but actually came home better in the Wood , will need to get a clean break, preferably behind some horses when he settles forcing him to rate. Wants the lead at the top of the stretch nice pedigree.

14. Scat Daddy: 3rd, 4th Workman-like style, prado will sit a nice trip, distance a question.

15. Tiago: 2-4th SA Derby was a strong performance for this improving horse. Mike Smith has been riding his ass off, Tiago is going to have to manuever through traffic. Has some speed as well as a solid stamina pedigree.

18. Any Given Saturday: Toss




1. Sedgefield: last time he got a good trip (as in, NOT RUSHED and WIDE), Moby Dick was a MINNOW

2. Curlin: bet him or don't bet the race. Interesting to see how he reacts to having to run on the inside.

4. Storm in May: Only horse to gain (significantly) 4th qtr with Curlin in AD. (COuld wipe Curlin out at the gate, however.)

7. Street Sense: watching this horse get knocked off stride and lead in the Bluegrass, and recover the way he did to almost win the race, when Poor Hunter gave it up, points to his incredible athleticism and gameness.

8. Hard Spun: will have good position but Curlin will also and he's more athletic/better.

12. NoBiz: bent over BIGTIME by an allowance horse even though the was on the BIASED part of the track --- so he ran straight for the first time in his life, so what.

14. Scat Daddy: gamest of the bunch and now continues to enjoy being ridden by a patient, and intelligent jock

15. Tiago: if he repeats his run in the SA Derby he'll be the best of the closers ---so, Steppenwolfer or Jazil cause there are too many good middle running horses for him to pass --- IOW, the race is NOT COLLAPSING.

18. AGS: every bit as good as NoCount but replacing MR WIDE with MR WIDEST is not much help (the only way it would be worse is if THE MIG was on)

[sevenall]

I can toss Dominican because that Bluegrass race was a farce.

We'll all agree that the pace was a farce...but how the hell did Dominican come from off of the slow pace and catch the front runners who were sprinting home.

Ultimately, he had to veer around everyone and he lost momentum when Street Sense shifted out...and he still caught him.

If this was a turf race, you would hardly ever see an off pacer catch the leaders with slow of a pace...

[JPinMaryland]

Ultimately, he had to veer around everyone and he lost momentum when Street Sense shifted out...and he still caught him.

...

You better tell that to the fatman who doesnt seem to think that Dominican had to do this. Hurry before he bets his fat ass off on SS :lol:

[the_fat_man]

You better tell that to the fatman who doesnt seem to think that Dominican had to do this. Hurry before he bets his fat ass off on SS :lol:

both of you really need to watch the race

Dominican hardly breaks stride

there's a difference between a check/slight swing around

and

being forced to change leads when in full stride

GH got the worst of it but the fact that SS almost won the race speaks to his athleticism and gameness.

[JPinMaryland]

NO, no, what you said was:

"Dominican, had no trouble, didn't alter stride or path..."

He did alter his path, if not his stride.

[sevenall]

Dominican did alter his path....but I felt that the more impressive thing he did was to outkick everyone else after laying off of that slow pace...

Fatman- how did he do that?

[the_fat_man]

Dominican did alter his path....but I felt that the more impressive thing he did was to outkick everyone else after laying off of that slow pace...

Fatman- how did he do that?

his path altering was not of the caliber that SS and SH endured.

once again, there's a difference between a quick shift around horses and being knocked off stride,

SS LOST MOMENTUM and continued, SH lost MOMENTUM and GAVE UP

both were FORCED to switch from RIGHTY to LEFTY lead

you could argue that SS had enough strides LEFTY to not have an excuse

but I'm not sure that that he had enough time to recover

using a track bike analogy: when you're spinning at a high level, losing rhythm and thus cadence and then having to sharply increase your cadence again is ridiculously hard

if you watch the headon you can see Borel panic and go to the whip rapid fire when SS is forced off his lead

how did Dominican do it: when there's a cavalry charge late in a race, the last mover typically gets up ----especially if there's significantly more trouble for those ahead of him

[OTM Al]

Ahhh so sweet. The day after the derby and I bask in the glow of a very full wallet....

Haven't watched a good replay yet and only saw the NBC telecast and had had a few beers by that point having escaped the local OTB before the 9th and absolute sillieness erupted, so I can only comment on the top 3

Street Sense: The best horse wins more often than not in the Derby. He got his standard ride. He won. Nice horse and thank god we don't have to hear about that stupid jinx anymore.

Hard Spun: Monster race. I was very upset when I saw him on the lead and doing a 46 on the half, yet he kept going and going. BIG threat in the Belmont which I expect him to run next.

Curlin: Stuck to my guns and didn't use him at all. Not sorry. I give him more credit now than before but he is not as good as the top 2. He'll win a few more big ones in his life though as he is legit.

Going forward, they should just give the Preakness to Street Sense. A couple like Chelokee, Etude, and Xchanger (or X something I forget for sure...hey I had beer last night) will do their TC bows, but they aren't in his league. Curlin and Hard Spun especially need to sit out for the Belmont. That will be a very very good race this year if Street Sense does indeed take the Preakness. Well, it will if they don't do a Jerry Bailey on him ala 2004, though his running style may preclude that little bit of green envy.

Be back to talk a little Preakness when that field starts taking shape but for now...Street Sense ON TOP.

[JPinMaryland]

I dont think Chelokee's running style is good for the Preakness at all. Belmont maybe. I agree Curlin should sit out the Preakness, not sure about Hard Spun, he can cruise right on the front end, hell if the derby was 110 yds shorter he might have made it close.

ANother one whose running style might be better suited for Preakness is Scat Daddy, but he performed miserably in the derby. He was in good position at the 3/4 and then he went wide and burned. Maybe the worst performance on the day.

ALso think Pletcher might sit Circular Quay down who didnt really fire in the derby..

[OTM Al]

Hard Spun should sit out for the Belmont for 2 reasons. First, the 5 week rest is right in line with the way he's been run his whole career. Second, he's built for that distance and I think he has a big advantage there.

[JPinMaryland]

My thinking on the Belmont is, there is no way to know who is built for the Belmont becaues they only run one 10f race on dirt in this country. So who knows???

ALso, HS is certainly firing well right now, why not use him? Horses can leave us all too quick. Certainly SS would be heavy favorite, but you know you never know what can happen. Look at last year, you dont want to kick yourself later...

I dunno. I am glad you got your score on derby day, Al Did you hit the exacta? I tried to exacta keyed on Tiago and Curlin and was willing to let SS beat me.

Anyhow, this was a real fun thread, got a lot of insight from the different view pts.

[OTM Al]

Yeah, the extacta ten times was may main ticket 7/8+18. Had Hard Spun Keyed 5 times as well over the other 2. Had SS for $5 keyed in tri and Hard Spun for $1 over 5 horses, but I refused to use Curlin. Of course there was no way I was going to use the 4th and 5th placers either, so didn't feel so bad. Also bought a $5 box of SS and AGS because that was my original thought a couple weeks ago, but had downgraded greatly due to that lousy 18 hole draw for AGS. After the OTB took its vig I still got $955 for $190 bet, which was actually less than I'd planned. My best hit of the day though from a handicapping standpoint (and unfortunately only other one) was in the 8th at CD with a straight $20 exacta 7-1. Only got about $400 for that but was pretty proud of that call. 7 was my fav in the 9th as well, but I put him with Better Talk Now, who I guess bombed as I never saw the race having left just before. On the flip side in the 7th I had selected 4 horses of interest 3,5,7,11 and then ended up throwing out a $225 exacta by tossing 3 and 11 and throwing in the 10. Think long, think wrong as they say, but a positive day regardless.

[JPinMaryland]

Yeah that exacta bet made sense, I probably would have used the 14/15/8 if I had the sense to use Street Sense on top.

Did you use Stormello at all? You had liked him in your previous analysis.

BTW: it looks like Hard Spun is in for the Preakness. Pletcher will rest his crew and send King of the Roxy in that one. Fatman will have a chance now to beat Street Sense.

[OTM Al]

I let Stormello go. He figured to be too much early pace and to die, which is exactly what happened. I also was going to use Great Hunter on the bottom and dumped that too. Used only the top 2 with AGS, my 3rd pick who wasn't too far out, CQ, Nobiz and Scat Daddy. I did use Curlin on a P4 ticket as a saver, but that one blew up quick. So that's all I used. I know it is usually better to spread in this race, but my style has become to take a stand and hit it hard (for me anyway) than to spread lightly. It's been working well for the most part as I'm up now about $1000 on the year (I've only bet about $4000 total, so not bad ROI so far) but it does make for some long losing streaks.

As to the next 2 legs, I have read that too. I like King, but as a 7f type. If Tiago can run him down, he's going to be smashed here. I'd rather see Pletcher lay out of this and then send CQ and Scat Daddy and maybe AGS back in the Belmont. I thought no way they'd bring Hard Spun back so quick, but I can see the attraction as it is home turf. I don't think they will go with Curlin until Belmont though. Will be interested to see how it develops, but since there is no Bernardini out there this year, I think SS has a very good chance to take it all down

[OTM Al]

I usually start a thread with stupid trainer quotes a couple weeks out from the Derby, but with no Lukas or Zito this year, quotage was at a minimum, let alone bad quotes, until I found this jewel today. You just have to love this guy and just makes me pull for him a little more

“I look like a genius right now, but if I get beat in the Preakness I will go back to being Carl,” he said.

Carl Nafzger after SS workout 5/15

Love it!

Back with my Preakness analysis Thursday (got Mets-Cubs tickets Wednesday)

[JPinMaryland]

"Quotage?"

[OTM Al]

Its one of those new fangled words don't you know :)

[OTM Al]

So here we are all ready for leg #2. Let's take a look one by one shall we.....

1. Mint Slewlep: WHY? Well, some idiot will bet on him, so might as well take that money.

2. Xchanger: This year's local boy. He's had a decent career, but has basically been flattened any time he's run against the big boys. 1 for 1 on the oval will entice some to use him on the bottom of exotics, but not me. Should be a pace presence.

3. Circular Quay: Our deep closer. If you insist on betting tris in this race then he is a must use and is a maybe use on the bottom of exacta. He'll charge late, but not sure if it will be enough.

4. Curlin: I'm much more impressed with him now than I was before the Derby. However, will stand against again. 2 reasons. Despite ending up 3rd in the Derby, he was losing ground to the top 2. Second, that workout bothers me the more I think of it. The top 2 were sharp in what they did, but he was slow. He's going to have to beat me again.

5. King of the Roxy: Would be a contender if this was a 7f or 1 turn mile. It isn't. He looks to be another pace influence to me. May be the first mover on the 2 and 6, but he certainly won't be the last.

6. Flying First Class: Doesn't belong here for the same reasons as KoR. Would love to see the 2 of them in something like the Kings Bishop this year. Guess Mr. Lukas needed some ego support for putting him in here though. Early leader but will simply be in the way coming around the final turn.

7. Hard Spun: Fast and good at distance. Once again my #2 pick, though I would have loved him if he waited til the Belmont. He'll be there at the end.

8. Street Sense: Once again ON TOP. Don't believe Mr. Nafzger when he said he hadn't been thinking of the TC past the Derby. He knows exactly what he's doing. His work was very sharp. This horse is in peak form and ready to roll again. The field is small enough that traffic should not be a problem and expect him to be closer to the pace than he was in the Derby (probably 6 to 8 lengths off). Grade 1 winners win grade 1 races, and he's the only one of those here.

9. C P West: Mr. Zito's cry for attention this year also has no business here. I'm sure there was a NW1X this weekend at Pimlico that he would have fared much better in.

The bets saturday will be simple. Exactas 8-7 about 3X as much as 7-8. May also put a small one down 8-3 if CQ's odds get that exacta juicy. Don't think I'll do else than that.

Special kudos for Mr. Matz in chosing the Barbaro for Chelokee. He should be cashing a check in that race, but here he'd be an also ran.

[JPinMaryland]

I dunno, while your thinking seems correct in the conventional sense it seems something strange happens somewhere along the derby trail. Last year it was Bernardini; this year there have been so many upsets. Remember Cobalt Blue going off as the favorite? or AGS? or Stormello??

I dont think KoRoxy is likely to win, but he's a game horse and he has speed. Probably he wont get the distance but you've got to consider that his real odds may be better than the odds line.

What about the closers e.g. CQ? CJ says that a number of closers have won this but I dont recall any in recent memory. Was Pt. Given a closer?

The one thing I would look for is to see if the track is speed favoring and if it is then I would bet against SS. I think it often plays this way but I have less data than for the Ky derby.

[Kelso]

The bets saturday will be simple. Exactas 8-7 about 3X as much as 7-8. May also put a small one down 8-3 if CQ's odds get that exacta juicy.


Al,
What minimum odds will you accept on 8 over 7?
Thank you.

[OTM Al]

Kelso: I'd take 4-1 on it as I think those 2 are that much better than the rest. I know that's pretty short for an exacta in the race to race/day to day racing, but it may be merited here. I expect the combination to be in the $15-$20 return range though.

JP: I wouldn't say Bernardini was a strage event. He was a legitimate contender firing fresh. I really don't think there are any of those here this year. King has the best quality of the lot, but I'll place money on him in the Kings Bishop, but not here. Of the ones you name, the only one I think was a silly favorite was Cobalt Blue. Stormello had a solid 2yo year and AGS is still in my opinion one of the better horses in this group. I rate his Derby very highly, especially given the fact that he bruised his foot in the running. The Derby is unlike any other race, but the Preakness really isn't that different than a regular modern day Gr1.

[JPinMaryland]

the other factor is weather. Which appears that we are going to have rain for this one. Accounting for this may prove difficult. Not sure which of these horses can run in slop..

[OTM Al]

Only a few have. One would believe that due to his style Hard Spun wouldn't be affected much by the slop and he did win his second start by open lengths on a wet track. Street Sense was covered in dirt after the derby, which would tell me that the wet kickback probably won't bother him as much as it would most horses. His one foray in the slop resulted in a 3rd, but it showed no regression from surrounding figs, so I don't think it will hurt him. Curlin and Xchanger have big wet track Tomlinsons indication that they have the breeding to run well in the wet, but neither has done it yet. Circular Quay would be most hurt by the wet I would think due to his style, size, and lack of experience in the wet, but I'm not sure it will change a whole lot. Much better to think about these things now than wait til tomorrow though.

[JPinMaryland]

Yeah too often I made hurried bets based on changing track conditions. Which is not to say ignore the track, but rather, it is better to anticipate what these changes might be so one can have an idea of how he will change his betting.

Wet track, favors front runners? Yes? Smarty had a romp in the slop if I am recalling it right. I would like to take a stand against SS if possible and maybe the slop may be a reason.

KoRox is an interesting horse in this spot, but at 12-1 (currently?) does not thrill me.

What is CQ odds line? They did an informal poll on the other forum but I think they forgot to include him.

At even money or 6-5, I do not want SS. He's good, he's faster than probably all these, other than that nose at Bluegrass he's won 4 in a row....What's not to like? I guess I dont think he can keep this going.

[OTM Al]

Since I almost never win bet, his odds don't bother me and honestly I think he is that much the best of these. Maybe he won't keep it going, but the only ones who I think could beat him ran 2 weeks ago too and got beat. If he does get through this one, he's got a great chance to get all 3 as I would doubt too many of the others will come back in the Belmont and I don't see anyone else that's good enough. (I love AGS but I think 1 1/2 miles is too long for him)

KotR got nailed by Tiago who isn't half the closer as SS or CQ. No thanks

Slop does tend to favor front runners because of the kickback. Rather than getting an annoying spray thrown up in your face, you are getting clods of mud. No horse likes either, but SS has shown it doesn't bother him too much.

Forgot to mention one of my favorite horses is running Saturday at Belmont as well in the Shuvee, so something to watch while waiting for the Preakness to start. Silmaril in a one turn mile can be tough. Funny thing is she runs almost exclusively in MD, yet on MD's biggest weekend, she's in NY.

[Greyfox]

“I’m not here to eat the crab cakes..We’re going to be in the mix here, and my horse is going to have a say in the outcome. D.W. Lukas

[Robert Fischer]

So here we are all ready for leg #2. Let's take a look one by one shall we.....

1. Mint Slewlep: No speed or kick. Will run his race and beat 1 or 2 horses.

2. Xchanger: If he doesn't completely quit when he looks Hard Spun and FFC in the eye during the first 20 seconds , he will after 8.5 furlongs.

3. Circular Quay: Will be moving right with Street Sense after the first turn. Was rolling in the Derby but found trouble. Has never shown anything brilliant but should be in the money. Is one of the only small overlays in the race as Curlin will recieve more support while Quay probably beats that one in order of finish.

4. Curlin: Has the style to win the Preakness. Not sure he is good enough. There is a small chance that he makes a huge stalk and pounce move, and wins by 5+ lengths, most likely he runs 3rd or 4th. Albarado must remain patient and not rush Curlin out of the gate as an over-reaction to his bad ride in Kentucky.

5. King of the Roxy: One of the best 7 furlong horses in the race. Probably doesn't stay for 4th.

6. Flying First Class: One of the best 7 furlong horses in the race. Probably doesn't stay for 4th. Seems to disappear in big races. Could have the lead into the first turn if he can break decent and then pass Xchanger and HS.

7. Hard Spun: Has the extremely rare running style of high cruising speed. Could be the horse we look back at as the super-talent. If so he probably should have ran away with the Derby... He could run away with the preakness , he could get passed in the stretch or he could plod through 3rd or 4th.

8. Street Sense: The best in the race. Only knock is that he is a closer, although this horse is not a plodder in any way. Preakness generally plays to the stalk-and-pounce type, but SS should be vying for the lead on the outside at the top of the stretch. He will be all out.

9. C P West: The other overlay in the race. Has a chance to 4th possibly 3rd. Prado will need to save as much horse as possible for the late run and give up a few lengths early to the 7 furlong horses. If he is close to the pace early- he finishes near the rear.

[OTM Al]

Oh well. I got beat by a good horse. To be honest, the top 3 are pretty darn good horses. I'll always be one to take a stand and this time it cost me (though I still won on the day YAY!!!!!)

So, as I sip down one last barley pop for the night, I write my thoughts

First, a sense of sadness. Sure I took SS on top here and in the Derby, but because he was the best horse (IMHO, he was best in the Preakness as well, but only by a whisker). I wasn't a fan like I was with Alex or Smarty. I appreciated his quality and he padded my wallet. However, had he won this, he would have taken down the Belmont too. It would have been good for racing. I guess I can only hope all 3 come back for the Belmont (which I really doubt) and Pletcher sends his filly as well. The 3 could make for a good rivalry for this year which also would be good for the game. There's not much difference between the 3 of them and they are without a doubt the best of their crop.

The lead announcer on NBC freaks me out

Mint Slewlip went off at around 30-1. What in the hell is wrong with people????? I've seen NW1Xs (which he qualifies for) that he should be 30-1 in. Oh well, had I won their money, I wouldn't be complaining...

So that lead announcer guy on NBC....about 6 facelifts and I think he was wearing eyeliner? He really freaks me out.

Pimlico really dilutes the Preakness these days by running the Sir Barton/Barbaro on the same day. Yeah, Chelokee was the only one in the group that was decent enough to be running in the Preakness and pretty much everything under the top 3 should have run in the Barbaro, but wouldn't have been a much better betting race had the Barbaro been run maybe last week and say 3 of those starters went in the Preakness instead?

Lead announcer on NBC is still giving me the willies...and I had to hear McCarver do the Yanks Mets game. Ok, that NBC guy looks freaky, but I still hate McCarver more.

Lastly, I've already seen some blame for Calvin's ride and I think its not deserved. Of course he was looking back for Curlin. When he knew he had Hard Spun done in, who else should he have been looking for (well maybe a late CQ charge that never happened). I think SS has developed a bad habit. I think he did it in the Derby too. Once he got out front, he let up. Hard Spun seemed to be coming back at him a bit then and honestly I think he never saw Curlin til it was too late. I'm no believer in the after the wire runout, but when a horse is in front 2 strides before the wire and 2 strides after and yet lost the race, it tells me that the horse had more left. Again though, the same top 3 in both races tells me that they are all of very top quality.

Ok, the NBC guy is just plain freaky........

Well, in 3 weeks we'll see who comes back. Wonder if fatman has Curlin trouncing the field in the Peter Pan tomorrow too......just kidding fatman. Hope you cashed well today

[depalma13]

Mint Slewlip went off at around 30-1. What in the hell is wrong with people????? I've seen NW1Xs (which he qualifies for) that he should be 30-1 in. Oh well, had I won their money, I wouldn't be complaining...



Giacomo. He caused all of this.

Anyway, yes, it was nice to take their foolish money.

[OTM Al]

So here we are, end of the line at my favorite of the TC races. If I had to rank 3yo (boy) races in my order of preference, some would likely think it odd, but I would go

1. Belmont
2. Virginia Derby
3. Travers
4. Kentucky Derby
5. Preakness

I really like the Virginia Derby and its seems to be growing in prominence. Closest thing we have to a classic on the turf. But enough of that kind of personal preference, let's on to that of the equine variety, once again by post

1. Imawildancrazyguy. ImastilleligibleforaNW2X. Please. He's a competitive gelding, which is good for the game, but he simply isn't good enough to go with some of these. He cashed a check on derby day, so good for him and given only seven runners here, he'll cash a check Saturday too. Just won't be one of the larger ones

2. Tiago. Ah! My friend Tiago! Have a cookie good boy! He's the only plodder here, so a lot of people (read foolish people) will think that is the perfect style for the Belmont. Well, if the other six try to do 45.4 to the half, then it is, but somehow I really doubt it will happen. Will be a black hole for $ once again.

3. Curlin. Curlin should be a wrecking machine at 1 1/8 m as most big races are anymore. I don't particularly care for him at 1 1/2 m however. He should be a deserving favorite, but I expect him to be too short for me to want to use him. Odds are he will beat me, but I have to go against again. I'm 1-1 on that score, so this will be the tiebreaker. At least his breeding rights haven't been sold yet......

4. CP West. Well, he showed ok in Baltimore, so I guess Zito needs some more spotlight time. Not with your money.

5. Slew's Tizzy. Don't think he has a chance, but I do like the race selection, until now, he has been running. He's not bad a step below this right now. He's one I hope to see good things from as a 4yo.

6. Hard Spun. Had he not run in the Preakness, he'd be my pick, even if Street Sense was in this and going for the TC. He's built for this. High cruising speed, strong consistant improvement. Consider that despite that suicidal pace he ran in the Preakness, he kept running and only lost by 4. The others he was running with finished much further back than that. He will probably be my #1 if I do bet this race.

7. Rags to Riches. Awesome. Winning the Oaks was big, so I can see running in that rather than in the Derby, but she may well be at least as good if not better than all those that ran for TP in the Derby. Another absolutely built for this race. She will likely be way overbet being she is a she, but hey, I'm rooting for her. Even if this hangs another loss on Pletcher's TC record, I'm not going to hold it against him. A bold move and would be a memorable TC breakthrough if there ever was one.

So how will I bet it? Probably as part of a P4 or P3, but don't think it will be a good individual race. Maybe a cheap exacta box with HS and Rags, but probably won't do much serious. As I said, Curlin may just be too good, even at the distance, though his odds will just not merit his use

[the_fat_man]

You sound like one of the Jesuit astronomers/mathematicians (Clavius, would be the best example) forced by the Church to support an Aristotelian astronomy (and the physics that come with it) after Galileo has published Sidereus Nuncias, all but confirming a Copernican astronomy. And you know he's right.


Come on, AL, admit it, CURLIN can't lose. HS is no match for the big horse. You know you want to.

[OTM Al]

Fat man I know your love for Curlin. In fact, I'm surprised you weren't touting him winning the 6th, 8th and 10th as well before taking down the Belmont with a final time of 2:22. Ok, just joking there...but...Can't lose? He absolutely can lose. If you haven't noticed he has a flaw that's really going to rear its ugly head if he doesn't get it straightened out. He's had gate trouble the last 2 races in a row. Once I forgive, but 2 in a row is generally not coincidence. Does he look the best on paper? Well, if you are a misuser of speed figs and simply fixate on his final number, then you'll believe that, but frankly I still think Hard Spun is right there with him. And who knows what the fillie can do. Odds are she gets beat, but then there are a handful that can run with the boys and distance is a great equalizer in that respect.

So what's my point. Do I think his 6/5 morning line is proper? Yes I do. Do I think he should be the favorite? Yep. Gonna bet him? If I play P4, but within the race, nope.

[46zilzal]

y point. Do I think his 6/5 morning line is proper? Yes I do. Do I think he should be the favorite? Yep. Gonna bet him? If I play P4, but within the race, nope but frankly I still think Hard Spun is right there with him. And who knows what the fillie can do. Odds are she gets beat, but then there are a handful that can run with the boys and distance is a great equalizer in that respect.



Hard Spun's energy patterns have gotten EARLIER three races in a row which, like Bob n' John last year, is the kiss of death going even longer. Fast, yes. Stamina, marginal at best.

[Pell Mell]

Here's what's wrong with trip handicapping; It seems to me that Curlin really prefers to be closer to the pace than he was in the derby and preakness. How do we know that if he didn't stumble coming out of the gate that he may have also gotten caught up in the torrid pace of the preakness and gotten burned trying to run with Hard Spun. Also, suppose he hadn't gotten shuffled back in the derby and chased Hard Spun?

Sometimes supposedly hard luck works out to be an advantage. I'm not saying this is what actually happened but it's possible. I think Curlin will be a lot closer to the pace in the Belmont and, if so, he may not have that closing kick. So far, anyone who's tried to run with Hard Spun has finished at the back of the pack and I don't think Curlin's connections want to see Hard Spun loose on an easy lead.

Just some food for thought.

[depalma13]

Here's what's wrong with trip handicapping; It seems to me that Curlin really prefers to be closer to the pace than he was in the derby and preakness. How do we know that if he didn't stumble coming out of the gate that he may have also gotten caught up in the torrid pace of the preakness and gotten burned trying to run with Hard Spun. Also, suppose he hadn't gotten shuffled back in the derby and chased Hard Spun?

Sometimes supposedly hard luck works out to be an advantage. I'm not saying this is what actually happened but it's possible. I think Curlin will be a lot closer to the pace in the Belmont and, if so, he may not have that closing kick. So far, anyone who's tried to run with Hard Spun has finished at the back of the pack and I don't think Curlin's connections want to see Hard Spun loose on an easy lead.

Just some food for thought.


Seems to me Curlin prefers to run a :48 - :49 half mile, sometimes that puts him close to the front, sometimes that puts him in the back.

[OTM Al]

Can't lose? Ayep. Wish I could have got a bet in on this one but JetBlue blew that one. What a race.

[OTM Al]

Finally time for a little summing up...

A terrific first half to the 3yo season, but why write what everyone else has already said. Just a few thoughts for the going forward...

The Belmont can sew up the 3yo male Eclipse award, but who would have thought it would sew up the 3yo filly division when the year started. You could argue the 5lb difference was the deciding factor, but then again, she gave ground to Curlin who had the rail all the way around. Pretty dead even either way.

Now that Pletcher has a TC win, we will probably now just have to hear the "when will he win the Derby?" thing after another year or so. Or perhaps he'll just start ripping off one TC win after another as he has over the rest of the racing calendar.

The 3 colts and the filly in the Travers and no others need apply? I'd pay to see that 4 horse race.

Was going to watch the Belmont from Calder, but thanks to FAA computers, instead of landing in FL at 10 AM, I made it in at 4:30. Watched the race from a sports bar, but no bets made, so 1 and 1 with a push this TC season, but that was good for about $700 profit, so no complaints. Did get to Calder the following Monday and really liked the place. It was almost all maiden claimers which I think must be my girlfriends forte. 6-3-1-1 record on the day is pretty respectable with her only off the board finish an admitted longshot. Anyway, great view from the clubhouse dining room and staff was really friendly. There may have actually even been more people there than at the Tampa Bay-Marlins game I went to the day before......

As good as these 3yos have been though, if Invasor is in form in October, they aren't coming close, but if not, they will have a shot at winning the big one. Might have to cheer for Curlin finally as he's the only one of the 3 not committed to go away in a couple months, though that may not last either.

[Bruddah]

Keep up the great posts. I look forward to reading them. :jump: :ThmbUp:

[OTM Al]

Thank you. I get great enjoyment out of this board and am glad to give some back, so in saying that it is PA we should all thank a little more often. So thanks PA for supplying us with this great forum!

[PaceAdvantage]

You're most welcome!