No Value Betting

[Pell Mell]

I was going to mention this on another thread but thought it best to start a new one.

When I first started back in 1950 I used to be a driver and "Go-Fer" for a guy they called "Chinaman Dan". He was a high roller at that time and the first really successful bettor I had ever met. Dan was over 50 when I was only 17 but he kind of took me under his wing.

During the racing season, when there was no winter racing up north, I would be with Dan most every day at the NY & NJ tracks. He always had a new Caddy, wore expensive suits, smoked $2. cigars and had a wife half his age that he kept in fine style.

Dan had a very simple conservative method of play. He used no PPs and only bought a track program. He would mark any horses 2/1 or lower on the morning line and usually there wouldn't be more than one or two a day. He would then watch the board from the first to the last flash. His rule was that the odds must NEVER go up from the morning line. The horse must be bet from start to finish and then he would place 2 Gs to place. Sometimes he would get a price as high as $3.80 and he would be overjoyed. I once saw him cash over 30 straight bets.

His theory was that if the morning line was 2/1 or lower the horse figured and if the odds never went up it meant the horse was well meant. It was simple but it worked and I never saw him lose more than two bets in a row. Say what you may but Dan never went broke and that's more than I can say for most bettors.

[BillW]

I'm curious how you don't consider it value betting if he received more back from his bets than he put in :confused:

[Pell Mell]

I would suppose because most people don't consider even money shots as value:confused:

[Cesario!]

Even money shots (and odds-on) can be some of the best value there is. The best value usually occurs at both ends of the spectrum.

I like that story. Thanks for sharing.

[Pell Mell]

Speaking of value, back in the fifties that word wasn't even heard in racing circles. It was known as getting a price.

[ranchwest]

Keep in mind, too, that there weren't many exotic options back then.

[Robert Fischer]

May your "Silver Wagons" be plentiful, and your "Hard Spuns" be few and far between...;)



.

[xciceroguy]

I was going to mention this on another thread but thought it best to start a new one.

When I first started back in 1950 I used to be a driver and "Go-Fer" for a guy they called "Chinaman Dan". He was a high roller at that time and the first really successful bettor I had ever met. Dan was over 50 when I was only 17 but he kind of took me under his wing.

During the racing season, when there was no winter racing up north, I would be with Dan most every day at the NY & NJ tracks. He always had a new Caddy, wore expensive suits, smoked $2. cigars and had a wife half his age that he kept in fine style.

Dan had a very simple conservative method of play. He used no PPs and only bought a track program. He would mark any horses 2/1 or lower on the morning line and usually there wouldn't be more than one or two a day. He would then watch the board from the first to the last flash. His rule was that the odds must NEVER go up from the morning line. The horse must be bet from start to finish and then he would place 2 Gs to place. Sometimes he would get a price as high as $3.80 and he would be overjoyed. I once saw him cash over 30 straight bets.

His theory was that if the morning line was 2/1 or lower the horse figured and if the odds never went up it meant the horse was well meant. It was simple but it worked and I never saw him lose more than two bets in a row. Say what you may but Dan never went broke and that's more than I can say for most bettors.


Was curious how much money you make doing this?

[PaceAdvantage]

In this day and age, it would be a pretty easy method to test. In fact, I wrote a program not too long ago that records win tote data in graph form for every track running....maybe I'll watch it for a few days and report back how this little system performs....

[Pell Mell]

A couple of considerations; There were almost always 12 horses in a race and with the Widener there would be 16, the only exotic was the DD, and a new Caddy cost $3,000.;)

[STABLEMATE]

In this day and age, it would be a pretty easy method to test. In fact, I wrote a program not too long ago that records win tote data in graph form for every track running....maybe I'll watch it for a few days and report back how this little system performs....

I'm looking forward to PA's report on his test of the method. My (seemingly obvious) question to Pell Mell is do you ever use the method yourself. From a follow-up comment of yours, I get the impression that you don't use it, perhaps partly because you feel it may only be profitable in large fields?

[Robert Fischer]

I'm looking forward to PA's report on his test of the method. My (seemingly obvious) question to Pell Mell is do you ever use the method yourself. From a follow-up comment of yours, I get the impression that you don't use it, perhaps partly because you feel it may only be profitable in large fields?

I believe that there is a correlation between tote odds and win (as well as place) probability. It makes sense that this would additionally be true with tote patterns.

Field size and other filters such as class level,purse,age,distance could also be added. Take it one more step and use speed ratings and/or power ratings.

If it pays $2.30 to place, that is odds of 1.15/1. Not a bad deal if you are hitting at 60%.

[1st time lasix]

I can easily understand the win betting....but why the place betting? In today's world ....covering the key horse underneath in the second spot in the exacta seems like a better play in most cases.

[Anderon]

I already have the minute by minute odds progressions for most all tracks for the last 6 years. I will look and see how this pans out. My guess it won't be very profitable based on my experience because most of the money now days is not in the win pool but the exotic pools. It is really hard now days to place bet like that for a profit based on the rules you explained. But let me ask you this, when you say they have to be bet does that mean they have to continually go down but not up in odds or can they go up but just not over their ML and then can come back down? I also would say that you could only do this on the big win pool tracks with the larger handles as well. Also what if you have 2 horses in the race that comply with the rules do you pass the race then, because I have seen this.

[Pell Mell]

I used to watch it on occasion but it just doesn't suit my personality. I'm not a grinder, I like to make scores and I can't see myself putting up that kind of money on a horse. Old Dan was betting 2 grand a race in 1950 and I would guess that would equal over 10 grand today.

He would get to the track and socialize all day. He'd get a haircut and a shave, get his shoes shined, have lunch and visit everyone. He knew all the bartenders, lunch girls, the umbrella lady, jocks, trainers, etc. The track was his life. I couldn't do that because I have too many other interests. To hang out all day every day to make a couple of bets would drive me up the wall.

[Kelso]

If it pays $2.30 to place, that is odds of 1.15/1. Not a bad deal if you are hitting at 60%.



Robert,
If I hit 6 races at $2.30, I have a $1.80 profit. If I lose 4 races, I have an $8.00 loss. What am I missing such that a 60% hit rate at 1.15/1 seems, to me, to be a losing proposition? Thank you.

[HILLJERRY2269]

Hi Anderon


I already have the minute by minute odds progressions for most all tracks for the last 6 years. I will look and see how this pans out.

This is some data base. Anxious to hear what you find
Jerry

[Light]

I agree with 2 parts of the theory,that is,if you play chalk without a form,you do better picking 2-1 Ml horses and below,and then bet them to place.You certainly have to watch the board and make sure they are live. Have used this with O.K. results when playing alot of tracks just for action or in eliminator contests.

[Nosebob]

Robert,
If I hit 6 races at $2.30, I have a $1.80 profit. If I lose 4 races, I have an $8.00 loss. What am I missing such that a 60% hit rate at 1.15/1 seems, to me, to be a losing proposition? Thank you.

I think the problem here is how the odds are stated. In the example, the odds are 1.15 for 1 (not 1.15 to 1). It is a losing proposition.

Some of the bets on a craps table are "for" bets, and actually even poorer bets than they would appear to be, because we tend to think of payoffs for "to" bets.

Nosebob

[Pell Mell]

I only related this story because I thought it might be interesting to some. This was taking place over 50 yrs ago when Belmont would get 50,000 people on a Sat. and there was no Sun. racing. There were no exotics and the w/p pools were huge.

Monmouth would get 30,000 attending on a Sat. and tickets were punched 0ne at a time. If you wanted to bet $2,000. you had to get 20 $100. tickets and the machines were slow. Dan had tellers that would start punching after the last flash.

Sorry fellas, it was a different game back then and I think most of you would have liked it.

[Anderon]

Ok attached are todays results so far for this type of play. What I did is played all the ML at 2-1 and under and played those horses that always stayed at or under their ML in the wagering. (I think this is the way to play these, is that right PellMell ?). I'm also showing the place pool amounts when they went to off on the toteboard. At this point there have been 12 plays today. The results are as I suspected, if I'm doing it right.

[Overlay]

I think the problem here is how the odds are stated. In the example, the odds are 1.15 for 1 (not 1.15 to 1). It is a losing proposition.

The odds producing a payoff of $2.30 on a $2.00 wager would normally be stated as .15 - 1.00.

[Anderon]

Just had another play in Oaklawns 10th on the #4 horse. ML of 2-1 and a place pool of $12,389. He Wins and pays $2.40 to Place. So after 13 races Profits now stand at $-5.40. I think this is a very quick way to the poor house or having to go find a job !! :ThmbDown: Now in the old days when there was just WPS pools this might have been a better situation.

[Pell Mell]

Very interesting. Seems to show how much times have changed. The payoffs were very small which I would attribute to 3 items. One is the shorter fields, another is the much smaller pools and last but not least, there are a lot more astute cappers today than there were 50 yrs ago.

[Light]

Pell

I think your buddy came accroos this angle like I did. Fooling around and improvising. I dont know about your buddy,but when I play it,its not a play if there is a strong co-favorite or another serious money horse.

I got the idea from Robert Rowe.He talked about natural and created favorites. So another qualification for me is the horse has to be the ML fav,2-1 and below and open below his M.L meaning he is a natural favorite,which according to Rowe's stats did better than created favorites. It's fun and streaky but nothing to get serious about.

[Hosshead]

If it pays $2.30 to place, that is odds of 1.15/1. Not a bad deal if you are hitting at 60%.
With payoffs avg. $2.30 to place, you'd have to hit about an 87% rate to break even !

[Hosshead]

However, with an avg. of $3.00 place payoffs, you'd only have to hit 66.66% to break even.
Or hit at 76% to make a 14% profit.
Or hit at 85% to make a 27.5% profit.

[Robert Fischer]

With payoffs avg. $2.30 to place, you'd have to hit about an 87% rate to break even !
However, with an avg. of $3.00 place payoffs, you'd only have to hit 66.66% to break even.
Or hit at 76% to make a 14% profit.
Or hit at 85% to make a 27.5% profit.

Robert,
If I hit 6 races at $2.30, I have a $1.80 profit. If I lose 4 races, I have an $8.00 loss. What am I missing such that a 60% hit rate at 1.15/1 seems, to me, to be a losing proposition? Thank you.

Good Call:ThmbUp:. Also as nosebob and overlay mentioned, the odds for a $2.30 place return are 0.15-1.


-@ $2.30 average place payoff, you need to hit nearly 90%.
-For a 60% hit rate you would need an average payoff of about $3.40 for you to earn a profit.

[Light]

Uh,unless a better is retarded,they are not going to bet blind with this method. When I play this system,I dont not bet unless it looks like I may get around $2.80 to place which I think is more the norm for a favorite,not $2.30.This requires decent size fields,I'm not talking about 5 horse fields with a heavy favorite. I have gotten $3.80 to place on 6/5 horses and $3.60 to show on even money horses and $3.00 to place on 1/2 shots using a little Dr. Z. In large fields the 2nd or 1st place horse is alot of the times a longshot who boosts the payoff of the favorite to place.I've caught 8 out of 10 bets at times with an ROI that is quite healthy. The problem is it's a roller coaster and I've used it with a form to filter out false favorites to increase the ROI.And we all know what happens when we use a form and are doing well without it.

[Nosebob]

Pell

.......

I got the idea from Robert Rowe.He talked about natural and created favorites. So another qualification for me is the horse has to be the ML fav,2-1 and below and open below his M.L meaning he is a natural favorite,which according to Rowe's stats did better than created favorites. It's fun and streaky but nothing to get serious about.

I just reviewed my copy of Rowe's book, "How to Win at Horse-Racing', and he advocated an interesting approach. He created an odds line by using several public handicapper's selections, then bet only horses which were natural favorites andbelow his odds line.Using this method, he said he achieved a 40% win rate and 15% flat bet profit on win bets on a test of 5200 races (about half of these qualified for bets).

One interesting aspect of this is that he only bet horses with odds below the odds line he created. Interesting, because the common wisdom is to only bet if actual odds are above your line.

The second interesting aspect was that he advocated place betting, because it had a 60% hit rate and lower average mutual but showed about the same flat bet profit.

He may have hit two sacred cows with one method!

Nosebob

[Robert Fischer]

I just reviewed my copy of Rowe's book, "How to Win at Horse-Racing', and he advocated an interesting approach. He created an odds line by using several public handicapper's selections, then bet only horses which were natural favorites andbelow his odds line.Using this method, he said he achieved a 40% win rate and 15% flat bet profit on win bets on a test of 5200 races (about half of these qualified for bets).

One interesting aspect of this is that he only bet horses with odds below the odds line he created. Interesting, because the common wisdom is to only bet if actual odds are above your line.

The second interesting aspect was that he advocated place betting, because it had a 60% hit rate and lower average mutual but showed about the same flat bet profit.

He may have hit two sacred cows with one method!

Nosebob


I like that idea of natural and created favorites.
I have played around with somewhat similar results to filters like "topbrisPrime AND mlfav AND posttimefav" only dirt races, fast track, no maidens...
Looking at win percentage. I think the flat bet profit worked best when you require a certain minimum post time odds (greater than even money 1/1 for example)...

EXOTIC$
Rather than discard the so called "created favorites" look at how these races pay out in exotics. If the created favorites truly have a lesser chance of winning, then it figures that there will be some increase in the value of the exotics in those races. In particular races that are inherently less stable. Large field size, first time starters, uncharted distances, maybe a change of surface, inconsistent performers, low% barns etc...

[ryesteve]

after 13 races Profits now stand at $-5.40. I think this is a very quick way to the poor house
On the other hand, 7 of the 13 won, which leads me to suspect that this short test was probably profitable on win bets. Not that I think this hit rate will be sustained very long going forward... but at the same time, 8% 2nd place finishers won't be sustained either.

[mannyberrios]

I think it is very interesting. I gave it a try at tampa bay downs the first and second race today, and it worked pretty good.The first horse won, paid two dollares eighty cents to place, and the second race the eight horse came in second and paid three dollares twenty cents to place. It worked pretty good for those two races.Maybe in the long run I figure it would keep on working like that. I think that the place price would a little better than 2.30.

[Anderon]

On the other hand, 7 of the 13 won, which leads me to suspect that this short test was probably profitable on win bets. Not that I think this hit rate will be sustained very long going forward... but at the same time, 8% 2nd place finishers won't be sustained either.

There were a total of 13 plays with 6 winners (I made a mistake on SA 1st race, the 8 did not win but ran 2nd). The winners only added up to $22.20, so you had a net loss of $3.80. Now this was only 1 day and 13 plays, but to me it's not the right track to be on.

[Anderon]

If anyone would like for me to do a few more days in succession, let me know and I'll be happy to go thru my database and post the results right here. I think that after 50-100 plays you'll see that the loss factor would be pretty substancial to trying to make a profit doing this, Win or Place.

[mannyberrios]

Hello Anderson. Yes please keep on. This system looks pretty good to me, Sunday the first race at gulfstream, the first race at Pha. the first race at tampa bay downs, and last night at mountineer.It hit pretty good for me, and the payouts were pretty good too. I would like to know if this would work out in the long run. I think it can. Would like to know what you think. The favorite does not have to stay on or below his odds line just start and end on or below the odds line,and if there is another favorite, it does not matter. Thank you.

[Anderon]

Hello Anderson. Yes please keep on. This system looks pretty good to me, Sunday the first race at gulfstream, the first race at Pha. the first race at tampa bay downs, and last night at mountineer.It hit pretty good for me, and the payouts were pretty good too. I would like to know if this would work out in the long run. I think it can. Would like to know what you think. The favorite does not have to stay on or below his odds line just start and end on or below the odds line,and if there is another favorite, it does not matter. Thank you.

Ok, give me the exact rules that you want me to go by and I will put it together. I'm not sure that what your saying is matching up with Pell Mell's rules.

[mannyberrios]

Hi: Today I hit the first and second race at Pha. paid $2.80, $3.80,and the first race at Tampa Day downs $2.80 . Mr. pell mell was only talking about New York, New Jersey, but the other tracks, it does not matter if the race has a co. favorite. History tells us that the fav. wins about 35% of the time and places a little more than 55% of the time. But thes favorites(Pell Mells) faves win over 80% of the time, and places about 96%,97% of the time. If the morning line is two to one or less, and at post time is at two to one or less,then it is a play. Thank you for your time. And to Mr.Pell Mell, thank you very much. I would like to talk to you, if it is possible.

[mannyberrios]

Hi there! I just hit three more, Beau. park race two and tampa bay downs on the grass(if you can believe it). I think track bias could be the only problem here. This is a great system without a racing form, just the morning line odds

[Pell Mell]

Manny, if you want to talk to anyone just send a PM.

[Pell Mell]

You know fellas, I didn't say this was my system. I only related a story concerning a high roller I knew 50 yrs ago and that was his method. If he used any other angles with it he didn't tell me. I know he was loaded and didn't do anything else that I know of. Betting 2 Gs a race 50 yrs. ago was BIG BUCKS!

[mannyberrios]

Nobody is going to the poor house with this system. Today my R.O.I. was about one dollar witch is not bad.

[Light]

mannyberrios

That system actually swept the card at Pha today. Other days are not as good. If you can find factor X for why it works when it works and not work when it don't let me know. Regardless,you can get alot of mileage out of it.

[mannyberrios]

The thing is that the morning line of the favorite has to be two to one or less, and the betting public has to agree with the morning line pick. Ifthebetting public agrees with the morning line favorite than it is a play. this will work out in the long run.

[Light]

mannyberrios

I know. I practically invented the system before hearing of Pell's friend. But believe me, I played it way before you heard about it.It will turn on you. I've just never figured out why.

[Pell Mell]

BM looks like a great place for this system.

[jotb]

Hello All:

I don't believe this type of system would be good at a small track with small pools. I see at CT alot of times when you have a 2-1 morning line favorite and the first flash the horse might be 10-1 only because someone dropped $30 on a horse and that horse opened at 6-5. I've seen some crazy stuff at CT. I remember one night a morning line favorite opened up at 50-1 and at post time the horse was 3-5 and win going away.

Joe

[mannyberrios]

Hello Pell Mell; This system works for any track. pollytrack, turf, any track. Some races the fields are small, but you gotta pick your spots. They win about %85 percent of the time, and place about 97% of the time. I made about 25 bets, and lost only three for place only. Thank you once again.

[Robert Fischer]

...They win about %85 percent of the time, and place about 97%...


:eek:

[mannyberrios]

Wait a min. I am talking about morning line favorites that go off as the post time favs.

[NoDayJob]

Old Dan was betting 2 grand a race in 1950 and I would guess that would equal over 10 grand today.

:) Closer to $40k. :)