LONGTERM CAPITAL PLAYS 02-21-2007

[formula_2002]

PERHAPS A FEW WILL QUALIFY FOR WPS<5/2..

STAGE DOOR PENNY IS THE 7/2 ML FAVORITE IN BEU'S RACE 8.
<5/2 FOR 10 TIMES


track date race pgno name ml post
PHA 20070221 6 8 CALL ME WIL 4.5 2:20
GP 20070221 4 2 CHILHAM CAS 6 2:27
PHA 20070221 7 3 BOOT CAMP 12 2:50
PHA 20070221 7 3 BOOT CAMP 12 2:50
PHA 20070221 7 3 BOOT CAMP 12 2:50
PHA 20070221 7 3 BOOT CAMP 12 2:50
PHA 20070221 7 3 BOOT CAMP 12 2:50
PHA 20070221 7 3 BOOT CAMP 12 2:50
PHA 20070221 7 3 BOOT CAMP 12 2:50
PHA 20070221 7 3 BOOT CAMP 12 2:50
BEU 20070221 6 7 LUNARCO 8 3:25
BEU 20070221 6 10 RUBBER SIDE 8 3:25
BEU 20070221 8 11 ELISA JANE 20 4:17
BEU 20070221 8 6 STAGE DOOR 3.5 4:17
BEU 20070221 8 6 STAGE DOOR 3.5 4:17
BEU 20070221 8 6 STAGE DOOR 3.5 4:17
BEU 20070221 8 6 STAGE DOOR 3.5 4:17
BEU 20070221 8 6 STAGE DOOR 3.5 4:17
BEU 20070221 8 6 STAGE DOOR 3.5 4:17
BEU 20070221 8 6 STAGE DOOR 3.5 4:17
BEU 20070221 8 6 STAGE DOOR 3.5 4:17
BEU 20070221 8 6 STAGE DOOR 3.5 4:17
BEU 20070221 8 6 STAGE DOOR 3.5 4:17
GP 20070221 8 6 HANDSOME SM 5 4:24
BEU 20070221 9 1 ATTONOTAUTO 12 4:43
BEU 20070221 9 1 ATTONOTAUTO 12 4:43
BEU 20070221 9 7 SOUNDS O K 5 4:43
TUP 20070221 8 4 LOOKIN TRIC 10 5:45
TP 20070221 7 8 CONNYWITHAY 3 8:06
TP 20070221 7 8 CONNYWITHAY 3 8:06
TP 20070221 7 8 CONNYWITHAY 3 8:06
PEN 20070221 5 3 HAVE NO FEA 8 8:33
PEN 20070221 5 3 HAVE NO FEA 8 8:33
PEN 20070221 5 3 HAVE NO FEA 8 8:33
PEN 20070221 6 6 DA DAT TA T 8 9:00

[formula_2002]

finals:
no plays qualified for wps <5/2

track analysis for 245 plays, wodds<5/2 for all posted plays.
a/e = actual wins / expected wins
expected wins = 1/(odds+1)

track w net p net s net e-wins a-wins plays a/e roi
AQU $47 $49 $40 10 12 21 1.23
BEU $38 $24 $22 6 9 16 1.40
CT $53 $61 $56 7 11 19 1.50
DED $10 $9 $10 2 2 6 0.90
FG $44 $28 $25 10 10 23 0.96
GG $0 $0 $0 0 0 1 0.00
GP $0 $0 $5 1 0 2 0.00
HOU $8 $25 $27 6 2 12 0.35
LRL $0 $2 $2 4 0 10 0.00
MNR $54 $36 $29 4 9 12 2.12
OP $27 $43 $39 8 5 19 0.61
PEN $0 $0 $6 1 0 2 0.00
PHA $0 $0 $6 1 0 4 0.00
PM $0 $0 $0 1 0 2 0.00
SA $10 $19 $15 2 2 6 0.84
SUN $33 $34 $39 9 6 24 0.66
TAM $77 $48 $35 7 15 17 2.31
TP $89 $101 $73 16 17 40 1.09
TUP $24 $13 $19 3 4 9 1.21
tolals $513 $491 $447 99 104 245 1.05

[formula_2002]

and by class
class wnet pnet snet e-wins a-win plays a/e roi
A $89 $60 $50 10 20 21 2.06
AO $20 $13 $12 6 4 14 0.71
C $280 $284 $259 57 54 145 0.94
M $48 $52 $52 10 10 25 1.01
R $5 $3 $2 2 1 4 0.55
S $70 $80 $72 15 15 36 1.00
total $513 $491 $447 99 104 245 1.05

[formula_2002]

and by class
class wnet pnet snet e-wins a-win plays a/e roi
A $89 $60 $50 10 20 21 2.06
AO $20 $13 $12 6 4 14 0.71
C $280 $284 $259 57 54 145 0.94
M $48 $52 $52 10 10 25 1.01
R $5 $3 $2 2 1 4 0.55
S $70 $80 $72 15 15 36 1.00
total $513 $491 $447 99 104 245 1.05
TO SEE HOW THE ABOVE COMPARED TO THE OUT OF STUDY RESULTS
http://www.betitandforgetit.com/SAMCLASS.xls