Late Position / Early Points

[douglasw32]

Okay so I have heard a ton of ways to assign Early Speed, the most popular I guess being quirin ES points, and now Klein's Power of ES, William Scott had a way to do it...form the most simplistic to the hardest they all point to race position more or less.

So along the same line and scale does anyone have a way...or can think of a way to produce the same for the closer and stalker that niether runs early nor closes ?

I usually take the 1st call and the finish call and remove them...looking at the 2nd/3rd and stretch call

I assign a point value 0/1/2/3 and if really crazy consistent at es, stalking or closing a 4

Then I look at the last 2 maybe 3 speed figures, project from that what it looks like the animal might get, can get, has got, should get etc...and add in the ES/Closing/Stalking points I assigned.

This is my Field Rank... from there most winners are in the top of the list.

ANY IDEAS ON IMPROVING THIS ROUGH DRAFT?

It allows me to use any PP, bris/drf/the real paper drf, etc that way i can use the FREE ones.

:confused:

[Tom]

Closers are at the mercy of the early pace, so manyt races they run in will offer them little chance of getting up in time. I will look at the good races wehre the closer did get there, or very close, and see what kind of pace it faced. If I project a pace melt down, I look at the good races of the closers. I try to project the speed figures for the early horses under today's pace, then if a closer has a better SR, I consider it.

Say three early horses and a closer:

E 90 86
E 91 87
E 94 75
S 83 86

This closer has a competitive figure, and this match up might cause all three early horses to run sub-par numbers today. the 94 will make the 90 and 91 run harder to keep up, or run out of their comfort zones - run as pressers, not early. It will not affect the running style of the closer.

[douglasw32]

Nice :) Thanks Tom, for responding.

[shanta]

Okay so I have heard a ton of ways to assign Early Speed, the most popular I guess being quirin ES points, and now Klein's Power of ES, William Scott had a way to do it...form the most simplistic to the hardest they all point to race position more or less.

So along the same line and scale does anyone have a way...or can think of a way to produce the same for the closer and stalker that niether runs early nor closes ?

I usually take the 1st call and the finish call and remove them...looking at the 2nd/3rd and stretch call

I assign a point value 0/1/2/3 and if really crazy consistent at es, stalking or closing a 4

Then I look at the last 2 maybe 3 speed figures, project from that what it looks like the animal might get, can get, has got, should get etc...and add in the ES/Closing/Stalking points I assigned.

This is my Field Rank... from there most winners are in the top of the list.

ANY IDEAS ON IMPROVING THIS ROUGH DRAFT?

It allows me to use any PP, bris/drf/the real paper drf, etc that way i can use the FREE ones.

:confused:

Hi Doug,
Can I ask if you are wanting something to computerize (mechanical) or something when LOOKING at the pp's?

Richie

[douglasw32]

Either/or

of late I have gone back to just eyeballing the past performances (I am a weekend warrior period) but have written some pretty ok basic programs that talk to the drf exports.

This is just a method I have been having success with to a degree, but have never seen a way to quantify (easily) like the early spped formulas, a horses ability to close/ press other than knowing it is e/ep/p/s etc...

With es points there is a mechanical method behind arriving at it.

Not sure if I am being clear. :(

[shanta]

of late I have gone back to just eyeballing the past performances (I am a weekend warrior period)
This is just a method I have been having success with to a degree, but have never seen a way to quantify (easily) like the early spped formulas, a horses ability to close/ press other than knowing it is e/ep/p/s etc...
Not sure if I am being clear. :(

Your "eyeballing" seems to be doing a pretty good job Doug.

Also probably gives you a REAL feel for the race too as you are scanning with the human computer. Little things that all this formulaic stuff might not offer.

You are being very clear. You have found something that is WORKING for you.
Richie :)