Long term capital plays. Report for 520 plays.

[formula_2002]

520 plays, returned $698 in the win pool.
There were 92 actual wins and 108 Expected wins.
A .85 ROI (COMPARED TO A 1.07 ROI AT LAST REPORT.

When the final tote board odds <=4-1;
245 plays returned $482 in the win pool.
There were 83 actual wins and 80 expected wins.
A 1.04 ROI (COMPARED TO A 1.25 ROI. )

As mentioned at the outset, prior to posting these plays, the 5/2 and under final tote board odds appeared to generate the greater value.

The results for those plays were;

140 plays, returned $298.
There were 62 actual winners and 56 expected winners.
A 1.11 ROI (COMPARED TO A 1.32 ROI)

Overall, the performance was weaker than last report.

[PlanB]

Formula, if I was you're accountant I'd spank you (with a yardstick of losing tickets). OUCH. Surely, with your math/modeling knowledge, you could test another idea (or two). For Ex: What if you confine your plays to horses going off at odds, 2:1 TO 7:2. Maybe PASS on races in which a High Category of winners gummy up the results: They win a Lot but Lose Bucks. BTW, whatever happened to PASSING RACES? Give it a try.

[formula_2002]

Formula, if I was you're accountant I'd spank you (with a yardstick of losing tickets). OUCH. Surely, with your math/modeling knowledge, you could test another idea (or two). For Ex: What if you confine your plays to horses going off at odds, 2:1 TO 7:2. Maybe PASS on races in which a High Category of winners gummy up the results: They win a Lot but Lose Bucks. BTW, whatever happened to PASSING RACES? Give it a try.

PB, I have a complete incremental odds analysis for the entire out 11000+ out of sample plays that lead me to these plays..
I also have an analysis by distance, surface, track, race type, ect,etc for each individual model. If the future can not be told with this little cookie jar, then what can??

The ball is still in play ;)

[Anderon]

Formula....I applaud your number crunching, stats and back testing....Stay after it, you'll be fine !! :ThmbUp:

[whobet]

As mentioned at the outset, prior to posting these plays, the 5/2 and under final tote board odds appeared to generate the greater value.

The results for those plays were;

140 plays, returned $298.
There were 62 actual winners and 56 expected winners.
A 1.11 ROI (COMPARED TO A 1.32 ROI)


I have also seen this pattern in my studies

[formula_2002]

Glad to see there are a few intersted in the plays..

Main computer is down,,have to juggle eveything arround.

Later..