THE RISEN STAR STAKES Gulfstream R9 Circular Quay, Notional probability% +scenarios

[Robert Fischer]

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THE RISEN STAR STAKES (scenarios)
Most Likely Scenarios
1. – CIRCULAR QUAY rates well back of the cavalry charge, begins to pick up rivals into the far turn and takes command in the stretch to win The Risen Star Stakes.
"upset" Scenarios
2.- CIRCULAR QUAY has a dull effort or troubled trip, ZANJERO passes the early leaders with a late drive to win.
3.– NOTIONAL stalks the early speed, gets a breather into the turn and explodes to get the jump on late runners to win going away.


THE RISEN STAR STAKES (Wagering)
Probabilities Suggested Overlay Win Odds
WIN PROBABILITIES (ballpark estimate of win%)
Win Probability Suggested Overlay Win Odds
CIRCULAR QUAY 45% 2/1
ZANJERO 19% 6/1
NOTIONAL 14% 8/1
IZZIE’S HALO 7% 15/1
SPANKEY COME HOME 6% 18/1

[Robert Fischer]

http://www.freefilehosting.org/pupload/view/26107

[Robert Fischer]

Suggested Wager Strategy :jump:

Zanjero should be a slight overlay in the Risen Star. Use Zanjero 2nd and 3rd in trifectas. Also including Zanjero 1st in a value trifecta with Circular Quay 3rd and contenders second. Finally the exacta saver with Zanjero keyed under some “afterthought” contenders.



$1 Trifectas
4,5,9,12 w/ 4,5,8,9,11,12 w/10 =$20
4,5,9,12 w/ 10 w/ 2,4,5,8,9,11,12 = $24
10 w/ 4,8,9,11,12, w/ 5 = $5


$1 Exacta
6,7,8,11,12 w/10 =$5


Total Risk = $54.00

[Robert Fischer]

close to scenario #3
"3.– NOTIONAL stalks the early speed, gets a breather into the turn and explodes to get the jump on late runners to win going away."

Suggested Wager Strategy :jump:

Zanjero should be a slight overlay in the Risen Star. Use Zanjero 2nd and 3rd in trifectas. Also including Zanjero 1st in a value trifecta with Circular Quay 3rd and contenders second. Finally the exacta saver with Zanjero keyed under some “afterthought” contenders.

$1 Trifectas
4,5,9,12 w/ 4,5,8,9,11,12 w/10 =$20
4,5,9,12 w/ 10 w/ 2,4,5,8,9,11,12 = $24
10 w/ 4,8,9,11,12, w/ 5 = $5

$1 Exacta
6,7,8,11,12 w/10 =$5


Total Risk = $54.00

PAYOUT $153.60 (trifecta 12-8-10)
- RISK $54.00
-----------------
= $99.60 PROFIT:ThmbUp:

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