john del riccio
02-09-2007, 11:03 AM
The Whirlaway Stakes being run at AQU on saturday is a great race to try and make some comparisons. The Beyers differ in a significant way to our ratings and I would like to shed some light on these differences.
The two main horses in this comparison are SUMMER DOLDRUMS and LAWRENCE THE ROMAN. Both horses are coming out of two turn races over the inner track where they continued to improve. SUMMER DOLDRUMS exits an optional 100,000/nw1x claiming event and LAWRENECE THE ROMAN exits a 72,000 statebred restricted stake race.
Leaving class and pace aside just for the moment, here is the comparison of these two two horses last races; both run around two turns over the inner track:
HORSE----- Kuck---Beyer
======================================
SUMMER D --77 -----90
LAWRENCE --75 -----96
The Henry Kuck Ratings dictate that 1 point is equal to about 1 length and on the Beyer scale 1.5 points is equal to about 1 length in a route race. What we have here is a difference of about 6 lengths between how these two speed figures. That is a significant difference. The ML hasn't been posted as of yet but the odds in the DRF indicate that LAWRENCE TEH ROMAN
is 3-5 and SUMMER DOLDRUMS is 5-2. All I can say is that if these two horses go off at odds such as these come post time, I beleive SUMMER DOLDRUMS offers significant value over LAWRENCE THE ROMAN.
CLASS:
SUMMER DOLDRUMS earned that 77 variant rating vs.a field that was awarded a 62 class rating. The only other runner to have even run in a race against a field which earned a higher class rating was PINK VIPER.
PACE:
There is no significant edge in pace to any runner. On a fast track around two turns, SUMMER DOLDRUMS earned a 73 last out, PINK VIPER EARNED a 72, and LAWRENCE THE ROMAN earned a 71. PINK VIPER earned a 75 pace rating in a 1 turn mile as 2yo and LAWRENCE THE ROMAN earned a 74 pace ratings in a 1 turn mile as a 2yo as well but that was over a surface
labelled good. SPORTS TOWN is a sprinter that shows a 72 pace rating and a 73 variant rating going 6f and is stretching out for the fist time; ; he will likely make certain that the pace is at least honest.
SUMMER DOLDRUMS improved in his 2nd start around two turns after trying to tackle NOBIZ LIKE SHOWBIZ while racing very wide. Note that the money showed up when he won his last race as he was bet down to the 8-5 favorite. He gets his 5th jock in as many starts as Bridgmohan jumps off to ride the sprinter; SPORTS TOWN.
LAWRENCE THE ROMAN continues to improve as well as his variant ratings have gotten better as both the distances have gotten longer and the competition has gotten tougher. He runs well fresh and is trying open company for the first time where he will likely face more pressure early.
BRASS RUN ships in from PHA on the improve but making up 5-7 lengths while stepping into stakes company seems ambitious.
SIR WHIMSEY was handled quite easily by SUMER DOLDRUMS in a one turn mile and hasn't really improved his two turn ratings as a 3yo.
SPORTS TOWN has a good pedigree to strech out and has a string of 5 long and strong works in preparation for this spot. Bridgmohan stays on this mount as opposed to SUMMER DOLDRUMS.
PINK VIPER finally matched his career best variant rating while breaking from the rail last out and now he draws widest of all while not really showing the ability to rate successfully.
Here is my betting line:
SUMMER DOLDRUMS: 2-1
LAWRENCE THE ROMAN 7-2
SPORTS TOWN 4-1
You can view the Henry Kuck ratings for this race for FREE by clicking on the link below.
Good Luck,
John
http://www.woodsideassociates.com/freebie.pdf
The two main horses in this comparison are SUMMER DOLDRUMS and LAWRENCE THE ROMAN. Both horses are coming out of two turn races over the inner track where they continued to improve. SUMMER DOLDRUMS exits an optional 100,000/nw1x claiming event and LAWRENECE THE ROMAN exits a 72,000 statebred restricted stake race.
Leaving class and pace aside just for the moment, here is the comparison of these two two horses last races; both run around two turns over the inner track:
HORSE----- Kuck---Beyer
======================================
SUMMER D --77 -----90
LAWRENCE --75 -----96
The Henry Kuck Ratings dictate that 1 point is equal to about 1 length and on the Beyer scale 1.5 points is equal to about 1 length in a route race. What we have here is a difference of about 6 lengths between how these two speed figures. That is a significant difference. The ML hasn't been posted as of yet but the odds in the DRF indicate that LAWRENCE TEH ROMAN
is 3-5 and SUMMER DOLDRUMS is 5-2. All I can say is that if these two horses go off at odds such as these come post time, I beleive SUMMER DOLDRUMS offers significant value over LAWRENCE THE ROMAN.
CLASS:
SUMMER DOLDRUMS earned that 77 variant rating vs.a field that was awarded a 62 class rating. The only other runner to have even run in a race against a field which earned a higher class rating was PINK VIPER.
PACE:
There is no significant edge in pace to any runner. On a fast track around two turns, SUMMER DOLDRUMS earned a 73 last out, PINK VIPER EARNED a 72, and LAWRENCE THE ROMAN earned a 71. PINK VIPER earned a 75 pace rating in a 1 turn mile as 2yo and LAWRENCE THE ROMAN earned a 74 pace ratings in a 1 turn mile as a 2yo as well but that was over a surface
labelled good. SPORTS TOWN is a sprinter that shows a 72 pace rating and a 73 variant rating going 6f and is stretching out for the fist time; ; he will likely make certain that the pace is at least honest.
SUMMER DOLDRUMS improved in his 2nd start around two turns after trying to tackle NOBIZ LIKE SHOWBIZ while racing very wide. Note that the money showed up when he won his last race as he was bet down to the 8-5 favorite. He gets his 5th jock in as many starts as Bridgmohan jumps off to ride the sprinter; SPORTS TOWN.
LAWRENCE THE ROMAN continues to improve as well as his variant ratings have gotten better as both the distances have gotten longer and the competition has gotten tougher. He runs well fresh and is trying open company for the first time where he will likely face more pressure early.
BRASS RUN ships in from PHA on the improve but making up 5-7 lengths while stepping into stakes company seems ambitious.
SIR WHIMSEY was handled quite easily by SUMER DOLDRUMS in a one turn mile and hasn't really improved his two turn ratings as a 3yo.
SPORTS TOWN has a good pedigree to strech out and has a string of 5 long and strong works in preparation for this spot. Bridgmohan stays on this mount as opposed to SUMMER DOLDRUMS.
PINK VIPER finally matched his career best variant rating while breaking from the rail last out and now he draws widest of all while not really showing the ability to rate successfully.
Here is my betting line:
SUMMER DOLDRUMS: 2-1
LAWRENCE THE ROMAN 7-2
SPORTS TOWN 4-1
You can view the Henry Kuck ratings for this race for FREE by clicking on the link below.
Good Luck,
John
http://www.woodsideassociates.com/freebie.pdf