JAZIL CORINTHIAN DOC CHENEY Gulfstream Race 7 probability% +scenarios

[Robert Fischer]

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Gulfstream Race 7 Thursday 2/08/2007(Scenarios)
Most Likely Scenarios
1. – Corinthian stalks the pace, has to best at least one rival on the turn, and Jazil closes with a fast finish to win in the stretch.

"upset" Scenarios
2. – Corinthian stalks the pace, takes over at the top of the stretch and charges home to win this quality allowance race.
3. – Corinthian stalks the pace and falters, Jazil has traffic problems and Too Good takes over in deep stretch.
4. – Corinthian stalks the pace and falters, Jazil has traffic problems and Doc Cheney leads at the wire.
5. – Letterman’s Humor and Juniper Knight do not fire, King of Jazz sets a slow pace and hangs on to upset the field.


Gulfstream Race 7 Thursday 2/08/2007 (Wagering)
WIN PROBABILITIES (ballpark estimate of win%)
Win Probability and "Suggested Overlay Win Odds"
JAZIL 45% 2/1
CORINTHIAN 20% 5/1
TOO GOOD 10% 14/1
DOC CHENEY 9% 15/1
KING OF JAZZ 7% 20/1

[Robert Fischer]

Suggested Wager Strategy :jump:
Jazil is a quality horse with quality connections. His style of running and talent level means that he has a very high probability of an in-the-money finish today. The proper play here is an investment in units of twenty dollars on Jazil to show. The low probable show odds 1.05/1 will be hard to sell to the recreational Horse Player, so I will include three options here.


Option A: (suggested) (low risk, low return)
$20.00 to show #7

Option B: (low risk, loss-moderate return)
$1 Trifectas
7 w/ 1,2,6,8 w/ all = $20
1,2,6,8 w/ 7 w/ all = $20
1,2,6,8 w/ 1,2,6,8 w/ 7 = $12
Total Risk =$52.00

Option C: (small investment, moderate risk, moderate return)
$1 Exacta
1,2,6,7 w/ 8 = $4.00

[formula_2002]

Looks like a bit of a profit. Yes?

[Robert Fischer]

Looks like a bit of a profit. Yes?

Yes. Thank You.

Sometimes a race is a calculated investment rather than a gamble.
Full report PDF File free http://www.freefilehosting.org/public/35907/Gulfstream%20R7%20JAZIL%20CORINTHIAN%20DOC%20CHENE Y.pdf

Race outcome was pretty close to scenario #2. -
"2. – Corinthian stalks the pace, takes over at the top of the stretch and charges home to win this quality allowance race. "

Option A: (suggested) (low risk, low return)
$20.00 to show #7
PAYOUT= $21.00
RESULT = $1.00 PROFIT (5% on the dollar)(SUGGESTED WAGER)

Option B: (low risk, loss-moderate return)
$1 Trifectas
7 w/ 1,2,6,8 w/ all = $20
1,2,6,8 w/ 7 w/ all = $20
1,2,6,8 w/ 1,2,6,8 w/ 7 = $12
Total Risk =$52.00
$1 TRIFECTA 2-7-8 PAYOUT= $55.80
RESULT = $3.80 PROFIT

Option C: (small investment, moderate risk, moderate return)
$1 Exacta
1,2,6,7 w/ 8 = $4.00
PAYOUT= $0.00
RESULT = $4.00 LOSS

BET ALL 3 = RESULT = $0.80 PROFIT