HTR Spot Plays going up FOR SALE

[LurkingBettor]

Guys & Gals,

The Pinnacle debacle couldn't have hit at a worse time for me and I've decided to quit using HTR and get out of the daily grind. For those that don't know me, I've had some good success on the tournament trail including 3 times to the NHC and was just starting to fine tune my play for daily use.

You would need HTR (free) and a subscription to HDW for their data ($119/mo). If you can still play through Pinnacle, or, plan on playing through Premier Turf Club, so much the better. Here's what I posted over there with a link to the ongoing thread. Please contact me if you have any interest.

All,

In light of some recent events, I’ve decided to end my HDW subscription and forego the grind of attempting to beat this game on a daily basis. I have spent several hours a day for the last 2 years developing some spot plays to be submitted through Pinny. Well, we all know what happened to that option.

For the period 1/05 – 12/06, I have 19 plays that are profitable (positive ROI) BEFORE rebate. There are a couple more that show a profit for the period 8/05 – 12/06. There are another 5 to 10 more the past two years that show a small loss (negative ROI) but with a small rebate and/or a little tweaking will show a profit.

It doesn’t look like I would ever be able to meet Premier Turf Club’s minimum monthly activity levels. Therefore, I’m going to put these plays up for sale, on the auction block, or some combination thereof. You will need a rudimentary level knowledge of Access to generate these out of the HX4 and HX5 exports.

Again, I have no current data (and, I give Ken Massa permission to verify that), so, I won’t be playing these spot plays. If anyone has any interest at all, please email me at: lotto winner @ hushmail.com (remove all the spaces)

And, no, I didn’t hit the lottery, unless you count that whopping $3 win about ten years ago. :lol:

Good luck.

http://www.homebased2.com/forums/showthread.php?p=58558#post58558

[acorn54]

i am curious why you just don't use your angles of play betting with fivedimes. they give a 10 percent rebate on win bets?
acorn

[ryesteve]

i am curious why you just don't use your angles of play betting with fivedimes. they give a 10 percent rebate on win bets?
acorn
... or just use the ones that are profitable without a rebate, and bet at the track

[LurkingBettor]

Guys, I guess the simple answer is burnout. Secondarily, I had everything set up to submit bets to Pinnacle via ATR. Pinnacle is not an option and ATR is not working for me due to an issue with BrisNet SuperTote (see a related thread in the computer section). Thirdly, and probably most importantly, I'm not subscribing to HTR data source any more.

[traynor]

Guys, I guess the simple answer is burnout. Secondarily, I had everything set up to submit bets to Pinnacle via ATR. Pinnacle is not an option and ATR is not working for me due to an issue with BrisNet SuperTote (see a related thread in the computer section). Thirdly, and probably most importantly, I'm not subscribing to HTR data source any more.


Before someone goes gaga over the idea of spot plays, you should find out the size of the data model used to create them. HTR has a serious flaw, in that it "locates" spot plays that may be based on one or two aberrant mutuels (meaning very unlikely to repeat if you bet the "+W%"). If the spot plays are based on anything less than 500 races each, I would be highly skeptical, and only modestly skeptical if based on 1000 races each. That is each category, not the entire base.

This is not to suggest HTR is in any way defective; I tested it for months and found it to be useful, if a bit limited. The Minnetonka software uses the same approach, and if you sign up, offers a whole schlonk of "models" and "filter settings" developed by users that are supposedly "profitable." All free, and worth every penny.

[shanta]

Before someone goes gaga over the idea of spot plays, you should find out the size of the data model used to create them. HTR has a serious flaw, in that it "locates" spot plays that may be based on one or two aberrant mutuels (meaning very unlikely to repeat if you bet the "+W%"). If the spot plays are based on anything less than 500 races each, I would be highly skeptical, and only modestly skeptical if based on 1000 races each. That is each category, not the entire base.


I absolutely wouldn't depend on a software spot play method where the users have won close to $500,000.00 in 2006 ALONE and SWEPT the top 2 positions in the Gold Coast fall tourney while placing THREE in the top 20 and TWO in the top 10 of the recently concluded NTRA championships.

I mean I would demand to see at least $2,000,000.00 in winnings no? :)

I also believe DS uses 100 race in his rapid fire play with HSH and he seems to be doing pretty darn well

To each his own
Richie

[Tom]

The spot plays, if you read his post, come from an Access database, not the HTR software.

[ranchwest]

The spot plays, if you read his post, come from an Access database, not the HTR software.

From HTR exports.

[DanG]

HTR has a serious flaw, in that it "locates" spot plays that may be based on one or two aberrant mutuels (meaning very unlikely to repeat if you bet the "+W%")
For the record, this statement could not possibly be more false. The fact that you claim to have used the software and still make this statement is almost comical. :ThmbDown:

[njcurveball]

It is hard to say what the current value of spot plays is these days. Books were sold years ago charging $100 or more for what a program like HTR can do in a matter on minutes. Spot plays were also sold for $100 or more and that was just for one play.

The trainer data that is still sold for amazing prices is part of the download as well. When you see a trainer has a positive ROI with first time starters or layoffs or whatever, many times that is also based on one high priced winner.

HDW data is the curent "Gold Standard" in racing today. Programs like HTR and HSH allow a User to export this data to a database and do hundreds, even thousands of regression tests. Some of this testing can be "backfit" to show a profit, I think we all know that. Most of the books written before 1990 or so simply used "backfit" data and cards where the Authors recipe of rules would shine.

It takes a huge slice of time to "crunch" this data and some people just are not cut out to do it. That doesn't downgrade their skills as a handicapper. It is the age-old artistic v.s. logical brain debate.

I think it is fair to inquire about the size of the sample and the win% and avg price. Also fair to ask for the highest priced winner.

As for any flaw on spotting high priced winners. I would love to have a flaw like that when a $200 horse crosses the wire first at Gulfstream.

Hopefully if someone has the desire to purchase these, he or she would use them as sort of a "starter" set to gain some profit and learn the tool.

I am sure some of you guys are very talented with a jigsaw. I would probably slice my hand off with one. However, I would not blame the tool for doing it and tell you it had a flaw simply because I could not use it.

2 handed Jim

[njcurveball]

Hey I found something in another thread posting by a user named TRAYNOR!

I think this fits this thread like a glove. Thanks Traynor!

The same people who claim to dislike software applications express similar disdain for selections services, yet both are thriving and doing well, despite the widespread "denial" of use. It must be that the consistent users discover things about the software or selections that the casual users and dabblers never see. Or it may just be that after some time passes, the successful users gave up and actually read the instructions.

[ryesteve]

The folks who are asking questions about the size and makeup of the sample on which these spot plays were developed are missing the point. The real question is, how have these spot plays performed on the races AFTER those on which it was developed.

Using any decent piece of software it is easy... yes, EASY to develop spot play methods that are quite profitable when applied to the dataset that you used to fit it. Even when you're talking about 2 years worth of data. The real trick is getting those results to continue into the future.

So anyone who is considering buying these should want to know when exactly these spot plays were devised, and how have they performed since?

[traynor]

I absolutely wouldn't depend on a software spot play method where the users have won close to $500,000.00 in 2006 ALONE and SWEPT the top 2 positions in the Gold Coast fall tourney while placing THREE in the top 20 and TWO in the top 10 of the recently concluded NTRA championships.

I mean I would demand to see at least $2,000,000.00 in winnings no? :)

I also believe DS uses 100 race in his rapid fire play with HSH and he seems to be doing pretty darn well

To each his own
Richie

Are you saying these figures quoted above apply to the person offering the spot plays for sale? Or just the software?

[traynor]

The spot plays, if you read his post, come from an Access database, not the HTR software.

Uhhhh. Then what is the connection--if any--to HTR?

[traynor]

For the record, this statement could not possibly be more false. The fact that you claim to have used the software and still make this statement is almost comical. :ThmbDown:

HTR calculates a simple average of mutuels to derive figures for WPS returns. No one with any experience actually wagering would consider the result to be anything except misleading. One winner in a 100 race sample can bump an overall loss of 15-20% to "seem to be" a profit of 15-20%. Bet on it, I like the free money. :lol:

[traynor]

Hey I found something in another thread posting by a user named TRAYNOR!

I think this fits this thread like a glove. Thanks Traynor!

The same people who claim to dislike software applications express similar disdain for selections services, yet both are thriving and doing well, despite the widespread "denial" of use. It must be that the consistent users discover things about the software or selections that the casual users and dabblers never see. Or it may just be that after some time passes, the successful users gave up and actually read the instructions.

Yup. It also means those discoveries may be useless to those unwilling to do the work themselves, and simply bet blindly on faith, hope, and wishful thinking. I don't think that the successful user is successful because he or she learned a few tricks or spot plays, or that another user (with less experience and less effort involved in the learning process that led to the success) can necessarily replicate the results. Access database or no.

[traynor]

The folks who are asking questions about the size and makeup of the sample on which these spot plays were developed are missing the point. The real question is, how have these spot plays performed on the races AFTER those on which it was developed.

Using any decent piece of software it is easy... yes, EASY to develop spot play methods that are quite profitable when applied to the dataset that you used to fit it. Even when you're talking about 2 years worth of data. The real trick is getting those results to continue into the future.

So anyone who is considering buying these should want to know when exactly these spot plays were devised, and how have they performed since?

WOW. Well said. That is precisely the issue. From a forecasting perspective, historical evidence may or may not be predictive of the outcome of future events. Larger samples increase the probability of correlations, but are in no way a guarantee of future success.

[njcurveball]

WOW. Well said. That is precisely the issue. From a forecasting perspective, historical evidence may or may not be predictive of the outcome of future events. Larger samples increase the probability of correlations, but are in no way a guarantee of future success.


So if you do not trust historical evidence, how do you make your selections that you sell to suckers who do not want do the work themselves?

[LurkingBettor]

Traynor, thank you for bumping my thread every few minutes. From your website (emphasis added by poster):

“You get DDSS Professional Graded Ratings for every ratable race at major tracks plus 10 to 30 DDSS Professional Spot Plays, positive ROI spot plays extracted from the hundreds of races scheduled every racing day. All for just $300 for 30 days of the best ratings money can buy!”

How is what I’m doing any different from what you’re doing? Except mine isn’t a ripoff? (emphasis and opinion added by poster)

For those of you that don’t even know me, thank you for supporting HTR and myself. For those that do know me, and have sat with me on the tournament trail over the last 5 years, I’ve enjoyed it.

Some of you have brought up some important questions and concerns, most of which have been addressed in the thread on the other board. Any other legitimate questions, please email me at the address provided. I’m not going to get into a pissing match on PA’s board.

[njcurveball]

Yup. It also means those discoveries may be useless to those unwilling to do the work themselves, and simply bet blindly on faith, hope, and wishful thinking.

Well I would agree that if someone decided to buy these and never use the HTR program and all of the features, it would certainly be a waste.

But I am perhaps even more confused by your involvement in a selection service. I was hired by a similar operation a long time ago. I was told my selections were "too pricey". You can give out a $40 horse every two weeks and show a nice profit on a daily best bet.

But people stop calling after the 3rd or 4th day if your horses lose. And when the 20-1 shot wins easy, they did not bet it because of the odds. I was told I needed to pick mostly favorites, so I guess I can understand why you did not like using something that would take you out of your comfort level.

Perhaps with your talent, you can broaden your selection strategy to include some longshots. I assure you they wont come in the winners circle as often as favorites, but the money will stay in your pocket a lot longer!

[DanG]

HTR calculates a simple average of mutuels to derive figures for WPS returns. No one with any experience actually wagering would consider the result to be anything except misleading. One winner in a 100 race sample can bump an overall loss of 15-20% to "seem to be" a profit of 15-20%. Bet on it, I like the free money. :lol:
This has been a very good days in many ways. The fact that I will never respond to anything you bother to write has only increased its value.

Far easier to impersonate the referee than to actually participate.

Enjoy your life my friend! :ThmbUp:

[Tom]

Uhhhh. Then what is the connection--if any--to HTR?

The export data contains not only general stuff, but HTR ratings as well. It is a data file - the users put into Access and then querry plays. The HTR ratings are not available anywhere else.

[shanta]

I have a friend who is a user of Htr.

He calls me up at the start of the SA meet.

Tells me he has this spot play(propietary to Htr btw) that over the last 2 years at Sa on the 6.5f turf course is producing large profits. Now how many races at this distance could possibly have run in 2 years?? 60? 100? I don't know.

First week of THIS meet he emails me ONE horse each 6.5f turf race that runs. 2 winners

25/1
forget the other offhand but it was more than 4/1.

So while the long-term guys are busy gathering data (it's all good btw) this guy was COLLECTING. That one winner practically covers the WHOLE MEET.Last year he had 2 BOMBS. Year before a few more. This in ADDITION to any other "normal" winners. So is he supposed to ignore the FACT that this play is getting bombs regularly? I really don't get this but then again I am not the smartest bulb in the fixture

Fwiw I do NOT use the software but have a great deal of respect for Ken and the folks there. CLASS is an often overused term but NOT in this case man.

CLASS OUTFIT and CLASS MEMBERS

Richie

[traynor]

So if you do not trust historical evidence, how do you make your selections that you sell to suckers who do not want do the work themselves?

By applying standard statistical and data modeling processes to the dataset, rather than using third grade arithmetic and calling it rocket science.

[traynor]

Traynor, thank you for bumping my thread every few minutes. From your website (emphasis added by poster):

“You get DDSS Professional Graded Ratings for every ratable race at major tracks plus 10 to 30 DDSS Professional Spot Plays, positive ROI spot plays extracted from the hundreds of races scheduled every racing day. All for just $300 for 30 days of the best ratings money can buy!”

How is what I’m doing any different from what you’re doing? Except mine isn’t a ripoff? (emphasis and opinion added by poster)

For those of you that don’t even know me, thank you for supporting HTR and myself. For those that do know me, and have sat with me on the tournament trail over the last 5 years, I’ve enjoyed it.

Some of you have brought up some important questions and concerns, most of which have been addressed in the thread on the other board. Any other legitimate questions, please email me at the address provided. I’m not going to get into a pissing match on PA’s board.


If you bothered to actually read the instructions, rather than picking some minor point that seems to agree with you, it is as clearly stated that the modeling processes used to create the "positive ROI" truncate outliers. That ain't rocket science; every college freshman gets a big dose of it, unless he or she happens to be majoring in English Lit or equivalent.

[traynor]

Well I would agree that if someone decided to buy these and never use the HTR program and all of the features, it would certainly be a waste.

But I am perhaps even more confused by your involvement in a selection service. I was hired by a similar operation a long time ago. I was told my selections were "too pricey". You can give out a $40 horse every two weeks and show a nice profit on a daily best bet.

But people stop calling after the 3rd or 4th day if your horses lose. And when the 20-1 shot wins easy, they did not bet it because of the odds. I was told I needed to pick mostly favorites, so I guess I can understand why you did not like using something that would take you out of your comfort level.

Perhaps with your talent, you can broaden your selection strategy to include some longshots. I assure you they wont come in the winners circle as often as favorites, but the money will stay in your pocket a lot longer!


Great advice, to which I must express both my agreement and my thanks. In my own selections, I have pretty well dumped the idea of favorites being worthy of consideration. Most people who buy ratings (or use software) want immediate gratification--big profit every day. It ain't gonna happen.

[traynor]

This has been a very good days in many ways. The fact that I will never respond to anything you bother to write has only increased its value.

Far easier to impersonate the referee than to actually participate.

Enjoy your life my friend! :ThmbUp:

I do, and I will. Thank you for caring.

[betovernetcapper]

Yeah and the ddss rating also work on greyhounds and trotters. :lol:

[bigmack]

Well this thread is playing out exactly as I had suspected. The genesis of the thread, while well intended, was also an invitation for the likes of a Traynr to poopoo spot plays, HTR, HDW and whatever else to shore up his level of knowledge, which appears shotty at best.

If someone wants to buy plays from the guy, let em. Anything else on the sub is silly.

[traynor]

I have a friend who is a user of Htr.

He calls me up at the start of the SA meet.

Tells me he has this spot play(propietary to Htr btw) that over the last 2 years at Sa on the 6.5f turf course is producing large profits. Now how many races at this distance could possibly have run in 2 years?? 60? 100? I don't know.

First week of THIS meet he emails me ONE horse each 6.5f turf race that runs. 2 winners

25/1
forget the other offhand but it was more than 4/1.

So while the long-term guys are busy gathering data (it's all good btw) this guy was COLLECTING. That one winner practically covers the WHOLE MEET.Last year he had 2 BOMBS. Year before a few more. This in ADDITION to any other "normal" winners. So is he supposed to ignore the FACT that this play is getting bombs regularly? I really don't get this but then again I am not the smartest bulb in the fixture

Fwiw I do NOT use the software but have a great deal of respect for Ken and the folks there. CLASS is an often overused term but NOT in this case man.

CLASS OUTFIT and CLASS MEMBERS

Richie


I mostly agree with you, Richie, especially about HTR and Ken Massa. You will find a lengthy posting on another thread that I made complimenting Ken and highly recommending his application. That is not the issue at all.

Similarly, the issue of short-range results that may or may not replicate a larger sample is not the issue. If what you are doing is profitable, by all means keep doing it.
Good Luck

[traynor]

Yeah and the ddss rating also work on greyhounds and trotters. :lol:

They sure do, PA. Thanks for the free plug!

[betovernetcapper]

I'm sure you need it.

[traynor]

Well this thread is playing out exactly as I had suspected. The genesis of the thread, while well intended, was also an invitation for the likes of a Traynr to poopoo spot plays, HTR, HDW and whatever else to shore up his level of knowledge, which appears shotty at best.

If someone wants to buy plays from the guy, let em. Anything else on the sub is silly.

On the contrary, I have nothing but good things to say about HTR, said nothing about HDW, and commented primarily on the possibility that spot plays derived from unadjusted (as in "corrected for anomalies") data may not accurately represent the potential for future events replicating the results in a different sample.

If that concept seems too convoluted or complex, it may be a lack on your part, rather than mine.

[bigmack]

On the contrary, I have nothing but good things to say about HTR, said nothing about HDW, and commented primarily on the possibility that spot plays derived from unadjusted (as in "corrected for anomalies") data may not accurately represent the potential for future events replicating the results in a different sample.

If that concept seems too convoluted or complex, it may be a lack on your part, rather than mine.
Do yourself and others a favor & wrap it up with this thread. Particularly in light of the fact that you're in the spot play selling bidness. You know, simply recuse yourself as it's a conflict of interest. K?

[traynor]

I'm sure you need it.

Just as I am sure your advertisers love frivolous clicks.

[Hosshead]

The HTR sw has a data mining option for setting the Actual odds or ML Odds to whatever limit/range you want.

So there's no problem eliminating unusually high payoffs from the results.

[traynor]

The HTR sw has a data mining option for setting the Actual odds or ML Odds to whatever limit/range you want.

So there's no problem eliminating unusually high payoffs from the results.

Great! And with this valuable piece of inside information, HTR users can set Robot to eliminate outliers, re-run their spot plays, and get some good, usable information. That would make their spot plays all the more valuable; if that particular play pops a biggie every once in awhile (which HTR does quite well), it is a bonus. All the good, without the bad of expecting an "11% POI because my 100 race model says so."

Again, thanks for the comment.

[K9Pup]

On the contrary, I have nothing but good things to say about HTR, said nothing about HDW, and commented primarily on the possibility that spot plays derived from unadjusted (as in "corrected for anomalies") data may not accurately represent the potential for future events replicating the results in a different sample.

If that concept seems too convoluted or complex, it may be a lack on your part, rather than mine.

So when you post results of your plays on your website do you include "anomalies"?? If so do you indicate them as such?

[Murph]

I give up ... who are you?
Murph
Traynor, thank you for bumping my thread every few minutes. From your website (emphasis added by poster):

“You get DDSS Professional Graded Ratings for every ratable race at major tracks plus 10 to 30 DDSS Professional Spot Plays, positive ROI spot plays extracted from the hundreds of races scheduled every racing day. All for just $300 for 30 days of the best ratings money can buy!”

How is what I’m doing any different from what you’re doing? Except mine isn’t a ripoff? (emphasis and opinion added by poster)

For those of you that don’t even know me, thank you for supporting HTR and myself. For those that do know me, and have sat with me on the tournament trail over the last 5 years, I’ve enjoyed it.

Some of you have brought up some important questions and concerns, most of which have been addressed in the thread on the other board. Any other legitimate questions, please email me at the address provided. I’m not going to get into a pissing match on PA’s board.

[betovernetcapper]

:) If your asking about Lurking Bettor-he's Cliff from the HTR board where he

registered in 2001 and seems to be well thought of.

If your taking about Traynor-well that's a different story. One minute he

claims to be a grad student (interestingly never mentions the school-probably

a junior college)- a computer authority-another a harness expert-an

authority on blackjack-head of a greyhound/harness/thoroughbred think

tank/tout service who still finds time to post here 2.19 times a day. As his

site doesn't give a name or address, the question of who he is remains in

doubt, but I think there is no question of what he is.
:)

[PaceAdvantage]

This thread has gone way off topic, so it shall be closed.