Racing Styles

[Handiman]

With all of the interest in Jim Bradshaw's book around here, I thought it would be good to hear what you think about the running style designations that the data providers make available in their data files. I have only really looked at the ones from TSN. I'm wondering if using styles provided in data files will do, or should I make my own. Easy enough to do. But with all the stuff I do now, just thought maybe no need to re-invent the wheel.


Handi

[kingfin66]

Interesting that you should ask. I just picked up the great Schmidt/Hambleton collaboration, Pace Makes the Race. In it, Hambleton describes a method that he uses to assign each horse a running style. He also said that he had it programmed.

I could never describe it in detail without typing word for word. What he does, is evaluate horses based on their 1/4 mile time - that is that 1st 1/4 mile, and the ratings fall from there. It is very interesting and ingenious. He said that he was inspired by Jim Cramer when it came to his method. I would check it out as you could likely duplicate the programming being the programmer that you are.

As far as the TSN ratings go, I don't always agree with the running style assignments, but do appreciate the Quirin Speed Points listed next to each running style. If you are willing to put up with the misassigned styles, but find the numbers workable, then stick with TSN. If, on the other hand, you want to have a method that assigns running styles, and ranks them, then check out Hambleton's method.

[raybo]

I, too, just read of an interesting way to make running styles.

At each call, assign a letter: P for pacer (0 to 2.5 lgths behind leader), S for stalker (>2.5 to 4.0 lgths), T for trailer (>4.0 lgths). Then combine them into a string like "TTSP". Different? Yeah, and you can add the Quirin number to it like: "3TTSP" or "TTSP3" or "TTSP-3", etc.

[Tom]

I don't use anyone's running style designations - not even HTR/HDW. I do not believe any coputer can ever gt it right all the time, and I make my own calls - no set rules, just my impression of what is a need the lead and what is not. what presses and what doesn't. I look at each horse in relation to the rest of the field, after scratches.

[Handiman]

Ray,

Very interesting way to do it.

King,

I happen to have that book sitting right here on the couch next to me. I have actually programmed in hidden turn times in my main program. I have hit a couple of very nice winners just by finding the horse with a 21.01-21.99 hidden turn time.

I really need to understand and develop a good way of throwing horses out like Bradshaw does because they are too slow or don't stand a chance to catch up because of they're being late runners. I am improving though. I hit the first three at Penn and just hit the 7th too. No big pays but wins nonetheless with just 2 horses. Hit 3 exactas too with just boxing two horses.

Handi

[Handiman]

Tom,

Although you don't let a computer do the designations, the computer in your head is doing them. You have to use some physical criteria to judge a horse's running style. If not, I'd sure be interested in how you make the decisions without comparing some form of numbers.

Handi

[raybo]

I don't use anyone's running style designations - not even HTR/HDW. I do not believe any coputer can ever gt it right all the time, and I make my own calls - no set rules, just my impression of what is a need the lead and what is not. what presses and what doesn't. I look at each horse in relation to the rest of the field, after scratches.

I don't either, just happened to run across the article. It does sound a little different than other ways I've seen, and possibly a little more accurate way of doing it, as well. Especially if your computer figures it for you for every running line listed, you could probably see pretty quickly if a horse really does have a particular running style. Many horses don't have a style. They just do what they can do against what they're running against.

[Tom]

Tom,

Although you don't let a computer do the designations, the computer in your head is doing them. You have to use some physical criteria to judge a horse's running style. If not, I'd sure be interested in how you make the decisions without comparing some form of numbers.

Handi


No numbers at all - strictly running postions, and I have no problem totally ignoring several pacelines and focus only on ones I feel are relevant to today's race.

[ranchwest]

A few years ago someone, I believe it was CJ, posted a formula for running styles. I'm still using it. Thanks, by the way!

I did add on a little. Instead of just using "N" or "N/A" for not qualified, I segregate the maidens with an "M" for maiden not qualified or an "F" for first time starter. That helps me a lot to pick up on the status at a glance.

I have a printout that shows both the data provider's designation and the one from the formula.

Since Tom seems to be heavy into pace, I would imagine his idea of assigning running styles is probably strong for him, but I'm not that deep into pace so I spend my time elsewhere.

[Handiman]

I happened to miss the change where they went from numbers representing running positions to pictures , diagrams or whatever you are using to represent running positions in a race.

I know I sound a bit surly, but I'm trying to learn something here from people much better at this than I am. I consider you, Tom, as one of those people. So that is why I am questioning what you just posted. I'm really confused how you are using running positions to designate style without the use of numbers.

Handi

[PriceAnProbability]

I don't use anyone's running style designations - not even HTR/HDW. I do not believe any coputer can ever gt it right all the time, and I make my own calls - no set rules, just my impression of what is a need the lead and what is not. what presses and what doesn't. I look at each horse in relation to the rest of the field, after scratches.

Another factor is that the horse with the top speed figure can usually control the pace.

[44PACE]

I never use the Running Styles provided in any of the PPs or programs. I would say that 70 % of my time spent handicapping a race is on determining Running styles for individual horses.What ever you use to come up with your determination it is important that it is consistant.For me I will look at both Position and beaten Lenghts at the first and second calls and look at how a horse distributes its velocity.I will look over all the running lines and do comparisons and see which one or ones are the best for the horse.

The most important thing is to make good predictions of todays race and who will be where at the first 2 calls.

[classhandicapper]

I don't use anyone's running style designations - not even HTR/HDW. I do not believe any computer can ever gt it right all the time, and I make my own calls - no set rules, just my impression of what is a need the lead and what is not. what presses and what doesn't. I look at each horse in relation to the rest of the field, after scratches.

I agree totally.

I think you even have to consider what the jockey will logically want to do given various scenarios. Granted, some jockeys make terrible decisions, but often the very best ones logically get more or less aggressive to maximize the chances of their horse winning. I saw a couple of examples of that yesterday where sharp jocks took horses to the lead in scenarios where it made sense to do so even though on paper the horse really didn't really look like the best "early" horse. It just looked like the "best horse".

[Tom]

I happened to miss the change where they went from numbers representing running positions to pictures , diagrams or whatever you are using to represent running positions in a race.

I know I sound a bit surly, but I'm trying to learn something here from people much better at this than I am. I consider you, Tom, as one of those people. So that is why I am questioning what you just posted. I'm really confused how you are using running positions to designate style without the use of numbers.

Handi

My basic assumption is that the first call is postional to horses. A presser who can run 22 will not seccessarilay lead an early horse who runs in 22.4. I have found most horses are more apt to do whatever it takes to get into thier comfort zone - and many will be eliminated from contention by doing this. A horse who nees the lead and can do it in 22.4 but faces another need the lead horse who can do it in 22 is not a factor for me. A presser who can run 22 can be sitting in butter in a match up like this.
I spend most of my time differentiating between early and need the lead horses. This is where the guts of the pace come to play for me. I am less concerned over pressers, sustained pressers, late, closers, etc. I do not know what to do with them until I see how the front end looks.

Once I have identified where the early types liket o be, or need to be, I look at times or pace ratings to see if they can do it, or have done it before. Many horses will be acceptable to me if I call them EP, or E/P, but throwouts if I call them F (NTL).

Look at Aqu - Race 2, 1-Bythebeautifulsea, an E6 in BRIS.
Is this horse a need to lead horses, or just an early horse? If it is a NTL, I will throw it out if it cannot take the lead today. If I call it an EP, I leave it in if it figures to be close.
His third race back - in which he passed two horses from the pace call to the wire - even in defeat, makes me call him an EP, not a NTL. Small subltley in one race, but often times it means keeping the winner in or throwing him out. (I did not bet this guy after all, but I kept him in as part of the early pace).

[46zilzal]

Look at Aqu - Race 2, 1-Bythebeautifulsea, an E6 in BRIS.
Is this horse a need to lead horses, or just an early horse? If it is a NTL, I will throw it out if it cannot take the lead today. If I call it an EP, I leave it in if it figures to be close.
His third race back - in which he passed two horses from the pace call to the wire - even in defeat, makes me call him an EP, not a NTL. Small subltley in one race, but often times it means keeping the winner in or throwing him out. (I did not bet this guy after all, but I kept him in as part of the early pace).
energy distribution is both consistent and EARLY save one route where this one got an easy early challenge. RIGHT SMACK DAB in the middle of the normal range for that track and distance.


Early horses DO NOT need to take the lead to still be EARLY.

[Handiman]

Tom,


Thank you for your explanation. That certainly helped. I understand your approach much better now.

Handi

[Pell Mell]

First of all, i want all of you to know I really respect the knowledge displayed here. Some very interesting stuff to a VERY old timer like me.

Speaking of Ray Taulbot, I met him one time and had some conversation with him. One thing he said was that handicappers don't pay enough attention to what a trainer is doing or trying to do with any particular horse.

Since this thread is dealing with running styles I'd like to add something. Having known numerous trainers I've noticed that one of their main concerns is how to get a speed horse to rate. In case you haven't noticed, horses that have always had the lead or ran on the pace and consistantly tire and all of a sudden come from off the pace to win or are very close at the finish, are usually able to step up in company and go on to bigger and better things.

A top notch trainer named Arnold Winick, when asked what is the biggest mistake handicappers make, said; "They overlook the obvious!".

It is just my sense that one may get so involved in the numbers game that what is forgotten, is that we are dealing with flesh and blood and each of these animals has it's own temperment. As proof of this, take notice of how many times a horse shows dramatic improvement under a new trainer and keeps getting better.

So when deciding the shape of a race one must be aware of any changes in the running styles of certain horses. A speed horse that learns to rate can usually handle any kind of pace when placed properly. IMO

[Handiman]

Hey Pell,


You are just the guy to ask this question. For years I hear about trainers putting a horse in a race with no intention of trying to win. One thing I have wondered about, is how much does it cost to run a horse in a race? I don't mean one of the big grade races or top Handicap races. I'm talking more about your everyday claiming races and maiden races at your average track.

I've never met or talked to a trainer. It seems as though it makes sense to try and win when you spend time with a horse training him to do just that, go out and win. Or is it so cheap to enter these races that entering and not caring about purse money is no problem. If it were me training a horse and getting it ready to run, and then enter him in a race for a tuneup only to loose him to a claim....well I'd be pretty pissed off to be honest. Plus as an owner I wouldn't be happy either.

What do you think?


Handi

[Pell Mell]

I haven't been involved for some years but I can tell you how it used to be and actually, just my opinion, I don't think there's too much difference now except for a few items.

Entering a race usually only involved the jocks fee which, now remember, I'm talking about years ago, was only $40 for a journeyman and $25 for a bug boy. Back then most jocks didn't get a % of the purse unless it was an added money race.

Purses were much lower then, especially at the Bull Rings and trainers tried to cash a ticket now and then.

Several things that I think have changed trainers operations a lot is the higher purses available with the added money from slots. A lot of trainers can keep an owner happy by picking up checks and since finishing 5th can get you a check they send the horse regardless of the odds. They do this with reservations however, in that there is year round racing now, trainers don't have to send a horse back in a few days because there are plenty of shots to take. They can race a horse every couple of weeks and will also give instructions not to press too hard in order to not throw the horse off form.

In the old days, when winter came it was either ship to FL or lay up till spring. Lots more opportunities now to keep picking up steady checks.

Most of the leading trainers have total control over a horse as to where it's entered. If the owners don't like it, find another trainer. That's why you see guys like Hollendorfer, Lake, and others constantly dropping horses out of the sky. As far as winning goes, nothing works like a drop in class!

Which brings us back to trainers stiffing horses in order to get a price. There was a time when all tracks had the Jailhouse rule which meant that any claimed horse must race for a claiming price 25% higher than it was claimed for until 30 days passed. Probably the oldest trick in the book is to get a horse down in class before it's sent to win. This usually insures bigger odds because the public has a short memory. This rule discouraged a lot of claims. Now I see that a lot of tracks no longer have this rule and a claimed horse can run right back for a price LESS than it was claimed for.

I don't think many trainers will actually tell an owner exactly what he's doing and a lot of times will say he has a shot but it's a tough race. Then there are some owners that won't let a trainer drop a horse because a lot of owners consider their horse a pet.

As for expenses, a lot of owners are racing for fun and prestige and money is no object. The top trainers, who drop horses 2 and 3 classes at a time, usually have so many owners who are only interested in winning, that they make a damn good living just from the everyday training fees and a % of the purse.

I do see some trainers still setting a horse up for a score by dropping a horse in class but at the wrong distance or surface, etc. but it's risky to do that at tracks like LRL with no Jailhouse rule because some one will hook the horse.

One other thing I notice that's different is the jockey situation. I think that now a' days one has to pay a lot more attention to the jockeys. There are 2-3 jocks that get most of the good rides at most tracks. Even at BEU where you see boxcar mutuals most of these are ridden by one of the leading jocks and they play musical chairs.

If I forgot anything let me know.:)

[PriceAnProbability]

I never use the Running Styles provided in any of the PPs or programs. I would say that 70 % of my time spent handicapping a race is on determining Running styles for individual horses.What ever you use to come up with your determination it is important that it is consistant.For me I will look at both Position and beaten Lenghts at the first and second calls and look at how a horse distributes its velocity.I will look over all the running lines and do comparisons and see which one or ones are the best for the horse.

The most important thing is to make good predictions of todays race and who will be where at the first 2 calls.

I know it's sacrilege to many, but I stopped using pace as a handicapping factor years ago, with the exception of extreme examples (such as duels to the lead to a :45 flat or closes from the sky off those fractions), and with a slight bias towards good finishers to complete my exotics once the top rated horse is home.

My ROI didn't suffer a bit, just as it didn't suffer when I stopped trip handicapping. I think the public has more than digested these two factors to the point that they are properly priced into the market. I can't say the same thing for other factors.

[Good4Now]

I know it's sacrilege to many, but I stopped using pace as a handicapping factor years ago, with the exception of extreme examples (such as duels to the lead to a :45 flat or closes from the sky off those fractions), and with a slight bias towards good finishers to complete my exotics once the top rated horse is home.

My ROI didn't suffer a bit, just as it didn't suffer when I stopped trip handicapping. I think the public has more than digested these two factors to the point that they are properly priced into the market. I can't say the same thing for other factors.

PriceAnProbability, as we are nearing the end of the winter season of racing may I ask your opinion of what not to do as Aqueduct goes back to the main track from the winter inner?

[kingfin66]

You can probably ask, but I believe that this poster is now persona non grata.

[46zilzal]

You are just the guy to ask this question. For years I hear about trainers putting a horse in a race with no intention of trying to win. One thing I have wondered about, is how much does it cost to run a horse in a race? I don't mean one of the big grade races or top Handicap races.

Jocks fees and that's it. Only stakes races have entry fees.


"I've never met or talked to a trainer. (That explains a lot) It seems as though it makes sense to try and win when you spend time with a horse training him to do just that, go out and win. Or is it so cheap to enter these races that entering and not caring about purse money is no problem. If it were me training a horse and getting it ready to run, and then enter him in a race for a tuneup only to loose him to a claim....well I'd be pretty pissed off to be honest. Plus as an owner I wouldn't be happy either."

[46zilzal]

Speaking of Ray Taulbot, I met him one time and had some conversation with him. One thing he said was that handicappers don't pay enough attention to what a trainer is doing or trying to do with any particular horse.

Not the same game today as when the very knowledgeable fellow was around.

[DanG]

I haven't been involved for some years but I can tell you how it used to be and actually, just my opinion, I don't think there's too much difference now except for a few items.

Entering a race usually only involved the jocks fee which, now remember, I'm talking about years ago, was only $40 for a journeyman and $25 for a bug boy. Back then most jocks didn't get a % of the purse unless it was an added money race.

Purses were much lower then, especially at the Bull Rings and trainers tried to cash a ticket now and then.

Several things that I think have changed trainers operations a lot is the higher purses available with the added money from slots. A lot of trainers can keep an owner happy by picking up checks and since finishing 5th can get you a check they send the horse regardless of the odds. They do this with reservations however, in that there is year round racing now, trainers don't have to send a horse back in a few days because there are plenty of shots to take. They can race a horse every couple of weeks and will also give instructions not to press too hard in order to not throw the horse off form.

In the old days, when winter came it was either ship to FL or lay up till spring. Lots more opportunities now to keep picking up steady checks.

Most of the leading trainers have total control over a horse as to where it's entered. If the owners don't like it, find another trainer. That's why you see guys like Hollendorfer, Lake, and others constantly dropping horses out of the sky. As far as winning goes, nothing works like a drop in class!

Which brings us back to trainers stiffing horses in order to get a price. There was a time when all tracks had the Jailhouse rule which meant that any claimed horse must race for a claiming price 25% higher than it was claimed for until 30 days passed. Probably the oldest trick in the book is to get a horse down in class before it's sent to win. This usually insures bigger odds because the public has a short memory. This rule discouraged a lot of claims. Now I see that a lot of tracks no longer have this rule and a claimed horse can run right back for a price LESS than it was claimed for.

I don't think many trainers will actually tell an owner exactly what he's doing and a lot of times will say he has a shot but it's a tough race. Then there are some owners that won't let a trainer drop a horse because a lot of owners consider their horse a pet.

As for expenses, a lot of owners are racing for fun and prestige and money is no object. The top trainers, who drop horses 2 and 3 classes at a time, usually have so many owners who are only interested in winning, that they make a damn good living just from the everyday training fees and a % of the purse.

I do see some trainers still setting a horse up for a score by dropping a horse in class but at the wrong distance or surface, etc. but it's risky to do that at tracks like LRL with no Jailhouse rule because some one will hook the horse.

One other thing I notice that's different is the jockey situation. I think that now a' days one has to pay a lot more attention to the jockeys. There are 2-3 jocks that get most of the good rides at most tracks. Even at BEU where you see boxcar mutuals most of these are ridden by one of the leading jocks and they play musical chairs.

If I forgot anything let me know.:)
I hate to “quote” such a large post as the resulting bandwidth to PA is huge…but…I really appreciate a player like “Pell Mell” writing in this depth.

Thanks my friend for sharing your thoughts. Very interesting perspective from someone who has lived it. :ThmbUp: