What are ability times?

[danddiver]

How are they used?
Thanks,
Dan

[michiken]

The first mention of 'Ability Time' that I heard of was watching some old Dick Mitchell video tapes.....

'Ability Time' is the ranking of a horse on how he will contest the 2nd call (4f in sprints and 6f in routes) of the race. It may show horses that will quit or ones that accelerate. The general idea is to see who can have the lead as they exit the turn and head for the stretch.

Ability time is highly based on the horses 2nd internal fraction or Turn Time.

To calculate ability time try these Feet per Second formulas:


AT = [EP] + [TT] where:

Sprints:
Early Pace [EP] = (2640 - (9 x BL2)) / T2
Turn Time [TT] = (1320 - (9 x (BL2 - BL1)) / (T2 - T1)

Routes:
Early Pace [EP] = (3960 - (9 x BL2)) / T2
Turn Time [TT] = (1320 - (9 x (BL2 - BL1)) / (T2 - T1)

and:

BL1 = beaten lengths at the 1st call (2 furlongs in sprints and 4f in routes)

BL2 = beaten lengths at the 2nd call (4 furlongs in sprints and 6f in routes)

T1 = time of 1st call:
- 2f time i,e. 22-24 seconds for sprints
- 4f time i,e. 47-50 for routes

T2 = time of 2nd call:

- 4 furlong time i,e. 44-47 seconds for sprints
- 6 furlong time i,e. 70-74 seconds in routes

1 furlong = 1/8 of a mile = 1320 feet;

9 feet is the approximate value of a length. You can try 8 and 10 feet too.
1320 is the number of feet in 2 furlongs
2640 is the the number of feet in 4 furlongs
3960 is the number of feet in 6 furlongs

Depending on the running style of a horse or the jocks ride, the horse does not have to use the horses 'ability time' at the same position in the race. A patient jock can realize that he has some 'gas in the tank' that will enable to accelerate prior to the finish line.

I now use the above formula to rank 'early ability time' and calculate a final fraction velocity too. Horse racing is more than who ran the fastest times, it is also how a horse distributes its energy at today's distance.

... hope I got my equations straight... someone else should verify.

[witchdoctor]

Michiken is discribing Ability time as described by Dick Mitchell. I think the equations are right. To muddle the waters, William Scott has a different ability time equation which mainly involves the final fraction. I can't remember the equations off the top of my head.

[Ponyplayr]

There are Dirt and Turf Ability Times. Big difference.

[GameTheory]

I think Mitchell ability times for turf involved early pace + late pace (LP instead of turn time) if I remember correctly, which I may not be. I used to have great success with the Mitchell turf times in SoCal turf races.

Scott ability times are completely different, and I can't remember the derivation, although I have it in a book somewhere....

[ranchwest]

For one thing, Scott adjusted the beaten lengths to put less emphasis on the beaten lengths as the value was increasingly higher.

[michiken]

Game,

My equations were for dirt and based on Mitchell's derivation.

Thanks for the tip on the turf formulas. I will try to incorporate them.

[bobphilo]

I seem to recall that at first Scott's Ability times were just based on the horse's time for the final quarter in a 6 furlong races with adjustments for his half mile time. his theory was that a horse showed his ability by hoe fast he could run the final quarter - somewhat reminiscent of Col. Bradleys philosophy. Actually most studies show the final quarter to be the least predictive. For routes he used the 3rd quarter though it wasn't the final one, mainly because it was easty to calculate. At first he thought it better to ignore variants but later included them. I think in his later books he just abandoned the final quarter time in favor of final time.
Bob

[Big Bill]

In Mitchell's A Winning Speed Handicapping Strategy he says, "that ability time is adjusted-turn-time. To compute adjusted-turn-time we first calculate the horse's actual turn-time and then add this number to the horse's actual second call time".

Big Bill