Track Variants

[befuddlem]

I'm trying to incorporate a track variant into my spreadsheet.
Before I go full bore here and use the DRF Variant, I'd like to see what you people think. The basic question I have is: Do you think it's the track itself
that changes so dramatically? ie: 14 one day 22 the next
Or is it the quality of horses running that makes it fluctuate so much?
ie: Weekends seem to have much better horses running.

Thanks in advance.

[cj]

I guess it depends how accurate you want to be. If you want a VERY rough estimate, go with DRF variant. I guess it all depends how much of a factor it is in what you want to accomplish.

[banacek]

I make my own variant, but use the DRF TV field on my spreadsheet fit it. I calculate the track variant for the day and if it is fast by 2/5, I make the DRF variant 13. If it is slow by 5, I make it 20.

I don't trust the DRF one in some cases, but it is usually better than nothing. For example at my closest track (Hastings), the DRF variant is usually 6 or 7 points lower the first 2 weeks of the meet (like 9 or 10) and then after that it becomes more realistic (like 15 or 16). The reason - the first 2 weeks is almost exclusively 6f sprints and then the rest of the meet the sprints are 6.5f. So they have funny pars they are working with at 6f. (But that can be money if you know it!)

[befuddlem]

I'd like to be quite precise with the variant, but I can see that it would be alot of work trying to track down the quality of fields at all of the different tracks.
It's looking like I'll have to settle with the DRF variant. I suppose as long as the variant is in the ball park, it will not have an adverse effect on my final figures.

[46zilzal]

but it is usually better than nothing. For example at my closest track (Hastings), the DRF variant is usually 6 or 7 points lower the first 2 weeks of the meet (like 9 or 10) and then after that it becomes more realistic (like 15 or 16). The reason - the first 2 weeks is almost exclusively 6f sprints and then the rest of the meet the sprints are 6.5f. So they have funny pars they are working with at 6f. (But that can be money if you know it!)

Also too the track gets changed as well. One year they goofed (too much sand near the inner 1/3 of the track) and had to close down as NO HORSE won closer than 6 from the rail and only a few jocks figured it out before they almost had a riot on their hands.

Cancelled the card after about 1 1/2 cards to the resounding boo's of the crowd. Thought they were going to the tear the place apart!

[befuddlem]

I make my own variant, but use the DRF TV field on my spreadsheet fit it. I calculate the track variant for the day and if it is fast by 2/5, I make the DRF variant 13. If it is slow by 5, I make it 20.

I don't trust the DRF one in some cases, but it is usually better than nothing. For example at my closest track (Hastings), the DRF variant is usually 6 or 7 points lower the first 2 weeks of the meet (like 9 or 10) and then after that it becomes more realistic (like 15 or 16). The reason - the first 2 weeks is almost exclusively 6f sprints and then the rest of the meet the sprints are 6.5f. So they have funny pars they are working with at 6f. (But that can be money if you know it!)

Thanks Banacek, I might give that idea a go. So you are saying that a normal track surface should have a variant of about 15? I've also noticed that about Hastings before with their 6f races early in their meet.

[banacek]

I'd like to be quite precise with the variant, but I can see that it would be alot of work trying to track down the quality of fields at all of the different tracks.


Horsestreet or Cynthia Pars. Worth the investment. And I do the variant for a track in about 2 minutes.

[banacek]

So you are saying that a normal track surface should have a variant of about 15? I've also noticed that about Hastings before with their 6f races early in their meet.

I'm not sure. I just use that as a base and adjust it to that. Doesn't matter too much as in almost all cases I am comparing Hastings races to Hastings races. Horsestreet pars will give you average track variants. I'm not sure if Cynthia does.

[befuddlem]

Horsestreet or Cynthia Pars. Worth the investment. And I do the variant for a track in about 2 minutes.

Thank you, I'll look into it. If it saves a ton of time, I'm sure it's worth it.

[john del riccio]

There are several factors at work here. The quality of horses, as you mentioned, the environment (temp. humidity, rain, wind, etc.), track maintenance, the actual running of the races over that surface, length & portion of the meet, dark days, tides (I know this because MTH is my "home track" by the jersey short and the track speed changes wildly there during the course of the day), morning workouts, a totally new surface being put down...on and on. It is no small undertaking to calculate accurate variants because there are many more unknowns than knowns which is where art meets science and experience helps tremendously. One fact that is a given, which may go against what you beleive or have been led to beleive, track speed does NOT stay constant during the course of the day, let alone from day to day.
It is best to go into the process assuming that conditions can and do change
instead of the opposite premise.

John

[befuddlem]

There are several factors at work here. The quality of horses, as you mentioned, the environment (temp. humidity, rain, wind, etc.), track maintenance, the actual running of the races over that surface, length & portion of the meet, dark days, tides (I know this because MTH is my "home track" by the jersey short and the track speed changes wildly there during the course of the day), morning workouts, a totally new surface being put down...on and on. It is no small undertaking to calculate accurate variants because there are many more unknowns than knowns which is where art meets science and experience helps tremendously. One fact that is a given, which may go against what you beleive or have been led to beleive, track speed does NOT stay constant during the course of the day, let alone from day to day.
It is best to go into the process assuming that conditions can and do change
instead of the opposite premise.

John

Sounds very intense. So how do you treat variants in your work?
It would seem to me that there would be no easy way to take all of these factors into account. Let alone the track is changing from race to race.

[DanG]

I'd like to be quite precise with the variant, but I can see that it would be alot of work trying to track down the quality of fields at all of the different tracks.
It's looking like I'll have to settle with the DRF variant. I suppose as long as the variant is in the ball park, it will not have an adverse effect on my final figures.
For what its worth I spent many years making my own variants.

You claim you are striving for high accuracy…As CJ stated that leaves out DRF’s version.

For under $4 a day via HTR’s export you have access to Jim Cramer’s (HDW) professional level variants for every track in North America.

Requirements are…





Some knowledge of exporting data to Access / Excel or a willingness to learn.
Approximately $3.93 cents a day.
Best of luck!

[john del riccio]

Experience is the short answer. Based on what you DO know, certain assumptions can be made. When these assumptions don't necessarily
"make sense" when you apply your "theory", the premise of what
you DON't know allows the artsy part of a comprehensive process to take hold.

Next time you are at your local racetrack, go down to the racing surface
as close as you can get when the horses come out for the post parade and
monitor how their feet sink into the surface. Make note of the environmental
factors (sun, cloudy, windy, etc...). After each race, make note of the
tractors and see if you can detect how deep the harrowing is, or whether they are scraping the track (compacting it), and make note of whether they are watering the surface as well. If there is a turf race, make note of whether the dirt surface is manacured between races or left alone, and then for each subsequent race, look at the horses feet again as they go into the post prade for the depth into the surface. After several attempts at doing this, you will certainly see why the track speed can vary from race to race; sometimes by a significant amount; despite the fact that its a sunny day....

John

[Greyfox]

After several attempts at doing this, you will certainly see why the track speed can vary from race to race; sometimes by a significant amount; despite the fact that its a sunny day....

John

Good stuff John. Turf Paradise, for example, often "seems" to slow through the day, many days, for whatever reason. Your points are well taken.

[Light]

befuddlem

On the SA P6 thread you just talked about how you missed 5 out of 6 using Dr. Park's top-rated Quickgap horses. If the good doctor's figs are that good why would you want to waste your time with variants?

[44PACE]

[QUOTE=befuddlemee . The basic question I have is: Do you think it's the track itself
that changes so dramatically? ie: 14 one day 22 the next
Or is it the quality of horses running that makes it fluctuate so much?
ie: Weekends seem to have much better horses running.

Thanks in advance.[/QUOTE]Depends upon what track you are talking about. If you play MNR its mostly the track ( winter vrs Summer variants).

The drf variant works fine, just don't compare horses running with large differences in their variants ex 13 vrs 31.

[befuddlem]

befuddlem

On the SA P6 thread you just talked about how you missed 5 out of 6 using Dr. Park's top-rated Quickgap horses. If the good doctor's figs are that good why would you want to waste your time with variants?

His figures are good, but I am also building my own spreadsheet handicapping tool. I bought Dr. Park's book as well and it goes into this subject. He just doesn't talk a whole lot about track variants.

[PlanB]

I subscribed to parks' picks & they were under-acheivers. In fact, he seemed a tad too concerned with security, having a double password, or some such waste of my time, procedure. Now, if someone posted his picks BEFORE the races, that might prove useful. And his pick-sheet suffered the usual problem of NOT addressing the scratches that happen. Hey someone, PROVE my opinion wrong.
PS: just an aside, WHERE IS KEILAN?

[befuddlem]

I subscribed to parks' picks & they were under-acheivers. In fact, he seemed a tad too concerned with security, having a double password, or some such waste of my time, procedure. Now, if someone posted his picks BEFORE the races, that might prove useful. And his pick-sheet suffered the usual problem of NOT addressing the scratches that happen. Hey someone, PROVE my opinion wrong.
PS: just an aside, WHERE IS KEILAN?

You don't need to lie, just to start an argument. I have checked the Dr. Park picks for scratches etc. and they are updated everyday to include them. As the picks are put out the night before, I would suggest you use your browser's refresh function. As far as the picks underachieving goes?? They have their good days and their bad days, but I can only speak for myself when I say I have had good success with them. They aren't doing to well today at Santa Anita, but they were good earlier at Gulfstream.

[PlanB]

That's just the lie I expected; you monitor others but say parks' has good & bad days. LOL. Just post his picks BEFORE. ps, I'm ONLY concerned with real data, not your impressions, which seem low level, since you're looking now at variants.

[befuddlem]

That's just the lie I expected; you monitor others but say parks' has good & bad days. LOL. Just post his picks BEFORE. ps, I'm ONLY concerned with real data, not your impressions, which seem low level, since you're looking now at variants.

Why the hell would I post someone else's picks?
Dr. Park posts a free play everyday, and it does very well. That's the truth.
His play did not win today, but it does produce good results if one were to follow it.
I monitored the Valueline guy because he asked me to. He didn't live up to what he said he would do and he apologized. I respect him for that.

I suspect like your moniker indicates, that you really don't have any concrete plan other than to tear other people down. When that doesn't work, you go to PlanB, whatever the hell that is. And I will say it again, as far as I am concerned, you are a Liar. Nothing more, nothing less!

[befuddlem]

ps, I'm ONLY concerned with real data, not your impressions, which seem low level, since you're looking now at variants.

Does anyone else follow the logic in this comment?
Maybe I'm missing something.

[PlanB]

arghhh. Maybe your love of parks has blinded you to a simple truth: ENDORSEMENTS are no substitute for picks, openly made, before the races end. Period. ps, Enough already, you're not only dumb you're boring too.

[befuddlem]

Enough already, you're not only dumb you're boring too.

Clearly a man of intelligence! :sleeping:

[PlanB]

Thank You. Yes I am very intelligent & lucky for me my employer thinks so too.

[befuddlem]

Thank You. Yes I am very intelligent & lucky for me my employer thinks so too.

Glad you and your employer think so.:D

[PlanB]

Are you that desperate for any attention? WHY DID YOU WRITE, feel the need to write, that childish remark? And no amount of pre-programmed icons help you. Sorry, I really don't know you, but who cares?

[karlskorner]

You brought up a subject I have been touting on here for the past couple of years. Watch the Tractors ! Of course I was accused of "handicapping" the tractors. A perfect example, a couple of weeks ago as I entered CRC from the paddock side I walked over to the gap and noticed 3 tractors in tandem were going " clockwise " rather than counter-clockwise " along the rail ", when I got to my seat on the 4th floor this was still in progress. Did this change the track ? The first 7 out of 12 races were won from the 1 hole.

Carrying a variant over from yesterday IMHO is useless, the tractors can change the entire surface from yesterday to today before the races even start and certainly can change the surface during the race day. The Track Super can be your friend or you enemy.

[befuddlem]

You brought up a subject I have been touting on here for the past couple of years. Watch the Tractors ! Of course I was accused of "handicapping" the tractors. A perfect example, a couple of weeks ago as I entered CRC from the paddock side I walked over to the gap and noticed 3 tractors in tandem were going " clockwise " rather than counter-clockwise " along the rail ", when I got to my seat on the 4th floor this was still in progress. Did this change the track ? The first 7 out of 12 races were won from the 1 hole.

Carrying a variant over from yesterday IMHO is useless, the tractors can change the entire surface from yesterday to today before the races even start and certainly can change the surface during the race day. The Track Super can be your friend or you enemy.

I agree with you completely on this one. I think these tractors play a large role in determining what type of horse can win.

[befuddlem]

Are you that desperate for any attention? WHY DID YOU WRITE, feel the need to write, that childish remark? And no amount of pre-programmed icons help you. Sorry, I really don't know you, but who cares?

Anyone making any sense of this guy? I thought we were talking about variants here. He's already said he considers looking at variants to be a low level task, so why is he still lurking in here?

[PlanB]

Sorry, KarlsKorner, but help me understand this tractor idea. Explicate please, I'm curious. (I love Monmouth Park & I always see tractors doing things)

[bellsbendboy]

Befuddle I would be interested in the title of the book you mentioned and opine you are making the leap from weekend capper to something more. Good for you. Variants are lower on w/ends because better horses are running. I posted how the track changes at www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8877&highlight last week. It may seem primitive, but if not, you have some work to do.

Agree with many; the DRF variants could be upgraded.

JDR well worded sage comments

Picking winners the night before is mostly because of a deadline. Can you imagine "betting" the night before??

[PlanB]

NO, maybe you can't read, maybe your eyesight is bad, or your brain is riddled with, who knows what bacteria/virus, but what I said is YOU ARE LOW LEVEL, not variants, which I consider pivotal, but difficult to measure. ahh, you're exhausting, so I am conceding this to you: I hope you lose your dentures & God takes away your typing hand, all 4 fingers. LOL, at least you're a diversion.

[befuddlem]

your impressions, which seem low level, since you're looking now at variants.

Hmmm. If you follow the logic of this statement. Since I'm looking at variants, my impression must be low level.

You said it not me!