World Series of Handicapping

[The Hawk]

Here's part of the story from DRF about the winner of the World Series of Handicapping this weekend at the Orleans. So much for experience!

Rookie wins major handicapping event
Geoffrey Dutton, 30, of Lowell, Mass., topped a talented field of 715 in winning the $357,500 first-place prize in the Horseplayer World Series at the Orleans last Thursday through Sunday.

The field included most of the top names on the handicapping circuit, but if you don't recognize the Dutton name from past tournaments, there's a good reason: this was his first tournament try.

Dutton said he has a finance degree but was making $10 an hour as an EMT-paramedic until mid-December when he said he "took a leap of faith and quit my job and planned to take accounting classes while playing one to two big tournaments a year."

He said he has wanted to play in tournaments for a long time and his first one was going to be at Suffolk Downs but was canceled due to inclement weather. He said he had always wanted to come to Vegas, so he entered the World Series. The rest is history.

As for his history, Dutton has been playing the horses the past five years and describes himself as a weekend warrior and small-stakes bettor. His previous biggest racing score was in a Santa Anita turf race in which he said he had $20 win on a 25-1 shot and had the exacta 10 times and made about $2,500, total.

But now he has a much better story to tell.

Dutton had saved up the $1,000 for the entry fee and got a $79 airfare online. He stayed at the El Cortez in downtown Las Vegas and took the hour-long bus ride to the Orleans each day.

Over the three-day tournament, in which contestants make 11 mythical $20 win-and-place wagers (the first $2 is credited at full track odds with the remaining $18 capped at $40 to win and $20 to place), he limited his plays to only Gulfstream, Fair Grounds, and Santa Anita, and earned 2,929.40 points to beat out Emory Nihipali of Las Vegas with 2,858.

Dutton entered the final day in 36th place but hit his first two longshot plays - Zafin at 29-1 in Gulfstream's second race and Smashing Brass at 21-1 in Fair Grounds's third race - and said he knew he had a chance. The horse that put him over the top was Save at 9-1 in Santa Anita's eighth race.

[bigmack]

Great story. Nice work kid.

[traynor]

<quote> he has a finance degree <end quote>

That tends to make the point I have expressed a dozen times on this forum (to the great chagrin of a few). Some of the best "handicappers" around are finance and business majors, who regard software as a tool to crunch numbers and draw graphs, and excel at data analysis.
Good Luck

[singunner]

What major do you think would be better than one that is designed to teach you how to deal with large amounts of information in order to draw conclusions? I don't see how this would be to anyone's chagrin.

If he was a creative writing major or a psychology major, that would be different.

[ryesteve]

I don't see how this would be to anyone's chagrin.

I think the implication was that the naysayers who don't have such a degree and deride its importance, would be chagrinned...

[Greyfox]

<quote> he has a finance degree <end quote>

That tends to make the point I have expressed a dozen times on this forum (to the great chagrin of a few). Some of the best "handicappers" around are finance and business majors, who regard software as a tool to crunch numbers and draw graphs, and excel at data analysis.
Good Luck


traynor has pointed out the above. Then he has included a DDSS site.
On that site in the "Who we are section" is a comment that says:

"We are a loosely affiliated group of software developers, project managers and graduate business students who share an avid interest in pari-mutuel wagering."

So reading into that traynor you're sort of saying
"The world handicapping champ is a business student.
We are business students who handicap.
Therefore we make the best handicappers.

Yet in the Champ's remarks I didn't read anywhere that he was data crunching, using graphs or software.
Personally, I think that good handicappers (and poor ones) can come from any walk of life and don't need a degrees behind their names.

[Suff]

Favorite must of run second for the exacta to only pay $200 with a $52.00 horse on top.


Kid made $10.00 an hour stocking ambulances with band-aids and gauze pads.

He picked the right horses on the right day. Congratulations and good for him.

[bellsbendboy]

FWIW I have a degree in finance and am a very salty 'capper. I could not fathom using software, yet posess a good understanding of risk vs. return and have a terrific R.O.I. by betting almost strictly pick 4's. BBB

[boomman]

Dutton entered the final day in 36th place but hit his first two longshot plays - Zafin at 29-1 in Gulfstream's second race and Smashing Brass at 21-1 in Fair Grounds's third race - and said he knew he had a chance. The horse that put him over the top was Save at 9-1 in Santa Anita's eighth race


I was sitting one table away from Dutton when he hit the horse "Save" to put him over the top, and that was (I would like to think) a solid selection as I used him heavily in the late pick 4 as well! My heartfelt congratulations to you Mr. Dutton, as your win was well deserved with a fine score, and we hope to see you at many tournaments to come!!

Boom

[Premier Turf Club]

Great story. We need these newbies. It's that generation that will keep the game alive. Unfortunately, none of my younger sibs, all of whom have business degrees, have any interest in the game at all. My personal hopes rest on my nine year old son.

[PlanB]

What a GREAT story. I hope he was on 1st Class standby for his trip back home. It's interesting because I got my degree in accounting; I had 3 finance courses but found the math too rough. It's funny because a degree in finance is just NOT enough to get a good job but if your an accountant job offers come every day. Maybe someone will invite him to join PA ... I bet he's got a lot of fun things to post.

[Rookie@58]

Is there a web site I can go to find a complete list of contestants for this particular tournament? I have a good friend who might have entered and I want to see where he might have finished. Thanks.....

[Murph]

Is there a web site I can go to find a complete list of contestants for this particular tournament? I have a good friend who might have entered and I want to see where he might have finished. Thanks.....http://www.coastrace.com/hws.html

[xciceroguy]

Here's part of the story from DRF about the winner of the World Series of Handicapping this weekend at the Orleans. So much for experience!

Rookie wins major handicapping event
Geoffrey Dutton, 30, of Lowell, Mass., topped a talented field of 715 in winning the $357,500 first-place prize in the Horseplayer World Series at the Orleans last Thursday through Sunday.

The field included most of the top names on the handicapping circuit, but if you don't recognize the Dutton name from past tournaments, there's a good reason: this was his first tournament try.

Dutton said he has a finance degree but was making $10 an hour as an EMT-paramedic until mid-December when he said he "took a leap of faith and quit my job and planned to take accounting classes while playing one to two big tournaments a year."

He said he has wanted to play in tournaments for a long time and his first one was going to be at Suffolk Downs but was canceled due to inclement weather. He said he had always wanted to come to Vegas, so he entered the World Series. The rest is history.

As for his history, Dutton has been playing the horses the past five years and describes himself as a weekend warrior and small-stakes bettor. His previous biggest racing score was in a Santa Anita turf race in which he said he had $20 win on a 25-1 shot and had the exacta 10 times and made about $2,500, total.

But now he has a much better story to tell.

Dutton had saved up the $1,000 for the entry fee and got a $79 airfare online. He stayed at the El Cortez in downtown Las Vegas and took the hour-long bus ride to the Orleans each day.

Over the three-day tournament, in which contestants make 11 mythical $20 win-and-place wagers (the first $2 is credited at full track odds with the remaining $18 capped at $40 to win and $20 to place), he limited his plays to only Gulfstream, Fair Grounds, and Santa Anita, and earned 2,929.40 points to beat out Emory Nihipali of Las Vegas with 2,858.

Dutton entered the final day in 36th place but hit his first two longshot plays - Zafin at 29-1 in Gulfstream's second race and Smashing Brass at 21-1 in Fair Grounds's third race - and said he knew he had a chance. The horse that put him over the top was Save at 9-1 in Santa Anita's eighth race.


They have enough tournaments for people to make a living on? Where are all these tournaments run at. I just know of the two in Vegas. Orleans and Bally's.

[traynor]

traynor has pointed out the above. Then he has included a DDSS site.
On that site in the "Who we are section" is a comment that says:

"We are a loosely affiliated group of software developers, project managers and graduate business students who share an avid interest in pari-mutuel wagering."

So reading into that traynor you're sort of saying
"The world handicapping champ is a business student.
We are business students who handicap.
Therefore we make the best handicappers.

Yet in the Champ's remarks I didn't read anywhere that he was data crunching, using graphs or software.
Personally, I think that good handicappers (and poor ones) can come from any walk of life and don't need a degrees behind their names.

Not in the least. My comment had nothing whatsoever to do with anything on any website. It had to do with the general reaction on this forum when I mentioned that a number of MBA students in a class I was in at that time were some of the best handicappers I had ever seen. (I have seen more than a few.)

In general, the reaction was that they were "undeserving" because they had not "paid their dues" by tearing up thousands of tickets for years and years to (whatever tearing up thousands of losing tickets is supposed to do for you--presumably build character). The specific group I was referring to seemed to regard handicapping as relatively trivial, compared to financial forecasting.

As far as number crunching not being mentioned, unless he got his finance degree in a CrackerJack box, he is quite knowledgable about data analysis with computers. Especially statistical analysis and modeling with Excel, SPSS, and dedicated finance apps. It goes with the territory.
Good Luck

[traynor]

FWIW I have a degree in finance and am a very salty 'capper. I could not fathom using software, yet posess a good understanding of risk vs. return and have a terrific R.O.I. by betting almost strictly pick 4's. BBB

Congratulations on your success. I assume you got your degree more than 15 years ago? It is pretty difficult now to get past even a first semester finance class without immersion in Excel modeling and data analysis.
Good Luck

[traynor]

I think the easiest way to say it is that I have a great deal of respect for some relatively inexperienced handicappers who are able to hit the ground running and hold their own with others with much more experience, based on their exposure to software applications used in data analysis and data modeling.

That is in no way intended to diminish the respect that successful handicappers of other persuasions and backgrounds may have earned. It is simply an observation, and an opinion.
Good Luck

[timtam]

I thought the World Series of Handicapping was held at Penn National in

late October ???

[Greyfox]

I think the easiest way to say it is that I have a great deal of respect for some relatively inexperienced handicappers who are able to hit the ground running and hold their own with others with much more experience, based on their exposure to software applications used in data analysis and data modeling.

That is in no way intended to diminish the respect that successful handicappers of other persuasions and backgrounds may have earned. It is simply an observation, and an opinion.
Good Luck

Okay. Okay. But I thought that this thread was about the World Handicapping Champion? Not you. Not me. Not whatever we think about others.
Not about software, not about grads from business school.

[JimG]

I thought the World Series of Handicapping was held at Penn National in

late October ???

They discontinued that several years ago.

[The Hawk]

As a matter of fact, I think Coast Casinos bought the rights to the "World Series" name from Penn National.

[toetoe]

Very nice ... neigh-sayers. HAW. Oat-iose, even.

Hey, the last chance for the Bally's Bally-palooza is today. :jump:

I maintain that the next monster handy-crapper hasn't started playing the horses yet. The fresh approach, unencumbered by decades of "knowledge" such as I have, is key. Well done, Mr. Dutton. :ThmbUp:

[traynor]

Okay. Okay. But I thought that this thread was about the World Handicapping Champion? Not you. Not me. Not whatever we think about others.
Not about software, not about grads from business school.

On the contrary. The biggest infusion of poker fans in online gambling was a direct result of a fellow named Moneymaker. Hopefully a number of current college students and graduates will make the connection that handicapping is neither arcane nor rocket science, but rather just another version of data analysis and data modeling.

Just as a lot of handicappers dabble in stock trading, and stock traders tend to dip occasionally into the larger Pick 6 pools, so should "new' people be encouraged to participate. One of the best ways to demonstrate the possibilities is for relative newbies to win major events (or at least events with major sounding titles).

I think if just a portion of the tens of thousands of finance and business majors churned out by US colleges and universities could be enticed to apply their analytical skills (and tools) to horse racing, it would be the best thing to happen to the sport in a long time. (And the mutuel pools!)

Conversely, to create a mystique that only the "battle-seasoned veterans" can aspire to success, and only the old folks are privy to the secret knowledge needed to win, is counter-productive. Most people under 30 are already intimately familiar with that model, because the same mindset permeates academia; the further graduates can distance themselves from it, the happier they are.
Good Luck

[Greyfox]

On the contrary. ...

I think if just a portion of the tens of thousands of finance and business majors churned out by US colleges and universities could be enticed to apply their analytical skills (and tools) to horse racing, it would be the best thing to happen to the sport in a long time.

I agree with you. But I would say that there is a larger subset of people who also have analytical skills and (tools) that could be attracted to horse racing.
It ain't just business grads.
But this thread is not about attracting those people to horse racing.
It is about the World Handicapping Champion. I'd encourage you to start a separate thread devoted to your idea.
In the meanwhile, well done "Champ."

[bellsbendboy]

Traynor: I earned my degree some 30 years ago! I have heard of excel but the other stuff you mentioned is foreign to me.

I wholeheartedly congratulate Dutton and Chris Moneymaker but lets face it these tournaments have a huge amount of luck to them. I can't imagine a handicapper in their twenty's, or a handicapper who predominantly uses software programming, keeping pace with a veteran over the long run. I would be of the opinion that each would have difficulty in establishing class of the horse and to a lesser extent trainer intent. BBB

[bigmack]

I can't imagine a handicapper who predominantly uses software programming, keeping pace with a veteran over the long run. I would be of the opinion that each would have difficulty in establishing class of the horse and to a lesser extent trainer intent. BBB
How long does a player have to be involved with the game to determine trainer intent and class level? Most "veteran" players I know are some of the worst handicappers I know. Years of bad habits.

I'm always curious of those that poo-poo software offerings their level of knowledge of those offerings. If I told you that some have every bit of information that DRF and/or Bris has, and then about 9 times as much with the ability to sort any field by any factor, would you believe me?

[bellsbendboy]

I agree Mack some people love the game but cannot process the data well enough to ensure profitability. I have been 'capping for about forty years and still have some issues with determining class.

My favorite basic definition on class comes from the great Preston Burch who wrote "we do not know where a horse gets his class, but we do know that a horse that has it need only run a few hindred yards head and head with a horse that doesn't, and the latter will pull himself up like a man putting the brakes on his auto".

I am not at all surprised by the amount of information software programs can posess and sort. Would you be surprised if I claimed I could "tweak" ANY software program and materially increase its R.O.I.? BBB

[sjk]

Would you be surprised if I claimed I could "tweak" ANY software program and materially increase its R.O.I.? BBB

Surprised at such a claim or surprised if you could do it?

Hard to be surprised when claims are posted after the many that have come before.

More seriously, I don't think you appreciate how complicated some software is. For some programs it would take weeks or months to even figure out how they work. Even if you took the time to do so I think it would be a dubious prospect that you could easily make improvements on something that the developer has invested thousands of hours in optimizing.

[bigmack]

Would you be surprised if I claimed I could "tweak" ANY software program and materially increase its R.O.I.? BBB
Define "tweak"

[traynor]

How long does a player have to be involved with the game to determine trainer intent and class level? Most "veteran" players I know are some of the worst handicappers I know. Years of bad habits.

I'm always curious of those that poo-poo software offerings their level of knowledge of those offerings. If I told you that some have every bit of information that DRF and/or Bris has, and then about 9 times as much with the ability to sort any field by any factor, would you believe me?

We must know some of the same "veterans." I think it is rather a reluctance to change (rather than laziness or plain stupidity) that makes some people repeat the same mistakes they have made before, over and over, year after year. One of the most difficult things for some to accept is that practicing how to lose for 15 or 20 years does not make them "experts."

There are a variety of human foibles at cause for such behavior, that are pointless to enumerate here. The short form is that new ideas, new insights, and new methods are often far more productive than the "tried and true" methods that some have used to lose for years.

You don't need to bet to change. Change your viewpoint, change your ideas, work it out on paper, handicap for fun, and when you can show a decent profit on paper, go for it at the mutuel windows. To believe that the same "insights" that have been losers for years will suddenly become profitable is misguided, at best.
Good Luck

[PriceAnProbability]

On the contrary. The biggest infusion of poker fans in online gambling was a direct result of a fellow named Moneymaker. Hopefully a number of current college students and graduates will make the connection that handicapping is neither arcane nor rocket science, but rather just another version of data analysis and data modeling.

Just as a lot of handicappers dabble in stock trading, and stock traders tend to dip occasionally into the larger Pick 6 pools, so should "new' people be encouraged to participate. One of the best ways to demonstrate the possibilities is for relative newbies to win major events (or at least events with major sounding titles).

I think if just a portion of the tens of thousands of finance and business majors churned out by US colleges and universities could be enticed to apply their analytical skills (and tools) to horse racing, it would be the best thing to happen to the sport in a long time. (And the mutuel pools!)

Conversely, to create a mystique that only the "battle-seasoned veterans" can aspire to success, and only the old folks are privy to the secret knowledge needed to win, is counter-productive. Most people under 30 are already intimately familiar with that model, because the same mindset permeates academia; the further graduates can distance themselves from it, the happier they are.
Good Luck

I remember when War Emblem was going for the triple crown, and they said how the sport needed him to win to help market it.

Maybe that would have been good marketing, but the 70-1 that Sarava paid sure wasn't bad!

[bigmack]

Kid made $10.00 an hour stocking ambulances with band-aids and gauze pads.
Congratulations and good for him.
http://www.lowellsun.com/sports/ci_5156578

I'm still in a state of shock," laughed Dutton, 30. "I've been staring at the huge Styrofoam check all week until the actual check cleared on Thursday. I'm still numb. Today, I went out and bought a 2003 Cadillac, low mileage. That's the only extravagance I'm going to allow myself.

[BIG RED]

Nice story. As Suff can attest to, Lowell is not an urban delite.

Good to see someone strive and get to where he wanted to be, for now anyway.

[Pell Mell]

It's my opinion that there are two schools of thought involved here. The first is that those of you who process data and approach the game through analysis of a mathematical program must bet in a certain manner. That is; you expect to achieve a certain percentage of winners at a specific range of odds that will produce a profit. I suppose that some will find horses that are considered locks and take a plunge but from what I read here that is the exception.

It has also been noted here that one probably needs a fresh approach in order to find success and that there are those who have been losing for years and cannot change.

I submit that no matter the information available by way of computer programs and such, that nothing has changed in all these years of racing.

Racing conditions are still written as they always have been. Simply put, horses are penalized according to races won and the dates of these wins in addition to the class they were won in. The only tool at a trainers disposal is the class at which their horse is entered.

If a handicapper has been successful by the proper analysis of conditions and class placement in the past there is no reason this success cannot be continued.

Handicappers that cap races in this manner are looking for specific horses that are spotted with an edge and do not pursue a certain percentage of winners at odds which may offset the losers. They want a horse with an edge in conditions and then go for a score.