Churchill Downs Angle Plays

[ridersup]

Churchill Downs opens the fall meet today and I just finnished scanning the form and found two possible angle plays. The angle is betting on young horses that have been laid off for a while and come back presumably bigger and stronger. As a rule of thumb I add 1 beyer point for each month the horse is on the sidelines.

Race two: #3 Forty Second St ran a nice race before layin off on 22d of June. Now he comes back for trainer John Hennig who has a positive ROI with horses coming back from a layoff of 61 to 180 days. Would bet #3 to win at 5-2 or better.

Race five: two 3yolds come off a 5 month layoff after posting nice Beyer figures. With improvement due to growing up they could post nice figures here. The horses are #1 Sterling Gold and #2 Soo Much. There is a horse in the race that will probably be bet down and might be a good play against. #8 Salt Lake King ran a 94 Beyer in his first race and is trained by Patrick Byrne and will be ridden by R. Albarado. Im going to make win bets on the two layoff horses and saver exacta with the #8 horse.

[ridersup]

# 1 Sterling Gold won going away and paid a nice $24.60

[PaceAdvantage]

Very sweet!

[GR1@HTR]

Good eye riders up!

[Tom]

I like this angle in the spring, late Feb into May and generally with 3YOS.
I look for a race or two at two, some kind of betting action to suggest there was at least some hope, then the long layoff.
I better keep in on the front burner for fall races too.
Nice hit.

[Suff]

I had a Pick three Going with 'Salt Lake KING" in the 6th... Its was paying 76 bucks for a dollar... I had it going for 6 bucks,, I played it straight up, 3 horse pick three for 5 Bucks,, and I had it going for another buck on a wider ticket... I had 50 to win on him at 4-5,,, a 20 dollar EX with the 4 horse. and to insure the pick three.. I started another one using the 2, 3, 4,5,6... What happned? The 1 horse won, Sterling Gold.. Had'nt raced since MAY... The RIDE Albarado gave SALT Lake KING was screwy.. Horse earned a 94 beyer Breaking her Cherry in a MDSPWT 4 weeks ago,.. Ran on or near the lead and won by 3 lengths,,, Albarado trys to rate the horse out of the 8 post.. Horse was a lil rank as ROBBIE was HANDS down on her... HORSE LIKES THE LEAD... Jockey gonna think for the horse... MAN... tough beat... DID NOT SEE HOW THAT HORSE WAS GONNA LOSE... Two previous races I cap an 11 dollar horse and a 12 dollar horse to the winners circle and I Can't get my BEST BET to ride home at 4-5... The thing is.. I felt like I EARNED that pick three.. Cuz I really did good work on the previous two races to get my PICK THREE alive in the last leg at a decent price... Kinda felt like I was HELD UP at GUNPOINT after losing that one.

** I posted the above on DRF.com ealier tonight on another thread about Opening day at Churchill.. I bounced over here and read your thread.. ONE DAY TO LATE...!! I believe the pick three paid $400 with your 1 horse... Would have liked to have had that for 6 bucks.....

[Amazin]

Rider

Nice pick on Sterling.Your theory is obviously correct about 3yo,but your other selection showed the other side of the coin.I don't like or play horses likeSOO MUCH.I didn't think that this horse had recovered fully from whatever led to his layoff.The tipoff was a very poor work pattern.Three works in a three week period in June and July and no race.Then couldn't work again till one in September .Then one in October.Red flags for me.Sterling on the other hand had a 4 works in October including a very fast work.This horse was in shape.Another minor factor was that Sterling's rider rerode him and Soo's took another mount in the race further reiterating for me that SOO MUCH was not ready.

[Tom]

Originally posted by ridersup
# 1 Sterling Gold won going away and paid a nice $24.60

And earned a Beyer of 86.

[Suff]

Tom I went back and looked at the Horse "Salt Lake King,, and no disputing he won niceley at first asking... But it was in the Slop and in addition to the previous points he may not have been the "LOCK" I thought.. But,, did you see the race? What did you think of that race? and Salt Lake's ride in particular?

[Tom]

I didn't see the race. But your comment reminds me of a something a wise man once told me.
How do you make sure you pick the double every day?
Bet the pick three! <G>

[freeneasy]

hey dont feelbad Sufferin. Few months back I played a p3 with a $12 winner a $100 winner and the two cinch-lock favorites in the last leg at 4-5 and 2-1. yeah ran 2nd and 3rd.