Importance of Obtaining Good Speed Figures

[mamaluke]

If you obtain incorrect speed figures your results will be hurting your bottom line

The obvious reasons are you want to know if the number was bad for the horse or it was an improvement or decline in form.

I find Brisnet numbers the least accurate.In fact Brisnet uses dirt numbers

in grass races to make selections which is insanity.

The best numbers are Rogazin and Jerry Brown are fair IMO.

The Racing Form would be third of the commonly published numbers

In conclusion if you start with bad information your results should follow

in the same direction.The game is tough enough,even with good numbers

In fact Rogazin horses that were "sheet plays" and paid $12- $15

20 years ago would now pay $8. Too many people reading the sheets
has :D :D :lol: taken away most of the "edge" one needs to win on a consistent basis.

The game gets tougher and tougher especially with "juice" being used

and tolerated by some of the "superstar" trainers at your tracks, rendering
all numbers and form cycles useless when one of their horses is in the race

Just sharing my insights

Best wishes to all

[ranchwest]

I've been using the TSN numbers, which I think may be the same as the Bris numbers.

I didn't know I was screwing up, just going along oblivious. Thanks for pointing this out.

[dav4463]

I use Beyers. I always have. I am comfortable with them and can see winning patterns based on years of experience. Usually I can tell when a number is "bad" or out of whack. I think it depends on what you are comfortable with using for many of us.

[jonnielu]

If you obtain incorrect speed figures your results will be hurting your bottom line

The obvious reasons are you want to know if the number was bad for the horse or it was an improvement or decline in form.

I find Brisnet numbers the least accurate.In fact Brisnet uses dirt numbers

in grass races to make selections which is insanity.

The best numbers are Rogazin and Jerry Brown are fair IMO.

The Racing Form would be third of the commonly published numbers

In conclusion if you start with bad information your results should follow

in the same direction.The game is tough enough,even with good numbers

In fact Rogazin horses that were "sheet plays" and paid $12- $15

20 years ago would now pay $8. Too many people reading the sheets
has :D :D :lol: taken away most of the "edge" one needs to win on a consistent basis.

The game gets tougher and tougher especially with "juice" being used

and tolerated by some of the "superstar" trainers at your tracks, rendering
all numbers and form cycles useless when one of their horses is in the race

Just sharing my insights

Best wishes to all

With the quest for "correct" speed figures having been going on for 30+ years, I would think that there would be "correct" speed figures on every street corner. And how would you correct them anyway? It would seem that all attempts would involve a lot of woulda, coulda, shoulda, and just result in the same incorrect speed figures.

What should be done is to make juice mandatory for every entrant, so that everybody could have correct speed figures and be cashing $2.40 tickets all day long.

A few thoughts, against the grain. Jon Luman

[shanta]

I've been using the TSN numbers, which I think may be the same as the Bris numbers.

I didn't know I was screwing up, just going along oblivious. Thanks for pointing this out.

I guess your $12,000.00 leading total in the pick 4 contest is an illusion too Ranch. Damn TSN can't be any good man. ;)

Richie

[OTM Al]

There is absolutely nothing wrong with using biased statistics if one recognizes that they are biased and has an understanding of where that bias comes from. Then you simply compensate for the bias when handicapping. I use the Form and Beyers. I know how they are constructed and understand their pitfalls. It seems to me that when people are looking for the best figures, they are looking for some magic bullet that will tell them without fail what horse will win. Of course if that could ever happen, the sport would be over. I like handicapping for the challenge first of all. I think I'd get bored pretty quick if I just had to look at some number that someone else gave me and that would tell me everything.

[john del riccio]

You are welcome to assess the quality of the Henry Kuck Ratings produced by Woodside Associates at no charge for 30 days by going to our Woulda Coulda Shoulda page located at: http://www.woodsideassociates.com/wsc.php

We have been doing this for over 30 years.

Good Luck,
John

[ranchwest]

I guess your $12,000.00 leading total in the pick 4 contest is an illusion too Ranch. Damn TSN can't be any good man. ;)

Richie

That's what I was thinking. I probably should toss back that one I hit 19 times last weekend, too, eh?

Oh, well, to each his own.

[DanG]

One mans opinion;

Any speed figure discussion needs to include HDW and Jim Cramer.

Not to mention the brilliant programmers who use HDW. Ken Massa and HTR is my weapon of choice, but HDW is a very important filter / enhancer of the raw Equibase data.

[Shacopate]

I think speed figs are overated and overbet; fast times get good speed ratings and slow times get poor ones, regardless of who makes them.

I use them to identify contenders, but that's just the start of my handicapping process.

Dan G,

I noticed your "Jaco" avatar, you must be a bass player. I love the work he did with Pat Matheny on Bright Sized Life.

[ryesteve]

If you obtain incorrect speed figures your results will be hurting your bottom line
I'm not even sure I'd agree with this original premise. If the "best" figures are the ones that everyone is using and betting, everything you cash is going to be an underlay. Your bottom line might actually be better if you have a set that is a little fuzzier, ignored or unavailable to most, and occasionally is more accurate than the "best" set.

[DanG]

Dan G,

I noticed your "Jaco" avatar, you must be a bass player. I love the work he did with Pat Matheny on Bright Sized Life.
Don’t mean to drag this off-topic, but I can never resist an opportunity to mention the great Jaco Pastorious.

Yes Shacopate..bass player of 30 years..(horse player of 35 :))

Not many know who the heck that is a picture of and fewer still would mention his work on “Bright Size Life”!

Great way to start the day, thanks for acknowledging a true genius.

PS: Back on topic…VERY much agree with your take on speed figures.

[Zaf]

Now thats an awesome album. Haven't played it in a while. Gonna crank that bad boy up right now.

Z

[bigmack]

What can I say of speed figures that hasn't been said ad nauseam.

Now Pastorius, that's a different matter. His fill work on Mitchell's Hejira is a real work of art. Here's a vid of him with Metheny. Take note of the harmonic @ 2:27. Metheny was always too diatonic for my taste but JP's work certainly enhanced the recordings.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vdUfzfy9ayo

[Shacopate]

The bass player in the video is Richard Bona, not Jaco. Still, I enjoyed it.

[DanG]

Sorry Mamaluke” about getting off topic…But in a society that mass markets garbage in the music business its very refreshing to hear some people still appreciate a real artist.

Funny you should mention “Hejira” BigMack. My first bass teacher had me learn that piece when I started on fretless. The intonation Jaco achieves set a standard that still lives today.

OK…Sorry about this…I can feel PA saying “great, now I need to open a music chat room :D” Thanks for your recollections and indulgence. Now, back to the races!!!

[44PACE]

More important is how you use the figures, pace or speed. If you misuse something even if its good it will fail.

[Light]

How many are going to claim certain figures suck and certain figures are great? Its endless. the fact is that no one has presented a study of one figure next to another figure. Maybe the .50 figures are as good or better than the $25 figures.Maybe they're not.I dont care how many hours are put into creating a speed figure. Doesn't necessarily make it better.Give me proof or shut up with these unsubstantiated claims.

[PlanB]

^^ Harsh, but wise. Why is asking for proof so daunting? Why are us askers treated like pariahs? The PhD's, mostly in soft weak fields like psychology, are the most sensative, LOL. Followed by the semi-soft fields like economics. All equations but NO PROOF. Take Goldman-Sachs, they take a DIM view of the average economist. LOL, I mean what can they ever prove? And thus, I say, be a barber, a baker, a shoe repair guy, if you have speed figs/or a system tell us about it, but don't hide. You don't have an invisible cloak. I must ask for proof. Otherwise its just likely fiction.

[bigmack]

when I started on fretless.
The half tones within the realm of a stringed instrument are where real nuance and style is found. Once I connected with slide guitar it became the weapon of choice. The "tween notes" offer the most level of expression and the fretted bend is often too 'detectable' and cliche.

In the span of a half tone hear 10 units and you'll be one gifted cat. After that, it's just making your fingers do what your mind hears.

RE: Speed numbers - I'm all for em'.

[raybo]

Bris numbers are fine if you can adjust them. I use Bris data but don't use any of them raw, they all need to be adjusted somewhat.

I don't use speed numbers simply because everyone else is using them. I feel that form, class and pace yield much better payouts. Ignoring the speed numbers has done much for my bottom line. I guess I'm a contrarian to some extent. but then, so is Warren Buffet and he does ok, lol.

[Shacopate]

Dan G and Mack,

I would love to continue this dialogue and recommend we move into another forum, so this one can remain on topic. I'll start a thread in Off Topic general under the title of "Jaco." Hope to see you there.

[Wickel]

BRIS numbers are just fine, thank you. Especially the internal fraction figures. I find them far superior to Beyer figures. As for touting Ragozin figures, I really don't have an opinion, or will I ever for the prices they charge. Anyway, back to BRIS, like many here, I don't pay too much attention to the final number, but the fractional numbers help me immensely.