M/L odds of Longshots

[Cesario!]

Has anyone with a database reserached the average morning-line odds of horses that win at 8-1 or better? How about 15-1 or better?

I would assume the results would be better at major tracks with more reliable morning lines.

You always hear about the 4-1 ML that paid $80, but I wonder whether this is more anectodal than proven over time.

[OTM Al]

I DB East Coast tracks plus Keeneland and the majority of $100,000+ stakes races wherever they are run. Here's some quick figures I got from 1/1/2004 through last Sunday

ML >=8-1

9328 Obs.

Median Final Odds: 9.5
Median ML Odds 10
Avg Final Odds 12.8
Avg ML Odds 11.3

ML>=15-1

2022 Obs.

Median Final Odds 18.2
Median ML Odds 15
Avg Final Odds 22.5
Avg ML Odds 17.6

Not really sure what story to tell with these #s, but its what got spit out

[Cesario!]

Thanks! Do you know if there is any difference in those numbers among classes?

[bigmack]

You need to separate the data by a multitude of factors to actually get info that means something you can put into play. Their M/L means little without asking if it's sprint/route, track specifics, any bias at the time of the running, conditions/class level of the race...

http://www.hollywood-north.net/yulbrenner.jpg

Etcetera, etcetera..

[dav4463]

I don't have data to support it, but I would think the field size should matter. In an 8 horse or less field, 6-1 should be a longshot. In a larger field, I would look at 8-1+ as probable longshots.

[OTM Al]

I would tend to agree with both statements.

[Robert Fischer]

A lot of "live" longshots are in the +-4 range of 10-1 in the morning line, and go off a little bit higher by post time. Much is race specific. As with FTS, value of any possible live longshots are often found in the races in which the market itself is live, and a solid-but not spectacular type is being heavily bet as a "symbolic" favorite.
Again race specific, are causations for the higher morning line odds of this particular animal.