how to get lucky in the short term

[formula_2002]

play the longer odds and quit when you are ahead of the curve!!
http://www.betitandforgetit.com/gettinglucky.html

[singunner]

Luck?

...pardon?

[Tom]

Huh?

[singunner]

All I can make of that article is that some people will experience one extreme of the standard deviation and will thus make a profit, but there's no way to know if you're going to be one of those people, and if you're not, you're just out a bunch of money. I'm assuming, since this is from Formula, it's some kind of joke or commentary?

[ranchwest]

Luck is when preparation and opportunity meet.

[singunner]

Luck is when preparation and opportunity meet.
luck -
1) an unknown and unpredictable phenomenon that causes an event to result one way rather than another
2) An imaginary substance used as a substitution for skill by numerous players who unwillingly finance the expansion of casino industry around the world
3) What the other bowler always has but you, never.
4) Imaginary substance believed by many players to aid in winning. Should not be relied upon in place of skill.

Those are from Google's word definition feature (which I'm smitten with). Just type "Define XXXXX" and it pops out a list of definitions and their sources for you.

I think in your luck definition, we'd be better served by the word "probability" instead of "luck", though the two are often used interchangeably.

[Dan Montilion]

how to get lucky in the short term...

Closing bartender on ladies night.

[ranchwest]

luck -
1) an unknown and unpredictable phenomenon that causes an event to result one way rather than another
2) An imaginary substance used as a substitution for skill by numerous players who unwillingly finance the expansion of casino industry around the world
3) What the other bowler always has but you, never.
4) Imaginary substance believed by many players to aid in winning. Should not be relied upon in place of skill.

Those are from Google's word definition feature (which I'm smitten with). Just type "Define XXXXX" and it pops out a list of definitions and their sources for you.

I think in your luck definition, we'd be better served by the word "probability" instead of "luck", though the two are often used interchangeably.

Yeah, well, I've never seen anyone get lucky without participating.

[bigmack]

play the longer odds and quit when you are ahead of the curve!!
form 02 -
I have to hand it to ya. You're in a constant search for a consistant level of profitability. I think I pimped you once with a little play on the Ron Popeil "SetIt&ForgetIt" thing. Scratch that as anyone who works as hard as you on dialing in a system to end 'up' has my vote for most arduously at play.

Provided you have a viable reason, play nothing less than 5 and you will be profitable. Stone cold true, providing your viable reasons are sound.

[formula_2002]

All I can make of that article is that some people will experience one extreme of the standard deviation and will thus make a profit, but there's no way to know if you're going to be one of those people, and if you're not, you're just out a bunch of money. I'm assuming, since this is from Formula, it's some kind of joke or commentary?
It’s intended as a “matter of interest”.

As the following shows, +-1 standard deviation represents a +- 34% chance of happening.
You really have little control over it. If your betting skills are such that your results fall within +1 ( z score ) from the mean, you need to win fewer races at 10-1 odds (2.87 more than normal) than playing 1-1 odds (5 more races than normal).
But those 2.87 races represent 31% above what is normal than at 10-1 odds while the 5 races represent but 10% above what is normal at 1-1 odds. (column j / column h in the chart).
I think I have to re-title the chart “It’s harder to get lucky playing long shots” :blush:

http://coe.sdsu.edu/eet/Articles/standarddev/index.htm

[formula_2002]

luck -
1) an unknown and unpredictable phenomenon that causes an event to result one way rather than another
2) An imaginary substance used as a substitution for skill by numerous players who unwillingly finance the expansion of casino industry around the world
3) What the other bowler always has but you, never.
4) Imaginary substance believed by many players to aid in winning. Should not be relied upon in place of skill.

Those are from Google's word definition feature (which I'm smitten with). Just type "Define XXXXX" and it pops out a list of definitions and their sources for you.

I think in your luck definition, we'd be better served by the word "probability" instead of "luck", though the two are often used interchangeably.


Let me add one more definition.
Probability is +-. Luck is "+" if you are playing the plass line or "-" if you are playing the "don't" . Some consideration must also be given to your point of view.;)

[singunner]

Haha. I getcha. As long as we're not talking about using this as a serious long-term betting strategy. :)

I usually find it more interesting to look at how long it takes to narrow in on your mean than how you could play with your standard deviation to abuse it. (seeing as it's just as easy to be abused by it)

[ryesteve]

Haha. I getcha. As long as we're not talking about using this as a serious long-term betting strategy.
I think it's safe to say that Joe's long-term betting strategy is to not do it, since winning is "impossible".

[kenwoodallpromos]

Yes, it is usually standard for my horse to deviate in the mid point of the 2nd curve!LOL!!

[formula_2002]

It’s intended as a “matter of interest”.

As the following shows, +-1 standard deviation represents a +- 34% chance of happening.
You really have little control over it. If your betting skills are such that your results fall within +1 ( z score ) from the mean, you need to win fewer races at 10-1 odds (2.87 more than normal) than playing 1-1 odds (5 more races than normal).
But those 2.87 races represent 31% above what is normal than at 10-1 odds while the 5 races represent but 10% above what is normal at 1-1 odds. (column j / column h in the chart).
I think I have to re-title the chart “It’s harder to get lucky playing long shots” :blush:

http://coe.sdsu.edu/eet/Articles/standarddev/index.htm

I think I was right the 1st time. See note # 7 in the following thread.
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=353487#post353487