NE/SD

[Valuist]

Pinny is no longer an option and I don't feel like betting -110 thru a local, so IF was betting this game I'd take

SAN DIEGO -5. In this game, the general public is 95% on the Patriots. They are mistakenly thinking that this is the 2003 or 2004 Patriots simply because Brady is still the QB and Belichek is still coach. They also are overreacting to the way the Pats beat up on a relatively weak Jet team last week. While the Pats were being flattered by the Jets, SD was resting. IMO, the Chargers have the best player in the NFL (Tomlinson) and one of the top 2-3 defensive players in the league (Merriman). Marty won't be calling the plays; Cam Cameron will. San Diego makes its statement and send the Pats packing.

[BetHorses!]

SAN DIEGO -5. In this game, the general public is 95% on the Patriots.

Must be the people who think they will avenge the 51-10 loss to San Diego in the AFL championship in 1963 :)

[BIG RED]

......almost like the 97% of horse handicappers

[bigmack]

I just leaned into it fairly hard. 4 1/2 seems generous.

[BIG RED]

Seriously, simple, who do you think will WIN the game ?

[Robert Fischer]

I like the Patriots in this game. San Diego will want to play on emotion from the initial kickoff.
When the game starts to slow down, New England will take the advantage.

I think that I like Rivers a lot, - San Diego has done so well with defense and the running game, that I think there are maybe some unanswered questions.

[Suff]

Patriots maybe a different team.... But with thier playoff record and road record I can't see betting against them. It maybe a game to pass.

If forced to bet I'd take the points. It has the feel of a trap game. 5 points just seem so generous its hard to grasp. 5's a touchdown in my mind..... I can't recall many games landing on 5. Its a funky scoreboard to see 17 to 12, or 38-33.

Chargers have to lay it on them to cover and maybe they will, but I would'nt bet on it. Chargers may win....but by less than 6.

[SAL]

Coaching counts. You can bet Belichick will be well prepared for this. And you can't fault Tom Brady's record in the postseason, only one loss in his career. This will be Phillip Rivers first playoff appearance. My money will be on the Patriots.

[rastajenk]

I had a feeling before last week's games that NE could go out there and knock off the Chargers, and I haven't seen anything on th line or in the news to sway my thinking. I guess my point of reference is the way both came into Cincinnati and beat my Bengals. The Chargers had a huge second-half comeback against a Gandhi defense, while the Pats pushed them around old style from start to finish on O and on D. Chargers may be this year's team of destiny, but in a season full of sudden form cycles, I like NE to win outright.

[dccprez]

My 2 cents;

If SD wins it has to be/will be via a blowout (say 31-10).

A close game under any scenario goes to NE.

I am a born-and-bred Bostonian and a huge Patriots fan. But I am leaning towards the former (blowout) simply because the Pats start slowly - the first quarter isn't their best. They are like an old car with a big V-8; it takes a little whilel to warm up but once it does the horsepower kicks in and it cruises untouched. SD can get out of the gate very quickly and put up points fast and that does not bode well for the Pats. If they get behind they'll have to put the ball in the air a lot and they simply don't have the talent in their receiving corps to win a shootout.

The Pats best and really only chance is for the defense to pull off the "bend-but-don't-break" game plan; LDT puts up 165 yards rushing but only one touchdown, River's doesn't go-off and the the game is close going into the 4th Quarter. At that point "Playoff-Pedigree" comes into play. Pats win.

[Shacopate]

It's very hard to pick against Brady and the hoodey come playoff time, but the Chargers are the real deal; LT, Rivers and a great defense.

I just hope it's a good game. I agree that if it's close, the Pat's should win.

[Suff]

This guy Rivers? Its his first playoff game? I just learned that.


:lol:

You can't bet a guy who never had a Playoff game before! How can you do that?

Rivers is a first time starter with excellent morning workouts. That often does translate to the afternoon.

Like I say... SD may win, maybe they blow the Patriots out...

But many of the guys on the Patriots Defense have a dozen playoff wins, a few superbowl rings....,,,, whatever they can do to get in Rivers head.....they are going to do. I bet you they do it good to.

Even if you don't like the Patriots, It would be a complete guess as to how Rivers will handle the pressure.

Godd luck

[JimG]

Who do I hope wins the game? Chargers

Who do I think will win the game? Patriots.

[JPinMaryland]

I will officially choose San Diego to cover.

On general principles, NE is much more well known to the public than SD, many assume this is the same team that won 3 SBs. So on the basis of where the public's mind will be, it has to be overly favorable to NE.

Second general principle is that teams w/ the bye win an in ordinate amount of time. It was up to 82% at one pt. then it got knocked down a few pts. So you've got the bye for SD plus this is a long trip across the continent which again in general tends to be more of a factor than the public assumes. MOre specific,it's a road game going across 3 time zones which is significant (in general terms). There's also a climate factor but it's been warm in the east so far, so maybe not much of a factor.

So on two basic principles I will go SD.

THen you've got a lot of SD players who havent played in the playoffs vs experience of NE. I believe this factor is overrated, I dont know of any objective basis to think that it matters. But there are stories about it happening in the SB and not just stories it has happened. But SD is playing at home, there is nothing about being in SD for a playoff that should make the stadium seem any different...So I guess it's overrated factor. Bet on SD.

What else? LD is real good Merriman is real good. Nothing wrong w/ them. I guess we'll see.

[bigmack]

SD @ home, what's the value in that? About the same as Chicago at Soldier

[JPinMaryland]

I think the home field is MORE of a factor when you are traveling 3 time zones. One would think the home field factor is already built into the line, my pt. is if cross continental travel is undervalued...then the line should be more.

I guess the bye is already built in to the line, but again a lot of people disagree on this or else dont agree that's that big a factor. Having had these discussions before it seems no one can agree on HOW MUCH the bye is worth.

As near as I can figure the value of the bye:

Home field, 3 pts. (on average)...Or favors 53%-47%. This number is empirically based.

Presumably Better team....5 pts?? or i.e. favors better team 55%-45%.. This number is not empirically based but based on what the best teams do vs. average team and extrapolating..

Extra week rest...10 pts??? or 60%-40%

It still isnt enuf to explain why the team with the extra rest is winning e..g 75% of the time...But that extra week must mean alot.

As for Chicago, that line was presumably biased in favor of the Bears as they are more well known to the public than the Seahawks. Had to be too many to cover.

[JPinMaryland]

See? 14-10 at the half, no problem.

Oh wait, the Marty factor! I forgot about the Marty factor...Stupid stupid, stupid. :bang:

[Suff]

<cough> <cough>

[dccprez]

My 2 cents;

If SD wins it has to be/will be via a blowout (say 31-10).

A close game under any scenario goes to NE.

I am a born-and-bred Bostonian and a huge Patriots fan. But I am leaning towards the former (blowout) simply because the Pats start slowly - the first quarter isn't their best. They are like an old car with a big V-8; it takes a little whilel to warm up but once it does the horsepower kicks in and it cruises untouched. SD can get out of the gate very quickly and put up points fast and that does not bode well for the Pats. If they get behind they'll have to put the ball in the air a lot and they simply don't have the talent in their receiving corps to win a shootout.

The Pats best and really only chance is for the defense to pull off the "bend-but-don't-break" game plan; LDT puts up 165 yards rushing but only one touchdown, River's doesn't go-off and the the game is close going into the 4th Quarter. At that point "Playoff-Pedigree" comes into play. Pats win.


All kneel before the true Football Psychic! It's as if they follwed my SCRIPT for the game!

(now if only I could predict the races as well...)

[DJofSD]

Defeat snatched from the jaws of victory -- I know it's not original but what can you say about stupid ass errors. And fire the grounds keeper for that slippery surface, no excuse for that.

[bigmack]

All kneel before the true Football Psychic! It's as if they follwed my SCRIPT for the game!
I sized up a match race once. I figured the 1 would blow out the 2 and I leaned in that direction as the 2 gets out of the gate sluggishly.

If the 1 didn't blow out the 2 and it was close I figured it would be the 2 prevailing in the end. It turned out to be close and the 2 prevailed.

All kneel before the true match race Psychic!

[Suff]

Defeat snatched from the jaws of victory -- I know it's not original but what can you say about stupid ass errors. And fire the grounds keeper for that slippery surface, no excuse for that.

They had to many shots to take NE out and did'nt. They got a home team call on the reversal of the fumble at the goal line (2nd quarter). That was catch and that was a fumble.

NE almost blew it... Gave up the middle.

If you had to hang it on one mistake. Marty challenged the fumble on the interception and fumble. It was baseless, and cost them a timeout. A timeout if they had it, they'd be in overtime right now.

Big win and one more puts them in the BIG ONE. Then we'll talk dynasty team.

Next Goal..? Super Bowl and World series championship in the same year!!

[JPinMaryland]

Yeah the challenge call. What was he challenging anyway? Guy on tv said he is challenging whether the ball was caught before he hit the ground or something. Huh?? That would probably have saved them like 30 sec. at the end of the game. :faint:

Nice going Marty!

[RXB]

That was the worst challenge that I've ever seen. It's almost incomprehensible. There went 20 seconds of clock that they needed late in the game.

Also, they blew it on the last drive by not spiking the ball after the initial first-down catch.

[Valuist]

Another Schottenheimer team blows it. Now one has to think NE really is the team to beat, even going on the road to Indy. Pinny saved me some $$ here.

[dccprez]

I sized up a match race once. I figured the 1 would blow out the 2 and I leaned in that direction as the 2 gets out of the gate sluggishly.

If the 1 didn't blow out the 2 and it was close I figured it would be the 2 prevailing in the end. It turned out to be close and the 2 prevailed.

All kneel before the true match race Psychic!


That's a funny story...but that's all it is - a made up STORY.

My NFL psychic-ness is obviously REAL as evidenced by my dead-on prediction of a close game going in favor of the Pats. (See earlier posting)

It's pretty obvious that you are lashing out because you are jealous of me Mack. But that is ok. I understand and can take it. As a major-psychic I am menta;-strong. I realize that not everyone can be psychicly gifted like me! So I'll still be your pal inspite of your non-physchical brain.

[bigmack]

My 2 cents;

If SD wins it has to be/will be via a blowout (say 31-10).

A close game under any scenario goes to NE.

I am a born-and-bred Bostonian and a huge Patriots fan. But I am leaning towards the former (blowout) simply because the Pats start slowly - the first quarter isn't their best. They are like an old car with a big V-8; it takes a little whilel to warm up but once it does the horsepower kicks in and it cruises untouched. SD can get out of the gate very quickly and put up points fast and that does not bode well for the Pats. If they get behind they'll have to put the ball in the air a lot and they simply don't have the talent in their receiving corps to win a shootout.

The Pats best and really only chance is for the defense to pull off the "bend-but-don't-break" game plan; LDT puts up 165 yards rushing but only one touchdown, River's doesn't go-off and the the game is close going into the 4th Quarter. At that point "Playoff-Pedigree" comes into play. Pats win.
You should change the headline to a penny. Two cents seems overvalued. Course I'm jaded.
You make little stance and ask for the recognition of a side show act.

[BIG RED]

See? 14-10 at the half, no problem.

Oh wait, the Marty factor! I forgot about the Marty factor...Stupid stupid, stupid. :bang:

Marty ball, Marty ball, Marty ball!

That game was all SD to win. Brady was in a funk most of the game. Our D had some good & bad moments. We have seemed to be a 2nd half team for years now. I told a few fiends of mine if SD scores early we could be done. This is the team I figured would be at the dance.

By leaving the Pats somewhat close (what were they up, by 8? at one time), SD gives Coach B and QB T to work thier magic. Shorty did coach lousy (4th and 11, go for it? and the other things that have ben mentioned). All the No1 places in the stats where SD held were all reversed in that game (for one, undefeated at home)

How we pulled that one off is beyond me. The way SD was coached, and the way the Pats never gave in and grinded, clawed, and mauled there way back, contributed in to a ........

Great Game and even a.....


GREATER WIN!!

[rastajenk]

Time will tell, but I think that one yesterday will rank near the top of all Brady's playoff heroics. SD was as tough a playoff out as the Pats will have faced during their dynasty. They had the team, the record, the home field, the week off, all these things that add up to a pretty good Brady Beyer, so to speak, and still he was always in control. An eight-point TD and a high-percentage field goal? That's heady stuff.

[Suff]

My 2 cents;

If SD wins it has to be/will be via a blowout (say 31-10).

A close game under any scenario goes to NE.

I am a born-and-bred Bostonian and a huge Patriots fan. But I am leaning towards the former (blowout) simply because the Pats start slowly -


Umm Exuse me Carnac the Magnificent.... I see you painted both scenarios and "leaned' towards blowout?

Mack, subtley and simply stated he took a big swing at the Patriots.

Your shit talking skills have obviously slid since you moved outside of 128.:D

Its just a game. Calmish, downish.

Nice hit Mack.

[BIG RED]

Suff, sometimes you are a riot :lol:

[Valuist]

Brady's "heroics" could be attributed to him playing so lousy for the first 3 1/2 quarters. If he played halfway decently, they wouldn't have needed that comeback. Barely over 50%, about 5 yards per attempt and 3 picks. We heard plenty about Manning playing poorly in the Colts win, but where was Brady for the first 55 minutes of the game?

[Suff]

Brady's "heroics" could be attributed to him playing so lousy for the first 3 1/2 quarters. If he played halfway decently, they wouldn't have needed that comeback. Barely over 50%, about 5 yards per attempt and 3 picks. We heard plenty about Manning playing poorly in the Colts win, but where was Brady for the first 55 minutes of the game?

Your right, and THAT is what the bet is next week. That won't happen two weeks in a row. Historical data suggests a career performance. If that happens then who would you bet?

[Valuist]

I'm not saying I would bet against them. Just that Brady played about 5 good minutes against the Chargers.

I know everyone ASSUMES the Pats will go in and kick the Colts butts, but the Colts are tough in that building, and now the Colts have beaten the Pats head to head the last two times they've played. And getting Bob Sanders back is HUGE. The guy is probably the most underrated defensive player in the NFL. As for betting the game, I no longer bet sports. Minus 104 lines at Pinny were worthwhile but I'm not going to play the 110/100 game w/a local. I get good rebate money. My wagering will stick to horses.

Speaking of coming off weak games, Manning is coming off one himself. One of these days he will win the big game........the window may be closing but SD figured to be a worse matchup for them.

[dccprez]

Umm Exuse me Carnac the Magnificent.... I see you painted both scenarios and "leaned' towards blowout?

Mack, subtley and simply stated he took a big swing at the Patriots.

Your shit talking skills have obviously slid since you moved outside of 128.:D

Its just a game. Calmish, downish.

Nice hit Mack.

Hey SUFF, Hey MACK;

It was a JOKE you friggin' zipperheads. Christallmighty!

"Calmish, downish"? Puh-leeze...

(Of course this may just be "the jealous" coming out of you again because you still envy my physic-ed-ness. WAIT, that's IT! It's the jealous! HAH!)

Ok... I'll let you slide this time.