karlskorner
01-11-2007, 09:51 AM
From the Derby List
A question by Ed DeRosa workouts (first time sarters and long layoffs)
How much credance do you pay to a workout pattern when handicapping first-time starters ? Do breaks concern you ? Does your view change depending on any variables such as trainer, age, or distance of race ? I'll forgive a two-week break in the middle or early in the pattern but don't like to see more than one two-week break, and anything longer usually results in a toss.
Answer from Lee Tomlinson:
A factor I like relates to receny and furlongs worked. I look back four workouts from raceday, and count the number of furlongs worked in those four works. The closer the number of furlongs comes to the number of cumulative days in those four workouts, the better I like it.
Examples: Horse "A" - Last four works were 5, 12, 19, 25 days ago. Last four distances were 4f, 5f, 5f, 4f. Thats 18 furlongs in 25 days...Average.
Horse "B" - Last four works were 4, 5, 6, 6 days ago. Last four distances were 4f, 4, 5f, 6f. That's 19 furlongs in 21 days. Excellent ratio. When the total number of furlongs worked equals or exceeds the number of days in the four previous workouts, I sit up and take serious notice.
Credit for this formula goes to Steve Unite. (end)
A question by Ed DeRosa workouts (first time sarters and long layoffs)
How much credance do you pay to a workout pattern when handicapping first-time starters ? Do breaks concern you ? Does your view change depending on any variables such as trainer, age, or distance of race ? I'll forgive a two-week break in the middle or early in the pattern but don't like to see more than one two-week break, and anything longer usually results in a toss.
Answer from Lee Tomlinson:
A factor I like relates to receny and furlongs worked. I look back four workouts from raceday, and count the number of furlongs worked in those four works. The closer the number of furlongs comes to the number of cumulative days in those four workouts, the better I like it.
Examples: Horse "A" - Last four works were 5, 12, 19, 25 days ago. Last four distances were 4f, 5f, 5f, 4f. Thats 18 furlongs in 25 days...Average.
Horse "B" - Last four works were 4, 5, 6, 6 days ago. Last four distances were 4f, 4, 5f, 6f. That's 19 furlongs in 21 days. Excellent ratio. When the total number of furlongs worked equals or exceeds the number of days in the four previous workouts, I sit up and take serious notice.
Credit for this formula goes to Steve Unite. (end)