Maidens

[Show Me the Wire]

Okay with Maiden Busters II on the horizon, I have a timely question. Bear with me as my forte' is not maidens. In fact I very rarely venture into the maiden waters.

So here is my question regarding your observations and/ or data regarding the likely hood of a first time starter winning a maiden race. Here are the parameters a full field of at least 8 horses with at least 50% or more of the entrants have multiple starts (two or more).

Using the above parameters is it easier for a FTS to win a high end race, i.e. MSW, expensive Mcl or bottom level Mcl race?

Any thoughts on the subject?

[46zilzal]

since each horse is completely different except for the fact that they are all learning to run, the MAN-MADE classification for where they run is irrelevant.

[1st time lasix]

I truly enjoy young maiden races. I much prefer them to the low level claiming races dominated by pace that generally fill most cards. I think they are fun to hit and plenty of overlays occur in the exotics. By watching them closely i get horses to watch in my stable list I use certain parameters .....but it starts with a working knowledge of breeding/pedigree. I study hot sires and established ones that excell at getting good offspring to run early in their careers. I try to make an estimate of the class of the dam as best I can by seeking the track record and knowing the dam's sire. I follow the trainer numbers on firsters and on two year olds in general. I like to follow the training pattern/work pattern scedule and I like to see two works at 12 seconds per furlong for MSW. {One is generally not enough.} Firsters from big famous barns at very low prices are dangerous to the bankroll. Many are underlays and false favorites. {All Pletcher's horses are not the same!}Their inexperience can defeat them. Firsters at higher "overlay" odds that meet my criteria are welcome. They may be capable of lighting up the tote if no horse in the field has run par .....or if the second time out Maidens have no real talent. I generally will not play a firster on top in a maiden claiming race unless the trainer has a 20% or greater win percentage with that specific angle. I figure if the horse was good....why would the connection put the horse in for a tag. A special spot in my day is when we see a msw turf races for young horses on the card. I have hit several signers in this scenario. I use the Tomlinson numbers, try to beat inexperienced favorite and spread my tickets if i can expect some chaos.

[BIG RED]

Well, looks like 3 more to dive in! the whole idea of MBII is to, if you will, explain why you come up with your picks for mdns/mdncl. Great for the newbies, and we know they are tuff races, that's why some times you can get great prices!

[Show Me the Wire]

I truly enjoy young maiden races. I much prefer them to the low level claiming races dominated by pace that generally fill most cards. I think they are fun to hit and plenty of overlays occur in the exotics. By watching them closely i get horses to watch in my stable list I use certain parameters .....but it starts with a working knowledge of breeding/pedigree. I study hot sires and established ones that excell at getting good offspring to run early in their careers. I try to make an estimate of the class of the dam as best I can by seeking the track record and knowing the dam's sire. I follow the trainer numbers on firsters and on two year olds in general. I like to follow the training pattern/work pattern scedule and I like to see two works at 12 seconds per furlong for MSW. {One is generally not enough.} Firsters from big famous barns at very low prices are dangerous to the bankroll. Many are underlays and false favorites. {All Pletcher's horses are not the same!}Their inexperience can defeat them. Firsters at higher "overlay" odds that meet my criteria are welcome. They may be capable of lighting up the tote if no horse in the field has run par .....or if the second time out Maidens have no real talent. I generally will not play a firster on top in a maiden claiming race unless the trainer has a 20% or greater win percentage with that specific angle. I figure if the horse was good....why would the connection put the horse in for a tag. A special spot in my day is when we see a msw turf races for young horses on the card. I have hit several signers in this scenario. I use the Tomlinson numbers, try to beat inexperienced favorite and spread my tickets if i can expect some chaos.

All you say is true. And yes that is what I was thinking about, how realistic are the chances of a first time starter put in at bottom level tags. Are the FTS, at the bottom levels so bad they have zilch chance to win (contrarian thinking) versus the thinking FTS are a good wager as there is not much in the race and vise-versa for high-end FTS?

[46zilzal]

can you imagine this same question asked in ANY OTHER CONTEXT and it sounding even a bit like it makes sense?

Coach at Ohio State: lets review his Freshman class and find out a generalization about the "average" football player.

John Wooden in the 70's: What type of maiden players did he have?.....

INDIVIDUALS in both cases with no generalizations allowed.

all you can say is that they are maturing as players: some mature faster than others....

[Valuist]

GENERALLY SPEAKING (I had to put that disclaimer in because I know somebody will cite examples disputing this), first time starters tend to overbet. I think too many people fall in love with big yearling prices or flashy bloodlines. Obviously there are some barns who are decent with first timers but most aren't. I also think most horses benefit from the experience factor. I've seen a number of times where only one horse in a given race had a previous start and that horse ends up winning. A lot of horses also move forward between their first and second races (any James Jerkens runner) and some barns point for the horse's third start (Ken McPeek). Keep charts and follow which races become key; not just next out winner but eventual graduates and you'll do ok. I also think first timers tend to do better in Mdn Special races as opposed to maiden claiming.

[BIG RED]

...that's a team sport, these majestics are on there own :)

[Show Me the Wire]

46zizal:

I appreciate your input. But context is important in all discusions. Any item taken out of context is absurd.

[46zilzal]

not allowed to carry over I thought......Rag me in the off topic all you want

[Show Me the Wire]

Valuist:

Your insight is noted about jump-ups second out. Why I put the parameter of multiple starts, at least two, as I wanted to make it an experienced field the FTS have to compete against.

[Show Me the Wire]

not allowed to carry over I thought......Rag me in the off topic all you want

I am agreeing with you, it would sound absurd. Oh, I see I should have not typed "but". An error during my rewrite.

[46zilzal]

...that's a team sport, these majestics are on there own :
Just another example of this ingrained belief that the trainer/coach is somehow the player.....In neither case is that true. INDIVIDUALS do what INDIVIDUALS are able to do and the coach/trainer just helps: doesn't run or play the sport for them....

One is active the other passive.....I vote for following the active one.

[BIG RED]

A-greed

[46zilzal]

I followed abut 150 maiden graduates an average of three races back and the one thing that is the most consistent is no great surprise: improving early speed progressively later into each successive contest.....over and over.....It is the horse learning to run, not the trainer.

[skate]

Just another example of this ingrained belief that the trainer/coach is somehow the player.....In neither case is that true. INDIVIDUALS do what INDIVIDUALS are able to do and the coach/trainer just helps: doesn't run or play the sport for them....

One is active the other passive.....I vote for following the active one.

wow, follow 45 and you'll be a '44', overnight.

such insight and wisdom.



a little meditation please, on, "Ingrained Belief that the trainer/coach is somehow the Player".
but, 45 comes thru, with, "neither case is true".

thank you for 'insighting'

[46zilzal]

What an elaborate way (sans the use of the SHIFT key) of just saying "baloney."

[Show Me the Wire]

I followed abut 150 maiden graduates an average of three races back and the one thing that is the most consistent is no great surprise: improving early speed progressively later into each successive contest.....over and over.....It is the horse learning to run, not the trainer.

Okay so is it easier for a FTS to win against horses learning to run faster at higher level races, bottom level races or there is no difference?

[46zilzal]

Individuals that have never raced are a question mark no matter where their connections put them. You don't have any evidence what they will do style wise, how they will react to the intreaction of a herd (since they usually only train in the company of another horse), workouts in the quiet non-competitive AM are not a key, etc..


IN THE OTHER HAND: animals that have raced give you some guide as to how these "Students" are learning their game.

[Fastracehorse]

There was a FTS at Aqu that won yesterday in Rc 6.

There were signs in the works.

It's hard to play horses just on sharp preps but there occur situations where it is easier.

fffastt

[Show Me the Wire]

There was a FTS at Aqu that won yesterday in Rc 6.

There were signs in the works.

It's hard to play horses just on sharp preps but there occur situations where it is easier.

fffastt

Yes, however the race did not qualify under the parameters.

[BIG RED]

I, myself, am a player when it comes to FTS. I have gotten huge prices from them. I use works, that's all I have. Mostly, work patterns, who by the way, is the trainer training the animal. The horse wins the race, but the trainer got him there. No?

[46zilzal]

Good friend had a skinny gelding who ran into a fence post as a baby almost killing him. Trained sluggishly not showing much. Started in a 5K Md Claimer and won by 10. Came back to win in allowance and went on to be a multiple stakes winner of almost 600K......A smart trainer and owner. Did they know beforehand? Not likely. Only found out when this one went up against competition..

[46zilzal]

I, myself, am a player when it comes to FTS. I have gotten huge prices from them. I use works, that's all I have. Mostly, work patterns, who by the way, is the trainer training the animal. The horse wins the race, but the trainer got him there. No?
the horse, and it's implicit ability got the HORSE to the races....Trainer only guided him


Ever been out there in the AM? works are so over-rated as a guide to ability

[Show Me the Wire]

Big Red:

But were they in races like the 6th at the Big A, populated by mainly FTS?

Maybe my question is a novel one?

[BIG RED]

the horse, and it's implicit ability got the HORSE to the races....Trainer only guided him


Ever been out there in the AM? works are so over-rated as a guide to ability

No, I usually come in in the a.m. :D But I have at Suffolk and Saratoga. You can not throw the trainer out of the equation with FTS.

[BIG RED]

Big Red:

But were they in races like the 6th at the Big A, populated by mainly FTS?

Maybe my question is a novel one?

Just from memory now, I played a mdn race at Cal, 8 FTSs, + 4 who had run. I hit over a 2K exacta on works alone. 1 early speed and 1 works alone. FTS won. If I am right, I believe Stute was the trainer.

[befuddlem]

Good friend had a skinny gelding who ran into a fence post as a baby almost killing him. Trained sluggishly not showing much. Started in a 5K Md Claimer and won by 10. Came back to win in allowance and went on to be a multiple stakes winner of almost 600K......A smart trainer and owner. Did they know beforehand? Not likely. Only found out when this one went up against competition..

Perhaps your good friend didn't have an inkling about his horse, but most competent trainers do. This is why there are maiden claiming and maiden allowance events. Clearly, when a trainer puts a horse in a maiden claiming event, he puts the "for sale" sign on. He doesn not think much of his stock.
Your friend made a mistake by entering that horse at that level. This happens,
but not to the extent that you think it does. Claiming levels, whether they be maiden or not, are usually a pretty good yardstick as to what the horse is worth.

[46zilzal]

keep wasting your time in passive mode

[befuddlem]

And what was the name of that horse?
The one your friend had who earned over 600k.

[46zilzal]

And what was the name of that horse?
The one your friend had who earned over 600k.

got the total wrong as he was dq-d from a stake at EMD
VERNON INVADER (CAN) dkb/br. G, 1995 DP = 5-9-12-0-2 (28) DI = 2.50 CD = 0.54 - 42 Starts, 14 Wins, 7 Places, 3 Shows Career Earnings: $466,151

[befuddlem]

Oh yeah!
Hastings Park. I know that horse well.

[bigmack]

IN THE OTHER HAND: animals that have raced give you some guide as to how these "Students" are learning their game.
Hey Zilly, I ran into a tape of Ruffians maiden run
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pPk0-HA6_do

Here's her last
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ga50lpOMEus

[befuddlem]

Do you think her connections knew they were sitting on a nice one, or should they have tried maiden claiming?

[PlanB]

Has anyone (or any service) rated Maidens on its Pedigree for FRONT RUNNING SPEED? Yeah, Kelly Kip, Mr Prospector, Groovy, HouseBuster progeny, but why not the recognition of front speed?

[Show Me the Wire]

any one with an opinion about the difficulty of task for a FTS running against a mostly experienced fields. Any thoughts if it is easier for a FTS to run against experienced MSWs and high-end claimers or is it an easier task to win against an experienced field of bottom level claimers populated by a mixture of class droppers?

Do you think the presence of experienced class dropping horses in bottom levels make it much more difficult for a FTS to win?

[46zilzal]

Do rookies perform as well as seasoned athletes of lesser ability? not usually

same here

[BIG RED]

If you are talking drops in mdn races, is there such a thing as class?

[befuddlem]

If you are talking drops in mdn races, is there such a thing as class?
Oh I believe there is. I've made some pretty good scores on animals that looked pathetic in mdspw, and dropped into mdcl for the first time. Many of them won and paid double digits. If this isn't class, I don't know what is.

[Show Me the Wire]

Big Red:

There is always such a thing as class. Horses are herd animals and thus have a pecking order. I have seen enough horses dropping from a level of mcl to another level and win.

[Show Me the Wire]

Oh I believe there is. I've made some pretty good scores on animals that looked pathetic in mdspw, and dropped into mdcl for the first time. Many of them won and paid double digits. If this isn't class, I don't know what is.

Biggest drop in horse racing.

[befuddlem]

Big Red:

There is always such a thing as class. Horses are herd animals and thus have a pecking order. I have seen enough horses dropping from a level of mcl to another level and win.


Show Me the Wire,

Do you think, given the herd instinct of a horse, that a horse has an inherent class and that he wil always remain with what he is born with, or does the horse gain class with age, and drive to advance in the herd hierarchy?

[BIG RED]

Maybe I put that wrong :)

A lot of cappers will look at $$$ earned to go the class route. I agree nothing more deadly than a mdn dropping in a mdncl

[Show Me the Wire]

Show Me the Wire,

Do you think, given the herd instinct of a horse, that a horse has an inherent class and that he wil always remain with what he is born with, or does the horse gain class with age, and drive to advance in the herd hierarchy?

I really do not know. But a big difference in racing versus nature is the herd is always changing and maybe status does change with age.

[Show Me the Wire]

befuddlem:

Now that I responded to your insightfull question about and my response about changing herds, it triggered a thought. The FTS may have a practically insurmountable challenge to establish its pecking order in a herd of animals in which the composition of the herd does not change much and that would be at the lower levels.

[bigmack]

Hows come ain't none of you bloaks have yapped about the aspect most elusive to the average player yet of utmost importance in MDN's

Pedigreeeeeee

[Show Me the Wire]

Hows come ain't none of you bloaks have yapped about the aspect most elusive to the average player yet of utmost importance in MDN's

Pedigreeeeeee


Cause that ain't the topic. And what is a bloak? Some sort of derogatory term?

[befuddlem]

I think he meant to say bloke.

[classhandicapper]

Oh I believe there is. I've made some pretty good scores on animals that looked pathetic in mdspw, and dropped into mdcl for the first time. Many of them won and paid double digits. If this isn't class, I don't know what is.

The range of pace and final time figures for maidens of any class is much wider than at the higher levels. That is especially true of MSW races where sometimes you have a collection of budding stars and sometimes a collection of 20 time losers - all with the same class designation.

Invariably, a horse dropping from a tough MSW into a maiden claimer or maiden statebred will face a much softer pace and trip and often improve dramatically.

[Valuist]

I don't think you can trust the workouts, with the possible exception of Southern California, where they seem to police workouts more closely than the rest of the country. Another reason to avoid overbet first time starters.

[Tom]

Too bad they don't come out with a numerical pedigree rating that was tested and proven over tens of thousands of races. And a workout rating that was equally powerful. We can dream, can't we, Mac? :rolleyes:;)

[bigmack]

Too bad they don't come out with a numerical pedigree rating that was tested and proven over tens of thousands of races. And a workout rating that was equally powerful. We can dream, can't we, Mac?
When you holster a gun that that shoots every which way you can fathom you end up standing tall at the end of many battles.
Oh I believe there is. I've made some pretty good scores on animals that looked pathetic in mdspw, and dropped into mdcl for the first time. Many of them won and paid double digits. If this isn't class, I don't know what is.
"Drop in Class" is no longer viable. Folk read a book circa '74 about the colossal drop from MSW to MCL and adhere to that belief in 2007.

Wake up and smell the espresso. Lb 4 lb measurement of 'todays field' will get you far further than the class rating of the last outting.

[Show Me the Wire]

BigMack:

I understood Befuddlem meant one horse facing easier different company today.
Not to carte blanche play every horse moving down from one level to another.

However, this thread is about FTS and the task they need to accomplish. Obviously, a FTS is not a class dropper.

Do you have an opinion about the chances a FTS has to win depending on the class level, in general?

[bigmack]

Do you have an opinion about the chances a FTS has to win depending on the class level, in general?
Well, if the thread is about FTS and it's not about pedigree I haven't the slightest clue what position to take, outside of works and T/J.

[Tee]

Handicap the race as you would any other race with the information at hand.

Now specifically for FTS's

Does the pedigree fit for running well 1st out?
Is the trainer known for getting them ready 1st out?
Does the distance suit the first time starter?
What does the work pattern look like?
How does the 1ster look on track - composed or scared to an extreme degree?
Post position?
W.A.G at running style. :) & subsequent race shape.

Now for the experience runners.

Did one or more encounter trouble in their previous starts that would make them a overwhelming favorite over the first time starters? Do you think those previous starts were used for experience & a better effort will be in the works today?

Weigh the options with the info you have in front of you & use all the past experiences/knowledge that you have.

Make a decision, make the play.

[mudnturf]

A special spot in my day is when we see a msw turf races for young horses on the card. I have hit several signers in this scenario. I use the Tomlinson numbers, try to beat inexperienced favorite and spread my tickets if i can expect some chaos.[/QUOTE]


I've had a fair amount of success with first time turfers by COMBINING the Tomlinson TURF number with the Tomlinson DISTANCE number. Anything around or above the 700 number merits further consideration.

[Show Me the Wire]

Have to remember that tidbit Lee T. Thanks for the good info on how to use your numbers.

[dylbert]

Several excellent products exist -- many which are widely used

1. Tomlinson Ratings in DRF -- read how to use them. I have VHS tape with Lee Tomlinson explaining how he uses his figures. I recommend comparative analysis rather than adding numbers together.

2. Maiden Stats -- BRIS product that provides information on every North American foal for given year includes current 2YOs and previous year (this year's 3YOs). You get stats such as average winning distance of sire/dam, percent first time winners, percent mud winners, percent turf winners and more. I have only used CD version (also available in print).

3. Mike Helms Sire Ratings -- another product that rates sires and broodmare sires. I found using Sire Ratings tedious as it is presented in booklet form.

4. BreezeFigs from DRF -- pricey at $5 per day, but DRF offers free picks each weekend. I have hit some of these including monster bomb, Tontine Too, as first time starter. 46-to-1 and $495 Daily Double with 3/1 horse in following race.

5. Sharp works for proven connections -- but these become obvious on tote.

6. Most overlooked maiden angle (in my practiced opinion) is second time starter. Some trainers just seem to get more out of their maiden stock after they've made only one start. DRF stats give glimpse -- another tip, some trainer better with 2YO maidens, some better with 3YO maidens, turf, sprints, routes, etc.

I used to struggle with maidens. Now, I actually enjoy these races.

[betchatoo]

It is my (unsubstantiated) opinion that at major tracks, you have a better chance of first time starters winning in Maiden Special. I believe that if a trainer has a horse that he thinks can run well, he'll give him at least one shot in non-claiming. The better the trainer, the more likely this scenario.

[Robert Fischer]

For FTS I will first evaluate the field. Special attention to the favorites. When the market is up tempo, the public will often heavily back a single "solid-but not spectacular" favorite, simply because he is a known commodity.

[classhandicapper]

Too bad they don't come out with a numerical pedigree rating that was tested and proven over tens of thousands of races. And a workout rating that was equally powerful. We can dream, can't we, Mac? :rolleyes:;)

I have a few WO angles I have been using successfully for well over a decade. The beauty is they don't show up often enough for people to catch on.

I'd also like to comment on the accuracy of WOs.

Granted, a few months on the backstretch as a hotwalker at AQU 30 years ago hardly makes me an expert, but I did get a chance to track 20 horses in training, time some workouts myself, and then watch what was reported in the DRF. By and large the clockers did a very good job. I can only recall one missed workout over that entire time and I didn't see any blatant errors in the timings.

I also think it is WAY MORE LIKELY that if there is any info withheld it would be a fast workout and not the other way around. In other words, IMO you can trust the fast workouts, you just might not get them all.

[ranchwest]

Apparently this is some major revelation for some of you:

While basketball players today may be pampered, it is possible for them to feed and exercise themselves and bring themselves to the doctor.

Horses can't.

Does everyone now comprehend the difference between a basketball coach and a horse trainer?

[1st time lasix]

I've had a fair amount of success with first time turfers by COMBINING the Tomlinson TURF number with the Tomlinson DISTANCE number. Anything around or above the 700 number merits further consideration.[/QUOTE] I met Lee at the 2004 DRF expo. Nice gentleman. We discussed this topic over a cocktail at the reception. Now back at my own venue my partner ALWAYS combines these numbers as suggested in these races well in advance. Over 700 is a solid threshhold.... Thanks Mr T! It can uncover an overlay and this is why we all play this difficult game. My friends.......Pedigree/works/connections/tote action is all we have....the trick is to combine the factors and balance their importance versus the more experienced runners in the field.

[Show Me the Wire]

My friends.......Pedigree/works/connections/tote action is all we have....the trick is to combine the factors and balance their importance versus the more experienced runners in the field.

Will not disagree with your conclusion. However, do you have an opinion is it an esier task with a FTS with the right connections, works, tote action, etc. to complete the assigned task against MSW or hgh end Mcl versus bottom level Mcl?

As Betchtoo opined he felt it is easier for a FTS to win in a MSW race. That is the type of opinion, I am asking about, based on observation or data.

Look at it this way all the factors you listed, especially tote action, hint at what the connections think of the horse and just as important is the placement of the horse for its first start.

So really, I guess the question should be does a well meant FTS have an easier task against an experienced field of higher level horses or lower level horses?

[Fastracehorse]

Yes, however the race did not qualify under the parameters.

What paramaters are those??

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

Good friend had a skinny gelding who ran into a fence post as a baby almost killing him. Trained sluggishly not showing much. Started in a 5K Md Claimer and won by 10. Came back to win in allowance and went on to be a multiple stakes winner of almost 600K......A smart trainer and owner. Did they know beforehand? Not likely. Only found out when this one went up against competition..

I think you are right in many situations but there are times when they know they have a runner too.

Alot of good Mdn winners are prepped lightly or conservatively - which hints to the fact they have a good one and don't want to give it away.

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

Just from memory now, I played a mdn race at Cal, 8 FTSs, + 4 who had run. I hit over a 2K exacta on works alone. 1 early speed and 1 works alone. FTS won. If I am right, I believe Stute was the trainer.

It was at DMR: FTS to adjusted Beyer to FTS.

Firsters are awesome bets because they are so underbet.

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

Oh I believe there is. I've made some pretty good scores on animals that looked pathetic in mdspw, and dropped into mdcl for the first time. Many of them won and paid double digits. If this isn't class, I don't know what is.

But the converse is also true.

If U see a Mdn jumping in class for no reason it is a + angle.

This game is about guessing the animal's form. Is he dropping because he is formless or because he is in good form and wants to score??

Is he rising in class because they are trying today or just giving him a race and setting him up for next time??

fffastt

[Show Me the Wire]

Race 5 at The Great Race Place (SA) tomorrow is the type of mcl race I am talking about. Two FTS in against a nondesript experienced field or runners.

Does not look like too difficult of a field for a FTS to win, as the FTS does not have to beat much. But is it a very difficult task to accomplish because of the presence of many experienced runners?

[classhandicapper]

Race 5 at The Great Race Place (SA) tomorrow is the type of mcl race I am talking about. Two FTS in against a nondesript experienced field or runners.

Does not look like too difficult of a field for a FTS to win, as the FTS does not have to beat much. But is it a very difficult task to accomplish because of the presence of many experienced runners?

I like to look at the speed figures of the horses that have already run vs. the PAR for the class. That quickly gives you some kind of line on what quality FTS it's going to take to win. When you combine that with pedigree, owner, trainer, WOs, sale price, board action, etc... to give you a line on the FTS, you at least have a basis for a logical "guess".

Personally, unless I had a rock hard trainer pattern combined with a field that looked vulnerable, I wouldn't play a FTS to win except under very rare conditions (though I might use one in exotics if I felt I had value on another horse with racing experience inside the same race and didn't want to get beat by an unknown).

I don't mind betting AGAINST a FTS that's getting bet if I feel sure the trainer's style of handling horses and the pedigree are screaming that the horse isn't in the right spot. One negative pattern I have noticed is that horses that "will eventually" be very good often get bet in their debuts despite the fact that they aren't well meant on that day. It's sort of like the "ability of the horse" leaks out and everyone knows he's got talent, but they forget to ask themselves if it can win at that distance, first time out etc...

[cj]

I completely ignore 1st time starters in maiden claiming races. Of course a few of them win, but they are terrible bets in the long run. I probably cut the takeout at least 5 or 6% by ignoring them.

[Murph]

This particular race is going to be extremely difficult to handicap.

The 5, 6 and 7 are top pace rated and all three are making their second start off the drop in class to MCL. The first time drop does not appear to have improved their chances to win. The top trainers will not often drop a maiden runner in class for no reason. I will downgrade their win chances in this field.

#4 is a pace rated contender who presents the best speed figure from his first start. He is returning to the same claiming level for this race. An improved performance here puts him on top today. He was able to just hold off #7 in their last race 41 days ago. A positive contender is the #4

#2 shows a competetive figure with this field yet with only a single second place finish and the recent misfortunes of Jack Van Berg I will not consider him for the win.

#3 returns from his first race at the same class level with a speed figure that is a few lenghts slower that the top competition in this field. Trained by Bob Baffert, he is similar to the first group I mentioned. Not a win contender, IMO.

#9 is the most interesting FTS in the field. He is 10 - 1 on the morning line and is being sent by strong connections overall. He is partially owned and trained by James Kasparoff. Thorostats (http://www.thorostats.com) connections statistics list him as 32% W/P at Santa Anita over the past year. When Kasparoff puts David Flores up we show them to be 100% W/P for the same period. This is the first try for him with Mr. Harmon as a partner in ownership.

The last 2 ranked runners are #1 and #8. They have a ML of 20-1 and 30-1 respectively. I will toss both of these from consideration by the trainer stats.

To finish, it looks like a win wager on the #9 and the #4 would offer a fine chance to cash on this race. Suggested exacta and trifecta tickets would be 4,9 / 5,6,7 and 4,9 / 5,6,7 / 4,5,6,7,9.

Please note that I handicapped this race using only the thorostats selection information. No workout or breeding info was considered in making these selections.

Good luck to you in this contentious race, SMtW.

Murph

[Show Me the Wire]

classhandicapper:

So generally, you do not play FTS to win (except a race full of FTS)?

cj:

How about MSW (straight maidens), do you play FTS?

[BIG RED]

This particular race is going to be extremely difficult to handicap.

The 5, 6 and 7 are top pace rated and all three are making their second start off the drop in class to MCL. The first time drop does not appear to have improved their chances to win. The top trainers will not often drop a maiden runner in class for no reason. I will downgrade their win chances in this field.

#4 is a pace rated contender who presents the best speed figure from his first start. He is returning to the same claiming level for this race. An improved performance here puts him on top today. He was able to just hold off #7 in their last race 41 days ago. A positive contender is the #4

#2 shows a competetive figure with this field yet with only a single second place finish and the recent misfortunes of Jack Van Berg I will not consider him for the win.

#3 returns from his first race at the same class level with a speed figure that is a few lenghts slower that the top competition in this field. Trained by Bob Baffert, he is similar to the first group I mentioned. Not a win contender, IMO.

#9 is the most interesting FTS in the field. He is 10 - 1 on the morning line and is being sent by strong connections overall. He is partially owned and trained by James Kasparoff. Thorostats (http://www.thorostats.com) connections statistics list him as 32% W/P at Santa Anita over the past year. When Kasparoff puts David Flores up we show them to be 100% W/P for the same period. This is the first try for him with Mr. Harmon as a partner in ownership.

The last 2 ranked runners are #1 and #8. They have a ML of 20-1 and 30-1 respectively. I will toss both of these from consideration by the trainer stats.

To finish, it looks like a win wager on the #9 and the #4 would offer a fine chance to cash on this race. Suggested exacta and trifecta tickets would be 4,9 / 5,6,7 and 4,9 / 5,6,7 / 4,5,6,7,9.

Please note that I handicapped this race using only the thorostats selection information. No workout or breeding info was considered in making these selections.

Good luck to you in this contentious race, SMtW.

Murph

This is the stuff I would love to see in the Maiden Busters Contest. A breakdown of the race in the bettors eyes. Veterans and newcomers can learn!

[cj]

Rarely will I will play a first time starter, but I do factor them in when considering if a horse I may like is worth a play. Not so with maiden claimers.

I am playing Penn tonight. This race was a great example.


1 Sunnys Prize 9-5 S 42/1 50 46 53 42 29
2 Peaceful Tomorrows 20-1 NA 33/6 -15 -9 13 12 27
3 Diamond Halo 20-1 NA 33/3 : -5 -33
4 My Happines 7-2 1st na/0
5 A Jet's Gone West 12-1 NA 44/3 20 : 38 28 33 2
6 Mark Me In 6-1 NA 42/3 33 : X 26 21 23
7 Strawberry Sugar 8-1 E 33/5 : 17 28 24 | 38
8 Callmefoxy 3-1 NA 21/1 13

classhandicapper can tell you I rely heavily on the first black number in bold in maiden claiming races. It is an early speed rating, and is pretty much all that I look at for these types.

The 4 was the first time starter I ignored. He was 7-2 ML, and went off at 5 to 1 or so I think.

The 5 had the top (44) slightly ahead of the 1 and 6 and was 7 to 1. If I worried about 1st timers, I might have missed out on the winner at $17+ and the $100+ exacta, or at least bet less on the winning combo.

In MSW races, I have a pretty good idea what it takes to win figure wise on most circuits. With maiden claimers, they are crapshoots, and field strength can vary wildly. I just play the ones that have run and let the chips fall where they may.

[cj]

This is the stuff I would love to see in the Maiden Busters Contest. A breakdown of the race in the bettors eyes. Veterans and newcomers can learn!

I honestly would go crazy if I tried to analzye maiden claimers in that type detail. These are by far the easiest races in the world to handicap and bet.

[BIG RED]

I wouldn't expect someone to analyze all the races they play, but if you come up with something you like, and then explain, it helps all involved. We all agree mdns are tuff, and even some seasonned cappers pass them, but the explanations by some may give them some insight. It's not neccesary, but most welcomed Craig. I look at just about two things, early speed on past runners and workout patterns, that's about it. I could throw in drops, T&J, pedigree ect., but that comes after.
(I'm playing penn right now also, hitting the chalky x's)

[Show Me the Wire]

Please do not take this as arrogance. I do not think the race is too contentious. Like you I easily dismissed runners 6 and 7 for the reasons you stated. I agree that 8 is the least of the experienced runners.

#4. Do not like the 4 too big off a drop off a decent performance against better. Saddler is no dummy, should have gotten another chance at least somewhere in the middle.

#2. Do not like, should have won Nov. 26. Won't improve today.

#3. Can improve in second start, especially Court retains ride.

#5. Can't dismiss Gaines horse missed at 50k, belongs here with Espinoza and he doesn't have to improve last race wins this from the experienced horses.

To me the contenders from the experienced horses are the 3 can improve and the 5 no improvement needed.

Question marks are the FTS. #9 looks like a decent work tab and is most likely well meant, and #1 is an unknown commodity all the way around.

Thus the crux of the matter if you need to limit your multi-race exotic ticket is the correct play always not to use the unknown commodities (FTS) in this type of race"

Cj says don't use the FTS for the win, if I read his post correctly.

[Murph]

I added the race overview as an example of how I would look at that particular race. If this was helpful to you, that was my intention.

You must make the wager as YOU see the race unfold.

With that being said, you are probably better served to follow CJ's advice.
It is entirely possible that I am crazy for handicapping in this manner.

Murph

[Tom]

FTS in Maiden claimers -

NH - 19,409
NW - 1,535
W% - 7.9%

ROI - 0.71


All tracks, May 2005 - December 2006

[Show Me the Wire]

I added the race overview as an example of how I would look at that particular race. If this was helpful to you, that was my intention.

You must make the wager as YOU see the race unfold.

With that being said, you are probably better served to follow CJ's advice.
It is entirely possible that I am crazy for handicapping in this manner.

Murph

Who said you were crazy? Your input was warranted and earlier you said more than likely you would not play a FTS.

Remember my original question related to FTS and there ability to win against experienced fields. I was asking how people that play maiden races deal with unknown commodities and not the known.

And I appreciate your input, as I appreciate everyone elses.

[Show Me the Wire]

FTS in Maiden claimers -

NH - 19,409
NW - 1,535
W% - 7.9%

ROI - 0.71


All tracks, May 2005 - December 2006

Thank you Tom.

[cj]

You aren't crazy. I play lots of tracks for volume, so time is money. Thus, when I find an extreme negative angle, I go with it to save time. If I were just playing one or two circuits, I might go deeper.

[Show Me the Wire]

BIG Red:

Good practice for your Maiden Busters II contest. Where is your analysis and picks.

Since Murph and I have handicapped the race how about other posters throwing in their two cents.

[cj]

(I'm playing penn right now also, hitting the chalky x's)

Can you believe there was a bridge jumper in a bottom maiden claimer at Penn in the 7th?

5 Lil Red Rendezvous Jorge Tipa 59.60 19.60 59.60
1 Run M Run Kyriakos Triantafyllou 4.60 13.00
2 Lovely Linda Legg Rely Carpio 72.20

[cj]

BIG Red:

Good practice for your Maiden Busters II contest. Where is your analysis and picks.

Since Murph and I have handicapped the race how about other posters throwing in their two cents.

I will in the morning once I get home. It will be short, but hopefully effective.:)

[bigmack]

Can you believe there was a bridge jumper in a bottom maiden claimer at Penn in the 7th?

5 Lil Red Rendezvous Jorge Tipa 59.60 19.60 59.60
1 Run M Run Kyriakos Triantafyllou 4.60 13.00
2 Lovely Linda Legg Rely Carpio 72.20
Get a load of the Ex & T payouts with pools
$2 Exacta $224.80 5-1 $31,597
$2 Trifecta $1,647.60 5-1-2 $43,968

[Show Me the Wire]

Any FTS in the race? :)

[bigmack]

Any FTS in the race? :)
Negatatory. Fav1 ran 7 prev. Record of 0-0-2
Lost last by 10
Lost last three by 38

-38

20K to show & one large aspirin.

Know what the winner was? 0 for 77

[Murph]

You aren't crazy. I play lots of tracks for volume, so time is money. Thus, when I find an extreme negative angle, I go with it to save time. If I were just playing one or two circuits, I might go deeper.

Your method is entirely supported by the facts below.


FTS in Maiden claimers -

NH - 19,409
NW - 1,535
W% - 7.9%

ROI - 0.71


All tracks, May 2005 - December 2006
Both points are well taken and anyone betting on these mcl races should be made aware of the fact. Your brevity is also noted, Tom. This race didn't deserve a book on it.

Hopefully, I have pointed to a well spotted entry that has a greater chance to win than the dismal odds project. I have also selected two horses to win at odds I would expect to cover a flat $2 wager on each.

We'll see what happens.

Murph

[dylbert]

I couldn't believe chart -- EIGHT YEAR OLD MAIDEN. Guess persistance does payoff in 78th start.

I have seen this bridge jumper scenario twice in past year. Princess Rooney @ Calder when Dubai Escapade missed board. I haven't ever cashed betting against bridge jumper.

But back to this race... BJ in Mdn 5000 -- someone had much more money than good sense to make that bet. Roulette wheel -- red or black -- would probably yield better results!

[Tee]

Since Murph and I have handicapped the race how about other posters throwing in their two cents.

Two cents worth is all I have this late.

The five horse may lay over this field in a big way. I'm thinking he'll be way too short of a price & with some others perhaps pressuring early, a speed and fade may be in the works.

The Baffert entry was off slow last out. What happens if he breaks clean today? Does he get dueled into submission? Don't know if I'd go with him at a somewhat short price either.

Why not Mr Bond? First off the claim for Canani. Julio is having a pretty good start to the Santa Anita meeting. We have positive jock change imo that clicks well with the trainer & may be more patient with in his ride. Works look good & are consistently spaced for the last two months. We might be looking at a totally different racehorse that what has been seen in three previous starts.

I'd even give the 2 horse a look. He's not stuck outside today. A repeat performance of his race two back puts him in the mix.

Personally I like the 2nd race a whole bunch better. :)

[Tee]

I wouldn't be too quick to dismiss the chances of the 4 horse Laurolympio, if you can ignore the 0/17 down two class stats for Sadler. For that matter throw in the 7 horse Rival Islands who comes out of the same race. That one was first out after a two month break, drew the 10 hole in a field of 11, race wide the whole way to finish dead last.

Three horses have come out of that race to win. Sarand Star won a MSW event at Hollywood Dec 18th going 6 1/2 at odds of 9/2. Rockinstomper won a $75K Maiden Claimer going a mile at Santa Anita as the 2/1 favorite Jan 4th. I believe Warrensgildedtime won for a tag of $40K(not 100% sure) going 5 1/2 Dec 15th @ Hollywood at odds of just under 7/2.

The more I look, the more I think this race isn't that cut and dried & there are many options one could go with. Now that ensures that the fav wins off by many lengths. :D

Will see what comes later this afternoon.

[BIG RED]

BIG Red:

Good practice for your Maiden Busters II contest. Where is your analysis and picks.

Since Murph and I have handicapped the race how about other posters throwing in their two cents.

I just seen this at 5am. I will try later , have Drs. in am, but should have the form before. Will have plenty of time before the race................now could you please just give me the correct order of the P6 :)

[cj]

The 5 looks like the obvious horse, but will too short to bet and is coming off a career worst race. Mabye it was the fake dirt, maybe not, but I wouldn't take a short price.


The only horse that interests me is the 7. He took a lot of action first time out, but raced wide behind a moderate pace in a fast MSW race. Second out, the horse was 3-4 wide the whole way while up close against a strong anti-speed bias on the cushion track.

This horse is 12-1 morning line, and will probably be worth a bet.

I have no interest in any other horse in the field.

[classhandicapper]

classhandicapper:

So generally, you do not play FTS to win (except a race full of FTS)?



Almost never. I think I bet 4-5 FTS in all of 2006. All were trained by a trainer that does very well with FTS, has a positive ROI in the situation, and was spotted in a good field for a FTS.

If I am convinced that a particular FTS is very live, I'll just pass the race unless I have "great value" on someone else. I don't think I can evaluate the proper odds as well when other people have trained, ridden, or seen the horse work in company and I haven't.

When the field is full of FTS, I usually have lunch. ;)

[classhandicapper]

I wouldn't go near the 5th at SA with a 10 foot pole.

The #5 is likely to be a solid favorite and probably deserves to be, but I wouldn't take a short price unless I was 100% certain that his last race (not particularly good off the dropdown) was because of the surface or layoff and not because he's on the decline.

The #3 and #4 are both 2ndTS and either or both could move forward. The additional problem is that we really don't know how good they are to begin with because their first starts were on another surface.

The #6 is a claim by a trainer that has been going especially welll lately and has a decent record with claims.

The #9 is a FTS that is working well for a guy with no record with FTS.

The #2 has been improving, but that might be because of the surface.

These are all complications that make coming up with a decent value line very difficult.

Then you still have to deal with horses like the #7 that is a lot better than he looks.

[BIG RED]

I don't have my trusty DRF, they were sold out, but did get some PPs.

No one mentioned the Conditions? Straight up Mdncl, 3yr, and no wieght allowances. All even

#1 - Toss, nothing appealing to me

#2 - A one level drop (but from state), beat 1/2 the field, showed some good early speed last out, But not much exercise. Own/Brdr tie

#3 - 5F bullet WO, beat 1/2 the field, and was 'off slow' last race, they sometimes come to life next out. Been working enough, Baffert trnr, Own/Brdr tie, 2nd lifetime race and 3rd m/l choice. Contender

#4 - Big drop but trnr not good with these types,Own/Brdr tie, good long works but spaced out to much, beat 1/2 the field with a drop in class this race, slight + jocky switch and 2nd m/l choice. Contender

#5 - Best early speed shown of the race, Good jock stays aboard, class drop, 2nd start after layoff, hot trnr w/good jock, fast WOs, didn't show much in cheaper in Fla. faded 4 lgths in stretch as fave. The one to beat

#6 - Positive jocky switch, good works and WO pattern, shows early speed, beat 1/2 the field, hot trnr, poor speed, bad form cycle, claimed and put up in class in a mdn?.

#7 - Toss, looks like a drop for a reason

#8 - Toss

#9 - Sharp workouts, I may be wrong but has highest selling price? (can't read what I have)Don't know the trnr, but trnr and jock are good combo, has good sire 1st out

I think the 5 is the horse to beat, BUT, I hate that loss of lengths in the stretch. He isn't worth a wager at his odds. I'm not crazy about the two FTS, I wish I was, I then would bet against the 5. If I had to take one, 10-1 on the 9 looks good.. The 4 looks decent, but he's going to be short too. I'll pass, and I'll check out the earlier mdn race :cool:

[Show Me the Wire]

If you want to play in the multi-win exotic pools, you can't pass. Usually, in the past I would have passed such a race and that was the genesis over my question regarding FTS.

[BIG RED]

If you want to play in the multi-win exotic pools, you can't pass. Usually, in the past I would have passed such a race and that was the genesis over my question regarding FTS.

If you mean P3's and such, this race I would have to spread out on and look elsewhere for a key or two horse race.

[Show Me the Wire]

If you mean P3's and such, this race I would have to spread out on and look elsewhere for a key or two horse race.

This seems to be a typical type of race always present in the pick 6 or the $200k + pick 4. If you think this is a spread race look at the 8th the final leg of both the pick 6 and pick 4.

Not knocking the comment about spreading. Purpose of starting this thread, elicit comments if it is wiser to spread with the experienced horses in a weak field rather than with unknown commodities.

[Murph]

I think it is a wait and see situation with the #4 horse and his off odds.

There is no telling how the wagering will play. I have already recieved some interesting feedback when I publicly inquired about watching the odds during wagering when considering maiden races.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=345566#post345566

You can get to the meat of those comments from the bottom of that thread.

For this particular race we are likely getting the best advice from classhandicapper when he recommends a no bet on this contest.

Murph

[cj]

In P3s, and ESPECIALLY in SoCal, spreading is probably not a good idea. If you spread in races the public is likely to spread, like this one, you have no advantage.

[bigmack]

SA R5: Agree with Tee that it's not really a good representation of FTS

The 5 looks strong as he doesn't back-up once he gets rolling. The Canani claim needs to be running 4.5 to have any shot. FTS 'Holy' gets the top pedigree for this distance though sub-par works are lackluster. They've at least been working the 9 from the gate though don't see much chance there either.

All in all, the 5 looks chalky & bonafide

[BIG RED]

This seems to be a typical type of race always present in the pick 6 or the $200k + pick 4. If you think this is a spread race look at the 8th the final leg of both the pick 6 and pick 4.

Not knocking the comment about spreading. Purpose of starting this thread, elicit comments if it is wiser to spread with the experienced horses in a weak field rather than with unknown commodities.

Maybe, but the 7th won't cost much, and I think after scratches, the 8th won't either? I already looked at Aqu P6 today, good luck! 4 mdn races. I'm not a P6 player anyway, so not to get of mdns, I may just be playing that last race. Wait and see mode

[classhandicapper]

If you want to play in the multi-win exotic pools, you can't pass. Usually, in the past I would have passed such a race and that was the genesis over my question regarding FTS.

This is why I am not very active in multi-race bets either.

By playing multi-race exotics all you are doing is bucking a higher take unless you bring something to the table in terms of value in a couple of the races (or there is a big carryover). Often, the major attraction of multi-race bets is making a big score, but that doesn't cut it for me. I want to have value oriented opinions that can compound into added value.

[Show Me the Wire]

The #4 Laurolympio is a definite toss. 3 next out winners from his FTS maiden race on 11/30. 2 of the 3 finished behind Laurolympio. The 4th place horse won at 8 panels in MCL 80-75k, Rockinstomper and another Sarland won a State restricted MSW at 6 panels. The other horse I don't have the info.

Big negative drop on this one, especially coming out of a arguable key race.

[bigmack]

Races with FTS galore 1/10. Pick a winner from one

2ND @ AQU
5TH @ AQU
7TH @ LRL
3RD @ TP
8TH @ SA


The Blasi entry in the 2nd @ AQU has been working well with M/L of 6

#12 in the 7th @ LRL holds some interest for me with pedigree & works M/L 10

Will go short but #11 in the 9th @ TP

[bigmack]

The Blasi entry in the 2nd @ AQU has been working well with M/L of 6
Wins by 4. $10.40

[Show Me the Wire]

Wins by 4. $10.40


kudos to you :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[BIG RED]

In HINDSIGHT, the #4 just won the 2nd and pd $30. 2nd race in life, ran evenly, off slowly , type that Tee and myself have mentioned, beat 1/2 field last out, bet fairly good last out in a mdn, and has a very good work pattern with all long works. Did I bet him to win, no. I bet the #5, whom he beat at the wire

[BIG RED]

The 5th is coming up / with NO scratches.

[bigmack]

The only horse that interests me is the 7. He took a lot of action first time out, but raced wide behind a moderate pace in a fast MSW race. Second out, the horse was 3-4 wide the whole way while up close against a strong anti-speed bias on the cushion track.
Outstanding call. $31.6

[BIG RED]

Yes cj, you just labelled one. Tee and class also was looking at the 7, like some of us agreed, good race to stay away from, unless you have cj with you :ThmbUp:

[cj]

Don't mess with me in maiden races. They are putting my son through college. ;)

[classhandicapper]

That horse paid over 20-1 at the xchange.

[bigmack]

1

[cj]

That horse paid over 20-1 at the xchange.

The question is how much was available though? If I'm betting, I don't want to be cruising around for $15 here and $20 there.

[classhandicapper]

As you can see, there was $180 available at post time and there was probably plenty matched at a similar price previously (maybe even higher). Also, I have no problem at all taking $30, $40 etc.. at the exchange and putting the rest through Pinnacle if that's what is available to maximize my return. Been doing it for months now.

[cj]

I wasn't sure how to read that chart. I've signed up and have some funding, just need to get used to how it works.

[Tee]

Don't mess with me in maiden races. They are putting my son through college. ;)

Tough choice eh old buddy - 2/1 or 14/1 on the win end. :)

Have to give you props for pickin and stickin with one selection that just happened to be a near 15/1 winner.

Question is did u even think of diving into the trifecta pool?

How bout some q-school money?

No, I don't want to use my own, that's what sponsors r for. ;)

[cj]

I don't play too many tris, but when I do, it is a race where I play few combinations. I would have had to go deep in the 2/3 slots there, and would have put the 7 second as well.

You move away from Wyoming to a warm weather locale and maybe we'll talk sponsor deals! Actually, you need to talk to that guy that knows six multi-millionaires.

[Tee]

I don't play too many tris, but when I do, it is a race where I play few combinations. I would have had to go deep in the 2/3 slots there, and would have put the 7 second as well.

You move away from Wyoming to a warm weather locale and maybe we'll talk sponsor deals! Actually, you need to talk to that guy that knows six multi-millionaires.

When you get back to the states I might just be due south of ya.

A good friend of mine that you knew from the golf course at Warren is currently living in Houston.

Oh yeah I almost forgot,

Anyone want to buy a town-home?

[classhandicapper]

I wasn't sure how to read that chart. I've signed up and have some funding, just need to get used to how it works.

I would suggest putting in a few $1 bets tomorrow at AQU just until you get comfortable reading the screen and seeing how odds can move a bit and force you to retype what you want quickly. I misclicked 2 times the first day for $1 bets when I was getting my feet wet. After a few races it's a snap.

[cj]

I know who you mean. Certainly a hotbed for golf, and you have Retama and Sam Houston as well!

[Tee]

I know who you mean. Certainly a hotbed for golf, and you have Retama and Sam Houston as well!

Have to go somewhere else then, I wouldn't want that temptation of playing the ponies taking time away from the golf. :)

[cj]

I have nothing here. Too many firsters, and no real opinions of value on any of the horses.

[Tee]

I have nothing here. Too many firsters, and no real opinions of value on any of the horses.

I didn't really have anything either, thought I past posted & hence deleted the losing post. :D

Fig horse won eh?

[cj]

Yes, but the price was marginal given the small edge I had the horse with, so I don't mind passing.

[Show Me the Wire]

Good call cj,

Just walked in and had to add my congrats. Didn't use him though in my ticket.

[Murph]

Sharp call on the winner, CJ.

The end result shows that it pays to follow your advice and it suks to be me.
I thought I might still have a chance and then they came to the qtr. pole.

Interesting excercise, thanks for everyones comments on the issue in
question for this race.

Murph

[cj]

Thanks! Don't be so hard on yourself. It is only one race. You have to have confidence in your own opinions in this game and bet them accordingly.

[bigmack]

The 5, 6 and 7 are top pace rated and all three are making their second start off the drop in class to MCL. The first time drop does not appear to have improved their chances to win. The top trainers will not often drop a maiden runner in class for no reason. I will downgrade their win chances in this field.
That's not exactly taking a stance there Murph by saying you've downgraded the win chance of the 7.
I was not embarrased by having them both in the money and my opinion happened to agree with others who demonstrated that both selections were deemed to be worth at least $32,000 to someone.
None of the observers considered that was worth commenting on, it appears.
Two horses were claimed out the race. Why would any 'observer' feel that it was worth commenting on? You liked two horses neither of which won the race and they were both claimed. Nice work Murph!!!

[Murph]

That's not exactly taking a stance there Murph by saying you've downgraded the win chance of the 7. I know man.
I couldn't seperate the contenders. They all had the same speed figures that were kind of low. Thorostats had 88 for the #4 from his first race at same class and 87s for the contenders who were all dropping in class.

Two horses were claimed out the race. Why would any 'observer' feel that it was worth commenting on? You liked two horses neither of which won the race and they were both claimed. Nice work Murph!!! I like it when these collective efforts produce a good payoff. I think that's what is most attractive about playing these maiden runners. We've each made some excellent points about playing them properly along the way.

FTS in mdn clmr is one of the worst win bets in racing.
DON'T BET THEM TO WIN!
Good speed figures work well in maidens.
Good pace figures helped seperate the #7 as a contender.
When you can identify a contentious race, taking a stance with longer odds may yield larger rewards than than their true chances indicate.

I believe that maidens offer handicappers a greater chance of making these type of scores. They let them run and the chips fall where they may. When you use your figures they can point you to nice prices against class droppers.

My use of the nine was based on the trainers limited record. I considered it a positive early trend. The claim may indicate that someone else might think so too. His name is James M. Kasperoff and I'll tab him in my trainer watch.

We'll all meet again over in the mdn contest and have some more fun with them. I hope everyone in this thread is able to at least make a few plays as schedules will allow.

Murph

[Fastracehorse]

I completely ignore 1st time starters in maiden claiming races. Of course a few of them win, but they are terrible bets in the long run. I probably cut the takeout at least 5 or 6% by ignoring them.

Many of my best scores occur in the Mdn claiming ranks.

I just hit a $50-plus horse at GP. This horse also had bullets on his tab - but I liked it on looks.

My best hit in 2006 was using a Bill Mott firster in the first leg of an exotic.

U can see trainers make manouvers within these ranks to try and set-up nice scores.

Sometimes Mdn claiming firster winners can be seen as clear as day - there are alot of evidences pointing towards them in certain situations.

fffastt

[the little guy]

Many of my best scores occur in the Mdn claiming ranks.

I just hit a $50-plus horse at GP. This horse also had bullets on his tab - but I liked it on looks.

My best hit in 2006 was using a Bill Mott firster in the first leg of an exotic.

U can see trainers make manouvers within these ranks to try and set-up nice scores.

Sometimes Mdn claiming firster winners can be seen as clear as day - there are alot of evidences pointing towards them in certain situations.

fffastt


I had all those horses too!!!

I tried to tell that idiot CJ but he's just stubborn.

[cj]

Sometimes Mdn claiming firster winners can be seen as clear as day - there are alot of evidences pointing towards them in certain situations.

fffastt

Could you please be so kind as to point one of those out BEFORE the race so I can learn?

[PriceAnProbability]

Could you please be so kind as to point one of those out BEFORE the race so I can learn?

If he told you, he'd kill his AND YOUR profit. And mine.

Could you please tell us your pace figure formula?

[Fastracehorse]

Could you please be so kind as to point one of those out BEFORE the race so I can learn?

Lightly prepped horses with a fast work - but doesn't have to have a fast work - especially a fast gate work.

If the horse sold for 50 k at a sale and is entered for a 50 k Mdn - and has good prepping it should be looked at as dangerous. Makes good business sense right??

Looks - or physicality is a primary factor. A horse can look cranked.

Jockey - why is this jock on this horse??

Trainer: Has been hot so he wants to keep it going with an aggressive spotting in the Mdn claiming ranks.

fffastt

[cj]

If he told you, he'd kill his AND YOUR profit. And mine.

Could you please tell us your pace figure formula?

Your act is growing tired. I gave out a horse. It won, and to my knowledge didn't sway anyone to rush to the windows because I selected the horse.

Fast posted some first time MCL winners in response to me saying I ignore them. I could find a big list of big priced winners, but it doesn't change that they are poor bets overall. If you can identify them before the race, great, but posting a list of ones that have already won does nothing to sway me to bet them. They are already in the poor stats.

Maybe he could show a few he is going to bet and why, and lets see how they do.

[NY BRED]

a fts appearing in a md clmg should generally be avoided as if it was
a fit horse, the owner would not be willing to "give" his horse away
(exception being if the clmg tag outweighed the purchase price of the hose
and maintenance fees)


a fts running against also rans hasn't learned to lose, but also has not been exposed to
an actual race,which does make it an interesting play based upon its
breeding and trainer stats.My cardinal rule is to avoid fts running from the rail
(1 post) in sprints unless the odds are high enough to make it a potentially profitable exotic play, especially in the pick 3's/6's.


As stated earlier the md sp wt dropping into a md clmg is the most significant class drop in racing, where owners look to recoup their loss via a bet
and winning or placing in the exotics.


While these are general rules, post position, track bias, distance of race
etc all affect the decision to bet or not bet.

I love these races precisely because they are so unpredictable and allow,
at many points, incredible payoffs as against allowance or stakes races.

[Murph]

Lightly prepped horses with a fast work - but doesn't have to have a fast work - especially a fast gate work.

If the horse sold for 50 k at a sale and is entered for a 50 k Mdn - and has good prepping it should be looked at as dangerous. Makes good business sense right??

Looks - or physicality is a primary factor. A horse can look cranked.

Jockey - why is this jock on this horse??

Trainer: Has been hot so he wants to keep it going with an aggressive spotting in the Mdn claiming ranks.

fffasttThanks for your outline on this controversial play fffastt.

I'll sure as hell never post another fts mdn clmr into the PA forums. I had a 30-1 winner on my fts mdn clm spot today as a matter of fact.

Closed minds are rarely conducive to a free exchange of ideas that fall outside of their comfort zones.

Murph

[cj]

Thanks for your outline on this controversial play fffastt.

I'll sure as hell never post another fts mdn clmr into the PA forums. I had a 30-1 winner on my fts mdn clm spot today as a matter of fact.

Closed minds are rarely conducive to a free exchange of ideas that fall outside of their comfort zones.

Murph

You are being ridiculous. My mind is hardly closed. If what you describe as an outline helps you, great.

I never, ever said that ALL first time starters in maiden claimers were bad bets. I said I don't bet them. I have little doubt there are people out there with the skill to separate the wheat from the chafe and make a profit betting them. Time is money, so I choose not to spend time handicapping them.

[ryesteve]

If the horse sold for 50 k at a sale and is entered for a 50 k Mdn - and has good prepping it should be looked at as dangerous. Makes good business sense right??
Why would it be good business sense to lose a horse for the same price you paid for it? Given sales tax and upkeep, I don't even think the winner's share of the purse would get you into the black.

[Fastracehorse]

Why would it be good business sense to lose a horse for the same price you paid for it? Given sales tax and upkeep, I don't even think the winner's share of the purse would get you into the black.

The sense may be in the unlikeliness that the tagged FTS will be shaken.

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

Thanks for your outline on this controversial play fffastt.

I'll sure as hell never post another fts mdn clmr into the PA forums. I had a 30-1 winner on my fts mdn clm spot today as a matter of fact.

Closed minds are rarely conducive to a free exchange of ideas that fall outside of their comfort zones.

Murph

And, they are not that much work.

Like I said earlier, U can see some nice plays crystal clear.

Many are ambiguous - I admit - but so is horse racing as a whole.

Congrats on your 30-1.

Many of my bombs come in the Mdn claiming ranks as a whole - these ranks are often great bets.

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

I actually hate droppers.

U said:"As stated earlier the md sp wt dropping into a md clmg is the most significant class drop in racing, where owners look to recoup their loss via a bet
and winning or placing in the exotics."

Often times these types are overbet and not well meant. I know U read your type of comment from DRF handicappers all the time - but I still don't like these droppers.

Yah, occasionally you will see one of these droppers win by half a track but more often than not they are collared mid-way down the lane.

The problem with horses is there is no 'go button' to push. A trainer can't just drop to get the win. The animal has to be going good to win in almost any class. That is why I prefer a + like a class hike - at least I know the barn has high expectations.

fffastt

[bellsbendboy]

The biggest drop in horse racing is the drop from allowance (1X) into conditioned claimers (nw2life).

Nice stat Tom, as usual. BBB

[Tom]

Thanks, BBB.My favs are MSW - MdClmg or your Alw - clmg restricted.

Tip - at FL, look out for Alw NW4lt down to $10,000 NW4lt - it is dyno-mite several years now.

[NY BRED]

In the scenario I discussed, the md sp wt dropping into md clmg would
not be facing any horses rising in class, unless you consider a first timer entered in a md clmg which I would treat as a negative, since, if the horse had
any shot of winning, it would be in a md sp wt.

On the other hand, if it belonged in a md clmg(per the trainer's advice)
then it would ne a "rise" in class, but that info would only be known to the
trainer or owners and odds at that point are meaningless to the public.

P.S. I only look at these md sp wt droppers when they are NOT the favorite and are
within the 3-1 to 5-1 range and entered by trainers not listed in the
top "top tiers"


as far as allowance nw 1 vs any claimer, I will always favor the claimer
as a better bet especially when the allowance horse is a "statebred"

[mudnturf]

[QUOTE=NY BRED]In the scenario I discussed, the md sp wt dropping into md clmg would
not be facing any horses rising in class, unless you consider a first timer entered in a md clmg which I would treat as a negative, since, if the horse had
any shot of winning, it would be in a md sp wt.
---------------------------------------------------------------

With all respect, I look at FTS in Mdn Clmg differently. If the bloodlines are ordinary, a betting owner and/or a betting trainer might be inclined to enter a "nice" horse whose "published works" belie the horse's ability, in a Mdn Clmg race to cash a bet......the thinking being that while he or she has a moderate chance of winning a MSW race, the probability of the horse winning a Mdn Clmg race are enhanced considerably.

[ryesteve]

The sense may be in the unlikeliness that the tagged FTS will be shaken.

fffastt
"Good business sense" means NOT taking foolish risks like that for no reason.

And once a trainer has had a horse like this run well, the chances of slipping one by next time diminish considerably.

[RXB]

FTS in Maiden claimers -

NH - 19,409
NW - 1,535
W% - 7.9%

ROI - 0.71


All tracks, May 2005 - December 2006

Tom, of that group, how many went off at odds >25/1? And what was the ROI for those big-odds horses? (I'm guessing that it's utterly dismal.)

[Fastracehorse]

Thanks, BBB.My favs are MSW - MdClmg or your Alw - clmg restricted.

Tip - at FL, look out for Alw NW4lt down to $10,000 NW4lt - it is dyno-mite several years now.

Thanx JJ I mean Tom.

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

[QUOTE=NY BRED]In the scenario I discussed, the md sp wt dropping into md clmg would
not be facing any horses rising in class, unless you consider a first timer entered in a md clmg which I would treat as a negative, since, if the horse had
any shot of winning, it would be in a md sp wt.
---------------------------------------------------------------

With all respect, I look at FTS in Mdn Clmg differently. If the bloodlines are ordinary, a betting owner and/or a betting trainer might be inclined to enter a "nice" horse whose "published works" belie the horse's ability, in a Mdn Clmg race to cash a bet......the thinking being that while he or she has a moderate chance of winning a MSW race, the probability of the horse winning a Mdn Clmg race are enhanced considerably.

U've underlined what I've been trying to say eloquently - can I say that word??

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

Tom, of that group, how many went off at odds >25/1? And what was the ROI for those big-odds horses? (I'm guessing that it's utterly dismal.)

For example: What if U have a field of 12 FTS's that are all Maiden claimers??

U already have 11 losers before the race has run.

Secondly,

This is a skill game - or a game of experience if U like - and if U have the experience to identify good FTS's your ROI will be +.

Don't forget that the winning fave has a - ROI as well - at every track across N. A. - and it's win % is .33.

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

"Good business sense" means NOT taking foolish risks like that for no reason.

And once a trainer has had a horse like this run well, the chances of slipping one by next time diminish considerably.

But horses are still entered in Mdn claiming races, at their purchase price or less, everyday throughout our continent.

fffastt

[ryesteve]

But horses are still entered in Mdn claiming races, at their purchase price or less, everyday throughout our continent.

Of course they are... those are the ones that turn out to NOT be worth their original purchase price. I'm sure by the time these horses get to the races, their owners would be thrilled to get 70 cents on the dollar just to have the horse taken off their hands. But I have no idea what this has to do with the original premise that it's a smart move to risk losing a relatively GOOD horse and lose money on the deal.

[Fastracehorse]

Of course they are... those are the ones that turn out to NOT be worth their original purchase price. I'm sure by the time these horses get to the races, their owners would be thrilled to get 70 cents on the dollar just to have the horse taken off their hands. But I have no idea what this has to do with the original premise that it's a smart move to risk losing a relatively GOOD horse and lose money on the deal.

Many talented Mdn claimers leak via the claiming box everyday. That's my point.

Nobody takes them because the majority think like U: 'If this horse was entered for a tag he isn't worth his salt.' But in fact much of horse racing works on the premise: 'The illogic of logic.'

The reality is that an insignificant amount are taken. One of the problems is that if a horse is aggressively spotted (which in itself is an angle) and it wins it's Mdn - the new owner risks having to now prep vs. winners; without that Mdn purse score.

Did U know that Charismatic was a Mdn claimer before he won the Derby and the Preakness??

fffastt

[Murph]

20K mdn clm - 10 horse field of which 8 are fts. The other two have raced twice each and the #6 is an unplaced dropper. Will the #9 be a lock to win because the others are fts? We'll know in an hour or so. Have a look at the race.

Murph

[ryesteve]

Did U know that Charismatic was a Mdn claimer before he won the Derby and the Preakness??

Do you think they would have put him in for a tag if they realized at the time that he was a Derby prospect?

[Skanoochies]

A good hint at smaller tracks like my local (Hastings) is morning line and early betting on first time starters. Horses that have a ML of 8 to 1 or higher and open at 5 to 2 or lower, drift back to near their ML, then slowly work their way back down to low odds are dynamite. Not much escapes the backstretch crowd at a small venue.

[Murph]

20K mdn clm - 10 horse field of which 8 are fts. The other two have raced twice each and the #6 is an unplaced dropper. Will the #9 be a lock to win because the others are fts? We'll know in an hour or so. Have a look at the race.

Murph
8Dearest Trickski Razo E Jr 121 15.80 9.40 4.20
6Pass to Seattle Doocy T T121 7.20 3.40
9Baby Lexi Berry M C 121 2.60

[kenwoodallpromos]

20K mdn clm - 10 horse field of which 8 are fts. The other two have raced twice each and the #6 is an unplaced dropper. Will the #9 be a lock to win because the others are fts? We'll know in an hour or so. Have a look at the race.

Murph
______________
I agree:

Race #9 MCl 5 1/2f $20k

#9 Baby Lexi best record so far, rested. Win 2-1

#5 Heated Prospect decent odds based on works. 7-2

****#1 Rubysfavoritetrick (by Favorite Trick) sentimental fav breeding and rail make this filly worth a look, best works are 3f. Longshot Win 10-1

[Fastracehorse]

Do you think they would have put him in for a tag if they realized at the time that he was a Derby prospect?

No I don't.

Who knows what happened there??

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

8Dearest Trickski Razo E Jr 121 15.80 9.40 4.20
6Pass to Seattle Doocy T T121 7.20 3.40
9Baby Lexi Berry M C 121 2.60

Never, ever, whyever, bet a FTS vs. proven runners.

Just kidding.

I once read a handicapping book that said never bet longshots.

Have fun,

fffastt