dirt sprint to turf route

[cj's dad]

Just curious as to how many of you have noticed this trend. A horse running dirt sprints switches to(for the 1st time) a turf route of 1-1 1/8 mile and wires the field by the following scenario:

guns out to an early lead in the first qtr., slows the pace while maintaining a 2-3 length lead to the top of the far turn, accelerates thru the turn and opens an insurmountable down the stretch.

Normally, these horses are completely overlooked by the public and the track h'cprs and return a VERY healthy payout !

Comments or opinions welcome.

[bigmack]

Track the results today:

Tampa 5th #'s 3 & 8 / 9th #3
GP 8th #1 / 10th #2
TUP 8th #3
SA 6th #'s 3-6-8
HOU 9th #'s 4-5

[Robert Fischer]

Gp 8 fits the play pretty well. Fabled has some AWT experience and is by Tale of The Cat , and shows a decent turf work. At 9f his mediocre starts from the gate shouldn't be a issue. Will Jara take Fabled to the front?, And more importantly will #3 Fire Path and JJ Castellano also want the lead??

[Tom]

April 2005 - November 2006

Last race dirt sprint
Today's race 9 furlongs on turf

410 plays
27 wininers
Returned $613.20

Can't tell you if the turf try was the first ever - don't have that info, and can't tell you how they won (w-w, or other)

[traynor]

The key issue is how successful the jockey will be in slowing the pace enough to keep enough energy in reserve to retain the lead down the stretch. The relevance can only be determined in conjunction with other information, such as the number of pressers (or even early speed types) in the race.

In a race with a sprinter in a field of hardcore closers, it is definitely possible, if the sprinter is competently rated. In a race with a mixed field of pressers and closers, the sprinter will likely be forced to maintain a relatively brisk pace to prevent the pressers from either taking the lead or being so close at the head of the stretch that the stretch becomes an all-out battle for the lead.

The "lone early speed" concept, whether a sprinter in routes, a lone front runner in a field of closers, or a harness race (in which the drivers may be far more competent at slowing the pace than most jockeys) has to be taken in context.

The dynamics of each race are relatively unique, and it seem it would be more meaningful to consider the different possible pace scenarios rather than attempting to develop a mechanical "angle." Again, the success of a sprinter in a route is (usually) dictated by how much (if any) the jockey is able to control the pace.
Good Luck

[RBrowning]

Just curious as to how many of you have noticed this trend. A horse running dirt sprints switches to(for the 1st time) a turf route of 1-1 1/8 mile and wires the field by the following scenario:

--------------

No.

[dylbert]

Just curious as to how many of you have noticed this trend. A horse running dirt sprints switches to(for the 1st time) a turf route of 1-1 1/8 mile and wires the field by the following scenario:

guns out to an early lead in the first qtr., slows the pace while maintaining a 2-3 length lead to the top of the far turn, accelerates thru the turn and opens an insurmountable down the stretch.

Normally, these horses are completely overlooked by the public and the track h'cprs and return a VERY healthy payout !

Comments or opinions welcome.From time to time, I catch this situation with another variable, temporary rails. When rails are set at maximum (or near maximum), this works best. I have had best success with dirt-to-turf, sprint-to-route, lone frontrunner, temporary rail angle at LaD, Crc, and CD. It may work well at other tracks as well.

Another special circumstance occured at LaD this past summer. No rain! Turf course was quicker than parking lot... then it rained and that was over. Weather extremes can create turf bias just as they do on main track.

[bigmack]

Track the results today:
Tampa 9th #3

Lost a head bob @ 16-1

[cj's dad]

Track the results today:

Tampa 5th #'s 3 & 8 / 9th #3
GP 8th #1 / 10th #2
TUP 8th #3
SA 6th #'s 3-6-8
HOU 9th #'s 4-5


Tampa- 5th race 3 and 8 ran 2-3, #3 paid $15 place and the #8- $9.80 show/ tri = $2300+
Tampa 9th- 3 - $14.60 place

GP- race 8-#1 scratched
GP- race 10- #2- $14.60 place

Turf par- race 8- #3-also ran

Santa Anita-race 6- 6 & 8 ran 2-3/ 8-$7.60 place 6-$4.80 show/ tri= $1500+

Sam Houston- race yet to be run, but will do something with the 4 & 5 depending on surface conditions.

[befuddlem]

Just curious as to how many of you have noticed this trend. A horse running dirt sprints switches to(for the 1st time) a turf route of 1-1 1/8 mile and wires the field by the following scenario:

guns out to an early lead in the first qtr., slows the pace while maintaining a 2-3 length lead to the top of the far turn, accelerates thru the turn and opens an insurmountable down the stretch.

Normally, these horses are completely overlooked by the public and the track h'cprs and return a VERY healthy payout !

Comments or opinions welcome.

I played this angle years ago, but gave up on it after about 200 plays.
I might try it again to see how it fairs out though.

[andicap]

The key issue is how successful the jockey will be in slowing the pace enough to keep enough energy in reserve to retain the lead down the stretch. The relevance can only be determined in conjunction with other information, such as the number of pressers (or even early speed types) in the race.

In a race with a sprinter in a field of hardcore closers, it is definitely possible, if the sprinter is competently rated. In a race with a mixed field of pressers and closers, the sprinter will likely be forced to maintain a relatively brisk pace to prevent the pressers from either taking the lead or being so close at the head of the stretch that the stretch becomes an all-out battle for the lead.

The "lone early speed" concept, whether a sprinter in routes, a lone front runner in a field of closers, or a harness race (in which the drivers may be far more competent at slowing the pace than most jockeys) has to be taken in context.

The dynamics of each race are relatively unique, and it seem it would be more meaningful to consider the different possible pace scenarios rather than attempting to develop a mechanical "angle." Again, the success of a sprinter in a route is (usually) dictated by how much (if any) the jockey is able to control the pace.
Good Luck


First, This smacks of conventional wisdom and I would argue is not always necessarily so. Secondly (see below, the results posted above are incorrect and the angle did not do as well as advertised).

There are times -- not everyday, but it happens more than you would think -- that the presser (and even the early speed) jocks will read the Racing Form and say "that sprinter will NEVER last" 9 furlongs. Why should I tire MY horse chasing him when his breeding will kick in at the eighth pole and he'll be finished."
Then the horse goes out in 24 and 49 and by the the time the other jocks wake up its too late -- the sprinter has conserved his energy and can fly late.
So even if the sprinter is in a race with a bunch of pressers or even another "E" horse, he is still eligible to hold his speed to either win or key a generous exacta/tri.

For example at Tampa today in the 9th there were several horses capable of taking or pressing the early pace but they let Syncopation go in 24.65, 49.96 and he just got nipped at the wire.

In the 5th race the sprinters who finished 2nd and 3rd BOTH were closers and came from off the pace in a race that looked like it had less pace than the 9th.

As for the incorrect results posted here.

In GP 10 I don't know how you got the 2 to place. In my charts he finished 4th at 9-1. At SA 6th the 8 horse who placed was in a route on the dirt last time NOT a sprint.
So the angle did not as well today as advertised.

[andicap]

As an addenda/correction I might correct my statement that the Tampa 5th race figured to have a slower pace than the 9th. The two horses who went to the lead did not have the Quirin points of the others who pressed or stalked the pace.
BUT one was a sprinter stretching out and the other was a first time turfer so you never know what you'll get.

Projecting pace is always tricky but especially so in turf races where many of the horses are newbies to the surface or lightly raced fillies stretching out.

In reassessing the pace the horses in the 5th had higher early energy ratios than those in the 9th so Traynor's point stands up there. Though I still maintain in the 9th there were any number of horses who, judging by the PPs, could have gone for the lead but didnt, allowing Syncopation the easy lead.

[jacob]

I can't recently recall many sprinters switching from dirt sprints and wiring 9 furlongs ... especially Eastern tracks where the density of the Turf is greater than those of the South and West.

But, I do remember when Mack Miller would successfully used Jerry Bailey on horses in 7 furlong sprints and then switch him on the same horses, but next time going generallt 1/16 Miles ... and with a high Win percentage and a profitable ROI.

Mack Miller was probably Jerry Bailey's original turf experience mentor.


But, there aren't too trainers like Mack Millers around today.;)

Jacob

jacob@sweeptheraces.com

[BlueShoe]

Much prefer the other way around;turf route to dirt sprint.Am speaking of turf routers that set or press the early pace,perhaps tiring a bit in the stretch.Today they sprint on the dirt.Usual common sense should be applied;has performed okay on dirt in past,not outclassed,recency,etc.

[The Judge]

Just off the top of my head I would think a horse that was just a so so sprinter maybe a mid-pack horse rather then being on the lead. Would make the better bet going 9f on the turf.

[bigmack]

I've played this DSprint/TRoute several times over the years as I suspect many have. I felt inspired when the 22-1's held off the charge from behind or better yet, were so far in front that the best of kicks couldn't gobble up real estate fast enough to find vic

All in all it's not a play I seek out though print out the suspects for each day to keep an eye out for a live prospect.

Dependant on bias, front end on a TRoute means little. If the field gets fooled into let them get too far out, I'm interested.