Beyer speed figures

[cees with dees]

Once again, the most ridiculous tool in handicapping has misled unsuspecting and uneducated owners into thinking they have more than they do.
I'm speaking of the connections of Johannesburg Star.
Here is an animal that took 5 starts to break his maiden and when he did, he was loose on a golden rail, speed favoring conveyer belt and he received a speed figure off the charts.
The connections subsequently turned down $2million.
I have no problem with people that are in the game:"not for the money". But to have their hopes and dreams inflated to the point where they ludicrously think that they have not only a Derby contender, but a likely winner is really pathetic.
Are these people oblivious to this animals first four races??
Mud calks and bias have been the keys to this animal and I place no blame on Andy Beyer. I do blame those who don't take the time to research how they come up with these "adjustable" numbers. Because if they did, they wouldn't give these things one millisecond of consideration.
Like I've said, from the gambling aspect, I love them. "Fast numbers" are usually the short prices and I sometimes find myself saying:"why is this thing 4/5??? Then I look at the beyer numbers and answer my own question.
I just get so sick and tired of hearing lame excuses like:" he bounced" or he injured whatever.
Setup is usually the biggest part of the story and the reason most horses are all over the map and have good and bad races is because rarely if ever aretwo races setups the same nevermind identical. And these loosely used, widely accepted terms like "bounce" have been incorporated into an already puzzling sport.
My bottom line on bounce is; I used to run cross country in high school and those races were up and down hills for at least 10 miles.
It never took me more that 2 days to fully recover and to say a horse needs 3 weeks to a month to recover from what is usually less than a mile of rrunning is completely and totally retarded. And I guarantee these horses are in alot better shape than I was. Excluding those who suffer legitimate injuries, the rest of the poor races are due to some other factor like different distance, track condition, trainer, etc. etc. etc. This point could be argued to the moon but I've yet to have someone point out to me a horse who supposedly bounced that I couldn't give a legitimate reason for the poor effort.
Well, enough from me. have a great day and most importantly, a healthy 2007.
St. Jimmy

[classhandicapper]

I finally found someone that is more skeptical of bounce theory than I am. :lol:

[Valuist]

Cmon now, the buzzword is "react", not bounce:lol:

[cj]

It is a poor example to criticize Beyer figures. The track was biased. Most horses do run very well when advantaged by strong biases, and this horse was no different. Should he get the same figures he was getting when losing maiden races?

[rrbauer]

Johannesburg Star is entered at AQU tomorrow (Saturday) so you can bet your convictions soon.

[Greyfox]

My bottom line on bounce is; I used to run cross country in high school and those races were up and down hills for at least 10 miles.
It never took me more that 2 days to fully recover and to say a horse needs 3 weeks to a month to recover from what is usually less than a mile of rrunning is completely and totally retarded......


Neigh. Oops, I mean nay. Cee's with Dees how the memory magnifies. You may have raced 10 miles cross country, up and down hills. You may have "trained" 10 miles daily, but it seems doubtful that you were ready for a race 2 days later, and two days later, and two days later. If you were where did you hide your cape? Or alternatively, maybe we should bet on you at Aqueduct?

[1st time lasix]

First of all my friend.....you are a bit over the top. No high school cross country runner EVER ran a race of ten miles. Generally cross country races at that level are held between 2.5 and 3.9 miles. I know. Practices may vary....but races are NEVER that long in HS. The theory that some horses run in cycles is quite valid. Not all "bounce" off top grueling races....but many do. Older filly sprinters are famous for it. Taking dead aim against a favorite {perhaps with a big Beyer or two paired tops} off a possible "bounce" race is a valuable handicapping tool in a player's arsenal. It commonly shows itself when a normally good horse is relatively listless {hanging} in the stretch. The phenomenon has opened up races for a nice score for many that are aware that it is possible. Nothing works all the time and I agree that two races are never the same....but athleters peak at different times!

[cees with dees]

I still say and always will, show me a race where you think a horse bounced and I'll give you the legitimate reason.

Ernie dahlman once said to Mike Hushion and I quote: "If you ever tell me one of my horses bounced, I'll get a new trainer". And this is a person who uses the Jerry Brown sheets on a daily basis.
If you never heard the term used, you wouldn't use it either and you shouldn't because it's ridiculous. And, our cross country races WERE 10 miles at times and when I retired I was still a maiden.
Came second once.
Have fun.
St. Jimmy

[cj]

..And, our cross country races WERE 10 miles at times and when I retired I was still a maiden.
Came second once.

Well, no wonder you never had any trouble recovering.

[betovernetcapper]

Beyer was never a proponiant of the bounce theory and if memory serves devoted a chapter of his last book to oppose the notion.

[kenwoodallpromos]

You may or may not know this, but in natured 4f is a horse's natural limit for full speed running.
Can I assume that during your 10 miles you never bled through Lasix, raised your heartrate 10 times resting rate, had artifical pace required of you, been unable to express any problems you were feeling, ran on a limestone base, been pushed beyond your limits with a jockey on your back or through aches and joint pain on Bute?
I know there is a variety of external factors involved in any race, but the equine species physiology like many in the animal kingdom is set up to run only a very limited distance at full speed, like many predators.
Recovery time Does constitute a cycle, even for you! 2 days is considered average recovery time for humans whether running or weight training. A lot has to do with food intake and metabolism. You and species that are meat eaters have a much more rapid recovery time (cycle) than herbivores do. Partly due to chemical makeup of diet also. That is why artificial means of equine recovery and slowing fatique can have a negative effect. You can load carbs just prior to a run because your metabolism and processing is different than a Belmont Stakes runner's is.
My father was a lab technician and a bioanalyst, bacteriologist, and parasitologist so I learned a little bit about growing cycles.
Recently one of his studies was CO2 loading in humans, and told me about the dangers of loading that. Something about smaller oxygen to carbon dioxide ratio.
All I know about cross country running is there is often established courses and runner are not required to run on different surfaces with mud cleats and different amounts of weights. Plus I assume horses do not have the same ability to produce endorphins you do, since some of all the dope they are forced to take in may serve a similar purpose.

[delayjf]

As I recall, ( I did read that section within the past few months) Beyer was simply saying that a horses performance could not ALWAYS be explained by speed figure patterns. It's not that a horse could not regress due to an over exertion, but that the circumstances of a race could ALSO account for a bad performance.

Horses can and do react differently than humans to over exerting performances. I've never seen or heard of a human bleeding through his lungs / nose during or after a race the way a horse can.

[alysheba88]

Beyer was never a proponiant of the bounce theory and if memory serves devoted a chapter of his last book to oppose the notion.

Why let facts get in the way of a good rant

[cj]

Why let facts get in the way of a good rant

...or a bad one.

[Tom]

and I can prove it!

[formula_2002]

What is the roi on the top Beyer speed figures ?

I don't use them, simply because Bris does not include them in their data files.

Thanks
Joe M

[Nets]

Cj,

If this refers to this forum, you certainly are correct. Lots of incredibly sharp and apparently inteligent people here. Much info to be obtained. But as in most things on the internet, an underlying abrasiveness prevails. Nonetheless, I come here most days as there always seems to be more things of value than negatives. I just keep my mouth shut :)

[cj]

You should post more often. It is the internet, you get all kinds here.

My tag is a quote from Deadwood, but probably fits here. Like most places in real life and on the web, new arrivals, especially that post a lot, are going to be scrutinized. Many people have been here a long time, so new people are great. We've all heard what each other have to say already.

One thing that draws fire here is spouting bullshit. This place has a pretty good meter for that sort of thing.

[Light]

Horse Physiology:http://www.the-aps.org/press/aps/06/derby.htm

can breathe only through their noses

can only breathe in synch with their stride

have outsized spleens that release oxygen-rich red blood cells into the blood stream when they run

have hearts that can handle blood that thickens with the 50% increase in red blood cells

are the only animals, other than humans, that sweat through their skin



Horses can inhale only when their front hooves are striding outward, they exhale only when all four legs come together -- the in and out of the bellows.

Their thin legs and relatively small hooves support a much greater proportion of weight than the human foot, which is relatively larger....A human being would have to put his weight on his middle finger to duplicate the proportion of weight the horse hoof supports as it hits the ground.

[Tom]

Ditto Nets, come in , the water's fine!
Welcome to the jungle! ;)

[kenwoodallpromos]

"....A human being would have to put his weight on his middle finger to duplicate the proportion of weight the horse hoof supports as it hits the ground."
I use my middle finger when my horse pick's hoove hits the ground beyond the wire 2nd or worse!

[schweitz]

[QUOTE=Light]



Horses can inhale only when their front hooves are striding outward, they exhale only when all four legs come together -- the in and out of the bellows.

So they drop dead if standing still? ;)

[PriceAnProbability]

Cj,

If this refers to this forum, you certainly are correct. Lots of incredibly sharp and apparently inteligent people here. Much info to be obtained.

Like CJ's recipe for figures and angles?

Like my power rating method?

Like how the "value" people actually find their value horses?

Like the guy with the 120 percent profitable angle that he doesn't share?

I find we talk more about the symptoms exhibited by winning players rather than the cause of their winning, for doing that would kill the goose and make it more difficult for all of us to profit.

[kenwoodallpromos]

[QUOTE=Light]



Horses can inhale only when their front hooves are striding outward, they ****exhale only when all four legs come together -- the in and out of the bellows.

So they drop dead if standing still? ;)
Maybe when sleeping standing up they exhale only!LOL!

[Nets]

Thanks for the welcome cj and Tom. I think I will continue to "test the water" for awhile to make sure I don't sink. As for anyone giving their recipes or formulas away, that is not what I am after. However, hearing divergent thoughts on something as complicated as handicapping can only help my own meager understanding of it. The trick is to determine what points of view will work with my own and lead to some level of success. Regardless, I love the sport and reading about it here.

[cees with dees]

Hats off to Joe Parker and all of the connections of Johannesberg Star.

Colt ran tons better than I thought he was capable of and really raced well in defeat. Still, not worth anything near $2million and not even close to a possible Derby contender but I guess it's alot easier for me to be objective than two excited and realtively newcomers to this sport.
By the way, does anyone know the identity of the person or persons who offered this ridiculous amount of money????
Just curious as I have Secretariat and a Ruffian photo to sell. Hey, you never know.
St. Jimmy

[classhandicapper]

I still say and always will, show me a race where you think a horse bounced and I'll give you the legitimate reason.

Cure the Blues (and another horse whose name I can't recall) engaged in a savage race in the Gotham many years ago. IMO, neither horse was ever the same.

I do think horses with legitimate physical issues can have them aggrevated by extreme exertion. I also think occasionally a race is so hard it can cause a new injury or stress related problem.

However, typically the big ups and downs in figures we sometimes see that some people think are bounces are usually easily explained away by biases, off tracks, pace, and other aspects of trip. Many of the rest are simple mean reversions.