View Full Version : T'Bred industry 2007- my view.
kenwoodallpromos
01-02-2007, 12:43 PM
Thoroughbreds 2007: Strong business, potentially stronger legs.
As of January 1, 2007, the Thoroughbred industry is in good shape overall. From breeding to betting the bottom lin is improving; From foaling to final owner there are many caring indiviuals and improvements in technology; Some industry organizations are helping in the area of human and animal health.
The Thoroughbred as a breed overall is not weakening; Of Equibase's top 100 horses in wins for all of 2006, 80 have raced 13 or more times.
The Thoroughbred industry literally and figuratively stands on the legs of the individual racer. Studier and stronger legs means a higher quality horse going into training, a lower attrition rate resulting in a better bottom line while in racing mode, and an increasingly better life after retiring with a gold stopwatch. Healthier equine legs means a lower jockey injury rate, higher quality races, less gleaning of racers, and less dependence on medications.
Even though a high per cent of Thoroughbred racers are being asked to exercise or race year round almost daily on a track with a stone or rock base with too many drugs and often without sufficient time off, there is good news: Artificial tracks are already drastically reducing on-track injuries without hurting finances; Advances in diagnostic equipment are enabling potentially better preventitive diagnosis of leg problems; And there is a push for better analysis of medical records and circumstances of injuries. And on-track attendance overall could improve with slots, new ideas, more of positive publc relations, and even better marketing of horseracing as a modern major sport.
With continued forward thinking, the health of the inividual athlete and the industry as a whole should continue to improve.
Copyright 2007 by Ken Woodall.
Indulto
01-02-2007, 01:04 PM
Thoroughbreds 2007: Strong business, potentially stronger legs.
As of January 1, 2007, the Thoroughbred industry is in good shape overall. From breeding to betting the bottom lin is improving; From foaling to final owner there are many caring indiviuals and improvements in technology; Some industry organizations are helping in the area of human and animal health.
The Thoroughbred as a breed overall is not weakening; Of Equibase's top 100 horses in wins for all of 2006, 80 have raced 13 or more times.
The Thoroughbred industry literally and figuratively stands on the legs of the individual racer. Studier and stronger legs means a higher quality horse going into training, a lower attrition rate resulting in a better bottom line while in racing mode, and an increasingly better life after retiring with a gold stopwatch. Healthier equine legs means a lower jockey injury rate, higher quality races, less gleaning of racers, and less dependence on medications.
Even though a high per cent of Thoroughbred racers are being asked to exercise or race year round almost daily on a track with a stone or rock base with too many drugs and often without sufficient time off, there is good news: Artificial tracks are already drastically reducing on-track injuries without hurting finances; Advances in diagnostic equipment are enabling potentially better preventitive diagnosis of leg problems; And there is a push for better analysis of medical records and circumstances of injuries. And on-track attendance overall could improve with slots, new ideas, more of positive publc relations, and even better marketing of horseracing as a modern major sport.
With continued forward thinking, the health of the inividual athlete and the industry as a whole should continue to improve.
Copyright 2007 by Ken Woodall.KW,
Do you happen to have corresponding figures for the last several years?
I wonder what effect increased attendance at tracks with slots will have on on-track handle. Perhaps you could suggest what the remainder of that statement would entail?
ryesteve
01-02-2007, 01:29 PM
Of Equibase's top 100 horses in wins for all of 2006, 80 have raced 13 or more times.
Why would one rank them by number of wins? It's a pretty safe bet that in general, the ones who run the most often have a better chance of ending up with more wins. I'd much rather see trends of the avg. # of starts among all horses who won GI stakes, year over year.
I haven't seen data for 2006, but in 2005 the average number of starts per thoroughbred racehorse dropped to 6.5, which was the lowest ever. While part of this might be due to changes in trainer strategy, I'd think that if horses were capable of running more often, most trainers would be taking advantage of this because they want purse money. It's nice that you are trying to be optimistic, but it's tough to make the case that everything is fine with the breed. Others who know more than me could make the argument much better.
Jerry
kenwoodallpromos
01-02-2007, 03:15 PM
KW,
Do you happen to have corresponding figures for the last several years?
I wonder what effect increased attendance at tracks with slots will have on on-track handle. Perhaps you could suggest what the remainder of that statement would entail?
__________
Attendance- live attendance has reportedly been mixed depending on the track, but internet gaming handle has been up substantially. My point in this article was not to examine exact statistics, but to give my overall impressions as to where racing is at. Any increase in handle with slots is important regarless of what the actual attendance is.
I believe with other major sports a great deal of overall income is generated by national televion revenues, which makes it importat for racing to appeal to the at home audience. IMO set convienient scheduling is very important.
___________
The top 100 wins by horse is something I recently began looking at on Equibase; I think even if the 80 horse were all that ran as many as 13 times it would be helpful to know, since that covers vaired owners, trainers and breeding lines. Although Jockey Club stats show sine 1991 the average starts have gone down every year, laying the blame on the breed itself assumes that all horses at least from certain breeds are weakening. According to latest Jockey Club stats, about 15,000 yearling and 2 year olds were sold, and about 12,000 of thoise raced. But my opinion is that the problem lies primarily with the training regimen because that is where the biggest changes have occurred, with pressure to produce racing results of early speed and with copmpressed careers.
My understanding is that in decades past, horses were lighter, did not race in the winter so legs were givewn pasture rest, longer careers could be planned, and horses were given more of a chance to prove themselves.
My point was that looking at the industry as a whole there is positive progreeion; looking at the individual horse there is good potential to counter the constant pounding of the hoove on the traditional track with forgiving tracks and recognition of leg problems earlier.
The healthier the individual Thoroughbred racer's legs are the more money can be won longer in purses and the less excuses connections have financially to retire and breed high end horses and glean out claimers. That benefits everyone.
PriceAnProbability
01-02-2007, 07:07 PM
Thoroughbreds 2007: Strong business, potentially stronger legs.
As of January 1, 2007, the Thoroughbred industry is in good shape overall. From breeding to betting the bottom lin is improving; From foaling to final owner there are many caring indiviuals and improvements in technology; Some industry organizations are helping in the area of human and animal health.
The Thoroughbred as a breed overall is not weakening; Of Equibase's top 100 horses in wins for all of 2006, 80 have raced 13 or more times.
The Thoroughbred industry literally and figuratively stands on the legs of the individual racer. Studier and stronger legs means a higher quality horse going into training, a lower attrition rate resulting in a better bottom line while in racing mode, and an increasingly better life after retiring with a gold stopwatch. Healthier equine legs means a lower jockey injury rate, higher quality races, less gleaning of racers, and less dependence on medications.
Even though a high per cent of Thoroughbred racers are being asked to exercise or race year round almost daily on a track with a stone or rock base with too many drugs and often without sufficient time off, there is good news: Artificial tracks are already drastically reducing on-track injuries without hurting finances; Advances in diagnostic equipment are enabling potentially better preventitive diagnosis of leg problems; And there is a push for better analysis of medical records and circumstances of injuries. And on-track attendance overall could improve with slots, new ideas, more of positive publc relations, and even better marketing of horseracing as a modern major sport.
With continued forward thinking, the health of the inividual athlete and the industry as a whole should continue to improve.
Copyright 2007 by Ken Woodall.
Limits are limits, and Polytrack is just setting new limits for the abusers. Watch the breakdown rates return to normal in 5-10 years.
The real problem is these horses are bred for speed rather than size, endurance, or durability.
Kelso
01-03-2007, 12:48 AM
But my opinion is that the problem lies primarily with the training regimen because that is where the biggest changes have occurred, with pressure to produce racing results of early speed and with copmpressed careers.
My understanding is that in decades past, horses were lighter, did not race in the winter so legs were givewn pasture rest, longer careers could be planned, and horses were given more of a chance to prove themselves.
Ken,
Do you know of any authoritative studies of horse injuries grouped by trainer? I would expect state racing and animal welfare regulators to want to track something like this.
Thank you.
kenwoodallpromos
01-03-2007, 01:13 AM
Limits are limits, and Polytrack is just setting new limits for the abusers. Watch the breakdown rates return to normal in 5-10 years.
The real problem is these horses are bred for speed rather than size, endurance, or durability.
______________
"http://www.bloodhorse.com/talkinhorses/RA121906.asp" This is a Dr. Arthur interview mostly about racer health and injuries- many people including myself agree demand for (early) speed is a big factor in less durable horses- I have read one article that talks about certain sire lines that are weak, and others say early use of anabolic steroids artificially build weight and muscle for improved auction sales. I am looking for info that TBreds from birth to initial sale have worse conformation or other health problems but so far have not run across it.
Dr. Arthur seems to think trainers' lawyers will not allow real needed drug punishment, as in his answer to my stall question. So let them sue! Maybe trainers cheated less back when stalls WERE denied!!
kenwoodallpromos
01-03-2007, 01:40 AM
Ken,
Do you know of any authoritative studies of horse injuries grouped by trainer? I would expect state racing and animal welfare regulators to want to track something like this.
Thank you.
______________
"http://www.grayson-jockeyclub.org/resources/WelfareSummit.pdf"
See #5- No current or past studied I know of- only anecdotal information on specific trainers. Personally I watch for a series of workouts at high speed and then indicators of in-race leg problems from my list. Also I look for dropping of claimers to bottom level combined with compressed race schedules- and there are a great many trainers who do both with some horses.
Ther only name I have been told specifically who ************** is in SoCal- Steve Knapp. And I have seen a quote from Baffert that a (young) racer either makes it or it does not.
One problem is since no medical records follow a claimed horse, a good trainer may get a lemon that has already been completely squeezed and have no juice left, maybe with serious microfractures or other underlying leg problems that cannot be detected by trainer's ultrasound machine or feeling up the leg, and break down. Afleet Alex's Preakness stumble is a familiar example.
To my knowledge, no recoeds are kept of horses retired due to injury which would have to be done. Finger Lakes as info on some horses being retired.
kenwoodallpromos
01-03-2007, 01:49 AM
"http://fltrainerlist.proboards104.com/index.cgi?board=general"
[QUOTE=kenwoodallpromos]______________
Hello Ken:
To be exact here, Steve Knapp since 2000 has sent a horse to the gate 1,955 times and has had 29 DNF but out of those 29 DNF's only five horses have broken down. Out of those 29 horses roughly 10 of them have made it back to the races. Twenty four of those twenty nine were pulled up and vanned off the track. I would think his riders over the years knowing that he has a tendency to put unsound horses on the track will sometimes not let his horses run protecting horse and themselves from harm. A trainer like this is not a jockeys favorite to ride for. Just my take on this.
Joe
kenwoodallpromos
01-03-2007, 02:04 PM
[QUOTE=kenwoodallpromos]______________
Hello Ken:
To be exact here, Steve Knapp since 2000 has sent a horse to the gate 1,955 times and has had 29 DNF but out of those 29 DNF's only five horses have broken down. Out of those 29 horses roughly 10 of them have made it back to the races. Twenty four of those twenty nine were pulled up and vanned off the track. I would think his riders over the years knowing that he has a tendency to put unsound horses on the track will sometimes not let his horses run protecting horse and themselves from harm. A trainer like this is not a jockeys favorite to ride for. Just my take on this.
Joe
______________
"Peloso et al., 1994 Kentucky, U.S.A. 4 tracks; FMI(fatal muscoskeletal injury) 0.14%
Wilson and Robinson, 1996b U.S.A. 27 Fatal injury 0.159%
Dibbern, 1996 West Virginia, U.S.A. 2 Catastrophic injuries 0.12%
Estberg et al., 1996b California, U.S.A. 15 FMI 0.17%"
These figures are about 1 fatality in about every 600 starts. According to your info Kapp has 1 in 200. But not a big sample. And his DNF rate of about 1 in 67 is about
Robert Fischer
01-03-2007, 02:27 PM
One thing about Knapp is that he seems to focus on early speed runners. Thats a rough way to run for a horse to begin with. Whatever if any techniques used by trainers to develop more speed than natural - is going to be a stress on any infirmities a horse may have. You have a musculoskeletal system built for a certain amount of stress , and now we are attempting to increase speed...
Also if there is any truth to the theory that the breed has been developed with a bias towards raw speed vs. durability, a trainer that primarily races early speed types may happen to work with quite a few of this type.
This is not to say Knapp is , or is not careful with his horses.
kenwoodallpromos
01-03-2007, 02:28 PM
These figures are about 1 fatality in about every 600 starts.
According to your info Knapp has 1 in 200. But not a big sample. And his DNF rate of about 1 in 67 is about twice normal.
You can roughly figure 1 DNF per day (2.5-3%) or 1 fatality per week racing and in training, 2 per month in racing (based on 300 starts per week) as average. Of Course, most of those surveys were 10+ years ago, prior increasing anabolic steroid use and 9 starts per year vs 6.5 so I wonder if there was the same push for horses to reamin in training and keep producing day rates 365 days per year. Winters off meant no training money and $5-10 boarding fee instead.
I've also been wondering if there is more of an attitiude nowadays that a racer is either a stakes horse or a claimer, with less Alw's so the owner will keep trying longer with the horse before giving up on big purses?
kenwoodallpromos
01-03-2007, 02:46 PM
One thing about Knapp is that he seems to focus on early speed runners. Thats a rough way to run for a horse to begin with. Whatever if any techniques used by trainers to develop more speed than natural - is going to be a stress on any infirmities a horse may have. You have a musculoskeletal system built for a certain amount of stress , and now we are attempting to increase speed...
Also if there is any truth to the theory that the breed has been developed with a bias towards raw speed vs. durability, a trainer that primarily races early speed types may happen to work with quite a few of this type.
This is not to say Knapp is , or is not careful with his horses.
Some trainers have a higher % of claimed vs auction horses also. Tom Schell claims older (stats say many more breakdowns) and keeps them healthy.
"http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B7GW6-4DB4TBW-6&_coverDate=12%2F31%2F2003&_alid=517323146&_rdoc=1&_fmt=&_orig=search&_qd=1&_cdi=20450&_sort=d&view=c&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=212faccd26ea8043588a53aa172efb5b"
The above link is an article about the ongoing NYRA vet databse that has injury and fatality stats. Ca reported average 40 deaths per year per circuit.
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