Tired/weakened v. NTL

[DJofSD]

Part of the evaluation I'll make of each horse before even considering using the computer is to look at the probable pace scenario of the race and where each runner might fit. Obviously those that show being on or very near the lead early is the easy way to start this process.

Browsing through the PPs for the feature race at Santa Anita, the Monrovia Handicap, a Grade III event, it has a runner Bella Banissa. You don't even need to look at the E8 rating to see it is a runner that 'has a need to lead' -- all wins are from races where it wired the field.

However, there are 4 pace lines with early positions showing a lead but then losing by significant margins. The abbreviated commentary has tired, weakened, weakened, and weakened.

Question (especially for the class handicappers): how do you tell the horse genuinely tired versus a horse that just spits out the bit when it gets headed?

[Robert Fischer]

Bella Banissa is a talented horse that has to sprint from wire to wire. The horse has impressive speed and can overwhelm lesser competition. She has needed several breaks in the past to get healthy, as she is a five year old with twelve starts. 6.5f is about right for her, and her connections have her primed for a big try. She should get the lead here but will most likely face plenty of pressure. Victory Spy(who wired BB when BB was coming off of a layoff),Selvatica(wants to lead every call),Maryfield. - All will want to run sub 22/45s.
Usually that much speed pushing each other will help the later runners.

Closers
Society Hostess has tactical speed, and Gomez will have her running late.
Leparoux will have Kitty Hawk running late.
Clinet-solis


stalkers
Somethinaboutbetty will take a stalking trip.
Honey Rose
Cambicorsa
costume designer

[DJofSD]

Victor Spy is out.

I wasn't looking for selections for the race otherwise I would have posted this thread in that section.

[cj]

Hey DJ,

Needless to say, this is right up my alley.

I have to guess at the four races, but I think I see them. First, the horse shows three wins in her last 10. In those races, she led with pace figures of 94, 90, and 106, and the 106 was in a 5.5f race. She did tire, but hung on.

Her last race, a route, she set a 118 on fake dirt and packed it in. That is wicked fast. Her race on 19 August, also a route, she set a 117, and despite a huge lead, packed it in again. She seems unratable, and certainly not a router. Her bad loss on 28 September 05, she did set a reasonable sprint pace of 91, but packed it in anyway. She followed that with a 9 month layoff, so I would think something went amiss there.

The other bad race I see was when still a maiden, and again followed by a lengthy layoff of nearly a year.

So, I would guess you have a headstrong horse that simply is going as fast as she can from the bell. Every race I have in her last ten shows that she went a bigger pace figure than speed figure. This horse has very little chance routing, ever, but if left alone in a sprint she may sometimes have enough to hold off the field. She will never be finishing strong though. It isn't so much that she hates being headed, but that when that happens, she has been fighting extremely hard the whole way and has nothing left.

[dylbert]

I wasn't looking for selections for the race otherwise I would have posted this thread in that section.Did someone have a long night? LOL... Happy New Year!

[Pell Mell]

This is my opinion:

Running line- 1/1, 1/1, 6/8, 6/9= quitter

1/1, 2/1, 4/3, 6/5= tired

[DJofSD]

Thanks cj, this was what I was looking for in this thread. I'll be reviewing the PP's in light of your analysis after today's card at SAX is in the bag.

And, no, I had a very good night last night. No partying here because I consider New Years Eve amatuers night.

[DJofSD]

The 4 lines where there was a tired or weakened: 03Dec06 HOL, 19Aug06 DMR, 28Sep05 (yes, 2005), 08Aug04 (10th line).

[Robert Fischer]

Victor Spy is out.

I wasn't looking for selections for the race otherwise I would have posted this thread in that section.

You are right, my answer to your question is probably that " I look at the horse with this type of style individually, and then within the context of the race"
looking for the horses running styles, the cause of the weak finish(es), and the competition today.

I went ahead with the example, because I had taken time to look at this horse in a few races.

[Robert Fischer]

Society Hostess
Kitty Hawk
Clinet
Somethinaboutbetty