Handicapping Resolutions For 2007.

[44PACE]

First Give yourself a one time forgiveness, its a new year and a new fresh start. Everyone has zero losses for 2007. Before venturing out to your local track or betting outlet take some time and examine why 2006 fell short in terms of your expectations. What areas showed great promise and what did not pan out.The fastest way to profitability is making changes to your game. Horse racing will never change to making you a winner its up to you to change to meet what horse racing requires.

I did this 4 years ago, I quit the exotics ( note* for ME it didn't work) quit going to the track without a plan,quit listening to friends and who they liked etc. etc., it worked.Paying attention to what works and what does not makes all the difference. Too many people play this game the same year after year expecting different results which never come, it is only when you venture into new approaches that you make new discoveries.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Mine is to get better at telling when a horse is not ready to race energy-wise. Too many of mine finish too far back at times.

[how cliche]

My resolutions so far...

1. No more action bets.

2. If runners go off at less than a 100% overlays against my opinion, pass on them.

3. No more bets on runners I think have less than a 20% chance of winning, regardless of price.

4. Start the year with a bankroll and play off it using the current money management plan.(Never less than 1% never more than 5%. The base 1% increases as I earn, base 1% stagnates but does not decrease as losses occur.

5. If cards are barren, even on weekends, stay away.

6. If I manage to double my initial bankroll. Begin again from the original bankroll plus 25%.

7. Shy away from exotics except as a precautionary measure(back wheels & doubles)

8. Only wages are to be spent. All monies earned from horse racing are to be saved Until the big day comes(the day I quit my job).

9. Avoid contests and out of state racing interests. Concentrate on California racing only. Avoid distractions. Do not overly fixate on the triple crown, the breeders' cup, the arlington million, or any other industry standard type race any more than an ordinary race at Bay Meadows or Santa Anita.

10. By years' end earn at least 400% my starting bankroll(monetary).

11. Update ledger records after every betting day, not once a week.

12. Recognize mistakes before they happen, such as wagering early in NoCal with more than 1mtp & not anticipating the sudden odds dips that are common at BM or GGF.

13. Take losses more in stride.

14. Research an hour a day, 5 days a week with purpose. Seek out new avenues of research. Find new clippings to prove more cases.

15. Work on improving analysis of form, pace and speed. It is the weak link right now. Improve it.

16. Have fun. The challenge is immense, but undeniably interesting.

[jetermvpbaby]

Cliche, love your post. If you don't mind, i'm going to comment on some of your resolutions.

I love 'action bets' and i'll continue to make them. I feel that action bets 'keep my head in the game' sort of speak. These smaller bets force me to handicap every race, not to get lazy. If i get it in my head that i'm skipping a race with 20 mins to post, i don't believe thats a good way to do things. Handicap right up to the very end. If you dont find anything, skip. But, handicap as if you might bet. It keeps you sharp and focused. At least it does for me.

#3. Bets on runners that have less than 20 pct.
This 'rule' sort of contradicts rule number 13. Ahering to rule 3, you are in a way saying that you can't handle defeat very well. I'd suggest to really work harder at rule 13 and keep betting 20-1 shots you think have an 8 pct chance to win.

#9 avoiding contests. I agree with this.

As far as overly fixating on the triple crown and BC, i'd say that you should really follow racing from around the usa and really 'gear up' for the big days. Those 'big days' are life changers. If you become a great handicapper, use the big days to make a life changing score. Betting a 6 horse field at Bay Meadows w Russel baze at 3-5 and 3 of the 6 horses are trained by dorf isn't going to get you to quit your job. Following the races from around the country and making a monster score on BC day will.

#5 barren cards.
If you are going to be a professional someday, you have to follow every race, every card every nook and cranny. There is always opportunity on every card. Don't worry about some cards being 'bad' littered with 4k claimers and nonsense. Money is just as green regardless if its a 4k claimer or the Ky Derby, they pay out the same. Personally, i've never known a card to be barren until AFTER the card was completed.

(dont feel i'm picking on you, i just loved your post and wanted to give some constructive criticism on your ideas, hope you don't mind!)

Here's a few thoughts of my own on things that i see some handicappers can improve on.

Left brain/right brain.

You know how people say that one side of the brain is for creative pursuits, such as painting a picture and the other side is good for analytical stuff and math and numbers? Well, to be a winning horseplayer, i feel you need to develop BOTH sides of your brain. You need to be REALLY good with odds, percentages and math and also great with 'instinct and feel'.

Take chances and learn:
Don't be afraid to take a chance on a horse you feel has no shot. How you 'feel' about a horse doesnt matter. The only thing you need to ask yourself is 'is this horse a good bet'.

[jetermvpbaby]

(just wanted to hit print, i typed a bunch and didnt' want to lose what i typed by some fluke)


ok, moving on.

Never fall in love.

A big HUGE mistake that horseplayers make is they get emotional about a selection. DONT. A good pick is a good pick regardless if you like it, love it or whatever. Never say, "i love such and such..." because if you love it, you may end up placing a bet on that horse regardless of price.

Dont be swayed by morning line:
The ML is made by a 9-5 employee of the track most often. If there's a 4-1 shot that goes off 8-5, its not 'smart money' its just the ML maker made a mistake.

Here's the biggest mistake handicappers make.

Handicappers overrate the people in the game and bet on them.
Since most horseplayers don't really know the horseflesh and their respective talents, they rely on 'trusting' humans to get them the money. For example, as good as Russel Baze is, don't 'trust' him to select the right horse to ride. In fact, do the opposite. Know the horseflesh SO well, that when Russel selects one horse and you know he made a mistake, you pounce. Dont get emotional towards owners, jocks and trainers.

In Southern California at Santa Anita, Del Mar, etc. the jockeys and trainers are SO good that they are all interchangable. There are at least 20 trainers and 20 riders who can win a horserace with the best horse yet i still see people betting the leading rider down to miniscule odds regardless of who he rides. Bet on the horse, the people will cancel each other out for the most part and your superior knowledge of the racehorse will be the determining factor whether you win or lose.

[ceejay]

My resolutions after review of my 06 action :

No win bets on favorites.
No Singles of favs on top of tris.
No Singles of short or likely short-priced (<3/2) favs on P3/4's.
If I feel tempted to do any of the above just pass the race!

[cj]

My resolutions after review of my 06 action :

No win bets on favorites.
No Singles of favs on top of tris.
No Singles of short or likely short-priced (<3/2) favs on P3/4's.
If I feel tempted to do any of the above just pass the race!

Can I borrow your resolutions?

[raybo]

1. Start wagering again. Took a year off to regain my disipline.
2. Do my "after number crunching" analysis consistently. Varied from that in the past, no good.
3. Continue to wager on superfectas only. Don't bet tri's, exactas, or WPS because there's no superfecta in a particular race, even if I have it picked. Varied from that, no good.
4. Don't let confidence in my number crunching program cause me to forget to do the rest of the job. Did that, no good.
5. Don't lower my acceptable payout structure, even if it looks like a nut lock to hit the super. Did that, no good.
6. Continue the refining of my pace analysis system.
7. Work harder on my "current form" analysis.
8. Ignore my feelings, trust my brain.
9. Don't let losing streaks affect my handicapping. Bad news.
10. Have more fun and take timeouts more often.

[ceejay]

5. Don't lower my acceptable payout structure, even if it looks like a nut lock to hit the super. Did that, no good.

How do you enforce "acceptable payout structure" in Super pools, which are "blind?" Do dime supers affect "payout structure?"

[JimG]

To continue working hard to stay ahead of the crowd.

[how cliche]

Cliche, love your post. If you don't mind, i'm going to comment on some of your resolutions.

I love 'action bets' and i'll continue to make them. I feel that action bets 'keep my head in the game' sort of speak. These smaller bets force me to handicap every race, not to get lazy. If i get it in my head that i'm skipping a race with 20 mins to post, i don't believe thats a good way to do things. Handicap right up to the very end. If you dont find anything, skip. But, handicap as if you might bet. It keeps you sharp and focused. At least it does for me.

#3. Bets on runners that have less than 20 pct.
This 'rule' sort of contradicts rule number 13. Ahering to rule 3, you are in a way saying that you can't handle defeat very well. I'd suggest to really work harder at rule 13 and keep betting 20-1 shots you think have an 8 pct chance to win.

#9 avoiding contests. I agree with this.

As far as overly fixating on the triple crown and BC, i'd say that you should really follow racing from around the usa and really 'gear up' for the big days. Those 'big days' are life changers. If you become a great handicapper, use the big days to make a life changing score. Betting a 6 horse field at Bay Meadows w Russel baze at 3-5 and 3 of the 6 horses are trained by dorf isn't going to get you to quit your job. Following the races from around the country and making a monster score on BC day will.

#5 barren cards.
If you are going to be a professional someday, you have to follow every race, every card every nook and cranny. There is always opportunity on every card. Don't worry about some cards being 'bad' littered with 4k claimers and nonsense. Money is just as green regardless if its a 4k claimer or the Ky Derby, they pay out the same. Personally, i've never known a card to be barren until AFTER the card was completed.

(dont feel i'm picking on you, i just loved your post and wanted to give some constructive criticism on your ideas, hope you don't mind!)

Here's a few thoughts of my own on things that i see some handicappers can improve on.

Left brain/right brain.

You know how people say that one side of the brain is for creative pursuits, such as painting a picture and the other side is good for analytical stuff and math and numbers? Well, to be a winning horseplayer, i feel you need to develop BOTH sides of your brain. You need to be REALLY good with odds, percentages and math and also great with 'instinct and feel'.

Take chances and learn:
Don't be afraid to take a chance on a horse you feel has no shot. How you 'feel' about a horse doesnt matter. The only thing you need to ask yourself is 'is this horse a good bet'.

Thanks Jeter. To reply to some of your points...

Enjoy those action bets. I no longer can. I've gone so far as to deprive myself of all handicapping matierials aside from the program and the sheet where I type my selections, rationale, program numbers & acceptable odds.

20% is right in the area where I can still try long shots(10/1+)from time to time. So far I've wagered 8 of them. I began trying them 1%w/1%p, but opted to go a little cheaper after a few finished third. 1%w/.5%p. Thus far I have one winner (35.40/16.40) and one place horse(27.80). I just wagered one on NYE who was unsuccessful at 30-1. So they do come up from time to time.

I disagree that 3 and 13 contradict each other. The lion's share of the runners I wager on fall between the 20 and 30% success probability rates. Therefore I'm going to miss an awful lot & I'd better get used to that. Today, for example, I wagered four horses. 2 north and 2 south. All four finished second. It's the first time in 7 sessions I've lost. I'm not used to it and am uneasy with the feeling. Gotta put it behind me.

When I say barren cards I'm not implying cheap races. I'll bet a clm4,000N2L race any day if the predominant factors of the research indicate it is the correct decision. Barren cards are cards where I'm unable to isolate top selected runners who have enough of a chance to win and/or their morning lines are lower than than their true odds.

[samyn on the green]

Stock a larger supply of oil to keep the money counter finely tuned and slickly lubed. This is important for when I return from the track with my daily score. It is vital that the bill counter is always ready to tally the grand total. I have wasted enough time counting 100 bill after 100 bill after 100 bill. This time consuming process is stealing dear quality time from my family and causing undue friction with the wife.

Smile and have a happy new year!!

[Robert Fischer]

to follow the old proverb - "Early to bed and early to rise...





This resolution is admittedly lacking of handicapping insights. I was out late last night and had a bit too much to drink. Hopefully I can add something intelligent here later in the day. :D

you guys had some great replies in this thread...

[foul]

My #1 resolution for 2007

Bet less money when it is 1$ beer night.

foul

[maxwell]

Win the BC pick 6 ... a share will do. :)

[classhandicapper]

I have 2 new rules for this year.

1. Don't be afraid to let the moths out of your wallet when you have an opinion

2. Don't forget rule #1

[raybo]

How do you enforce "acceptable payout structure" in Super pools, which are "blind?" Do dime supers affect "payout structure?"

I have been doing supers so long tht I can look at the odds on the horses on my ticket and pretty well tell what the minimum payout will be. The dime supers have increased both the pools and the payouts. It appears that the new money is coming from people who know little or nothing about leveraging a ticket, and they still refuse to put horses on their tickets that are high odds, 20/1 and over. Thay keep playing 4 horse boxes and other low chance wagers. That's my feeling, anyway.

[Indulto]

I have 2 new rules for this year.

1. Don't be afraid to let the moths out of your wallet when you have an opinion

2. Don't forget rule #1:lol: :lol:

[betchatoo]

Had a great 2007, but my game can still use lots of improvement

1. If I find I'm getting lazy, quit for the day. Too often if I'm having a decent day, I find I'm just looking at the numbers and making decisions that aren't well thought out. Need to quit then!

2. Always look inside the udm's and numbers. I have found so many winners by recognizing intent and having a feeling for when a horse is back to its best form. Though I know successful players who follow their computer picks regardless of any outside influences, I find by recognizing why it's a good pick, my bankroll increases.

3. Recognize when I have the "God" complex and slap myself silly till I'm over it. When I get on winning streaks I get this feeling I can do no wrong. Often my streak comes to a screeching halt on a large wager I never would have made if I was in my right mind.

4. Spend at least 10 hours a week researching, whether it's reading something new about handicapping, polishing my udm's or learning from someone who knows the game better (or differently) than I do.

5. Try once more to understand the body language of the horses. God knows I've tried before. But I just don't read horses well. Maybe if I watch "The Horse Whisperer."

[46zilzal]

5. Try once more to understand the body language of the horses. God knows I've tried before. But I just don't read horses well. Maybe if I watch "The Horse Whisperer."

find a book by Desmond Morris (The Naked Ape guy) called Horse Watching, make friends with an owner/trainer/breeder and "hang around" with them and ask lots of questions. There is no passive experience (book) like being around horses to educate you on what to look for. It has to be "hands on" to really know what to observe and understand it.

[1st time lasix]

1)bet small to win big .......using proper "overlay" exotic ticket structure 2) use the win pool if I like a particular entry to win at 3/1 or higher no matter what I am doing in the exotics 3} Pass races with less than 7 in the field or if I only have a superficial "feel" because I have not handicapped properly 4} Take more notes on "baby" races for the watch list 5} Avoid the lowest level claiming races where many in the field are hurt/damaged 6) don't play under the influence or when I am getting tired 7] tip well and say thank-you to the people who serve me 8] learn more about handicapping, the tracks i play and the trainers involved with an open mind 9) avoid tracks and wagers with higher takeouts or anywhere they let late batch money into their pools after the gates open 10) have fun and gamble "within" the bankroll earmarked for the activity. :cool:

[befuddlem]

I have 2 new rules for this year.

1. Don't be afraid to let the moths out of your wallet when you have an opinion

2. Don't forget rule #1

What if you have an opinion on every race? ;)

[Valuist]

Stop thinking so much about betting handle and focus more on quality wagers (rebatitis).

[DaveP]

1. Move all of my analysis from excel to access

2. Get used to losing runs and stop trying to pick winners to make me feel good.

[befuddlem]

Stop thinking so much about betting handle and focus more on quality wagers (rebatitis).

Rebates make the world go around!

[Valuist]

Rebates make the world go around!

Absolutely. Especially if you can make all your wagers on your terms.

[xciceroguy]

Never make a bet where i can't at least triple my money!!!!!

[PriceAnProbability]

My resolutions after review of my 06 action :

No win bets on favorites.
No Singles of favs on top of tris.
No Singles of short or likely short-priced (<3/2) favs on P3/4's.
If I feel tempted to do any of the above just pass the race!

No wonder there is value in doing all of the above!

4-5 can be excellent in all of these situations if you know which ones to take.

[PriceAnProbability]

Mine *should* be not to play unless Delaware Park is in season.

Other than that, I think all my weaknesses are gone, so lady luck will have to do any dirtywork.