trust

[Handiman]

Here's a question. Once you settle on a handicappig method, how long does it take to develop trust in your handicapping. The folowing is not about redboarding or anything like that. But I am playing MNR tonight. In the 5th my homegrown program listed top rated horses...2-9-1. Since 2 and 1 were big favs, I gave way to the crowd's handicapping prowess. I skipped the race, figuring it was just waste of money.
It turns out I sat and watched the 9 win and pay $60 to win. So I sit here in a quandry, and beseech you......give me some answers...some guidance.

Also, for the first time I got to watch a 16.5 F race. It was pretty cool.

Handi :)

[xciceroguy]

I think the first mistake you made was playing the races at MNR. I can't get myself to bet on those broken down nags unless im on a 3 day drinking binge in Vegas. Besides that i say pick a system and stick with it. If i beat myself up everytime i would of should have i been dead long ago. Just let it go.

xciceroguy

[Tom]

A lot of people like Mnr a lot.

[Dave Schwartz]

A lot of people like Mnr a lot.

I would be one of those.


Dave

[Overlay]

The quality of the horses at Mountaineer aside, I think accurate record-keeping goes a long way toward establishing and maintaining the kind of confidence you need in a situation like that, coupled with an estimate (however derived, but which record-keeping can also help you with) of what you think each horse's winning chances are. Here your program had horses that turned out to be heavily bet sandwiched around a 30-1 shot. Since the 9 was your program's second choice, it would seem like that level of overlay on a horse that you rated so highly would have justified some level of wager, especially since the thinking of the public was largely in line with your own on the other two horses, and even more so if you could identify any plausible reason why the 9 was being overlooked, either because of perceived weakness in its record (that you had also noted but discounted), or on overbetting of one or more positive angles displayed by other horses.

[PriceAnProbability]

Here's a question. Once you settle on a handicappig method, how long does it take to develop trust in your handicapping. The folowing is not about redboarding or anything like that. But I am playing MNR tonight. In the 5th my homegrown program listed top rated horses...2-9-1. Since 2 and 1 were big favs, I gave way to the crowd's handicapping prowess. I skipped the race, figuring it was just waste of money.
It turns out I sat and watched the 9 win and pay $60 to win. So I sit here in a quandry, and beseech you......give me some answers...some guidance.

Also, for the first time I got to watch a 16.5 F race. It was pretty cool.

Handi :)

If it was a fluke, it's meaningless, and if not, you now know what to do to make money.

I went through the same thing the first two years my ratings turned profitable. It was when they picked Volponi at 43-1 in the BC Classic and I ignored them that I decided it wasn't wise to do that.

[betovernetcapper]

No one has the perfect answer to this kind of situation, but I'll give it a shot.

It helps to create some kind of odds line to stay grounded. In this case you might have made it something like
#2 2-1
#1 3-1
#9 5-1
If you had such an odds-line, you could toss #1 & #2 as underlays and only had to face how much to bet on the #9 who has value but is probably going to lose. In this kind of situation, I'd play a percentage of my standard bet maybe 25-33 %. If my standard bet is $25, then maybe $5 to $8 on #9. I have a chance to win something without being too reckless. :)

[AwolAtPA]

say Handiman,
CONGRATULATIONS to you for writing a program that can find a sixty dollar horse!!

I agree with Overlay that you need record keeping, However, may I add that you also commit to a plan to review your history.

let me give you an example from my current betting history

on 22 Dec, my betting account was down to ONE bet. I decided I would bet ONLY Place instead of the Win-Place betting AND tighten up on only one pick per race. So, today I have eight (8) of the nine days have had a GAIN for the days betting. I know that SOMETIMES I would have made more money betting win BUT the plan was place ONLY!

so, my plan was to finish Dec 2006 with this pick and bet method.

sure I could have been reviewing the bets on each day but the fact is that this method is NEW for me. So, ten days is not unreasonable.

I suggest you do NOT change your program until you find history that shows you have NOT hit another longshot! ie, your program worked at MNR, so do NOT change until you are convinced that sixty dollar horse was a fluke.

Have you used your program at other tracks?

also, as a programmer, I know that I would rather tinker with the program and the data than to review my betting history. This post is my way of talking to myself about what I need to do with my history. I plan to do the simple ..what if.. bet win but there are other reports that can be done with this data that I have not done the processing to use my current betting history.

consider: Start betting NOW!

ie, do not wait for a '..significant..' set of history. I have found that when I started betting a NEW method, the bad pick logic was more quickly obivous because I was betting real money.

good luck,

duane

[cj]

A lot of people like Mnr a lot.

Mnr is a fabulous place to win money.

[Handiman]

My program does give each of the top three rated horses an odds line. The 2 and 1 were underlays. The 9 was an overlay. Hitting double digit horses happens quite frequently with my program. But I just don't have the confidence yet to believe it I guess. Especially when the public and I agree on two other horses. But according to my line, they were both underlays..bigtime.

You are right about the programmer in me can't help but tinker. That's how I got the program to produce like it is now. It's been a 2 year + journey.

Overlay-

My program uses imact values to select and give each horse their odds. I bought your stuff, and after reading the materials, I went back and dug out this old program I had written years ago, and started to tinker with it again. The really cool thing about it, is it will select the favs and include longhots too....just like MNR tonight.

I play MNR, Charles town, Houston, Gulf, Tampa, actually I will play any track I can get video for, so I can watch them run. I Started with a small test bank 4 months ago, and I am still playing on it. I go up and down. I think if I can settle down and get some confidence, I can move into profitability soon. Instead of just breaking even.


Handi :)

[cj]

If you spent two plus years writing a program, have confidence in it and bet accordingly. You have to have confidence in your tools, and bet with confidence, even though you know more bets than not will be losers. Trust the long run, don't worry about the results of individual bets.

[raybo]

If your handicapping program is well grounded in basic handicapping fundamentals and not on irrational system, then you can probably trust it. "The proof is in the pudding", you'll never know if it works until you do it "real time for real money".

[BIG RED]

Handi, when I play at night, which is a lot less than the day, it's usully Sam, CT, Mnr or DeD. I have the same 'problem' as you do. My 1st choice may be 8/5, but my 2nd choice can be like 20-1. It makes yourself think if you did something wrong? Don't, have trust in yourself! If anything I've noticed at night one of two things can be occuring.The m/l is wrong or the betting public is wrong, which both go in your favor. I go 3 deep myself for a win or w/p wager. I have watched plenty of my top choices win at short money, while having bet another pick. But I have also hit maney double figure horses by doing it this way. I swear the overlays at night seem to be 'extra' overlays compared to the day tracks. Give yourself a shot, and then after awhile see if your higher odds choices are paying for the race? ...and hold on, some can be huge!

GL

[Overlay]

Overlay-

My program uses impact values to select and give each horse their odds. I bought your stuff, and after reading the materials, I went back and dug out this old program I had written years ago, and started to tinker with it again. The really cool thing about it, is it will select the favs and include longhots too....just like MNR tonight.

Thanks, I appreciate the mention. If your modified program works along the same lines as my approach, then I would definitely say that the reason the 9 horse was so overlaid was because there were positive factors in its record that the public undervalued. It's horses like these (that are not necessarily top-rated in terms of pure winning chances according to either the public or my own handicapping algorithm, but that are significantly overlaid according to my odds line) that I primarily focus on.

[Pell Mell]

Here's a question. Once you settle on a handicappig method, how long does it take to develop trust in your handicapping. The folowing is not about redboarding or anything like that. But I am playing MNR tonight. In the 5th my homegrown program listed top rated horses...2-9-1. Since 2 and 1 were big favs, I gave way to the crowd's handicapping prowess. I skipped the race, figuring it was just waste of money.
It turns out I sat and watched the 9 win and pay $60 to win. So I sit here in a quandry, and beseech you......give me some answers...some guidance.

Also, for the first time I got to watch a 16.5 F race. It was pretty cool.

Handi :)

No matter how good your program is, the only thing you can really trust it to do is to point out the contenders. The rest of the handicapping procedure is strictly a matter of judgement.
Some may disagree with me but here is my take on that particular race:

1- You are dealing with 2 yr olds which are always subject to dramatic improvement.

2- The #1 horse won it's only start but has not come back to race in 44 days and does not have a published workout since that race. This should make one very suspicious of how this horse came out of that winning race.

3- The #2 since winning it's first race has had 5 tries without winning again. In her favor it can be said she had been going up against some tough horses and after her bad showing in Sept. was given some time off and looks to be coming around again. This horse has been moving from track to track looking for a spot. I would have to say this is the one to beat.

4- This filly has one of the most positive signs you can ever find and that is the DRAMATIC improvement under the care of a new trainer and if you don't believe that, just do some research. This filly got a little action in her 1st race at Woodbine where she ran a decent race. Then after a bad race, was turned over to a new trainer and laid off. The new trainer drops her into a cheap claimer where she runs terrible. She is then turned over to Gross who evidently solves her problems because she jumps in class and destroys the field with speed to spare. If she improves again there's no telling how good she might be.

5- Since she was a leading contender to begin with, she should have been your bet. I would have bet her to win and an exacta box with the #2.

This is just my opinion but I have been doing this for a long, long time and have seen many examples of this kind of play.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Here's a question. Once you settle on a handicappig method, how long does it take to develop trust in your handicapping. The folowing is not about redboarding or anything like that. But I am playing MNR tonight. In the 5th my homegrown program listed top rated horses...2-9-1. Since 2 and 1 were big favs, I gave way to the crowd's handicapping prowess. I skipped the race, figuring it was just waste of money.
It turns out I sat and watched the 9 win and pay $60 to win. So I sit here in a quandry, and beseech you......give me some answers...some guidance.

Also, for the first time I got to watch a 16.5 F race. It was pretty cool.

Handi :)
_______________
I picked the #2 but it was risky since unruhly.
If you follow the crowd you lose takeout and breakage.

[ranchwest]

I can't tell you what it takes to evaluate a program, but I can tell where the minimum is.

Several years ago, I wrote a program that I ran against every track in the country. I was getting about 2 to 7 plays a day (7 days a week, always playing the program selection without question) and winning at an incredible percentage, though mostly on chalk. I maintained an impressive ROI for about three months (so, I'd guess I probably bet about 300 or so races). I was betting "blind", never basing a wager on the odds board, usually not being able to even see the odds (betting the day during lunch, etc.). After that, I was getting only about 80% as many winners as before, but with chalk that was enough to send the daily totals into the red. I moved on to another approach.

So, I'd say you better test for hundreds of races over at least three months to have full confidence in a program.

I have no way to confirm a theory I have, but I suspicion the turn in the success of the program may have been related to moving into another time of year. I'd say if you can win spring, summer, fall and winter then you're doing very well.

[Handiman]

I want to thank everyone for their coments. I am gaining confidence. I'm playing hawthorne today. So Far, hit the 1st for 11.60....8.60 on a single place bet in the 2nd. missed the 3rd and 4th and then just hit the 5th with Dawn of the Condor, my top rated horse for 29.00.

I'm going to stick with this no matter how much I want to tinker. Maybe I'll tinker with another program and just play with this one.

Onto the 6th.

Handi :)