MonteCarloProb Play of The Day 12-21-06

[cccorona]

Today's race is the 8th from Laurel Park. Three horses qualify as a contender
when blending the odds lines from the Prime Power and Speed Rating.
The pp's can be viewed at:

http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/hgrahammotion_63786.pdf


Race Number = 8 Prime Power
Pgm# Ratings StdDev Prob Odds....Blended Odds
1 112.5 9 .051172 18.54
2 120 9 .10005 9
3 122 9 .135863 6.36
4 115 9 .06682 13.97
5 123 9 .150415.............5.65........3.5
6 129 9 .2638................2.79.........2
7 123.5 9 .160964...........5.21.........4
8 116 9 .07135 13.02

Race Number = 8 Speed Rating Par=93
Pgm# Ratings StdDev Prob Odds
5 91 11 .318095 2.14
6 94 11 .430743 1.32
7 89 11 .2513 2.98

[levinmpa]

cccorona. Thanks for posting these everyday. Have you looked at CJ's odds-line calculator spreadsheet? He said that the Standard Deviation can be set using the Val Length figure * 3.5, which I set to 5.71. I ran the 8th at Lrl through it and came up with:


Prgm # PP Speed fair odds bet odds
1 112 79 16.2 20.6
2 120 86 7.1 9.1
3 122 87 5.5 7.2
4 114 83 14.2 17.9
5 123 89 5.9 7.7
6 129 94 3.3 4.4
7 123 89 5.5 7.2
8 115 85 12.2 15.4

[cccorona]

ML,

Thanks for your reply. I realy like CJ's format and have been playing around with
it for a few days. I really like the fact that you can enter expected win percentages for horse without any "form". Thanks for asking CJ about the SD.
That was the missing link. I wanted to keep with the MonteCarloProb through
a 20 wagering cycle, which hit today. I will post the results this evening.
Thanks CJ for the excellent tool and thanks to everyone that makes this message board one of a kind.

CC

[cccorona]

5............MC line 3.5..........actual 4.5..............overlay......wager loss



6............MC line 2.............actual 1.5..............underlay



7............MC line 4..............actual 2/1.............underlay.......winner



horse #5 overlay and wager loss -$2.00