Claiming game

[Show Me the Wire]

Let's play something more intriguing than posting picks. Let's do the ultimate wager. Tomorrow at AP I intend to drop a slip. I have two prospects in mind. One prospect is entered in race 1 and the other is entered in race 9.

What horse would you select out of either one? I know the ones I want.

I will report the outcome after the races on whether I was out shook or I passed because of the horses physical appearence in the paddock.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

Without desire the heart becomes quiet and in this manner the world becomes tranquil.

[Show Me the Wire]

Tomorrow means :

October 24, 2002 as I just noticed the time of my post.

And I will only post the outcome if the baord is interested. So let me know if you are interested.

Regards.
Show Me the Wire

Nature acts without intent.

[baravot]

I'm interested.

[smf]

SMTW,

Very creative, thanks for the new slant.

Like Baravot, I'm in too. Back later.

[LurkingBettor]

SMtW,

I'd be interested to know the outcome. Would love to know your pre-claim reasoning as well.

Who's your trainer of record?

Good luck!
LB

[smf]

answer...assuming both prime candidates are healthy..., I would take (La bred) XTREME MONIQUE b/c I would winter in New Orleans (not Chicago). Bound to be some sweet spots in the condition books in NOLA, Vinton. Looks like all alw conditions are open.

However, if you're looking foreward to racing next year in Illinois then I'd go w/ TAMARACK HILLS (can't figure the 15k tag, so it's a trainer's call, perhaps).....Useless info below.

race 1....

HOLDIN ALL CARDS..no...looks too old to get your $$ worth. Have to run in jail, leaving only the month of December to get 18k back (not likely).

PICS LEGEND... No, imo....after his last win at SPT, he's never been in the winner's circle. Been close but not what I'd wanna see. Saw this one run at FG and he did have some ability I thought. There's a trainer in that pp a lil bit back that is a bad claimed from, so I'd stay away.

STOLEN HONOR...No wins on the pp= not good. At FG , Tomillo isn't a bad nor a good claimed from, so if your trainer sees something that can change this one, then yes.

IM REGISTERED.....No, 6yo that won @ a lower tag w/ bug rider. Jail time w/ make this horse a feed bill for a few months. If you're able to run at another track (like MNR) after AP closes and your trainer sees something, then yes. I'd run him at 15k or so and collect the winner's check (and claim $$) assuming you think you can win first out.

LETSEMROLL...an Ill bred that has one alw condition left. Looks like the turf to dirt angle almost worked and Robbie got the most from the horse, 2 back. Your call, if Divito is a solid claim from and the hoss looks physically ok, I'd take him.

SUPER FUZZY....I bet he gets claimed, I wouldn't do it tho. The Dorf factor is in play it looks like. When the Dorf runs a horse at a higher level ability wise than the others on the pp, they usually don't exceed that level for awhile.

ZEAL WITH A KISS....No. Trainer's call, but not good on paper (no wins in 2002, w/b a 6yo sprinter, etc)
---------------------------

race 9

Both halves of entry....NO.

TAMARACK HILLS....Hell fricken yes, if he's healthy. A full to Takhodha Hills (500k). I assume your trainer and everyone else has looked at this one physically, right?

XTREME MONIQUE....Personally, I would run at FG in the winter so this w/b my choice as well as THills. This is a LA bred and s/b competitive in LA bred races. Also can run for some LARGE $$ at (gulp ) Delta Downs now that slots are there.

SKI HERO....If you think this one can do better on turf next time, then yes. APR CD and Maiden stats says no----dam is 0 for 4 w/ her runners on grass. I wouldn't claim him.

OUT OF HERE....Absolutely not.

COOL RAIN.....NO

Other 2 in the race w/h to be a trainer's call (physicalty). Not sure I'd feel comfy claiming off Tomillo right now given his health problems.

Good luck, hope you win the shakes.

[smf]

SMTW,

I have a question concerning runners in Ill. Do you guys have to pay sales tax on claims? In Cal, they do, in Texas you don't.

[Show Me the Wire]

Lurkingbettor:

Michael B. Campbell

smf:

No sales tax in Illinois.

you are right I am not interested in a ten year old horse.

Any other interested party:

Currently weather conditiond are misrable, cold anr rainy.
If the track comes up sloppy my plans to claim may be hindered.

Trainers are notorious for scratching when the track is sloppy.

It is currently 5:44 am and I will be leaving for the barn shortly.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

The more I experience the less I know.

[ridersup]

SMTW

Very interested in your claim for today as I know Arlington is your home track.

Also remember your dropping a claim at Churchill during the spring meet. How did that horse turn out?

What's with Catalano-Calabrese. Yesterday(10-23) in the first race they entered a horse they claimed in Sept for $25k in a 10k race. Then in the 3d race they entered a $75k claimed horse for $40k. They have been doing this on a regular basis apparently just to get the owner's title for Calabrese.

[Show Me the Wire]

Had a few minutes to check in:

I am surprised at the level of participation. I thought more posters would weigh in with their opinions.

I was especially interested to hear opinions from Karlskorner and Jaguar. I mention both specifically becuase their posts indicate knowledge regarding connections and the horses ability and not just handicapping. Please do not take any references to yourselfs as personal attacks. I really am interested in your opinions.

ridersup:

Claim turned out well, ran 2nd and then won for the same tag.

Catalano is an excellent conditioner and the connections know where a horse should be spotted to win. If you notice the horse in the 3rd race won by a short margin, purchase price notwithstanding.

Of course the connections were all out to set the record and keep it going.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

Seek balance in all you do.

[GR1@HTR]

Speaking of claims, BM monthly indicated that last month a So Cal horse had a record 43 claims on it. At the end of the race, they had to draw names from a hat to determine who got the horse...

[GR1@HTR]

01-AP Thu Oct 24 2002 6.0F Dirt 3up C18 $22000 Par:16

__________________________________________________ _____________________________
[2] Stolen Honor 4yr Life: 26 04-01-03 Dist: 07 00-01-01
10/1 Laviol (12%)+ 120 S Track: 10 03-00-01 Lb WetD: 03 00-00-00
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
025 AP 9.0w 3up C18 120 E | . 20 | 5th Lb tired
054 AP 6.0D 3up C25 121 S*| . 19 | 5th Lb mild rally
095 AP 8.0D 3up C25 121 S | .17 | 4th L flattened out
112 AP 9.0D 3up C25 121 E | . 20 | 3rd Lb no winning bid
131 AP 8.0D 3up NW2 120 P | .17 | 4th Lb no factor
150_HAW 8.5T 3up NW2 119 E | . 20 | 11t Lb tired
216 SPT 6.0D 3up NW2 119 S*| . 28| 8th Lb outrun
245 FG 5.5T 4up OCL 118 S | 16 | 6th Lb outrun
279_FG 6.0D 4up C25 118 R*| . 22 | 7th Lb saved ground

__________________________________________________ _____________________________
[1] Holdin all Card 9yr Life: 51 16-10-11 Dist: 25 10-08-03
5/2 Salvin (10%)+ 120 S Track: 05 00-02-00 L WetD: 10 04-03-00
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
019 AP 6.5D 3up C18 120 R | . 37| 10t L trailed throughout
036 AP 6.0D 3up C18 120 P*| . 18 | 2nd L second best
054 AP 6.0D 3up C25 121 S*| . 25 | 8th L no factor
070_AP 5.5D 3up C25 121 S | 16 |^4th L improved position
119 CD 6.0D 3up C25 116 S*| .17 | Won L 5-6w trip,driving
130_CD 5.5D 3up C18 116 S | 15 | Won L bobble start,driv,7w
325 MNR 6.0w 3up CLF 115 E |07 . | 2nd L bid 4-5 wide, gamely
338 CD 6.5D 3up C50 116 S | . 19 | 8th L failed to menace
357 CD 6.0D 3up C50 116 S*| 16 | 2nd Lb steadied 7/16s

__________________________________________________ _____________________________
[3] I'm Registered 6yr Life: 37 09-06-04 Dist: 25 05-03-02
9/2 Thomps (00%)+ 119 P Track: 04 01-00-00 Lb WetD: 04 01-01-00
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
018 AP 5.0D 3up C14 113 P | 16 | Won Lb driving
047 AP 5.0D 3up STR 118 S | . 20 | 6th Lb bid 4 wide, faltered
074 AP 6.0D 3up C18 121 E*| .17 | 5th Lb weakened
113_AP 6.0D 3up STR 119 S*| . 21 | 4th Lb showed little
195 OP 6.0D 3up STR 116 P*| . 36| 5th Lb faded
231 OP 6.0D 4up STR 115 S*| . 29| 9th Lb steadied 9/16
249_OP 6.0D 4up C45 114 P*| . 34| 7th Lb tired
474 PRM 6.0D 3up C25 119 F*| 15 |^Won Lb impeded foe 1/16
488 PRM 6.0D 3up C25 119 F*| 16 |^2nd Lb held place, inside

__________________________________________________ _____________________________
[4] Letsrollem 5yr Life: 26 04-04-07 Dist: 17 03-04-05
8/1 Meier (11%)+ 120 E Track: 17 04-04-05 Lb WetD: 03 01-01-00
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
019 AP 6.5D 3up C18 120 P | . 20 | 3rd Lb bumped upper stretch
036 AP 6.0D 3up C18 120 E*| . 19 | 4th Lb no rally
055 AP 8.0T 3up STR 119 P | . 24 | 8th Lb gave way
074 AP 6.0D 3up C18 123 P*| 16 | 3rd Lb no winning bid
097 AP 6.0D 3up NW2s 119 P*| . 19 | Won Lb driving
117 AP 6.5D 3up NW2s 120 P | . 23 |^4th Lb belatedly
139 AP 6.0D 3up NW2s 120 P*| . 19 | 2nd Lb second best
160 HAW 6.0D 3up NW2s 119 E*| . 25 | 8th Lb tired
179_SPT 6.0D 3up NW2s 119 E*| . 22 | 3rd Lb weakened a bit

__________________________________________________ _____________________________
[1A] Pic's Legend 5yr Life: 43 07-04-08 Dist: 25 05-01-04
5/2 Salvin (10%)+ 120 P Track: 08 01-01-01 Lb WetD: 06 00-01-02
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
036 AP 6.0D 3up C18 120 S*| . 20 | 5th Lb flattened out
074 AP 6.0D 3up C18 121 P*| .17 |^4th Lb no rally
095 AP 8.0D 3up C25 121 P | 15 |^3rd Lb lost place late
110 AP 6.0D 3up C18 121 S*| .17 | 2nd Lb 5wd 1/4, just missed
141 AP 6.0D 3up C25 122 P*| 16 | 4th Lb no rally
171 HAW 6.5w 3up C25 119 E | . 20 | 2nd Lb second best
198 SPT 6.0w 3up OCL 119 E | 16 | 6th Lb tired
221 SPT 6.0D 3up OCL 119 R*| . 40| dis Lb lost jockey
264 FG 6.0D 4up C25 118 P*| 15 | Won Lb ran past leaders

__________________________________________________ _____________________________
[5] Super Fuzzy 4yr Life: 27 09-05-03 Dist: 18 05-04-03
7/5 Campbe (00%)+ 120 P Track: 11 03-03-02 Lb WetD: 02 01-01-00
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
015 AP 6.0D 3up C25 120 P*| 16 | 3rd Lb no winning bid
036 AP 6.0D 3up C18 120 E*| 15 |^Won Lb driving
054 AP 6.0D 3up C25 121 P*| .17 | 2nd Lb second best
074 AP 6.0D 3up C18 121 S*| . 18 | 7th Lb no factor
091 AP 6.5D 3up C18 121 E | 16 | 2nd Lb second best
110 AP 6.0D 3up C18 121 P*| . 18 | 4th Lb flattened out
125 AP 7.0D 3up C25 122 F | . 20 | 7th Lb tired
149 HAW 6.5D 3up C25 119 P | . 21 | 4th Lb bid, faltered
188 SPT 6.0D 4up C25 119 F*| . 20 |^5th Lb weakened

__________________________________________________ _____________________________
[6] Zeal With a Kis 5yr Life: 34 04-06-03 Dist: 31 04-06-03
5/1 Lovato (09%)+ 120 P Track: 15 01-03-02 Lb WetD: 05 00-00-01
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
018 AP 5.0T 3up STK 116 R |11 . | 9th Lb trailed throughout
036 AP 6.0D 3up C18 120 F*| . 20 | 6th Lb tired
074 AP 6.0D 3up C18 121 S*| . 20 | 12t Lb tired
103 AP 6.0D 3up NW2 119 S*| . 20 | 7th Lb weakened
124 AP 6.0D 3up C35 122 F*| 14. |^3rd Lb couldn't last
141 AP 6.0D 3up C25 122 E*| 15 | 2nd Lb second best
164 HAW 6.0D 3up NW2 119 P*|13 . | 5th Lb weakened
199 SPT 6.0w 3up NW2 119 S | . 20 | 6th Lb tired
216_SPT 6.0D 3up NW2 119 P*| . 27 |^7th Lb tired
================================================== =============================


My opinion: Claim Zeal With a Kis and run it on the turf or CLM steadly improving Super Fuzzy

[GR1@HTR]

09-AP Thu Oct 24 2002 6.0F Dirt 3yr C25 $25000 Par:16

__________________________________________________ _____________________________
[2] Tamarack Hills 3yr Life: 02 01-00-01 Dist: 00 00-00-00
5/1 Dougla (00%)+ 120 S Track: 00 00-00-00 L WetD: 00 00-00-00
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
041_TP 6.5D 3up M15 119 P | . 21 | Won L 4 wide bid, driving
112 CD 5.0D 3up M15 116 S | . 29| 3rd L angled 7w late,gaining
| . |
| . |

[3] Xtreme Monique 3yr Life: 17 03-03-03 Dist: 07 01-01-01
12/1 Silva (11%)+ 120 S Track: 05 00-01-01 L WetD: 03 00-00-02
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
028 AP 7.0D 3yr C18 120 F | . 36| 7th L tired
052 AP 6.0w 3yr C25 120 S | . 24 | 3rd L flattened out
075 AP 7.0D 3yr C18 120 S | . 27 | 2nd L blocked 1/4 pole
092 AP 6.0D 3yr C25 120 S*| . 23 | 5th L no factor
127 AP 7.0D 3yr C35 120 S | . 26 | 7th L wouldn't load gate
154 LS 5.0T 3yr NW1 116 P | . 20 | 3rd L 4wide turn, flat late
187 LS 6.0D 3yr NW1 117 E*| . 20 | 2nd L second best
215 FG 8.0T 3yr STKs 113 P | . 27 | 9th L close up, gave way
223 FG 6.0D 3yr C50r 117 P*| . 24 | Won L came again, clear late

__________________________________________________ _____________________________
[1] Excellabet 3yr Life: 13 02-01-02 Dist: 02 00-00-01
3/1 Lovato (11%) 120 E Track: 04 00-01-01 Lb WetD: 03 00-00-00
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
012 AP 8.0D 3up NW1 116 P | . 20 | 9th Lb tired
056 AP 8.0T 3yr C35 120 F | . 18 | Won Lb driving
062 AP 6.0w 3yr C40 120 E | . 24 | 5th Lb tired
092 SAR 7.0w 3yr C50 120 P | . 38| 8th Lb brief speed, tired
127 AP 6.0D 3yr C50 120 E*| . 21 | 3rd Lb no winning bid
140 AP 8.0D 3yr NW1 118 F | . 21 |^2nd Lb second best
170_HAW 8.0T 3yr NW1 117 F | . 18 |^3rd Lb couldn't last
215_WO 5.0D 3yr NW1 119 P | . 23 | 4th Lb evenly
350 WO 5.5w 2yr C50 122 E | . 29| 7th Lb weakened

__________________________________________________ _____________________________
[4] Victory Sweep 3yr Life: 04 01-01-00 Dist: 03 01-01-00
8/1 La Sal (24%)+ 120 E Track: 04 01-01-00 Lb WetD: 02 00-01-00
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
012 AP 7.0D 3yr C35 120 E | . 19 | 5th Lb 3 wide, gave way
052 AP 6.0w 3yr C25 120 E | . 23 | 2nd Lb caught late
062 AP 6.0w 3yr C40 120 P | . 25 | 6th Lb bid, faltered
091 AP 6.0D 3up M25 120 F*| . 23 | Won Lb ridden out
| . |
| . |
| . |
| . |
| . |

__________________________________________________ _____________________________
[5] Ski Hero 3yr Life: 16 03-00-05 Dist: 09 03-00-03
6/1 Sterli (16%) 120 P Track: 06 02-00-01 Lb WetD: 03 00-00-01
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
022 AP 8.0w 3yr C25 120 S | . 20 |^4th Lb flattened out
052 AP 6.0w 3yr NW1 118 F | . 19 | 6th Lb tired
070 AP 5.5D 3yr NW1 118 S | 16 | 3rd Lb belatedly
092 AP 6.0D 3yr C25 120 P*| . 19 | Won Lb driving
109_AP 6.0D 3yr C35 115 S*| . 21 | 3rd Lb broke in-bothered foes
173 SPT 6.0D 3yr OCL 120 P*| . 35| 6th Lb exchanged bump start
189 SPT 6.0D 3up C30r 115 E*| . 20 | Won Lb driving
215 SPT 6.0D 3yr C25 116 S*| . 28| 3rd Lb improved position
237 SPT 5.5D 3yr NW1 117 S | . 30| 6th Lb outrun

__________________________________________________ _____________________________
[6] Out of Here 3yr Life: 15 03-05-00 Dist: 05 02-02-00
9/2 Laneri (24%)+ 120 S Track: 04 01-02-00 Lb WetD: 00 00-00-00
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
012 AP 7.0D 3yr C35 120 S | . 20 |^6th Lb faltered
033 AP 6.0D 3yr C25 120 S*| 16 |^2nd Lb 5 wide 1/4, missed
068 AP 6.5D 3up NW1 116 S |11 . | 2nd Lb 4 wide 1/4-outfinished
097 AP 6.0D 3yr C50 119 P*|11 . |^Won Lb 4 wide 1/4, driving
126_AP 8.0T 3yr C50 119 F | 16 | 2nd Lb second best
174 SPT 6.0D 3up C30r 115 P*| . 20 |^Won Lb driving
211 GP 6.5D 3yr C30r 122 S | . 30|^4th Lb 4 wide, passed tired
236 GP 8.5T 3yr C80 118 S | . 21 | 7th Lb failed to menace
280 GP 7.0D 3yr M45 122 P | . 25 |^Won Lb 5 wide, just lasted

__________________________________________________ _____________________________
[7] Eddie B. Ready 3yr Life: 18 04-02-02 Dist: 03 02-00-00
4/1 Sibill (17%)+ 120 P Track: 06 03-00-01 L WetD: 02 00-00-00
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
012 AP 7.0D 3yr C35 120 P | . 19 | 3rd L belatedly
033 AP 6.0D 3yr C25 120 P*| 15 | Won L driving
056 AP 8.0D 3yr NW1 118 P | . 24 | 7th L steady fade
069 AP 6.0D 3yr C25 120 P*| 15 | Won L driving
110 AP 7.0D 3yr C25 115 P | . 19 | Won L 3 wide, driving
130 AP 9.0D 3up NW1 116 P | . 34| 7th L steady fade
144 HAW 8.5D 3yr OCL 117 E | . 30| 5th L tired
158 HAW 8.5T 3yr C25 117 S | . 27 | 4th L no factor
172 HAW 8.3D 3up C18r 115 P | . 22 |^2nd L held on gamely

__________________________________________________ _____________________________
[1A] Redraw 3yr Life: 08 02-00-00 Dist: 02 00-00-00
3/1 Fires (00%)+ 122 S Track: 03 01-00-00 Lb WetD: 00 00-00-00
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
007 AP 8.0D 3up C25r 118 E | .17 | Won Lb edged clear late
039 KD 8.0T 3up NW1 112 S | . 21 | 6th Lb no late gain
075 AP 9.0D 3yr NW1 118 S | . 23 | 5th Lb 3 wide, outrun
084 AP 8.5T 3yr NW1 118 S | . 22 | 8th L showed little
124_AP 6.0D 3up NW1 116 R*| . 22 | 8th L shuffled back start
378 KEE 8.0T 2yr NW1 120 R | . 27 | 4th L angled 6w lane,no bid
404 KD 6.0T 2yr MDN 114 S | . 24 | Won L hop shadows bobble,drv
427 ELP 6.0D 2yr MDN 120 S*| . 36| 7th L passed tired ones
| . |

__________________________________________________ _____________________________
[8] Cool Rain Falli 3yr Life: 19 03-03-05 Dist: 11 01-03-02
5/1 Molina (11%)+ 122 P Track: 05 00-01-03 L WetD: 03 00-00-01
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
027 GLD 6.0D 3up NW2 114 E*| . 20 |^Won L bid 1/4,ridden out
051 GLD 6.0D 3up NW2 116 P*| . 28|^3rd L inside trip
059 GLD 6.0D 3up NW3 115 P*| . 19 |^2nd L 4 wide,late rally
076 GLD 6.0D 3up NW2 115 P*| . 20 |^2nd L 3 wide,rallied late
090 GLD 6.5D 3up NW1 114 P | .17 |^Won L rail,bid 1/4,driving
102 AP 7.0D 3up C25r 118 E | . 24 | 3rd L 4 wide, no winning bid
126 AP 8.0T 3yr C50 118 P | . 24 | 6th L outrun
140 AP 6.0D 3up C25r 118 S*| . 22 | 2nd L 4 wide 1/4, 2nd best
159 HAW 6.5D 3up NW1 114 P | . 27 | 11t L gave way


My opinion, take the young class dropper Victory Sweep or take a super flyer on the lowly TP import Tamarack Hills.

[hurrikane]

I know nothing about this but I would take the drop on Victory Sweep. Think he can run at this level and improve as he matures..lightly raced.
Other choice would be the Super Fuzzy one.

smf, curious..you discount out of here on the drop?

[smf]

hurrikane,

No, the drop of OUT OF HERE is in line, imo, and the horse is well meant for today. It's the future races that w/ scare me off.

[superfecta]

I would take Tamarack Hills if he looks OK.Lightly raced,good breeding,finished in the money in his races.Could be a nice claim.

[Show Me the Wire]

Fellow Posters:

I have to be brief; I forget I have to attend the BC Press Party. I promise I will go through my analysis hopefully tomorrow. Final result no claims none passed the eye test.

Horses considered for claim, 1st race # 4 Letsrollem (couldn’t claim Zeal With A Kiss as trainer is a friend of mine) and 9th race # 7 Eddie B. Ready.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

Forget your habits and simplify your affairs.

[smf]

Xtreme Monique wins, and pays $70.

Smith/ Panic comes out a BIG winner with this runner. Win the race and keep the horse! They're almost out on the claim already, and they can run X-Monique protected thru out the FG meet if they like, then run at a nice tag in March.

Assuming they head down to LA again, the condition book at FG has some easy spots for a LA bred of this caliber in str alw's....Might wanna keep this one in a stablemail. If they keep this gelding healthy, it'll pay nicely for both the connections and the handicapper.

[Show Me the Wire]

Part one

Thanks to all who participated in this post and for your patience.

Analysis:

Race 1:

Holdin All Cards and I’m Registered eliminated on age,

Stolen Honor too slow and over priced.

Pic’s Legend and Super Fuzzy eliminate due to Hollendorfer factor. Not a good from claim trainer

Options:

Zeal With A Kiss:

Fast enough for class or slight step down: Needed Sept. 18th race as a tightner and the October race looks like a public work. Additionally trainer gave a good work 4 days prior to the Sept. 16th start, which indicates soundness.

As I said trainer is a good friend and as a courtesy you do not claim from friends. Excluding the friend angle the horse would have been a good selection.

Letsrollem:

Positives are fast enough and competitive at 18K against solid horses. Additionally, an Illinois bred which makes him eligible for bonus money.

Negatives: No more state restricted conditions except stakes. Does not look like a stakes quality animal. Other major drawback is lack of works, only one work that took place on Aug 21, over 2 months ago. Additionally, connections are giving mixed signals, they have not moved him up or down indicating an attempt to win through the animals current fitness.

Even with these negatives the horse is a viable candidate up until the visual paddock inspection. The horse failed the eyeball test. We noticed a scar the horse did not have last time it raced and the trainer did not like the way the horse looked.

Therefore, we ripped up the slip on Letsrollem.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

The more I experience the less I know.

[Show Me the Wire]

Part two

Analysis race 9:

Excellabet and Redraw trained by excellent trainer, but poor claim from trainer. Excellabet scratched and Redraw too expensive for its level of talent.

Cool Rain Falling too slow and over priced.

Out of Here two major drawbacks of having two bad claim from trainers of Asmussen and Catalano.

Tamarack Hills:

Trainer is good with his evaluation of horses. Would not have started a full to Takoda Hills in a 15K MCL at TP lay and then layoff the colt until Sept. 13 to only reappear in another MCL $15k affair.

Scherer bringing colt back at $25K shows even less confidence. Scherer didn’t even pretend he liked the colt. The next logical step for a well-bred maiden winner is in a A other than and the trainer didn’t take that step.

Read trainers moves as poison. He is not that altruistic to be giving such a well-bred animal away.

Ski Hero checked him out before last time he raced. But physically did not pass. He has what horsemen call ankles.

Xtreme Monique:

The winner but not considered a claiming prospect. Has performed poorly against solid horses at this level. In fact Ski Hero ran past this horse earlier in the meet. Additionally, according to my numbers he is too slow.

Victory Sweep:

Performs poorly against quality colts. Tommy Cat ran earlier on today’s card for 50K (15K more than last race) and won, while Victory Sweep drops. Very negative move by trainer. More big negatives:

First start as a three year old came at the end of July. Indicates serious problems getting this animal to the track. Additionally, races are spaced too far apart for a claiming animal, which indicates physical problems. Trainer never seriously tested this animal in A other than always had it for sale. Colt is too slow and only good race was on the stretch out to 7 furlongs. Subjectively, I do not like when a horse’s best race comes during the stretch out. To me it shows it can only run competitively against slower. Notice I did not say improve, but I said best race. Too many negatives to attached to this colt.

Eddie B. Reddie:

Live candidate based on speed, type of competition, only real negative 14 races this year.
I did not claim based on visual inspection.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

P.S. smf nice handicapping for the win.

As a wise man told me do not fry bacon without a shirt and I had to find out way.

[keilan]

SMTW -- nice, very nice

[Show Me the Wire]

Keilan:

Thanks.

I once again proved I am not proficient with the keyboard. No such thing as keyboarding classes when I went through the educational system.


My closing tag should (should've, would've, and could've) have read:

As a wise man told me do not fry bacon without a shirt and I had to find out why.

Disregard any typos.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

Some lessons are more painful than others.

[smf]

SMTW,

Sounds like you cover all the bases, good for you (shhh on Steve A and the Catman). Also, amazing that the Dorf Factor is the same there as it is in Cal.

One note on Asmussen, I noticed a trainer named Gracia up there took one off Asmussen and won, bumping up in alw conditions if I recall. Rarely see that happen down here.

Sometimes the smartest bets are the ones you don't make and sounds like you've got that down w/ claims too.

Last note on X-Monique...I'd personally disregard what XM did for Granitz and Candies. That pattern of winning when one of those trainers is involved is a good pattern. The pp shows a fire sale but a lot of winners come from that source. Smith took the horse and won first off the claim (thursday).

Good luck, and thanks for the fresh topic.

[LurkingBettor]

Nice analysis by all who posted. A special thanks to SMtW for taking the time to post up an interesting personal experience during this busy week.

One more dumb question (which I should know the answer to).....How long before post do you have to have your claim slip dropped at AP? Seems you wouldn't have very much time for a visual inspection in the paddock AND a run to the box?

Thanks,
LB

[Show Me the Wire]

Lurkingbettor:

At AP at or prior to 10 minutes to post. You are right about time. Remeber the slip may be completed and time stamped at any time prior to the deadline, it only has to be deposited in the claim box before the box is removed prior to the specific race. Generally, it is a two person operation one watches the horse the other stands by with completed slip in hand waiting for the " drop the slip" call.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

Try to unlearn one thing everyday.

[cash]

enjoyable and informative thread...

[Show Me the Wire]

smf:

Enjoyed your analysis and took a second look at Xtreme Monique. I agree with your comments regarding Candies and Granitz. That is why Smith Jr. made a good claim at 18K. However I think 25K is steep for an animal that won a state restricted condition-claiming race.

Your sheet style speed numbers also impresses me.

One thing I believe is that you got game. I hope I am not wagering into the same pools as you.

BTW I have to red board a little, even though I missed Xtreme Monique I caught Ben’s Bluesman the next day.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

Too much color blinds us

[LurkingBettor]

SMtW,

Thanks for your answer on the timing of the drop. Kind of figured that's the way you worked it. What did we do before cell phones and two-way radios?

Did you (or your trainer) not have a chance to catch any of your prospects during a morning work? No sneaking around barns or paying off vets for info? Heck, I'd try just about anything to avoid an $18 to $25K claiming error. Sounds like you have some experience in the physicality area, though.

FWIW, both GR1 and smf are excellent handicappers down here in the DFW area. Different approaches, but, both successful. Next time you get the urge to spend some money, let us know and we'll play the game again!

Regards,
LB

[smf]

SMTW,

Thanks for the very kind words. Very humbling for me to read that.

Actually, if you bet LS at all last season, you probably have some of my money.

The sheet style figs were from GR1. They are an HTR feature. I see GR1's HTR printouts at the track sometimes, it seems to be a very good program that covers a lot of ground.

Good luck at the windows, and the claimbox.

[Show Me the Wire]

Lurkingbettor:

I play the game everyday.

To address your question regarding catching horses on the track, it is an almost impossible task. At any given, time there could be upwards of 100 hundred horses on the track exercising or working. Additionally, you do not know what time the marked horse will make its appearence if any on the main track or the exercise track. Plus you have your own work to do. You have to watch your horses for clues how they are doing and alot of other things must be accomplished every day.

The way the barns are situated it would be difficult to sneak around. If you were watching a certain barn it would be obvious. I guess I could just walk in and tell the trainer I am going to claim your horse today, could you take him out of the stall so I could look at it (making a funny there).

The vets would be no help either.

Hope the above information helps.

As an aside, I enjoyed enjoyed this dialogue. When I started this thread I hoped it would be educational for me as well as everyone else. I also thought there were many others on this board that walk the walk, which I inferred through reading posts. I now believe I am mistaken.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

Nature acts without intent.