NFL WEEK 16 - Who's gonna make it?

[ponyplayerdotca]

Wow, the wild card playoff spots are a mess with just two weeks left, eh?

Thoughts?

AFC PLAYOFF RACE

(12-2) S.D. [ at SEA.,v. ARIZ.]
(11-3) IND. [ at HOU., v. MIA.]
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(11-3) BALT. [ at PIT., v. BUF.]
(10-4) N.E. [at JACK.,at TENN.]
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.(8-6) DEN. [ v. CIN., v. S.F.]
.(8-6) CIN. [ at DEN., v. PIT.]
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.(8-6) JACK. [ v. N.E. ,at K.C.]
.(8-6) NYJ. [ at MIA. ,v. OAK.]
.(7-7) PIT. [ v. BALT.,at CIN.]
.(7-7) K.C. [ at OAK.,v. JACK.]
.(7-7) BUF. [ v.TENN.,at BALT.]
.(7-7) TENN. [ at BUF., v. N.E.]

NFC PLAYOFF RACE

(12-2) CHI. [ at DET., v. G.B.]
.(9-5) N.O. [ at NYG., v. CAR.]
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.(9-5) DAL. [ V. PHIL.,v. DET.]
.(8-6) SEA. [ V. S.D., at T.B.]
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.(8-6) PHIL. [ at DAL., v. ATL.]
.(7-7) NYG. [ v. N.O.,at WASH.]
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.(7-7) ATL. [ v. CAR.,at PHIL.]
.(6-8) MIN. [ at G.B.,v. St.L.]
.(6-8) St.L. [ v.WASH., at MIN.]
.(6-8) S.F. [ V.ARIZ., at DEN.]
.(6-8) G.B. [ v. MIN., at CHI.]
.(6-8) CAR. [ at ATL., at N.O.]

[ponyplayerdotca]

BALT. at PIT (PIT. by 3 1/2)

BALT. has been playing too many close games (11-3 record is a bit inflated?).

They thumped the Steelers 27-0 back in week 12 - so why are they 3 1/2-pt. dogs? Because McNair's hand is a question mark, sure. But to me, it's because their poor offensive games in the conference have come on the road mostly, and two against division foes they beat soundly at home:

WON at CLE. 15-14 / LOST at DEN. 13-3 / LOST at CIN. 13-7

With the Steelers inexplicably still alive for the wildcard after a 2-and-6 start, and the lingering embarassment of that 27-0 pounding they took in Baltimore (their last loss no less), I think Pittsburgh will turn the tables on the Ravens this Sunday. I'm just not sold on Billick's team yet. They look great at home, but vulnerable on the road.

I don't usually like laying points in a divisional game, but I'm willing to do so here. Steelers rebound.

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N.E. at JACK. (JACK. by 2 1/2)

I can't see the Jaguars finishing on a high - quite the contrary. After some great wins this year over the Eagles, Giants, and Colts, they are going to pay the ultimate price for those two losses to the Texans, and that momentum stopping loss to the Titans last week. Both RBs (Taylor and Jones-Drew aren't 100%). I see them dropping their last two games, ending 8-8.

Conversely, the one place the Patriots have usually faired well this year is on the road. They are 5-1, with the only dud in Miami two weeks ago (21-0). Otherwise, they've handled the Jets, Bengals, Bills, Vikings, and Packers with relative ease. You're getting points in a situation that sets up for the Patriots to do well moreso than their opponents. New England wins outright.

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PHIL. at DAL. (DAL. by 7)

How the rejuvenated Eagles are this big a dog beats me. I think too many fans and media reps fell so in love with Tony Romo, that they have completely lost sight of how bad the Cowboys have looked at times this year on defense. Giving 7 points away to a divisional rival is far too many IMO, especially one that beat you by 14 pts. already this year. (Yeah, I know, it was BLEDSOE's fault, etc.).

Dallas may win and clinch the division, but Philadelphia has the better momentum it says here. And if the Eagles win outright, they will be in first on tiebreakers (beat DAL. twice) and hold their own fortune in their hands at home vs. Atlanta next week.

And let's remember that the two divisional games Romo has started have both been decided with a late FG (lost 22-19 to WASH., won 23-20 over NYG.).

I gotta take those points here.

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The rest of the games are a mish-mash of too many factors for me to feel comfortable touting.

So, to recap, here are the three I like:

PIT. / N.E. / PHIL.

===

Hopefully, my BEARS play well (even with subs on) and keep everyone healthy. They're going to need them come January. Good luck guys. :ThmbUp:

[boomman]

Pony wrote:

Wow, the wild card playoff spots are a mess with just two weeks left, eh?

Thoughts? Pony: My comments in bold type-Boom

AFC PLAYOFF RACE

(12-2) S.D. [ at SEA.,v. ARIZ.] Cruise Control
(11-3) IND. [ at HOU., v. MIA.] 2nd Seed and Holding
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(11-3) BALT. [ at PIT., v. BUF.] 3rd Seed and Holding
(10-4) N.E. [at JACK.,at TENN.] 4th seed and Holding
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.(8-6) DEN. [ v. CIN., v. S.F.] I believe KC holds tie breaker over them but not positive
.(8-6) CIN. [ at DEN., v. PIT.] CINCY definitely holds tie breaker over KC
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.(8-6) JACK. [ v. N.E. ,at K.C.] 2 tough opponents and one cold weather game doesn't fare well for Jags, could miss
.(8-6) NYJ. [ at MIA. ,v. OAK.] Good chance Jets will lose at Mia
.(7-7) PIT. [ v. BALT.,at CIN.] Probably win 1 of remaining 2 at best
.(7-7) K.C. [ at OAK.,v. JACK.] Could win both, have a chance to sneak in
.(7-7) BUF. [ v.TENN.,at BALT.] Probably win 1 of 2 at best
.(7-7) TENN. [ at BUF., v. N.E.] Same as Buff

NFC PLAYOFF RACE

(12-2) CHI. [ at DET., v. G.B.] Cruise control especially if Grossy continues to improve, but he only had one direction to go! LOL
.(9-5) N.O. [ at NYG., v. CAR.] Too inconsistent to go far, loss to skins @ home was embarrassing
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.(9-5) DAL. [ V. PHIL.,v. DET.] Probably winds up as #2 Seed
.(8-6) SEA. [ V. S.D., at T.B.] Ought to send the NFL Xmas card for getting them out of the AFC West, where they would never even make the play-offs much less go to the Super Bowl
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.(8-6) PHIL. [ at DAL., v. ATL.] Garcia has been a gamer, could continue to surprise
.(7-7) NYG. [ v. N.O.,at WASH.] Gmen are the same ole Gmen
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.(7-7) ATL. [ v. CAR.,at PHIL.] Up and down like a yo-yo
.(6-8) MIN. [ at G.B.,v. St.L.] Plain and simple-Great run D, but no "O"
.(6-8) St.L. [ v.WASH., at MIN.] Pass defense atrocious, shutting out Oak on road shows how really bad Raiders are!
.(6-8) S.F. [ V.ARIZ., at DEN.] Still growing, not good enough yet
.(6-8) G.B. [ v. MIN., at CHI.] Worse pass def than Rams which is hard to believe
.(6-8) CAR. [ at ATL., at N.O.] No shot without the snake (#2) LOL, little chance with him
Last edited by ponyplayerdotca : 12-19-2006 at 04:43 PM.