questions for you pick 3 and pick 4 players

[1st time lasix]

I am an experienced handicapper who generally plays either the win pool or the same race exotics for percieved value { I never use the place or show pools unless I happen to see a bridge jumper in the pools} I am very specific in my perfecta, trifecta and superfecta ticket structure in an attempt to avoid the usual underlays. When I have the form and my other tools well ahead of time.....I have recently been venturing in to the pick 3's and pick 4's. Of course since I want to beat the take out and go home a $ winner....I would like to master the nuiances of this wager as well. Rather than the obvious "avoiding the "odds on" favorite in the first leg" or pass........ I was wondering if there was a diciplined art to the ticket configurations: perhaps several strategies or specific rules to follow. Not much literature for me to read and understand about this "hoizontal " method of exotic wagering. Any suggestions from the experienced here?

[Cesario!]

A good basic introduction was provided by Steven Crist in his recent book. It's not without its shortcomings, but it's a great place to start thinking about them critically.

I reviewed it at my blog this past July:

http://thehandicappinglife.blogspot.com/2006_07_01_archive.html



Seth

[Valuist]

I don't think there's any one answer. I'd been playing P3s for about 15 years now and P4s for about 5-6. Somebody may do something completely contradictory from me and it could work. But here's some things to keep in mind.

1. Handicap beforehand. P3s and P4 betting means you have to not only handicap but anticipate who's going to be overbet without seeing the odds. This is very tough to do if you start looking at the first race of a P3/P4 sequence with 20 minutes to post.

2. Check public handicappers from the DRF or local paper to see who they like. Is there likely to be two overbet favorites? If you like the same horses, the P3/P4 may not be the way to go.

3. Make multiple tickets. Have a key horse for each leg, or at least 2 for a P3 or 3 for a P4. Sometimes there will be a chaos race where you hate all of them. There's no definitive right answer for how many tickets is the right amount. I've gone as deep as 5x5x4 in P3s but that wouldn't be efficient if there were small fields. My general rule of thumb: I like to have at least one leg where I go no more than 2 deep. A 5x5x4 ticket is basically hoping for chaos.

4. Check the late scratches to see if any of the pace scenarios will be affected. There's a huge difference between a race with 3 speedballs and 2. In the win and exacta pools, there's enough time and the crowd usually factors this in by post time. Not so when that race is the 2nd or 3rd race in a P3 sequence.

5. Live also-eligibles who draw in are almost always overlays in the P3s/P4s, especially when they aren't in the first leg. Like point #4, this usually gets factored in pretty good in win pools by post time, but not in the middle or rear legs of multiexotics.

6. I like to avoid the P3s/P4s where there is a "blind" race. A race w/too many first timers or too many layoffs. I don't care if you are the best handicapper and gambler in the world, in these instances we are at a disadvantage to the connections.

I'm not that big a believer in favorites in the opening leg are a good go-against. There's a number of people who spread out in the opening leg, just to make sure they are alive. This is bigger in the P4 than the P3, since most tracks roll their P3s. In these cases, the favorite in the final leg may be overbet.

TVG loves to hype the P4 but it can be a frustrating bet as well. I think my toughest beats this year were P4s where I was alive to several horses with monster will pays only to get beat in the final leg. Sometimes a P3 that is within the P4 sequence gets overlooked by some players, who are unloading into the P4 pool.

I think P3s/P4s are best when your main opinion is that the favorites are overbet, and maybe you don't like anyone specifically but maybe feel that 2-3 horses are overlaid contenders. If you really like a 12-1 shot, bet it to win and only use the P3/P4 as a secondary play. But if you like a 2-1 shot, forget the win pool and look to maximize in the P3/P4 pools.

[schweitz]

Confine your wagering to pick-3's and pick-4's that are made up with races that match your handicapping strengths and to tracks that you are familiar with.

[PriceAnProbability]

I think P3s/P4s are best when your main opinion is that the favorites are overbet, and maybe you don't like anyone specifically but maybe feel that 2-3 horses are overlaid contenders. If you really like a 12-1 shot, bet it to win and only use the P3/P4 as a secondary play. But if you like a 2-1 shot, forget the win pool and look to maximize in the P3/P4 pools.

Why would someone who is going after a p4 care about missing a $26.00 win payoff? Give me a solid 12-1 shot in a p4, and I'll try to take the pool down at a small track or hit a big one at a big track. If I want $26.00 I can get that with an exacta.

[Valuist]

I didn't say not to play the P3/P4. I just said at that price, if you really like the horse, you'll end up pissed off if you come away empty handed and the 12-1 shot wins. And if you're playing a small track, the 12-1 shot may be underlaid anyways in the P4, even if it is a pool shot.

You're comparing win betting to exacta betting which is apples and oranges.

[point given]

I will jump in here, as I am an active p3/4 participant. If you are just starting out in these exotic bets,the previous posters comments are spot on. I would encourage you to start off with the p3 though and play it for a good while until you feel very comfortable with the psychology of the bet. Naturally, you are far more likely to win more often with the 3 than the 4. That said, I would caution you on betting the 3 when a track has rolling daily doubles, as will pays show two legs betting of the p3 sequence. I would also caution you away (personally) from the late p4 at the scal tracks, as I feel they are playing games with the p6 pool which also effects the late p4. Marty Panza at Hollywood has a penchant for carding maiden claiming races as the last leg, to hopefully make it so difficult so as to have a p6 carryover. Not my cup of tea.
I also remember an example of playing the p3 from DRF columnist Dave Litfin, in NY , which is similar to the Crist , Exotic Betting example. The crux of it was to avoid the 3x3x3 bet for $27 in a p3. Rather , you would have an A,B,C matrix. In the 1st leg, put your A horse, 2nd,3rd legs all ABC horses. Do likewise for the other legs of the p3, so if your A horse came in for each race , you would have a $3 p3, rather than $1. Have fun !

[PriceAnProbability]

I didn't say not to play the P3/P4. I just said at that price, if you really like the horse, you'll end up pissed off if you come away empty handed and the 12-1 shot wins. And if you're playing a small track, the 12-1 shot may be underlaid anyways in the P4, even if it is a pool shot.

You're comparing win betting to exacta betting which is apples and oranges.

Why would I be pissed at the 12-1 shot and not the other pigs I put him with?

I'm not "comparing" win and exacta betting other than to say I'm not looking for a $26.00 payoff if I can single a 12-1 shot in a p4 (which is what the win bet is). Every dollar bet to win on the 12-1 shot will generally offer more value directed at the exotics, even with the occasional bad result.

If there is a problem in hitting the p4, that would be a function of one's general handicapping ability.

I had a 44-1 shot dominate a field at Saratoga this summer, and despite blasting him all over the exotics, couldn't hit the exacta, trifecta, two p3s, the middle double, and the p4. I didn't have a dime to win on the horse, and didn't bat an eye. I wasn't looking for the $91.00 he paid to win; I was looking for the $50,000 I would have picked up if I had hit every pool.

I know what you're saying, but crying over a $26.00 winner just because you leveraged his win price in other pools isn't productive and could be very costly if people get scared to aggressively single their longshots.

[Valuist]

Price of Prob-

Yes, theoretically you are right. But psychologically, I don't think most players could single a 44-1 shot, watch it dominate and come away with nothing without feeling sick. I will hedge to other pools, which probably over the long haul doesn't really help the ROI but does help the peace of mind. If you can do that, more power to you.

[PriceAnProbability]

Price of Prob-

Yes, theoretically you are right. But psychologically, I don't think most players could single a 44-1 shot, watch it dominate and come away with nothing without feeling sick. I will hedge to other pools, which probably over the long haul doesn't really help the ROI but does help the peace of mind. If you can do that, more power to you.

Well they say psychology is part of winning, but I'm really not looking for the 12-1 in that situation so I don't really care if it's my only winner out of four. I'm more likely to bet a 9-5 shot to win in order to pay for a big ticket on a p4 than the other way around.

The only time I get emotional about p4 bets is that I tend to add horses in the last leg, so as not to have my ticket destroyed if it is live, but even that has limits. Cash a few big-ticket exotics keyed by a 12-1 shot and you shouldn't have a problem missing the occasional win payoff.

[jma]

Price of Prob-

Yes, theoretically you are right. But psychologically, I don't think most players could single a 44-1 shot, watch it dominate and come away with nothing without feeling sick. I will hedge to other pools, which probably over the long haul doesn't really help the ROI but does help the peace of mind. If you can do that, more power to you.

I agree with this. You may be able to make more money if you hit the Pick 4 with that 12-1 shot, but then again, you might not hit it or you might get favorites in the other legs. I love Pick 4s, but speaking from experience, having a few of those 10-1 winners where you don't get any money back because you screwed up the other legs of the bet can get to you. Next time you might question yourself, and that's the first step to a losing streak. If you're good enough that you can regularly hit the bet anyway and take down the whole pool, then I guess this doesn't apply, but I'm not quite there yet. :)

[Fastracehorse]

I am an experienced handicapper who generally plays either the win pool or the same race exotics for percieved value { I never use the place or show pools unless I happen to see a bridge jumper in the pools} I am very specific in my perfecta, trifecta and superfecta ticket structure in an attempt to avoid the usual underlays. When I have the form and my other tools well ahead of time.....I have recently been venturing in to the pick 3's and pick 4's. Of course since I want to beat the take out and go home a $ winner....I would like to master the nuiances of this wager as well. Rather than the obvious "avoiding the "odds on" favorite in the first leg" or pass........ I was wondering if there was a diciplined art to the ticket configurations: perhaps several strategies or specific rules to follow. Not much literature for me to read and understand about this "hoizontal " method of exotic wagering. Any suggestions from the experienced here?

Or maybe it's not wierd but my best hits in p-3's always come when I have a definitive opinion - ie, a single - even wierder - 2 singles.

It seems that when I am compelled to round-out a p-3 ticket I am more likely to be upset. Of course my singles get beat alot too but the ticket is cheap.

3 keys for me to be successful in p-3's:1) Do the work - so no mistakes; 2) Try and play higher % singles; 3) Have the favorite in the last leg even if U don't like it - I am big on convering and it is near impossible to cover a favorite because it is so expensive.

Here's is an example of a stinging miss:

First leg: singled a 6-1 - it won.

Second leg: contentious - went 1,2,3,4 on 1 ticket and all on a second ( 6 horses ).

3rd leg: 2 and 7 - left out 3rd choice that I thought I should have used and it won.

If the middle leg hadn't been so contentious I could have used all 3 in the last.

It paid $ 150 for a $1 ticket. Depending on how many times U had it - U determine your own cost/benefit ratio.

fffastt

PS,

Remember the probability of winning a p-3 is quite low.

For example: if the probability of winning each leg is 50 % - which is high individually - you have a 12.5 % chance of winning at the start of the wager.
That is why U need value somewhere.

fffastt

[PriceAnProbability]

I agree with this. You may be able to make more money if you hit the Pick 4 with that 12-1 shot, but then again, you might not hit it or you might get favorites in the other legs. I love Pick 4s, but speaking from experience, having a few of those 10-1 winners where you don't get any money back because you screwed up the other legs of the bet can get to you. Next time you might question yourself, and that's the first step to a losing streak. If you're good enough that you can regularly hit the bet anyway and take down the whole pool, then I guess this doesn't apply, but I'm not quite there yet. :)

It takes a lot more than "a few" of those win bets to make up for "one" of the p4s. Do the long-term math and the effect on your ROI is staggering, if you are profitable to begin with, of course.

If I have a live p3 ticket with six combinations and a $91 horse home in the first leg, I did cash in on him in the win pool, but lost the "parlay" in the other legs.

No way would I be satisfied with $91 when all I need in the next leg of the double (or the bottom of the exacta) is an 8-1 shot to get me $1,000 instead.

[linrom1]

TVG hosts are limited to $50 P4, which forces them to pick a single in 1 leg. Their hit rate is exceedingly small: the lesson is unless you want to have a hit rate that is superior, never structure your ticket like that. Using a single in any race sequence is a waste of money in the long run. You can use a single only as a flyer in a contentious race.

Also using that often discussed A x B x C multiple ticket P3 method is also just a waste of money. P3's almost never ofter any value when one favorite wins because that means that almost all P3 players are alive.

[Fastracehorse]

TVG hosts are limited to $50 P4, which forces them to pick a single in 1 leg. Their hit rate is exceedingly small: the lesson is unless you want to have a hit rate that is superior, never structure your ticket like that. Using a single in any race sequence is a waste of money in the long run. You can use a single only as a flyer in a contentious race.

Also using that often discussed A x B x C multiple ticket P3 method is also just a waste of money. P3's almost never ofter any value when one favorite wins because that means that almost all P3 players are alive.

Hit rate can be exceedingly small if return is exceedingly big.

fffastt

[point given]

TVG hosts are limited to $50 P4, which forces them to pick a single in 1 leg. Their hit rate is exceedingly small: the lesson is unless you want to have a hit rate that is superior, never structure your ticket like that. Using a single in any race sequence is a waste of money in the long run. You can use a single only as a flyer in a contentious race.

Also using that often discussed A x B x C multiple ticket P3 method is also just a waste of money. P3's almost never ofter any value when one favorite wins because that means that almost all P3 players are alive.

The A horse one would use in the p3 of ABC multiple tickets need not be a favorite as you suggest. It would be your A choice, and the neat thing about structuring the bet in this way, is that if all your A horses come in you get 3 times the amount for the same amount of money bet. I was just throwing it out to him as an idea , which he could decide upon. For me personally, I usually play a single ticket and not this ABC thingy, as I tried it for a while and never felt comfortable with it, although I do play extra tickets to double up some tickets. And on the one favorite and the value being spoiled , I have noted that while it will lessen the payoff, it depends on which leg the favorite is in. TAke a look at p3's where the 1st leg is a long shot, vs the longshot in the middle or end of the sequence, usually a bit of difference there.

[Light]

Experience is the best teacher. Why dont the originator of this thread and anyone else interested play the pk4 contest currently going on here. You'll see the ticket structure of the leader who hit a $12k pk4. You'll see the ticket structure of the 2nd place guy who hit a pk4 34 times.Thats just in 3 weekends. We still got 3 more months.And past R.U.contests have proved that Andy Beyer was right.Unless you're real good...grinding out small payoffs works psychologically,but not financially.

[PriceAnProbability]

TVG hosts are limited to $50 P4, which forces them to pick a single in 1 leg. Their hit rate is exceedingly small: the lesson is unless you want to have a hit rate that is superior, never structure your ticket like that. Using a single in any race sequence is a waste of money in the long run. You can use a single only as a flyer in a contentious race.

Also using that often discussed A x B x C multiple ticket P3 method is also just a waste of money. P3's almost never ofter any value when one favorite wins because that means that almost all P3 players are alive.

I've hit entire p4 bets cold, or on very low tickets.

I wouldn't even call it "hitting" the best if the ticket was greater than $12 in size.

[keilan]

I've hit entire p4 bets cold, or on very low tickets.

I wouldn't even call it "hitting" the best if the ticket was greater than $12 in size.


You might very well be the best player on this site :sleeping:

[Light]

P&P

Don't get your point? Are you saying that you can hit pk4's on a regular basis with tickets of $12 and under?

[boomman]

1st Time Lasix: Please pardon the shameless plug as I am an everyday pick 3 and Pick 4 player who has recorded my methods in detail in my last book...so as to avoid a long post here you're welcome to check out "my strategies" and what works well for me at the website below should you be so inclined. Good Luck to you in any case!:) Boom

[PriceAnProbability]

P&P

Don't get your point? Are you saying that you can hit pk4's on a regular basis with tickets of $12 and under?

I have a positive ROI with cold and low-volume tickets.

In theory, your cold combinations should be more profitable than any other, so your ROI shouldn't take a hit by not playing more than one.

[keilan]

1st Time Lasix: Please pardon the shameless plug as I am an everyday pick 3 and Pick 4 player who has recorded my methods in detail in my last book...so as to avoid a long post here you're welcome to check out "my strategies" and what works well for me at the website below should you be so inclined. Good Luck to you in any case!:) Boom


I watched your video from your site the other day. You seem like a good cat :) Anyways welcome to the board.

I started a new thread titled "Are you any good". If time allows maybe you'd like to play along.

PriceAnProbability you are also invited to play along as is everyone.

Good luck guys :)

[Light]

I have a positive ROI with cold and low-volume tickets.




Call me skeptical,but I doubt your claim. The reason is because if you are smart enough to hit a substantial number of Pk4's with $12 and under,you would be smart enough to know that you're undermining yourself by not playing Pk6's and cleaning up on them for a few bucks more,and basically retiring.

[PriceAnProbability]

Call me skeptical,but I doubt your claim. The reason is because if you are smart enough to hit a substantial number of Pk4's with $12 and under,you would be smart enough to know that you're undermining yourself by not playing Pk6's and cleaning up on them for a few bucks more,and basically retiring.

You say I'd win more if I were more aggressive, and I say I win at all because I'm not, and because I squeeze the highest value (i.e., the cold combinations) out of my opinions.

You're looking at what we collect, I'm looking at what we tear up. Lots of times I lose $1 where your approach would have cost me $50 or more. That adds up as well.

[Light]

Lots of times I lose $1 where your approach would have cost me $50 or more.

Your "cold" horses are paying so low, that you are losing $1 on pk4's with a $12 max investment.... OOOOO.Kay. If I had a drink,I'd make a toast to you.

[boomman]

Keilan wrote:I watched your video from your site the other day. You seem like a good cat :) Anyways welcome to the board.

I started a new thread titled "Are you any good". If time allows maybe you'd like to play along.

PriceAnProbability you are also invited to play along as is everyone.

Good luck guys :)

Keilan: Thanks very much for the kind words and welcome, and I'm sure you could tell on the video how much I love our sport! My time is very limited over the holidays with family visiting, getting my live plays in, etc, but perhaps down the road when things slow down a bit, I'll play along for sure. All the best, and Happy New Year! Boom

[keilan]

Happy New Year to you -- we'll catch you another time :ThmbUp:

[PriceAnProbability]

Your "cold" horses are paying so low, that you are losing $1 on pk4's with a $12 max investment.... OOOOO.Kay. If I had a drink,I'd make a toast to you.

Who said that my cold horses pay low? They don't. I pick horses of any odds so they will combined that way as well.

I don't lose when I HIT a $12.00 ticket, but the losses add up whenever a big ticket goes down, and they do go down a lot.

[rrbauer]

Who said that my cold horses pay low? They don't. I pick horses of any odds so they will combined that way as well.

I don't lose when I HIT a $12.00 ticket, but the losses add up whenever a big ticket goes down, and they do go down a lot.

Where do you post your picks? I seem to have missed the specifics of your splendid approach to the game. And, I applaud your willingness to counsel the band of losers who hang out at this board.

[speedking]

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/statusicon/post_old.gif 12-19-2006, 12:58 PM #5 (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=338745&postcount=5) PriceAnProbability (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/member.php?u=3251) vbmenu_register("postmenu_338745", true);
Registered User

Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 315
vCash: 3000


Quote:




Why would someone who is going after a p4 care about missing a $26.00 win payoff? Give me a solid 12-1 shot in a p4, and I'll try to take the pool down at a small track or hit a big one at a big track. If I want $26.00 I can get that with an exacta.Well they say psychology is part of winning, but I'm really not looking for the 12-1 in that situation so I don't really care if it's my only winner out of four. I'm more likely to bet a 9-5 shot to win in order to pay for a big ticket on a p4 than the other way around.

The only time I get emotional about p4 bets is that I tend to add horses in the last leg, so as not to have my ticket destroyed if it is live, but even that has limits. Cash a few big-ticket exotics keyed by a 12-1 shot and you shouldn't have a problem missing the occasional win payoff.


I've hit entire p4 bets cold, or on very low tickets.

I wouldn't even call it "hitting" the best if the ticket was greater than $12 in size. [Quote]


Who writes your material? Mike Warren or Norris Strauss? Or are you a plagiarist too?

speedking

[PriceAnProbability]

Where do you post your picks? I seem to have missed the specifics of your splendid approach to the game. And, I applaud your willingness to counsel the band of losers who hang out at this board.

Sarcasm aside, I've outlined my approach before: I make a power rating that reflects the speed figure I believe a horse will run, and convert that figure into a value line.

[rrbauer]

Sarcasm aside, I've outlined my approach before: I make a power rating that reflects the speed figure I believe a horse will run, and convert that figure into a value line.

Sarcasm aside, where do you post your picks?

Sarcasm aside, when betting into downstream legs in P3 and P4 bets how does your power-rating inspired value line produce its "value"?

[PriceAnProbability]

Sarcasm aside, where do you post your picks?

Sarcasm aside, when betting into downstream legs in P3 and P4 bets how does your power-rating inspired value line produce its "value"?

Off the morning line, of course, since I don't have the tote board to use.

I posted picks for years in various places, sold them for a number of years too on and off. Generally good results for the clientele and freeloaders.