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BIG HIT
12-17-2006, 06:17 PM
Hi question is there such a thing as class\figure handicapping?.Reason i ask is year's ago bought a method from a guy who called himself [ uncle al] pick'ed a lot of long shot's i watched for a while bouht a so called seminr from him not bad but i'am not rich ethier.But we had picked the same horse and it won so thought the seminar might just in hance my handicapping i'll say it help but far from what i expected.Any way i ask him why he played that horse and he said figure figure handicapping and he would explain more for a price.Which i didn't buy.This horse as i remenber last race was poor and had a good fig maybe 4 rb race back and a cheap race maiden or alwn1x and the 4rb was past at least 6 mo to 1 yr as i remenber and on just fig might have had top or second best.I know ask this before but we have a lot of new people thought i ask agian.He also used handle on his email was Starkey.

kenwoodallpromos
12-17-2006, 06:58 PM
You can go back aways but you have to look at PP's as a flow chart, nott 1 race at a time, and you should have an idea why a horae is running in the current race.
For example- a straight or MSW maiden means there is hope the horse will be improving and climb to better races, and eventually be bred if not a gelding and the better races and the better Beyers numbers means more $$$ to breed and sell offspring; Beyers numbers are used as a quality rating in breeding and selling; a maiden who goes from a maiden to a maiden claimer is a Rag Bag Nag- expected to decline and will be used to get whatever winnings from purses and bet possible, and to race as long and often as possible until no longer able to race.
That is why there are less and less Allowance races nowadays.
The better claiming handoicappers I know use head-to head and fitness information more than pure speed figures.

BIG HIT
12-17-2006, 07:48 PM
Ya ken you are right in what you say and thank's for your respone's.He made it sound like it was a unike way of comebineing spd fig with class line.As i think back he said the horse was comeing to a race which ment 2 to 4 race's off a layoff.Same like what jerry stoke's say's in he's book. Thank's agian

kenwoodallpromos
12-18-2006, 06:18 AM
I look for win, place, annd show finishes under similar tracks conditions (fast, sloppy, muddy, etc) as expected for the current race, and try to look at other patterns of success:
post position, comments, early fractions, trainer angles, distance.
If a horse was doing well at the current race level several times and all were short fields, low post, routes, in the mud, I may like the horse if the current race is the same; but if toaday's race is 10 horses, this horse is post #8, fast track, sprint, and the best the horse could do in that case is 5th, no bet!!
Longshots often will pop once in a while in the exact situation as it did before, maybe back to the same jockey and claimed back to the same trainer.
I can often find a big favorite who wins a lot but under tosay's conitions. Proud Accolade was 1-9 in the mud in KY with Bailey, so I bet all 10 other horses (that PA and Bailey would come in 2nd or worse) on a strange track in bad weather. Second favorite was 11-1 and other 9 were longer odds so I won $78.00! Easy money!!
I call looking for similar winning situations "Situation Handicapping" and looking for "Patterns of Success".
Speed figures are OK but they are for owners and breeders! pace figures or fractional times I like more. The more even fractions a horse runs the better I like it- it means the horse does not slow down. Giacomo and Smarty Jopnes are good examples (except in the Belmont!!LOL!!)
_________________
Equibase speed figures are used in this country just like Intenational Workd Rankings are in others:

"An International Classification of the best three years old and four years old and upwards having run in 1977 in France, Great Britain and Ireland was published for the first time in December 1977.
This classification has been designated :
to stimulate interest in high class racing, both nationally and internationally,
to provide an accurate and impartial basis for ****assesment and valuation of horses,
****to give breeders more accurate criteria for selection than was available,
to provide means of estimating improvement or deterioration of thoroughbred performance in the leading European countries over a period of years."

joeparr
12-18-2006, 09:09 AM
50 some odd years ago I first stated playing the ponies and when I asked the old timers how can you tell class they said buy money earned , they had some kind of formula. Anyone ever use that system of finding class?...joe

Bruddah
12-18-2006, 11:44 AM
This formula was taught to me by an old timer, when I first started as a kid, in the 1960's. Each Win = 6 points, Place = 2 points, Show 1 point. Any combination of 2 4ths or 2 5ths or combination of a 4th or 5th place finish = 1 point.

Go back through the horses PP's and add up the points for 4th and 5th place finishes. Add those to the points for Win, Place, Show and divide it into the money won = Money class for the horse.

Note exceptions: Where horse has run strictly in State Bred races, unless todays race is for state breds. ( Purses tend to be inflated)

Example horses points = 20pts. Money earned = $22,000
Horses money class is $1100 Now compare each contenders Money Class

I think, this system was more meaningful 'back in the day'. Primarily because, there were less inflated purses for certain races. However, it still leads me to many over looked longshots. :jump:

arno
12-18-2006, 02:49 PM
Class can be determined by an equation called average purse value (APV)


APV = ((.6*number of wins for the year) + (.2* number of places for the year) + (.1* number of shows for the year)) / earnings.

The higher the APv the classier the horse.

Can be used for turf races by just inputting turf races.

Sometimes can be sweked when a horse wins a state bred stakes.

Tom
12-18-2006, 06:06 PM
When it comes to class, I prefer to follow the advice of James Qinn in his Handicapper's Condition Book. Horses have several paths of developement and Quinn describes them quite nicely. Combine those ides with par times and pace evaluation, some evaluaiton of how easily or hard the horse passed thorugh his conditions, and you can have a good handle on the horese's class.
The first weekend of the RidersUp cohntest featured a horse who had run well a couple back, was soundly beaten in open company, and dropped today to NW lifetime claimers. On paper, and figs, he did not look all that impressive, but the call drop was significant and his past races, agains better, had to be given more credit than the recent losses of others in NW company. He paid like $18.

One of the biggest drop at FL is ALw NW4 to 10,000 NW4 - huge drop.

Overlay
12-18-2006, 08:03 PM
In Winning at the Races, Quirin compared common earnings-related class gauges (total earnings from the previous year and the current year; average earnings-per-start (based on six or more starts in the current year, or, if less than six starts in the the current year, based on starts and earnings from the current year and the previous year combined); and average purse). He ranked horses in a field 1/2/3/Front Half (but not in Top 3)/Rear Half on each of the measures, with the following resulting impact values:

Total Earnings

1.41
1.32
1.14
.97
.84

Average Earnings-per Start

1.82
1.36
1.22
.95
.69

Average Purse

1.09
1.23
1.25
1.05
.87


Mike Nunamaker's findings in Modern Impact Values (fifteen years later) were as follows:

Total Earnings

1.72
1.44
1.22
.87
.73

Average Earnings-per-Start

1.98
1.46
1.24
.84
.67

Average Purse:

1.52
1.26
1.27
.92
.79

Some commentators I've read (Ainslie, for example) insisted that, following the advent of inflated purses for state-bred races in the 1980's, anyone who continued to rely on earnings data for purposes of class evaluation would be "doomed", but you can't tell that from the above figures.

PlanB
12-18-2006, 08:09 PM
If what many of you say about Avg Earnings then maybe it's time for the DRF to update is money data. Maybe the DRF should make the data better? 4th/5th places? Taking AWAY the NY bonus money? I don't know, but if AE has any shot the data-keeper should make it available.

Overlay
12-18-2006, 08:16 PM
I don't know, but if AE has any shot the data-keeper should make it available.

The two-year summary of a horse's finishes that the Form publishes may only include wins, places, and shows, but, as far as I know, the earnings that are listed are from all the horse's finishes, not just those where the horse was in the top three. All you need to do to get the average earnings-per-start is to divide the horse's listed earnings by the horse's number of starts for the period in question.

PlanB
12-18-2006, 08:23 PM
Aha, very informative. ALL earnings, but ONLY Wins to Shows numbered. Why not end the suspense & just print the AE with one entry?

douglasw32
12-18-2006, 09:58 PM
I have a simple way that I think works well for class of the race...

I take the speed figure (and some research on the beaten lengths adj depending on the data provider)

Add up the beaten lengths of the winner, 2nd horse and 3rd horse multiply it by the providers btnlgths adj 2, 2.5 3 etc depending on distance etc.

add that into the speed figure for the horse.


Thats it

bellsbendboy
12-18-2006, 10:05 PM
Class starts at conception. For older, cheaper claimers on the turf, earnings per turf start, occasionally contains some value. The arithmetic on this thread will pick some winners...so will betting on the six horse. BBB

Tom
12-18-2006, 10:50 PM
What's the I.V. on the six?

kenwoodallpromos
12-19-2006, 06:31 AM
Beyer already gives higher numbers for higher class level races- so what you can do is muultiply Beyer rating by number of furlongs in the race.
100 Beyer for 10f is 1,000; 80 Beyer for 8f is 640; 60 Beyer for 6f is 360.
Therefore horse is judged on speed/level, and distance of race.
If you want you can even subtract points for how far in the past the race was= subtract 100 points for each 3 months back the race was run.

mhrussell
12-19-2006, 06:27 PM
BRIS has a very good class rating; comparable between both US and Foreign horses. Available in their Ultimate PPs and "Multi" data file formats. It's the one rating I miss most of all when I converted over to PTS data files.

Big Bill
12-19-2006, 08:13 PM
BRIS has a very good class rating; comparable between both US and Foreign horses. Available in their Ultimate PPs and "Multi" data file formats. It's the one rating I miss most of all when I converted over to PTS data files.

Matt,

When you were still using BRIS did you only use the class rating in your handicapping, or did you also use the race rating? The explanation on use of the race and class ratings provided on in the BRIS Library leaves a lot to be desired IMHO.

Big Bill

mhrussell
12-20-2006, 11:41 AM
Big Bill-

No, I did not use their Race Rating much. I have my own way to rate/consider the class level of races.