Beyer Final Times

[jagr]

Does anyone have an opinion on the comparability of equal Beyer final figures for two different classes at the same distance, surface and track? eg: A $32,000 and a $16,000 race at 6F with the same Beyer figure of say 70. Without regard for each horse's speed figure histories or other details, should I consider the higher class 70 to be of greater value of the two or is a 70 a 70 regardless of class it was earned at?

What I'm trying to decide is a 72 at $16,000 really better than say a 70 at $32,000?

jagr

[46zilzal]

horses run to their capabilities, form cycle and pace stress INDPENDENT of any man-made class structure. One sees them go Up and DOWN this man made ladder all the time.....They simply run and don't know what others they are running against.

as CJ has pointed out, a very slow early pace can give a horse an inflated final time since there was no early pace stress......Investigate what the horse ran against before accepting a high number.

[chickenhead]

What I'm trying to decide is a 72 at $16,000 really better than say a 70 at $32,000?

jagr

Your asking the wrong question. A speed figure only attempts to measure how fast a horse ran. I higher number always means the horse ran faster.

What you need to be interested in are the reasons the horses ran as fast (or slow) as they did, and the reasons they might run faster or slower today.

Pace
Track
Trip
etc.

[cj]

Based on what you are asking, the 72 is better than the 70 according to Beyer. Now, you could have the 72 earned setting a :45 second pace on an easy lead, while the 70 was earned setting a :44 pace dueling three wide. But as asked, the 72 is about 1 length better than the 70.

[Indulto]

Based on what you are asking, the 72 is better than the 70 according to Beyer. Now, you could have the 72 earned setting a :45 second pace on an easy lead, while the 70 was earned setting a :44 pace dueling three wide. But as asked, the 72 is about 1 length better than the 70.Would this be a good example for explaining how to use your Pace Figures?

[chickenhead]

cjs quantify that pace with the pace figure, and encapsulate the pace and final in the perf figure...so the horse that went in :44 would have a higher pace figure, and a subsequently higher performance figure than the horse that went in :45. (assuming equal pace variants)

there are other reasons they work so well (better variants, and a brilliant method of changing the weighting of pace and final depending on circumstances)...but the performance fig is a pace adjusted final time, and it just plain works.

in other words, it would be obvious who ran the better race using cjs.

[Indulto]

cjs quantify that pace with the pace figure, and encapsulate the pace and final in the perf figure...so the horse that went in :44 would have a higher pace figure, and a subsequently higher performance figure than the horse that went in :45. (assuming equal pace variants)

there are other reasons they work so well (better variants, and a brilliant method of changing the weighting of pace and final depending on circumstances)...but the performance fig is a pace adjusted final time, and it just plain works.

in other words, it would be obvious who ran the better race using cjs.Thanx, C-HD,
I look forward to the day when cjs are at least as much a part of the vernacular as Beyers. ;)

[chickenhead]

I look forward to the day when cjs are at least as much a part of the vernacular as Beyers. ;)

I don't!

[Indulto]

I don't!Helped to pick that life-changing Pick Six, have they?

[jagr]

Thanks for the replies on understanding final Beyer times. I realize now that the factors responsible for the final times are as important as the actual final times.

jagr

[chickenhead]

Helped to pick that life-changing Pick Six, have they?

nope, still have to settle for taking my profits in installments.

[BIG RED]

Thanks for the replies on understanding final Beyer times. I realize now that the factors responsible for the final times are as important as the actual final times.

jagr

It is supposedly incorparated into the figures (Beyers), class included, but they are sometimes misleading, usually on an easy win.
(spell check lol)

[PriceAnProbability]

What I'm trying to decide is a 72 at $16,000 really better than say a 70 at $32,000? jagr

Beyer would say yes, and Ainslie would say no.

[classhandicapper]

Typically, the pace will be faster as you move up the class ladder (on average). So if horses in very different classes earn similar speed figures, the one that earned his figure in the higher quality race will tend to be the better horse if he was close to the pace. If you have a good set of pace figures, it will help you get more specific.

The other issue is one of accuracy. We all like to think that the figures we work with are always accurate. But anyone that has ever made them understands how wind, moisture, track maintenace, starting gate placement, rough starts and a whole bunch of other factors can make it difficult to create accurate figures all the time. My experience suggests that if a horse in a weak class earns a very fast figure for the class and one a high high class earns a low figure for the class (making them equal), it's more likely there is an error that is underrating the high class horse than the other way around. Identifying "suspect" figures is a skill all by itself.

Finally, as you move up in class, the horses tend to have more ability. That can create more competitive races and rougher trips which can impact times a bit.

Summed up, given two horses with equal figures I would always prefer the horse that earned it in a much tougher field as the one "more likely to win".

[jagr]

Indulto,

What are cjs and where are they available?

jagr

[Indulto]

Indulto,

What are cjs and where are they available?

jagrI refer you to the poster, cj, or to chickenhead who first used that term in this thread.

[PriceAnProbability]

Typically, the pace will be faster as you move up the class ladder (on average). So if horses in very different classes earn similar speed figures, the one that earned his figure in the higher quality race will tend to be the better horse if he was close to the pace. If you have a good set of pace figures, it will help you get more specific.

The other issue is one of accuracy. We all like to think that the figures we work with are always accurate. But anyone that has ever made them understands how wind, moisture, track maintenace, starting gate placement, rough starts and a whole bunch of other factors can make it difficult to create accurate figures all the time. My experience suggests that if a horse in a weak class earns a very fast figure for the class and one a high high class earns a low figure for the class (making them equal), it's more likely there is an error that is underrating the high class horse than the other way around. Identifying "suspect" figures is a skill all by itself.

Finally, as you move up in class, the horses tend to have more ability. That can create more competitive races and rougher trips which can impact times a bit.

Summed up, given two horses with equal figures I would always prefer the horse that earned it in a much tougher field as the one "more likely to win".

The higher-class field is also deeper, which means that after dueling with a higher-figure frontrunner, you then have to deal with the higher-figure closers.

Lost in the Fog was a great throwout in the BC Sprint because of that. He had never faced a field with more than two horses with 100+ Beyers, and suddenly faced a dozen of them. It showed.