Odds Line Calculator

[cj]

This is an Excel spreadsheet. It runs a 1,000 race simulation based on what is entered. Instructions are contained in the sheet, and are pretty self explanatory. You can enter up to four different categories, or just enter a fixed win % for a horse, or a combination of both.

http://www.pacefigures.com/simulator.xls

[traveler]

Thank You CJ.

[DanG]

An early present from CJ.

Thanks very much!:ThmbUp:

[csmith]

Thanks very much CJ Your work is much appreciated by me



Cliff

[turfeyejoe]

I have a question about which figures to use to achieve optimum results. I'm working with the Beyer Figures from DRF. My inclination is to use only figures that are relevent to today's race (i.e. turf figs for turf races, dirt route figs for dirt route races). Right now, I'm using the last race Beyer, the best recent Beyer, and the next best Beyer from the last 6-8 starts with weights 40-40-20.
Does anyone out there who has used this software have suggestions?

[cj]

I made it very generic so you can use anything you like. I use my own figures in various combinations, depending on class of the race, the surface, distance, and age of the horses.

[Overlay]

I have a question about which figures to use to achieve optimum results. I'm working with the Beyer Figures from DRF. My inclination is to use only figures that are relevent to today's race (i.e. turf figs for turf races, dirt route figs for dirt route races). Right now, I'm using the last race Beyer, the best recent Beyer, and the next best Beyer from the last 6-8 starts with weights 40-40-20.
Does anyone out there who has used this software have suggestions?

I don't know what combination any particular program may use, but Mike Nunamaker got very good results at one time (smooth impact value progression coupled with a comparatively high maximum and a comparatively low minimum), based on ranking a field 1, 2, 3, Front Half (but not in Top 3), Rear Half, by taking the average of the Beyers from those races out of a horse's last three starts that were run on the same surface as today's race (dirt or turf)(even if that meant using only one race to calculate the average). If none of the horse's last three races were run on the same surface as today's race, he used all three to calculate the average. If the horse had raced less than three times, he used the average from those races that it had run on today's surface or, again, if none of the horse's available races had been run on today's surface, he used all the available races to calculate the average. (This was before the introduction of Polytrack, which I assume he would regard as a third surface category needing its own separate set of impact values.)

[robert99]

This is an Excel spreadsheet. It runs a 1,000 race simulation based on what is entered. Instructions are contained in the sheet, and are pretty self explanatory. You can enter up to four different categories, or just enter a fixed win % for a horse, or a combination of both.

http://www.pacefigures.com/simulator.xls

cj,

Thank you for the program. Perhaps I am a bit slow, but could you give a worked example so that I can understand the input instructions better?
You are using weighting percentages and also percentages of a 100% book??

[cj]

You have four columns for figures. You assign a percentage for any/all of the columns you want to use. The percentage must add up to 100 for it to work properly. As an example, for maiden claiming races, I use an Early Speed Rating for 40%, Final Rating for 30%, Best Final Rating at the Distance 20%, and Best Lifetime Rating 10%. You then enter the value of one length in your figures. For me, the early speed rating is about 3.5, the others are 2.0. This can be adapted for any figures. If you used The Sheets or Thorograph, you would have to invert the numbers, such as subtracting them all from 50 or something similar, so the bigger is better.

Now, move to the horses.

You have two options for each horse. You can either:



Assign a fixed percentage. This comes in handy for first time starters, first off the claim, first turf, ect.
Use figures for the horse, from 1 to 4. If you don't want to use one, just leave it blank for that horse.
Once done, just press Control and M at the same time to run the script. Anytime you make a change, run the script again for an update.



Here is one example from today, 2nd at Beu...I wasn't playing. :(




http://www.pacefigures.com/images/OddsTool.jpg



The figures I used are here:



http://www.pacefigures.com/Beu061219.htm

[robert99]

cj,

Thanks for your kind help.

[levinmpa]

CJ. This looks great. I was looking at a thread by Swetyejohn who posted a program called MonteCarloProbs that creates an odds line based on figures that are entered for each entrant. They talked a lot about Standard Deviation in that thread. Is a Standard Deviation incorporated into your spreadsheet? If so, what is the SD set to? Just curious.

Thanks. ML

[cj]

The deviation would be 3.5 times whatever the value of one length is set to equal.