Poly to Turf

[classhandicapper]

I haven't been playing much on the artificial surfaces. It seems clear to me that horses moving from turf to poly do better than horses moving from turf to dirt, but what about horses that moved up on poly? Are they holding their better form fairly well when they go to the turf for the first time?

[bellsbendboy]

Your inquiry is a bit cryptic. Cogently, horses going turf to poly get a whole lot less kickback, and therefore can finish. As far as any handicapper, using turf to dirt as an angle, they are almost certainly late paying their rent. BBB

[robert99]

UK experience is that horses running on polytrack in early spring have done very well on turf, when the turf season opens - winning races up to Group class. The trainers have turf and polytrack training gallops so will know what suits their horse - this may be behind the turf success. The polytrack just being used as a benign surface to get horses race fit for the big turf races.

[cj]

Last night at Hollywood, there were two very nice winners with the fake to turf angle. One paid $9 and one paid $12.80. Both came in with fake surface numbers that made them strong contenders if repeated on grass. Neither had run on grass before.

[Robert Fischer]

Along the lines of what Robert99 said...

You often see Turf horses train primarily on dirt. Possibly a conditioning benefit?? I really am speculating here, but a Turf horse may train (and prep) even better on AWT.

As far as horse who "moved up" over the AWT, from his dirt form, and now tries turf for the first time (or gives turf a try again from a while back) -- I think a thorough examination of the individual specific situation is called for. If you want a general opinion, then I am more comfortable assuming a continuation of form at lower Class levels. Beyond that I want to be familar with the horses pedigree. This horses running style, and the expected running styles of his opposition... etc...

for example is this a 6f turf sprint out west where we will get blazing fractions and minuscule final time? If so do I believe this horse has that much speed today, wondering if his slower AWT fractions and front running style will lead to being outrun today?

OR: cheap turf race at 8.5f. One or two real competitors, and the final time is somewhere in the 143-145 range. Our horse today should win with his strong AWT form and stalking running style...


general notes-
wary of horses who closed from the clouds at keeneland. Many horses closed better at Keeneland AWT then on Turf (or dirt).

always like to see a horse be competitive for several races, it seems to build good habits. It can't be a negative if the horse is bringing in great AWT form into todays Turf Race, (relative to his mediocre dirt form several races back)...

[classhandicapper]

Last night at Hollywood, there were two very nice winners with the fake to turf angle. One paid $9 and one paid $12.80. Both came in with fake surface numbers that made them strong contenders if repeated on grass. Neither had run on grass before.

I was playing Holywood last night and happened to notice one of them right after I posted the question. ;)

I've seen fewer horses like that.

I've mostly been seeing dirt horses move to fake and turf horses move to fake. What I haven't seen much of is dirt horses that moved to fake and then to turf or horses that started on fake and then moved to turf. I think it will be the rarer move for awhile and could make for some interesting plays, but I am behind the learning curve on this stuff because I mostly play NY.

[cj]

Currently only Hol and WO have both. I imagine there were some TP Poly to CD/ElP turf moves, but I'd have to go back as I don't recall seeing many. WO didn't run very long on both at the same time.

[classhandicapper]

Right now I don't have to contend with these issues very often in NY, but over time as more tracks switch, there will be more and more shippers into NY that
fall into these categories even if NY stays traditional for awhile.

I manage to avoid the issue a bit when I play in CA by focusing on other things (I bet against the McAnally FTS in the 8th because he's ice cold and has a terrible record with FTS)