Poly is Safer

[Mr. Nobody]

Ran some stats today on horses that were listed as "Eased" or "Pulled Up" or "Broke Down" since about the beginning of October.

All Surfaces: 421 of 34566 starters or 1.21%
All Dirt: 328/20423 or 1.6%
All Turf: 49/5672 or 0.86%
All Poly: 49/8471 or 0.58%

From Safest to Least Safe:

KEE (Poly) 1/1384 0.072%
TP (Poly) 3/1099 0.27%
HAW (Dirt)17/3336 0.51%
CD (Dirt) 9/1747 0.52%
WO (Poly) 26/4383 0.59%
SA (Dirt) 14/1201 1.17%
HOL (Poly) 19/1605 1.18%
AQU (Inner) 13/940 1.38%
BEL (Dirt) 13/895 1.45%
AQU (Main) 21/1304 1.61%
CRC (Dirt) 75/3050 2.46%

These are fairly small samples, but they suggest that Poly is safer than dirt and that Holywood's Cushion Track is suspect. Also that there's no reason to run the KY Derby on Poly anytime soon.

[Valuist]

The biggest shock is Hawthorne is the 3rd safest. Its noted for being very hard and unforgiving to horses. Maybe its all the chemical junk they put on the track to keep it from freezing.

[jma]

I'm not arguing with the overall point, but Turfway did have horses break down in the 10th on Friday and the 1st on Saturday. After the Saturday breakdown, there was a delay in racing for track maintenance (I believe the track was watered). Though Polytrack might be safer, you can't prevent all breakdowns with it, and there are still stretches when the track can get dangerous if not maintained properly. I don't think tracks should rush to put in artificial surfaces unless they are having major problems with breakdowns (Arlington and Del Mar last year?) or regularly race at night in cold weather...but as we know, the rush is already on.

[kenwoodallpromos]

DM and Arlington were not included on the list of breakdowns, etc since it only included from the 1st of Oct. Otherwise, dirt would show a much higher %. Your numbers show few Nov or Dec turf races- not surprising, so it is dirt Vs. AW. I think AW duid surpeisingly well considering WOodbine and Hollywood at times are running their tracks as fast as they are.
CRC did not surprise me, as deep as it is.
This report upholds older studies that show on dirt, where there is less soft of a landing for legs than either well maintained turf or AW, too hard OR too soft is worse than moderate composition and mainainence.

[stlseeeek]

i dont know, i always kinda looked as hawthorne surface as fairmount park, but a little faster.

which is why many fp horses run well there, and ship well.



always thought of it as a deep,sandy,giving surface. now when it gets cold up there, they always said it got fast and hard, but its been a lame fall



1:12 4/5 -1:14 was kinda the norm for 6

[rrpic6]

Mr. Nobody:

Can you get any stats on breakdowns at Mountaineer? Their surface is about as safe as a road in Baghdad.

[Valuist]

If I remember correctly, when Turfway decided to put the Polytrack in back in 2005, their rationale was they would lose less racing days due to cancellations. They never talked about reducing injuries. It wasn't until the first winter meet was over that we heard about the reduced number of breakdowns. The numbers were pretty impressive, considering the low quality of horses that run there in the winter.

While it seems ideal for TP, hopefully tracks like Sar and CD will hold off before rushing to make the change to go synthetic.

[Valuist]

i dont know, i always kinda looked as hawthorne surface as fairmount park, but a little faster.

which is why many fp horses run well there, and ship well.



always thought of it as a deep,sandy,giving surface. now when it gets cold up there, they always said it got fast and hard, but its been a lame fall



1:12 4/5 -1:14 was kinda the norm for 6

Last Wed:

2nd race M10s went 1:15 2/5 for 6 1/2, not 6f.
8th race open 14K went 1:08 3/5 for 6f.

[stlseeeek]

when they go 1:08 at hawthorne, watch out


what the hell are they doing to the track??


trainers cant be happy

[DeadCrab]

Horses may be eased or pulled up for a variety of reasons, including bleeding, flipped palate, being hopelessly beaten, and for non-serious injuries. Many serious injuries occur in horses that do finish the race.

The key stats are catastrophic breakdowns and injuries that require a long recovery time. The former would be reflected in the chart, the latter would not be.