Track question - Zia Park vs Turf Paradise

[Robert Fischer]

How would you compare the general quality level between Turf Paradise and Zia Park ?

I am looking at a horse who just broke maiden mdn 23k at Zia, and is now facing winners in a tough race at Turf Paradise.

Question is for anyone, also I remember someone here that worked with Zia Park, couldn't find it on the search.

[boomman]

As someone who called races at Albuquerque for almost 20 years and sees a lot of the horses from TuP every summer at Yavapai, I think I can help you out on this question. The purses are inflated at The New Mexico Tracks because of slot machine revenue, so other than horses who run well in the winter meet at Sunland, (where a lot of elite barns show up) I would say the Zia horses are definitely a level or two under the TuP horses (who get a lot of tough outfits that ship-in from Emerald Downs in Seattle as their meet ends when Turf starts) as well as many horses from the very tough California circuit. Boom

[Tom]

My db shows 50 shippers from ZIA to TUP, with a rcords of 50 3-7-8

The winners paid $60,$50, and $5.

[Que]

I estimate that a horse at TUP would be about 4 1/4 lengths faster (normalized for 6 furlongs) than a horse at ZIA Park at the same claiming level. The above estimate is based on my class ratings (see below) for male, three year olds and up, open claiming races.

Clm TUP ZIA Delta Approx. Length Difference
5000 1004 959 45 4.0
7500 1040 994 47 4.2
10000 1060 1012 48 4.3
12500 1072 1024 48 4.3
20000 1090 1041 49 4.4

[Robert Fischer]

Wow!
Well done by all.

[Que]

Some recent shippers (claimers only)...

TRK DATE RACE HORSE CLM$ FNBL LTRK LCLM$ LFNBL
TUP 10/17/2006 9 Kates Quiet Cowboy 3.5K 11 ZIA 8K 13.5
TUP 10/28/2006 4 Cahill in Vogue 6K 19.2 ZIA 5K 25.5
TUP 10/29/2006 4 Pancho 8K 12.5 ZIA 12.5K 40.5
TUP 11/4/2006 4 Madeittothemoon 3K 6.25 ZIA 7.5K 4.5
TUP 11/5/2006 6 Delineatorsvictory 10K 17.5 ZIA 12.5K DNF
TUP 11/10/2006 1 Walking Over 3.5K 19 ZIA 5K 15.5
TUP 11/19/2006 4 Lady Lombardia 3.2K 4 ZIA 5K 8.5
TUP 11/24/2006 8 Postings 10K 0.75 ZIA 12.5K 20

[cj]

According to Beyer pars, the tracks are basically even.

[ryesteve]

According to Beyer pars, the tracks are basically even.
But isn't that more a comparison of the relative speeds of the racing surface, not necessarily the quality of the horses running over it?

[cj]

But isn't that more a comparison of the relative speeds of the racing surface, not necessarily the quality of the horses running over it?

No, these are speed figure pars, which take into account track speed.

[njcurveball]

So would you be comfortable you could claim a horse for $10,000 at Zia and be competitive running for $10,000 at Turf Paradise?

[cj]

I would only claim a 10,000 horse at Zia if I thought he could win for 15,000 at TuP or anywhere else for that matter.

For the record, I said they were Beyer pars, not my own.

[Que]

Regardless of what the Beyer Pars are... I'd still estimate that a 10,000 Clm'r at TuP would beat a 10,000 Clm'r at ZIA by about 4 lengths.

[stu]

I am curious.

How did that Zia shipper do at Tup?

stu

[Dave Schwartz]

FWIW, we have the following relative levels:

102.67 - TUP
98.04 - ZIA

About 4.6 lengths difference.



Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[PriceAnProbability]

FWIW, we have the following relative levels:

102.67 - TUP
98.04 - ZIA

About 4.6 lengths difference.



Regards,
Dave Schwartz

That's 11 Beyer points for a simple ship, since Beyer rates them roughly even.

[Robert Fischer]

I am curious.

How did that Zia shipper do at Tup?

stu

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/instant_pdf.cgi?type=inc&country=USA&track=TUP&date=2006-12-11&race=3

Shes Outrageous #6

she was up fairly close early raced a bit wide finished 5th about 11lengths back. Got outrun a bit. I was looking to exclude her, as she had just broke maiden by a narrow margin at Zia in what was her best run to date. This race "today" was a decent race vs winners with a strong favorite(who won), and she should have been over her head. I wasn't familiar with the shipping angle, and didn't want to be surprised!

[stu]

During the 2005-2006 meet, Zia shippers were more successful at Sunland Park than those from Turf Paradise.

TUP-> SUN 36: 1 9 5 (2.8%)
ZIA-> SUN 682: 74 78 76 (10.9%)

As I said I am biased, I just finished the meet at Zia as the assistant racing secretary.

stu

[Dave Schwartz]

Stu's point is probably well taken. It is a complicated problem to figure out.

It appears that the relationship between tracks can be very subtle... as if there is a "shipping threshold" at each track-pair.

I did a study of shippers between tracks several years ago and found like 5% correlation until I made it class-sensitive. Then I found that the issue was not always the lower class track shipping to the higher class! Sometimes the downward ship is a bad thing, especially at the higher claiming levels.

But most thresholds are logical.

For example, I found that track B (lower class) could ship to track A (a higher track) competitively up to (say) a 101 class level (i.e. $12,500clm), while Track C might be able to ship to track A up to level 99 (i.e. $8,000clm).

To further complicate issues, it appears that all shippers go upward better when it is during their home meet as opposed to after the meet has closed. In other words, Zia-to-TuP is better while the Zia meet is still running.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[PriceAnProbability]

Stu's point is probably well taken. It is a complicated problem to figure out.

It appears that the relationship between tracks can be very subtle... as if there is a "shipping threshold" at each track-pair.

I did a study of shippers between tracks several years ago and found like 5% correlation until I made it class-sensitive. Then I found that the issue was not always the lower class track shipping to the higher class! Sometimes the downward ship is a bad thing, especially at the higher claiming levels.

But most thresholds are logical.

For example, I found that track B (lower class) could ship to track A (a higher track) competitively up to (say) a 101 class level (i.e. $12,500clm), while Track C might be able to ship to track A up to level 99 (i.e. $8,000clm).

To further complicate issues, it appears that all shippers go upward better when it is during their home meet as opposed to after the meet has closed. In other words, Zia-to-TuP is better while the Zia meet is still running.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

I don't see how there is much difference between the two tracks, as they appear to be like Philadelphia Park and Penn National. Philadelphia is a little stronger, but lots of trainers routinely ship back and forth. There may be other factors at work, including the condition book.