Attn: PACE USERS

[Derek2U]

Yesterday, Belmont's 10th was WON by BIG FAV, Gander.
Gander's Last Race was against Lido Palace --- a Frankel known
Grade 1 winner. But my question is this: If you were to pace-rate
Gander's last race against Lido -- and let's say didnt know it was
Won by Lido in a thrilling stretch-run by less than 1 length -- would a PACE NUMERICAL ANALYSIS shouted: "BIG RACE."
Or, is knowledge of just who was in that race a substitute for
the need to Pace-Rate at all?
And --- Question #2, again about Pace, but totally different,
was yesterdays 9th Race at Belmont, won by Quiet Ruler at
45:1 --- a Turf at 1-1/8. It's NOT the fact that this horse won,
but it's the manner of the race's running: I, like almost every1
else, spotted Reluctant Groom as the ONLY Early Speed. Now,
admittedly he does Quit many times, but look at this pace figs:
26.47/53.24/1:18.72/1:43.09/1:55.16 ..... those fractions
for a $150K race! Now, pace-setting Reluctant Groom came in
LAST ... holding a lead until the Stretch Call. Can anyone shed
light on this pace scenario?
(I am trying to do more pace work this year & I would find any
insights into it truly helpful.) Thanks.

[aaron]

The fractions of a race on a yeilding turf can be very mislesding.First,it is really hard to judge what is a fast fraction and what is not.If we say Relunctant Groom's fractions were slow,then he probably let the closers get into the race and outkick him in the final furlong.
In reality,the fractions were probably a bit slow or else Whitmore's Conn might have won or been closer.As for the winner he looked liked he just loved the track.In any case it would have been hard to make a case for Relunctant Groom.

[GameTheory]

My homemade figs didn't point to anyone in particular in the 9th.

In the 10th however, Gander was a clear standout, towering over the field on the numbers...

[rrbauer]

I have found that speed numbers on soft and yielding turf don't crossover to firm turf and so when handicapping firm turf I draw a line through soft/yielding pp lines. At the same time when handicapping soft/yielding turf the first thing that I look for is how a horse has handled that surface in the past. Big Beyer numbers on soft/yielding turf are misleading and usually overstate horses' ability (speed wise) compared to the same horses' firm turf races.

[GR1@HTR]

Speaking of Pace...I think J. Chavez killed Lido Palace yesterday in a CLF race....Did anybody else think that was nutty of him to send LP to the front w/ 23.6 and 46.14 fractions? LP runs his best in a stalking position. This horse is dead/done for the year thanks to Chavez....Don't bet this thing next out...

[cj]

GR1,

He is not the same horse he was last year, and yesterday's race certainly couldn't have helped! I thought the connections were right to bypass the BC, and yesterday validified that for sure.

CJ

[GR1@HTR]

Yeah, he was on top beating that poor ole horse like it was a pinata full of spare coins....

[122425]

YEAH BUT TALK ABOUT CLASS!!!
GRIFFINITI SHOULD HAVE WALTZED BY LIDO WITH HIS MOMENTUM, BUT WHEN HE GOT UP NEXT TO HIM AND EYEBALLED EACH OTHER, HE SPIT THE BIT!!!

[Derek2U]

I bet Griffinite yesterday at 13:1 & I was sure, watching the
race, that he would get past Lido no problem. hehe ... my
reasoning went like this: What the H was Lido doing in a
race with a purse of 56K ... tuning up, of course ... and so,
I reasoned, Lido would never go ALL OUT to win this cheap race.
hehe .... I think Chavez did Lido a great dis-service.

[122425]

DEREK2U
I THOUGHT YOU WERE A WINNER ALSO!!
HE LOOKED LIKE HE HAD HIM IN HIS SIGHTS

[Jeff P]

Now, pace-setting Reluctant Groom came in
LAST ... holding a lead until the Stretch Call. Can anyone shed
light on this pace scenario?

One important question that you have to ask yourself when analyzing a pace scenario is this: Just what kind of surface are they running on?

From watching Belmont's turf races over the past few weeks (I play only on weekends) I would have to conclude that it is a very tiring surface where the early leaders are stopping in the stretch and closers are winning. It probably won't do you much good to identify lone speed on such a surface- more than likely such a horse will be spent long before he reaches the wire.

Now contrast the Belmont turf course to the Calder turf course. There, just from watching how the recent turf races have been won, I would have to conclude that speed horses are at a slight advantage while the closers are having a tough time of it. I realize that it's always easy to red-board- but- in Saturday's 4th at Calder (1 mile and 1/16 on the turf) I thought Formal Miss was the true lone speed. The horse won very easily at 5-2 and had plenty left at the end. The closers in that race never had a chance.