Why databases are screwed up

[tilson]

if something was that good a guy isn't going to mass market it period.
Databases can NOT view data "incontext" and often have ZERO understanding of intangiables that at times can be very meaningful in the grander picture.
The part I find most laughable is how everyone here talks about the learning curve....HEY THIS IS HORSE RACING IT AIN'T ROCKET SCIENCE......these programs should be made so that they are far more user friendly.
Lastly almost every database program I looked at, was very "precanned" or had "cookie cutter" type applications.....ANY GOOD CAPPER WORTH A CRAP will tell you IF they can't manipulate data EASILY and in a WAY they want to.......there is no point period.
I mean i have seen pace ratings etc etc etc....my point ?
Who cares if joe blow rates this horse a 70 ? I might rate him 100......well i guess you understand what i am saying by now.
I think the programers that write these databases have almost no understanding that 99% of cappers want to do not much more than the following:
Be able to hi-lite some info.....be able to manipulate that info via some orginal but rather basic math.....and possiably be able to combined resultent factors and manipulate them in the same way.
Lastly it should all be able to be done without importing and exporting files into different programs etc etc because they are not compatiable formats etc etc

[NoDayJob]

Amen! -NDJ

[karlskorner]

Tilson

Larry H is in shock, but I believe you will hear from him.

Karl

[ceejay]

Digital databases (equine or otherwise) are, on their own, stupid. They are just a bunch of programming code, 1's and 0's. It's the users interpretation of the data and manipulations that adds value. A DB is nothing more than a tool to assist the user.

I've had this argument with non-equine DB managers. I've seen them want to create a DB just because they can without consideration of what the business purpose is, or the ongoing effort that is needed to QC data and to "feed the beast."

I don't handicap horses with a DB, not because I don't think that they can be used to make money. But rather, because I don't have the time or inclination to do the proper care and feeding of the monster.

[Dick Schmidt]

I can understand if you don't like databases, just as I can understand not liking technology. There have always been Luddites (though most of them don't use e-mail and message boards). What I wonder about is why you feel compelled to tell us how much you don't like them?

Dick

[tilson]

because i thought i might inspire someone (who has an understanding of databases and horse racing) to do it right.

[Tom]

OK, some one might give a horse a pace rating of 70 and you would give him a 100. So what?
You use the DB to see whichever one you want to use performs best. I have no idea what a K rating is in HTR-I know it wins over 50% of the races when looking at the top two. Frankly, I don't care what it is, I know what I need to know-what it does. I have a very small DB of HTR files, but I have a wealth of information-I know that K is a great rating to use...unless you are playing Bel turf-then forget it. I know this is working currently-I don't care if is is a 5 year trend- I can't bet those old races. I can bet this week and this week this works.
If I stop feeding the db, it will take me day or two to get a new one back up and use it. For the BRIS contest, I created a small database for several track in a couple of hours Friday night-and I hit 5 winners out of 10. Not bad. It was not a lot of work. And those DB's now lie in dis-use. Maybe in October I will want to play Deleware again-so I download a few cards, add them in and see if what was still is-if it is, I will bet it. If it has changed, isn't that knowledge worth having?
Tom

[tilson]

Tom i want to thank you for the time and effort you spent emailing me/helping me out. However i think you missed my point. I am not saying they are useless rather things would be far more user friendly if they were simplified.
EXAMPLE....in DRF formulator you can get incremental spilts with 1 click of a button and you can view it in the same window i think that is great........rather i am saying one should be able to hi-lite any info in that same window and then be able to manipulate it via add, minus, times.....etc etc and see the resultent in the same window just like the splits.
example....when i export files from forumlator to excel i can't even make up equations due to the different number of starts for diff horses...so if 1 horse has 2 races and the next 4 races and the next 1 race...i can't say add the 1st 3 races for each horse etc etc etc ....which goes back to my orginal post here.
LASTLY I THINK that anyone who is banking on short term trends is in for a very rude awakening.
ON SEVERAL occassion i have built system models that showed an ROI of some 25% over 50 races,
but extend almost any system or stat out to 300 races and you will see that ROI invariably erode.
AS for the HTR k factor you speak of ?
I seriously doubt ANYTHING would keep that kinda average for anything more than 20 or 30 races.
IN fact i welcome you to email the next 30 to 50 "k plays" and i'll bet you dollars to donuts it can't go over 35% winners AND over an ROI of plus 15%.....i mean the thing MIGHT go 50% IF it is playing only 2 to 5 shots but who needs that.

[GR1@HTR]

K factor is very strong at NYRA.

Last 995 at Bel (includes dirt, wet, turf, maidens w/ FTS...The whole thing)
Top 2 K rating
Win 52%
.89 ROI (1.00 break even)


Last 995 at AQU (all races, even w/ all FTS)
Top 2 K rating
Win 53%
.85 ROI

Although it is a good factor, I don't pay much attention to it since it is not how I handicap. Not to say I am wrong or right...Some people are very successful using it. In matter of fact, one gent over at our site uses as his ultra chalk factor mixed in w/ other things yields him 50% or so winners w/ single digit positive ROI. Better than negative ROI thats for sure.

Don’t know why you are ragging on db players or why it bothers you so much, but I give you my $0.02 worth. I used to be a pencil and paper guy, read the form, considered on the “intangibles”, worked for hours at home before I went to the track doing one card at on track. I was lousy at it, lost my posterior, not to even mention all the time I wasted handicapping from the form. Gave up racing altogether for about five years or so.

With the advent of being able to download racing data and results from the internet I decided to try again, this time with a db. Now I download every track that I want to play every day and in less then an hour I have the races and the contenders in those races that I am going to play today. Haven’t looked at a form in 3 years. Now I try to avoid the intangibles worst thing I can do is to start thinking and second guessing my db plays, it takes me off the very horses that make the big winners! Am I getting rich from my db…no, but at least I’m able to stay in the game, doing much better then I used to do with the form. Are you form and “intangibles” guys going to get a few winners that I don’t…sure, I don’t care. I would have never got them anyway doing it the old way.

The difficulty or complexity of a db is directly proportional to the level of detail and the degree one wants to able to slice, dice and what if the data. The more slicing, dicing and what ifing the more complex the db will be to operate. You just can’t have it simple but at the same time give you exactly the data you want in exactly the format you want to see it.

Is there a high learning curve….yes, but once you’ve learned it your over it and now you are able to use the power of the db.

So all you form guys get to the track early find a quite spot and mark that baby up. I’ll be there about 30 min prior to the first race that came up on my spot plays grab myself a beer and see if the odds give me any value.

[tilson]

[QUOTE]Originally posted by GR1
[B]K factor is very strong at NYRA.

Last 995 at Bel (includes dirt, wet, turf, maidens w/ FTS...The whole thing)
Top 2 K rating
Win 52%
.89 ROI (1.00 break even)


Last 995 at AQU (all races, even w/ all FTS)
Top 2 K rating
Win 53%
.85 ROI

Well at least you admitt that is NOT your way of playing.
I assume FTS means favorite to show ? I would say 2 things about that......if you consider losing 11% AND/OR losing 15% on your money very strong, I don't even wanna know what your definition of weak is.
Secondly one would have to divide those win %'s by 2 since it is selecting 2 horses.....26% to win is respectable but really NOT impressive.
HECK, in the past i have repeatedly played 2 horses a race to an ROI of about .96 (over some 150 or so races).
But once again i think we have gone off on a tangent from the orginal post. I don't dispute that databases serve a purpose rather they don't seem to be built by cappers. Apparently there are at least a couple of people here who agree.

[GR1@HTR]

Tilson,

I was just using stats to back up Tom post. Heck, K factor isn't even strongest factor available.

FTS= First Time Starters

Win 30% on top ranked factor 22% on 2nd ranked factor is very strong single factor betting every race regardless of conditions.

An ROI that beats the MLO and more importantly beats most cappers is very strong.

Congratulations on using your brain and repeatedly losing 4 cents on the dollar through 150 samples.

I will politely disagree with your views and leave it at that.

Best of luck,
GR1

[Dave Schwartz]

Tilson,

I have tried, really tried to keep my mouth shut here. Sorry, but I find it impossible to do so any longer.

If someone that made their living at the races trotted in here and took the sanctimonious stand that said, "Anybody that does not use a database is an idiot," you'd be all over them. And, frankly, I'd help (though not likely for the same reason as you).

Personally, I find it repugnant that anyone would tell anyone else that their way is the only way. Heck, I have really strong religious beliefs. Would you care to have me instruct you on how wonderful my beliefs would work in your life? I think not.

So, while I have no desire to create a flame war here (and shall not participate in one), I respectfully choose to disagree.

[Tom]

Top 2 K hitting 53% and 52% at NYRA....gee, that's almost half the races! I thought it was preety handy to know that half of all exatas start out with one of two horses. Now, if I were to throw in the times the ran second too, I might have a real good place to start putting together boxes.
Now, consider that in turf races top 2 K is only hitting something under 30%- means it is better that 53% on dirt and not worth the time to look at for turf races.
I don't play the top two anything anything unless the perecentage is 70+ and showing a profit.
All this stuff is just information, not the Holy Grail.
Tom

[hurrikane]

Well, as a db person....

it seems Tilson that you're complaint is that dbs are too diffucult to use. Well, I can only hope they stay that way so that people like you will continue to complain and not learn how to use them. That should keep my avg mutual up.

If it were black box easy as you would like it you would...as with every black box I have ever seen..be playing chalk, and losing.

Why you feel the need to bash dbs I don't know..if I had it my way no one but me would be useing dbs..that way I would have information no one else has..as it is..I guess the db people will have information YOU don't have.

[Dave Schwartz]

Karl,

Thanks for your concern, but I will choose not to take any offense. (And that has nothing to do with me being a devout Christian. <G>)

Frankly speaking, I find the whole thing laughable.

I think I'll change the subject a bit. Hollywood was home for me until the '70s. I remember the 'glades burning for weeks at a time. Where do you live in Florida?

As you may have heard on the news lately, Reno is being threatened by a runaway forest fire, though it is getting to be well-contained. The smoke is everywhere. (Just like the good 'ole days in Florida.)

[karlskorner]

Dave Schwartz;

Bubba, you could have fooled me, but I still don't like my shyster friends being called "shysters". I live in Davie, to you Miamian's, when you were here, that was known as Horse Country. 6 miles from CRC, 14 miles from GP.

Have a son in Reno, use to work for the Hospital across from Circus Circus, now works for the state. Great City, been there many times, too damn cold in the winter for my blood.

I didn't mean to defend you by name, rather I took offense of the word "shyster" when it comes to programmers, such as yourself, PA and other on this board. who have the knowledge to write winning programs.

A bell rang in my head when I read of this "great" program being developed and just needs a few finishing touches. My grandfather back in the 20's use to call this the "family ***" (loving protective d*******, intelligent son, all around good fellow who knows all the answers) he used it many times. Once to often, as his final mailing address was Sing Sing.

Karl



***=edited due to threatened legal action

[Dave Schwartz]

Karl,

Bubba? LOL - I have to be the least likely bubba on the planet.

Davie, I remember it well. Especially being from (not Miami) but Hollywood. And more accurately, an area that eventually became Hollywood, but was originally (and when I lived there) unincorporated between Miramar, Pembroke Pines and Hollywood.

Almost went to school at Nova, but decided against it. Now I understand they actually go from Kindergarten to grad school.

As for the other matter, I see things much as you do. Did not mean to make it seem that I was not in agreement. I just make a conscious choice to not be offended whenever possible.

Thanks again.

[karlskorner]

Dave Schwartz;

Realized I made a mistake after rereading your post and you are not a former miamian, but rather from Hollywood. Lived in Emerald Hills, Hollywood, when I first moved down here 30 years ago. Had a business on the corner of 46th Ave. and Hollywood Blvd.

Glad someone else interpeted the post same as I did, for a moment I thought I had the Larry H. syndrome.

Karl

[karlskorner]

Dave Schwartz;

God, I love it.

Just read the post on General Discussions, he set the hook. Que, Tim and even Dick. Is the word Beta or Bait ?

Karl

[Lefty]

Jeez, how did this thread turn into old homeweek?,
Dave, what did happen to the day at the races idea?

[billk]

If anyone has any concept on useing data bases you have to construct correct queries and then export then to a spread sheet for further analysing after which put them into a filter and graph the results. After which you will find that few tracks can show a profit. No two tracks will be the same. Some you will win with females others with males Sprints versus routes etc You must know every Track your playing Jck/Trn states will lead you. Bias and track trends plus pacelines help. You must know the Track and Players ie(jck/trn) Bel anyone Pen selected few

[billk]

I see that my last tidbit on data bases was not added to this site Differince in roi with 56% Take the time to learn If you use DB make dam sure it is accesable Most are not just look good and you cant minipulate them. Best in the businessness (love my spelling) is created by TB5 from HDW I will put it up againsts any other with the exception of hand derived Check it out if any one has a CLUE E-mail me and I will help you out