Anyone read this Book: Cracking the Track

[Topcat]

Has anyone read this book?
Cracking the Track
By Dr. Jim Park

He says, it exploers the "Gap Theory"
between speed and pace.

Not sure what that is-early speed?

Anyone with a review?

Thank you
TC

[cj]

http://www.gapfire.com/book.htm

[traynor]

I haven't read the book, but "gap theory" is a definite re-run. We have used it for years to adjust projected daily track variants, and evaluate inidvidual race performances. Most harness handicappers are familiar with both the term and the concepts.

Historically, there was an old ATM piece on "Pace Power," possibly Taulbot, that rated entries based on lengths back at the second call compared to lengths back at the finish, the idea being that an entry "closing the gap" (read "late pace" or "closer") was a better bet.

"Gap theory" evaluates by gap (not much of a surprise), and uses various formulas to compensate for entries eased in the stretch, chasing an uncontested early lead, and similar situations. Steve Chaplin wrote extensively on the importance of gaps in Bettor's Guide to Harness Racing (not Ron Roblin's book of the same name).

Bob Heyburn similarly explored gap theory in Fast and Fit Horses, arguing that performance to the second call was more relevant than finish position, because the gaps among finishers at the end of the race were misleading.

If the book is anything more complex, or contains any original ideas, I hope some reader posts a review. I like new ideas.
Good Luck

[andicap]

Well the book is published in Edmonton, so that's two strikes against it right there.

[Tom]

What's wrong with Edmonton?

[Red Knave]

Well the book is published in Edmonton, so that's two strikes against it right there.I will remember that Andy :cool:

It's actually a great town. Not as refined and urbane as New Rochelle, so if you're ever out there, don't mention where you come from. :p

[banacek]

Well the book is published in Edmonton, so that's two strikes against it right there.

As a television expert, I am shocked. Don't forget Michael J. Fox, Jill Hennessy, Arthur Hiller, or Tommy Chong (ok I would remember more if it weren't for Tommy Chong), to name a few of the stars born in Edmonton.

And then Edmontonians got to watch years of Wayne Gretzky and Warren Moon on top of that.

[Stevie Belmont]

It's easy to bash Canada, but remember the fact that the Great Northern Dancer was bred in Canada.

[Sinner369]

I wasn't born in Edmonton but lived here for 50 years. Love the 4 seasons!

It does get cold for a week or two but spring and summers are great.

I been to both the States and other parts of Canada and would not trade Edmonton for anywhere else.

But we are getting off topic, since the publisher is in my home town will
investigate and report back!

Sinner :)

[Maxspa]

CJ,
Did you get the opportunity to read Dr. Park's book and if so will it work with CJ's figures?
Maxspa

[cj]

CJ,
Did you get the opportunity to read Dr. Park's book and if so will it work with CJ's figures?
Maxspa

No, I haven't read it. I was just trying to help by posting a link.

[ryesteve]

Well, I still don't quite understand what's meant by "gap theory", but at least I learned some stuff about Canada... :)

[JimG]

I see from his website that he developed it based on California tracks. Anyone else ever noticed the number of books developed by people living and/or playing CA tracks? Prior to the advent of polytrack-type surfaces, I always thought that was because pace calucluations are more consistent given the surfaces, weather, etc. I think Beyer commented on that in one of his books.

I know we have a number of New York based players here. Any authors that you would recommend that are east coast based?

Jim

[speedking]

Jim LeHane is the NY based author of Calibration Handicapping and a very successful full time player. In addition to covering the basics, Jim writes about his red scan technique and explains it thoroughly. Good, informative reading.

Here is a link to his website:

http://www.free-horseracing-info.com/handicapping-cal.html (http://www.free-horseracing-info.com/handicapping-cal.html)


speedking

[JimG]

Jim LeHane is the NY based author of Calibration Handicapping and a very successful full time player. In addition to covering the basics, Jim writes about his red scan technique and explains it thoroughly. Good, informative reading.

Here is a link to his website:

(http://www.free-horseracing-info.com/handicapping-cal.html)http://www.free-horseracing-info.com/handicapping-cal.html


speedking

Thanks Speedking, I am familiar with Jim's work and have read it.

[andicap]

Ah, I don't know jack about Edmonton except it's cold and they play a lot of hockey and drink a lot of beer. Besides I love the MacKenzie brothers.

I was just hoping to get a rise out of some of my pals from the GWN. So where's Keilan?

[andicap]

I will remember that Andy :cool:

It's actually a great town. Not as refined and urbane as New Rochelle, so if you're ever out there, don't mention where you come from. :p


Well, New Rochelle does have a lot going for it, I should say. If it was good enough for Rob Petrie, it's good enough for me.

[banacek]

Well, New Rochelle does have a lot going for it, I should say. If it was good enough for Rob Petrie, it's good enough for me.

Just watch out for the ottoman when you get home.

[ryesteve]

Well, New Rochelle does have a lot going for it
I'll say... where else could you find a strip club right across the street from an arcade? :D

[befuddlem]

I see from his website that he developed it based on California tracks. Anyone else ever noticed the number of books developed by people living and/or playing CA tracks? Prior to the advent of polytrack-type surfaces, I always thought that was because pace calucluations are more consistent given the surfaces, weather, etc. I think Beyer commented on that in one of his books.

I know we have a number of New York based players here. Any authors that you would recommend that are east coast based?

Jim

I see Dr. Park gave out a free play for Aqueduct today. It won!

[PlanB]

I just ordered the Gap Theory book. If its recent, I can't resist the read. There are 2 things that irk me about his ad: #1, QUIREN is spelt QUIRIN, no "E"; #2, in most forms to buy, they all ask for SHIPPING ADDRESS, but they don't tell you how their Shipping or you don't have a choice, UPS, MAIL, FED Ex. When it arrives & I read it, I'll probably have some questions, since I think I'll NEVER really understand pace at all. PS: It was the post that Dr Park gave out a pick for AQU that tilted me to buy. I like guys who put their ideas to any test.

[ryesteve]

There are 2 things that irk me about his ad: #1, QUIREN is spelt QUIRIN, no "E"
Umm, there's not SUPPOSED to be an "e" in it...

[GameTheory]

Spelt?

Spelled.

[PlanB]

What I meant is that the ad spelled QUIRIN with an "E", spelling it QUEREN.
re SPELT, blame that on my russian half.

[jabberwocky]

This author is a friend from way way back although I haven't seen him for years. I visit with his brother from time to time at the track. I will see if he will send me a copy of the book to review on this site, and if so the review will appear in fairly short order.

Clare

[Sinner369]

As stated in my post (#9) I will investigate. Met with Dr Park.

He read the posts on paceadvantage! And was kind enough to converse with a total stranger (me).

He did not have any books available (sold out) but is printing out more.

He was kind enough to let me peruse his manual. Like the rest of us he is a long time racing fan and handicapper. He created his own system and stands by it.

When copies are available I will buy one and give a review!

FYI, Sinner369

[andicap]

I'll say... where else could you find a strip club right across the street from an arcade? :D

Spoken like a true Rye snob!!! :p

[jabberwocky]

Sinner369

Glad to hear you contacted Jim Park. I will just let the matter of the review rest in your hands. I am looking forward to reading it.

Clare

[PriceAnProbability]

I haven't read the book, but "gap theory" is a definite re-run. We have used it for years to adjust projected daily track variants, and evaluate inidvidual race performances. Most harness handicappers are familiar with both the term and the concepts.

Historically, there was an old ATM piece on "Pace Power," possibly Taulbot, that rated entries based on lengths back at the second call compared to lengths back at the finish, the idea being that an entry "closing the gap" (read "late pace" or "closer") was a better bet.

"Gap theory" evaluates by gap (not much of a surprise), and uses various formulas to compensate for entries eased in the stretch, chasing an uncontested early lead, and similar situations. Steve Chaplin wrote extensively on the importance of gaps in Bettor's Guide to Harness Racing (not Ron Roblin's book of the same name).

Bob Heyburn similarly explored gap theory in Fast and Fit Horses, arguing that performance to the second call was more relevant than finish position, because the gaps among finishers at the end of the race were misleading.

If the book is anything more complex, or contains any original ideas, I hope some reader posts a review. I like new ideas.
Good Luck

This is also the basis for what Ragozin calls a "quit figure." Generally it's for outclassed horses whose figures are deflated when they (or their jock) toss it in and fade more than their raw ability would indicate.

Kind of like Sham in the 1973 Belmont.

[befuddlem]

I signed up as a member, and from what I can tell, both of you guys are wrong! I also ordered the book. I will let you know what it's all about, when I read it. Why speculate erroneously?

[kingfin66]

I forgot to post this yesterday, buy Dr. Park's freeplay won the nightcap at Aqueduct (#3) at around 10/1.

I have no idea what the method is, but to get both the book and a full year's subscription to the site for $60 is pretty low risk. The normal price is $10/mo, which also seems pretty reasonable.

[Sinner369]

I found Jim Park to be knowledgeable, affable and genuine. He reminds me of your favorite teacher or professor when you were a kid.

Book? It reads like a semi-instructional manual on how to calculate relevant speed factors in determining your formula, equation or system for each horse.

This would appeal to the analytical, detail type of personality who likes to make their own speed figures.

If you bet based on hunch, feel, intuition this is not the book for you.

For those who are inbetween (myself included) the book offers you another factor to assist you in making a final decision on the readiness of a horse.

If nothing else the book gives you a different perspective from your usual California based authors. Dr Park does use California tracks for his many examples.

GAP? In answer to Traynor (post #3) I have not read Pace Power nor Bob Heyburn but from the description in Traynor's post the GAP is not the same.

Dr Park did not wish me to describe the GAP. He is trying to sell books!

Cheers, Sinner

[befuddlem]

I also ordered the book, but haven't got it yet. I've been using the Quickgaps in the member area, and have been having some success, when I use them in conjunction with my normal handicapping. The Quickgaps have pointed me to some big longshots that I might have otherwise left out. They seem to hit 2 or 3 races and then miss, but what handicapping method doesn't.

[banacek]

I forgot to post this yesterday, buy Dr. Park's freeplay won the nightcap at Aqueduct (#3) at around 10/1.

I have no idea what the method is, but to get both the book and a full year's subscription to the site for $60 is pretty low risk. The normal price is $10/mo, which also seems pretty reasonable.

And it looks like if you pay the $60 for the year, you get the book too - unless I'm reading it incorrectly. Certainly more than reasonable.

[PlanB]

I also ordered the book, but haven't got it yet. I've been using the Quickgaps in the member area, and have been having some success, when I use them in conjunction with my normal handicapping. The Quickgaps have pointed me to some big longshots that I might have otherwise left out. They seem to hit 2 or 3 races and then miss, but what handicapping method doesn't.

BEFUDDem, ty. I've always been befuddled by 2 stats: Favs WIN 1/3; MOST very successful players WIN 1/3. If a player says he wins 4 outta 10 (40%) he's a god. Why is that? Maybe, behind that glass ceiling, lies more stats, enduring.
That 33% favs awes me, but there must be other limits for other factors, In a way, although I think IV's miss the point, I think the IV holy grail is any factor that behaves, year after year, track after track, like that 33 per cent factor.

[befuddlem]

I agree Plan B. When I'm talking about these Quickgaps though, I'm talking about 4 numbers that that Dr. Park's site provides. As far as statistical accuracies are concerned, I do not yet know at what frequency, and at what price these numbers hit. All I'm saying is that they look like a nice tool that might lead to the odd longshot that might otherwise be missed.

The 1/3 thing endures, but it doesn't make you any money.

[PlanB]

Agreed, 100%, BEfuddleM

[befuddlem]

Anyone other than Sinner get their book yet?

[PlanB]

I got an Email saying it left Canada about 4 days ago & it could take a week more. He's seems very responsive.

[PlanB]

Forgot. Yesterday Park's book arrived. I've got off until next Wednesday & will give it a good read.

[befuddlem]

Yes, I got mine too. I am enjoying it so far.

[PlanB]

umm, I think its OK, but too wordy. Like a Quinn book, it talks a lot but what does it all mean. (I'm at page 37/117, but I need a break)

[befuddlem]

A bit like Quinn perhaps. I think a good prior knowledge of pace handicapping is kind of essential to knowing what he's talking about.

[befuddlem]

I've finished reading the book, and have started to implement some of Dr. Park's ideas into my own spreadhseet program. I've had a pretty good run thus far. I enjoyed the book, but it is probably not for people who are not into serious pace handicapping.:ThmbUp:

[Handiman]

Would like a little more info, so I can decide whether to buy it or not.


Handi

[befuddlem]

Dr. Park is big on running styles, and implemantation of several different differet factors into the final breakdown of a race. The general gist of which is the gap that is created by the difference between the final speed figure and the pace. His formulae attempt to quantify this gap. (In general the faster horses run early the larger the toll it takes on them later in a race.)
He doesn't talk too much about odds and value handicapping. This book is more about picking probable win contenders than anything else.

[befuddlem]

Dr. Park is big on running styles, and implementation of several different different factors into the final breakdown of a race. The general gist of which is the gap that is created by the difference between the final speed figure and the pace. His formulae attempt to quantify this gap. (In general the faster horses run early the larger the toll it takes on them later in a race.)
He doesn't talk too much about odds and value handicapping. This book is more about picking probable win contenders than anything else.

Dr. Park is big on running styles, and implementation of several different different factors into the final breakdown of a race.

That's what I meant to say! Damn Typos!

[BeatTheChalk]

**** TAKE AWWWFFFF ( OFF ) EHHHH *** :bang: :lol: I can still
see them in my mind ...SCTV ... I will laugh forever !

[Tom]

What kinds of figs dow he use in his gap analysis?
Any figs will do, or does he have his own taliered to the method?

Sounds interesting....I might give it a try.

[befuddlem]

The figure that Dr. Park's site provides for their members is called a Quickgap.
It combines pace and speed. I've used it and have had some pretty good success with it.

[John]

This Dr. Park Quickgap sounds a lot like CJ's Pacefigures. CJ has done a remarkable job in combining pace and final speed to a single number. I doubt Dr.Park can do better.

Has anyone compaired Quickgap tp Pacefigures.


:) :) :)