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View Full Version : Declan's Moon - on the Comeback Trail ..working out like a horse on a mission


BeatTheChalk
11-29-2006, 02:31 AM
Watch the entries. His connectons have been Relentless with the horse. Been working him for months ...We shall see. I think the horse was unbeaten before he was sidelined with an injury.

cj
11-29-2006, 07:44 AM
2yos that don't improve when they return at 3 are amongst the best bet againsts in all of racing. I will happily bet against this guy each and every time he shows up, as he will always be a shortish price due to his 2yo accomplishments.

classhandicapper
11-29-2006, 09:42 AM
2yos that don't improve when they return at 3 are amongst the best bet againsts in all of racing. I will happily bet against this guy each and every time he shows up, as he will always be a shortish price due to his 2yo accomplishments.

They might find a weak enough spot for him first time out, but I'm with you. I can't wait to bet against this horse again.

kenwoodallpromos
11-29-2006, 01:43 PM
I like horses that are unbeaten working in company.

KirisClown
11-29-2006, 03:46 PM
Relentless doesnt seem to be much of a choice.. he's a gelding, what else can he do...

I think he's lost once or twice now too....

JPinMaryland
11-29-2006, 03:58 PM
Declans Moon did run as a 3 yr old didnt he? HE was running early in the year at the Santa Catalina then another..?

WOuld that throw off your observation? Does it matter if he made a start at 3?

Ron
11-29-2006, 04:51 PM
I thought he raced about 2 months ago.

cj
12-04-2006, 02:01 PM
Horse ran like crap. I never pay attention to the trainers. They are optimists, not realists. Or even better, they are full of shit trying to keep an owner happy. The top figure horse won the race at 13 to 1, fyi.

Tom
12-04-2006, 06:29 PM
Some days, you're the windshield, some days you're the bug.
Yesterday, my wipers were humming.
I love hype horses who are way over the hill.

cj
01-07-2007, 11:32 AM
This horse continues to run poorly, but still went off the 5-2 favorite in a Grade II Stakes race. Horses like this one and the 3-1 Bond horse in the Count Fleet at Aqu yesterday are what make this game beatable.

RBrowning
01-07-2007, 12:10 PM
Great posts,guys.





(NOT!)





I prefer the first timer after a last time.

kenwoodallpromos
01-07-2007, 12:44 PM
Isn't betting a layoff horse's old record like closing the barn door after the horse left?

cj
01-07-2007, 02:30 PM
Isn't betting a layoff horse's old record like closing the barn door after the horse left?

Depends on the price you are getting now, doesn't it?

46zilzal
01-07-2007, 02:36 PM
this one has been hurt and his last return at Del Mar was a fizzle

bigmack
01-07-2007, 02:54 PM
This horse continues to run poorly, but still went off the 5-2 are what make this game beatable.
DMR is a throw out and HOL wasn't exactly a "bum run". Both races warranted the odds off. Yesterdays race he probably should have been 9-2. Citing this as "making the game beatable" seems a tad dramatic

cj
01-07-2007, 03:13 PM
The first Hollywood was a throwout too then? This horse has shown zero signs that he is near the same animal he was at 2, yet he keeps getting bet that way.

Bad favorites are the key to winning, and this one is was bad as they get. If that is dramatic, so be it. It isn't like I didn't mention this a few months ago and say he was a bet against every time he runs.

He was my first exchange booking as well. :D

bigmack
01-07-2007, 04:03 PM
Not a biggie but how old was he on Mar5 05 & July16 06?

cj
01-07-2007, 04:15 PM
I wouldn't say he was a bet against in March 05, only a three month layoff and starting on the TC trail. The next one though, definitely, and I did toss him. I don't think I won on that race.

cj
01-20-2007, 07:22 PM
He came through again in an allowance at Golden Gate today. Retirement, or CharlesTown?

bigmack
01-20-2007, 07:31 PM
The pub wasn't fooled today. M/L 3/5 and he went @ 4/5. They're slowly getting the picture with him.

http://www.mikesfreegifs.com/main4/horse/mexicano_stubborn_mule_tug_reins_sm_wht.gif

Tom
01-20-2007, 07:39 PM
If he had fallen down, he would have finished as good.
This plug is ready to pull the fire wagon.
He was totally no threat today.

DJofSD
01-20-2007, 07:50 PM
What I saw today was a horse that has no competitive fire, he was just running because he was with other horses that were running.

This guy's toast. Give him to some nice teen age girl to lay up for 6 months to a year then he'll make a great trail horse.

Dan Montilion
01-20-2007, 08:32 PM
I was waiting for the bridge-jumper show bet... never happened damn it.

kenwoodallpromos
01-21-2007, 09:11 AM
Those of us who are familiar with NorCal think Dr. Einstein is not exactly a bum!

cj
01-21-2007, 09:21 AM
Those of us who are familiar with NorCal think Dr. Einstein is not exactly a bum!

He is not a bum, but he also isn't the only horse that beat DM yesterday. They all did.

bigmack
01-21-2007, 12:55 PM
Trainer Ron Ellis: First art before the race, the second, after

http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/news/story?id=2736795

http://horseracing.sportsline.com/cbs/headlines/showarticle.aspx?articleId=15986

PaceAdvantage
01-21-2007, 09:24 PM
I only shudder to think of what might be if the trainer name on this horse was Lukas instead of Ellis....imagine all the "outrage" that would be spewing forth from the keyboards of many on this site and in the press....

Yeah, yeah, I know Lukas is basically yesterday's news, but I thought I'd bring it up for kicks....

cj
05-20-2007, 07:10 AM
In all the hoopla surrounding the Preakness, I forgot to post Declan's Moon was entered again, and lost again, at 2 to 1. I offered 3 to 1 on Betfair and had many takers.

bigmack
05-20-2007, 12:57 PM
I offered 3 to 1 on Betfair and had many takers.
How does that work, you get what % of the handle?

Premier Turf Club
05-20-2007, 01:06 PM
How does that work, you get what % of the handle?

'Mack,

You get the whole thing. When you lay a horse you are booking that bet. He loses, you keep it, he wins you pay off at whatever fixed odds you layed. The biggest betting syndciates derive a significant portion of their income from the exchange markets.

They are illegal for US residents.

bigmack
05-20-2007, 01:17 PM
You get the whole thing. When you lay a horse you are booking that bet. He loses, you keep it, he wins you pay off at whatever fixed odds you layed. The biggest betting syndciates derive a significant portion of their income from the exchange markets.
They are illegal for US residents.
Thanks Ian. I know it's not for us Yanks but how does BetFair make loot on that transaction?

Premier Turf Club
05-20-2007, 05:20 PM
Thanks Ian. I know it's not for us Yanks but how does BetFair make loot on that transaction?

They take a piece of every trade. I think it's between 2%-4% commission but don't hold me to those #s. Not a lot on each one, but gigantic on their overall volume with no risk at all.