so far, nothings changed

[46zilzal]

All this hub-bub about Polytrack MAY be a long term change in energy distribution and winners, but COLD (Northeast and Canada) and the front end is a BONANAZA on the dirt.

Things have not changed.....YET.

[PaceAdvantage]

Speed at Keeneland was death. Hub-bub and all....

[Valuist]

Zilzal-

I don't play or watch WO so I can't debate that. But speed has NOT been the name of the game at TP, Kee or Hol. And when a horse does go wire to wire, its more of a function of everyone going slow early

[JustRalph]

Zilzal-

I don't play or watch WO so I can't debate that. But speed has NOT been the name of the game at TP, Kee or Hol. And when a horse does go wire to wire, its more of a function of everyone going slow early

I am very interested in what happens at TP this next few weeks. It has been warmer than normal. I wonder if they did anything expecting colder weather?

[kenwoodallpromos]

All this hub-bub about Polytrack MAY be a long term change in energy distribution and winners, but COLD (Northeast and Canada) and the front end is a BONANAZA on the dirt.

Things have not changed.....YET.
_______________
That should be good news to many!

[46zilzal]

Zilzal-

I don't play or watch WO so I can't debate that. But speed has NOT been the name of the game at TP, Kee or Hol. And when a horse does go wire to wire, its more of a function of everyone going slow early
strange, I never mentioned any of those tracks!

AND PA, Keeneland's track was changed in layout, the strech was graded, oh, and yes, then there's the poly.

[cj]

Funny you should say that on a day when exactly two horses went wire to wire at WO out of ten, hardly a bonanza. On Friday, there were zero out of 10, though two were just off the pace. On Thursday, one out of nine won from the front. Wednesday produced one out of eight winners on the engine, at the giant price of 4 to 5.

I just don't see how this equates to:

the front end is a BONANAZA on the dirt

[Tom]

It's the exchange rate American to Canadian.

[46zilzal]

Funny you should say that on a day when exactly two horses went wire to wire at WO out of ten, hardly a bonanza. On Friday, there were zero out of 10, though two were just off the pace. On Thursday, one out of nine won from the front. Wednesday produced one out of eight winners on the engine, at the giant price of 4 to 5.

I just don't see how this equates to:
going wire to wire DOES NOT, by itself, mean early. There are degrees of it based upon energy distribution NOT positiion.

[46zilzal]

also one PROJECTS their style comng into the race and NOT by reviews what position they took.

[cj]

going wire to wire DOES NOT, by itself, mean early. There are degrees of it based upon energy distribution NOT positiion.

You said "front end", and there is only one horse on the front end.

Energy distribution has changed, especially in routes. You are changing what you said originally, when you were apparently trying to be your usual cryptic self.

Here is something you may want to try. Post so that others might know what the hell you are talking about. You constantly do the same thing, and I should know better than to bother.

[46zilzal]

we have a different way of looking at the races. PERIOD. Don't need to instruct people one way or the other. Just comment.

[46zilzal]

Energy distribution has changed, especially in routes. You are changing what you said originally, when you were apparently trying to be your usual cryptic self.



have to disagree that is still the same at most courses on the dirt.

[cj]

have to disagree that is still the same at most courses on the dirt.

No matter how you measure energy, this is different.

At 1m70y, the average winner is running .53 seconds slower to the pace call on polytrack. At 1m1/16, the average winner is running .56 seconds slower to the pace call. At 1m1/8, the average winner is running .55 seconds slower to the pace call. At 1m1/4, the average winner is running .45 seconds slower to the pace call.

To me, that is a clear change in energy distribution on polytrack. What am I missing?

[46zilzal]

slower yes, distribution of it THE SAME: earlier than most tracks

[46zilzal]

4th Woodbine, even though the winner might come down

ENERGY DISTRIBUTION had the exacta EARLIER the better.


4th race - Woodbine - November 26, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
10 Truly an Honour 41.50 19.10 9.30
2 Ashlee's Cat 12.20 8.10
3 Bridled Jet 4.10

$2 Triactor 10-2-3 5,423.80
$2 Exactor 10-2 426.80
$1 Pick 3 5-3-10 (3 correct) 1,691.30

[46zilzal]

same race: DID NOT SEE THIS BEFORE, but the top three second calls were 1-2-3. That says early

[cj]

I'm talking about in relation to final time, not just raw speed.

If a horse on dirt won a 1m1/16 race in 1:46.00, he used to average the 6f in 1:12.96. He now takes 1:13.52 for the same final time.

In %E terms, on dirt:

3960 / 72.96 = 54.28 fps for EP

1650 / 33.04 = 49.94 fps for the 3F.

So, %E would be 54.28 / (54.28 + 49.94) = 52.08

On Polytrack:

3960 / 73.52 = 53.86 fps for EP

1650 / 32.48 = 50.80 fps for 3F.

So, %E would be 53.86 / (53.86 + 50.80) = 51.46

Even a non-Sartin guy like me knows that is a pretty big %E difference. The other route distances are similar, and %M should show similar differences.

[46zilzal]

don't USE percent early....Afraid that is, well, OLD HAT

THEY have all moved, but relative to one another they are the same

[cj]

What now, %M? The result will be the same. I'll be happy to calculate it if you like. If it is something else, what is the formula? Or just tell me what it is called and I'll look up the formula. I still think the difference will be evident. The raw pace and final times don't lie, no matter how you bend them in calculations.

We will have to agree to disagree on the "big difference". I think most Sartin people would say that is a huge difference.

[46zilzal]

distribution is percentage of energy expended per fraction. LOWER the speed proportionally and the relative percentages are still the same.

[cj]

What is the formula then? My contention is that they are not lowering proportionally. Pace calls are slowing noticably while final times are not. Where am I wrong?

[46zilzal]

I don't know....I just find that WOODBINE has not changed with the advent of Polytrack.

[cj]

I don't know....I just find that WOODBINE has not changed with the advent of Polytrack.

If you don't know, how can you say it hasn't changed? It clearly has by anyone tracking who is winning the races. The clock, which all Sartin calculations are based on, does not lie. The proportion of pace calls to final times have changed. I don't know how anyone could say they haven't unless they are just guessing.

[46zilzal]

I do not keep times. I purchase data.The energy distribution is the same. PERIOD Can't state it any clearer than that of a track I PLAY EVERYDAY.

the formulae are within the software and I do not have the code.

[cj]

I do not keep times. I purchase data.The energy distribution is the same. PERIOD Can't state it any clearer than that of a track I PLAY EVERYDAY.

the formulae are within the software and I do not have the code.

Fair enough, but your software is wrong or not updated. There is simply no way the energy distribution is the same in route races. I have the facts to back it up. I can't state it any clearer than that. I also play the track nearly everyday, fyi.

[46zilzal]

well then we will pick with differing methods just as we always have.

[46zilzal]

The riders are going to the front as much as usual. NO one is holding back. The surface change is the cause.

[46zilzal]

Fair enough, but your software is wrong or not updated. There is simply no way the energy distribution is the same in route races. I have the facts to back it up. I can't state it any clearer than that. I also play the track nearly everyday, fyi.
YOU KNOW we differ, but in that difference, and correct me if I'm wrong, I allow your perspective to stand without calling it wrong. I would appreciate the same consideration.

The routes remain EARLIER than most other tracks by a considerable amount other than bull rings.

Never said routes and sprints were the same either.

[cj]

YOU KNOW we differ, but in that difference, and correct me if I'm wrong, I allow your perspective to stand without calling it wrong. I would appreciate the same consideration.

In this case, I don't think both can be right. And it certainly isn't personal, as you are talking about a software product, not your personal work. I was trying to be objective, laying out my data as clear as possible, and presenting my case. But you can't, or won't, so there isn't much else to say other than I felt the software you are using has incorrect, or wrong, data.

If you don't want what you post to be questioned, why bother posting? Do you want to start a mutual admiration society?

[46zilzal]

I never mind scrutiny...that is how I learn........


We are just not only on different pages...we are in different libraries and I am happy with that. I only need to prove things to myself.

[classhandicapper]

Is it possible the software is looking at a different pace call or multiple pace calls instead of just the 6F pace call when doing it's calculations?

[cj]

Is it possible the software is looking at a different pace call or multiple pace calls instead of just the 6F pace call when doing it's calculations?

yes, but those have changed as well.

[xciceroguy]

I thought the whole purpose of the poly tracks was for horse safety. Less broken bones and such. As far as the speeds are concerned, who cares? It will all shake out in the end.

[cj]

I thought the whole purpose of the poly tracks was for horse safety. Less broken bones and such. As far as the speeds are concerned, who cares? It will all shake out in the end.

I think maybe people betting might care.

[46zilzal]

NOTHING has convinced me that Woodbine, so far, is anything like the other Polytracks. NADA

It is very often a speedballs paradise.

If that changes, on a daily basis, then that opinion will change. Hasn't yet.

[46zilzal]

example amongst many.....early wins

[46zilzal]

10th race - Woodbine - November 25, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
12 Angel's Chorus 87.20 40.50 19.60
1 Dreams At Sunset 7.50 4.90
6 Haliburtonhighland 9.00


earlier the better


ALL done with "bad" data

[cj]

Now you are just being an internet troll, no thanks.