Speed-Figure Pars

[jagr]

I'm back to handicapping after years away and I'm trying to figure out where I can find the Speed-Figure Pars for the different types of races at any given track. Brad Free mentions them in his book "Handicapping 101", which incidently I've found helpuful and interesting. At any rate I've been working Caulder cards and would like to try using them. Any help would be greatly appreciated.

jgar

[Buddha]

You only need 1 post on the subject. It is a holiday and people may not be reading as much. To come up with pars, basically you have to look at the past and see what it takes to win a race. Usually done by class. If you use Beyers, you may want to look towards the Simulcast Weekly and see if they have Beyers pars in it. I know that they have pars for some tracks in it. \

If you want to do it yourself, basically you will take the races, up to about a year back, and get an "average" winning speed figure.

[Tom]

Contact Dave Schwartz here - his are excellant.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I just saw DRF has the 3 year best times on their homepage.

[Murph]

I'm back to handicapping after years away and I'm trying to figure out where I can find the Speed-Figure Pars for the different types of races at any given track. Brad Free mentions them in his book "Handicapping 101", which incidently I've found helpuful and interesting. At any rate I've been working Caulder cards and would like to try using them. Any help would be greatly appreciated.

jgarThere are 10K level par times and our class adjustment charts for every track, available at our website, http://www.thorostats.com Our par time updates are added and averaged daily.

The only problem is - there is NO CHARGE for this service at this time.

You may be better served by an expensive professional par time product, like the ones others have mentioned here. As it has been pointed out to me recently, "You get what you pay for."

Murph

[shanta]

I'm back to handicapping after years away and I'm trying to figure out where I can find the Speed-Figure Pars for the different types of races at any given track. Brad Free mentions them in his book "Handicapping 101", which incidently I've found helpuful and interesting. At any rate I've been working Caulder cards and would like to try using them. Any help would be greatly appreciated.

jgar

If you want the best use Dave Schwartz's pars.
http://horsestreet.com/
Richie

[Murph]

If you want the best use Dave Schwartz's pars.
RichieHow do you come to this conclusion Shanta?

It's difficult to compare and judge par times. The only way I know is to use the various times to make your speed figures then compare them. I'm interested to understand what you consider most important when selecting par times?

Murph

[shanta]

How do you come to this conclusion Shanta?

It's difficult to compare and judge par times. The only way I know is to use the various times to make your speed figures then compare them. I'm interested to understand what you consider most important when selecting par times?

Murph

Murph,

What I consider most important is CASH. When I used software I plugged Dave's pars into mine and it made money. For me that's the bottom line as what is best.

I also know that he does a bit of "creative thinking" regarding what numbers make sense and what do not. The pars are a labor of love for him and he takes great pride in them. If there is something better out there I haven't seen or heard of them.

Happy Holidays
Richie :)

[jagr]

This was the first time on the Forum and I posted in two sections through ignorance.
jgar

[betovernetcapper]

I use a HDW software program that among other things creates/maintains pars. I've used the program for years and have every confidence in it. Anyway I just visited Murph's site and did a cursory comparison of his pars to mine and while there were differences, the relationships were the same. It looks to me as though Murph's pars would work as well as other pars with the added benefit of being free. :)

[Tom]

I mentioned Dave's because of familiarity - I have used his pars since the old Thorobrain days, on Tom Brohame's recommendation.

I didn't mean to say Thorsat's were not good - just not what I have experience with.

But they do a nice job over there and I would certaily check them out.

[kenwoodallpromos]

How do you come to this conclusion Shanta?

It's difficult to compare and judge par times. The only way I know is to use the various times to make your speed figures then compare them. I'm interested to understand what you consider most important when selecting par times?

Murph
____
Do you save pars from prior years? can you email or IM me some pars for years back at a couple of tracks to compare with current ones? Thanks!

[46zilzal]

Pars would work if all the races ran the same. HINT: THEY DON'T

[shanta]

How do you come to this conclusion Shanta?

It's difficult to compare and judge par times. The only way I know is to use the various times to make your speed figures then compare them. I'm interested to understand what you consider most important when selecting par times?

Murph

Murph,
It is actually quite easy ( but VERY time consuming) to accurately compare par times.

1) get a platform ( software) that enables entering par times ( The Master Handicapper (Tmh) and Synergism 3,4 for ex)

2) Use a consistent method of line selection ( or in The Master Handicapper's case it has an expert or automatic line selector)

3) Run a hundred or so cards of races and compare results.
a) last race
b) best ever comparable dist/structure
c) auto line selector

Results would be right there in black and white. I was certainly not putting yours nor any other product down Murph.

Simply stating my observed fact that Dave's are the BEST I have seen. "I" being the operative word here and YES I have tested before using :)

Richie

[PaceAdvantage]

Pars would work if all the races ran the same. HINT: THEY DON'T

Have you ever constructed your own pars, or utilized pars in any way, shape or form? It sounds as if you have, based upon your "they don't work" comment.

[46zilzal]

Have you ever constructed your own pars, or utilized pars in any way, shape or form? It sounds as if you have, based upon your "they don't work" comment.
yep and found the conclusion listed.....missed the MANY times when they did not work and abandoned them.

Since EACH race is a NEW unique mix of running styles, using the SAME yardstick to measure the outcome is, well, silly after you look at enough of them.