Keenland races 1 and 2 for Wed.

[Suff]

Raining In Lexington right now,,, been raining lightly all day.. expected to end Late tonight.. Tommorrow.. 45- 52 Degrees and cloudy... 20% chance of rain. Winds out of the north at 15MPH...

Throw out the Morning lines on this race... They mean NOTHING... They have installed the 3 as the M/L Fav? 3-1... I think they'll bet the 12 a lil bit.. and they may have a point as he appears to be ready to carry his speed a lil longer. I have a problem with a horse that sells for half his stud fee however and I'll give him a look on the track and Tote before I rule him out.

I'm gonna go on a lil angle here. Robbie Albarado has been going very very well here.. and I recall him going well in NJ before shipping in here. He's quietly slipped into 11th place Nationally as of last week.. Gotten over a 1000 mounts this year and has 216 wins to his credit... He's got 11 wins in 54 mounts at keeneland and I have to assume his agent is CHERRY PICKING mounts for him at this point... Rebonah #5 , first stime starter. His Sire clicks at an unheard of 25% with Firsters... Robbie clicking at 20% ,, I'm using this horse for sure. Works are steady but not overwhelming and I like that because he'd be an underlay with Great works... maybe in this big field I'll catch a price for good connections.


The 8 Tommorrows dancer... I'm tempted to like that First effort, as it was against MDSWPT and he did make up some ground after a slow start, and the comments indicate a rough trip. But the top three horses were 9 clear, wich indicates a good race, but he only earned a 48 beyer for his effort, when he did beat half the field home? Gets court.. first lasix.. and I will give the horse a look,, But I suspect he'll be overbet and I may not use him for that reason.

I like one more horse in here that will be a big Price... the 10 Mythical trick... I do not mind horses that are learning the game that show me they will "STAY TO THE TASK".... if I see a horse that is hoplessly back in race, but stays running.. I like that. In his debut.. he broke poorly,, was 11 lengths back shortly after break.. and when they crossed the line 5 furlongs later.. he was 10 3/4 lengths back. Horse was hoplessly out of it but stayed to the task... I might add he took significan tote in that debut and went off at 5-1 in a 10 horse field. Now I do need to excuse the 2nd race a bit as he broke well and still Finished poorly , 7th by 13... but lost NOTHING in the stretch of a very fast race.. HIS DADDY is Clever TRICK and he's half to Pleasant Colony on his MOM's side... he went at 21-1 in race 2 and I suspect he'll go off NORTH of that , this race. Ken Mcpeek is no SLOUCH either.. and the breeder is the owner.. so everybody is interested in this horse doing well.

First race I'm using the 5, 10..and I'm looking at the track and TOTE for the 8 and the 12.

2nd race.. another bid field and I suppose a 10-1 with another 10-1 will be a $250 dollar double here... So I'm going WIDE EYED at these two and going wide on my Tickets... after all,, a $5 dollar double is half a weeks pay at these prices.

I'm thinking with rain all night and low tempatures and NO SUN in the morning.. the track will not dry out and even if it is rated fast.. it will play GD. If thats the case... Pat Day has a horse you have to use... BTW.. when's the last time you saw JB on a 7500 claimer? everyone was astonished when he rode a few 25K'ers at Saratoga,, but he was chasing PRADO then... But you gotta hand it to DAY... he just rides horses.. UNLIKE royalty who only ride Stakes MOUNTS.

#4 Broad Berth... 2 starts 2 wins on an off track... Looks like a lil class hike, but beyers fit and the Rider can add a class level on his own... Need to see the track to strongly reccommend but there are a few things to like... but it is clear she has struggled against Open Claimers to date.. but only 3 and improving weekly at this point... 10 starts 3 wins.. means she KNOWS

Evening in Paris.. the 1... I don't think she can get it done here. She has 6 wins in 19 starts.. But when starting from the 1 or 2 hole... She's 0 for 19... she's been giving it up at 6 furlongs.. so I have real doubts the extra half's gonna work for her ,,from this POST... Probable favorite... I'm tossing her.

#3 Rasing Salem.. her last two are very telling... when they walked out in fron of her at 24... she did nothing... but when she got something to run at next out,, she closed from 17 back and won the race at 24-1...Borel up... Be a big price and I'm giving her a look. 1-1 on an off track... Highest Lifetime Beyer of 63 on an off track....

Not really much to like with any of these.. so I'm reaching for one more and I came up with the nine horse.. Seattle ASH... seemingly improving with last four races running at same beyer level.. 1-1 on an off track.. Lighlty raced 11 starts 3 wins.. Blinkers coming off and if NOTHING else,, she'll kill the Fav Evening N paris for me...


Race 2 I'm using the 3, 4, 9

[ernie simons]

Meaning you'll use the 8 & 12 if the track dries to good Sufferin?

[crackers@NOLA]

Albarado did not ride in NJ this year, he was based at Arl. The guy your thinking of is Roberto AlVarado who rode at Col. this summer. Robbie is the go to man of Tom Amoss at the Fr Gr's.

[ridersup]

Love your analysis of both races and like you I believe this could be boxcar double and exactas in both races. Some people say to stay away from races such as this but I look upon them as an opportunity for a good score.

One addition I would make in the 2d race is # 6 Trumps Native Lady. She actually has the best wet Beyer in the race at 65. The 1, 5, 9, and 12 all show early so closers should prevail. Trumps Native Lady has 2 wins from 3 starts at this tricky distance. She ran a big race against open 10k claimers and is now turning back to her favorite distance. She might be a low price but I think I might use her in some exactas.

In any event nice analysis and good luck.

[Boris]

Admit that Keeneland is not my long suit, but do not dismiss the outside horses because of what the TOTE shows. Seems like I have seen a number of horses on the outside run well there the last week or so while the track has been wet. You may already have it nailed, but I'm looking at A Bit Foolish in the 1st and Wolf Girl in the 2nd. Also, L Melancon & Register teamed up for a winner last weekend at 7F and are back together in the 3rd. These three are more exotic filler than key horses but should carry some value before the gates open.

[Suff]

Originally posted by ernie simons
Meaning you'll use the 8 & 12 if the track dries to good Sufferin? [B]

More like.. If the Horses are being bet.. and/or they look live in the paddock....I'll use them on some Double Tik's

[Suff]

.

One addition I would make in the 2d race is # 6 Trumps Native Lady. She actually has the best wet Beyer in the race at 65

Actually had a comment about the horse typed into the post.. I ended up cutting it out... For two reasons,, The horse will be heavy BET and people like yourself will see that. So I really like to reccommend horses with less obvious betting angles.. But also .. That 10K open race she ran was very slow,,, she was in with a bug at 111lbs.. she got out well and was uncontested at fractions of 24 and 48 and 2... That won't happen today.. and although she does have that 65 beyer on the off and yes she is 3----2-0-0 at the distance... she is also O for 5 on the OFF.. So yes,, alot to like,, a little to not like and certainly a better than most shot at winning this.. another negative,,, Jockey's first mount of the meet.. Tariners second starter of the meet... 24 starts 3 wins... the 3, 4, 9 all have 3 wins in 11 starts or less... But I'm going to look at the horse

[Suff]

Originally posted by ridersup
Love your analysis of both races and like you I believe this could be boxcar double and exactas in both races. Some people say to stay away from races such as this but I look upon them as an opportunity for a good score.

One addition I would make in the 2d race is # 6 Trumps Native Lady. She actually has the best wet Beyer in the race at 65. The 1, 5, 9, and 12 all show early so closers should prevail. Trumps Native Lady has 2 wins from 3 starts at this tricky distance. She ran a big race against open 10k claimers and is now turning back to her favorite distance. She might be a low price but I think I might use her in some exactas.

In any event nice analysis and good luck.

[Suff]

Originally posted by crackers
Albarado did not ride in NJ this year, he was based at Arl. The guy your thinking of is Roberto AlVarado who rode at Col. this summer. Robbie is the go to man of Tom Amoss at the Fr Gr's. [B]

The Jockey I reccommended in my Post is 11 of 54 at the meet and has over 1000 mounts this year and is 11th Nationally in the Jockey standings with 216 wins... and your correct he did'nt get a mount in Jersey this year.. But the other 5 attributes I expressed are correct.. Your comment would give some the impression I had the wrong JOCKey in mind,,, I have the right Jockey,, just I was incorrect that he had gotten any Jersey Mounts. Thanks for staightening me out.

[rrbauer]

FWIW

I think Albarado was in the top-10 at the spring meet in KEE.

KEE dirt surface doesn't dry out as fast as CD and will get Muddy as the day goes on, if they didn't seal it before the rain.

Because its a short meet, KEE seldom takes races off the turf, regardless of how much rain they get.

All of this and $2 gets you a small one at Starbucks!

[Suff]

its noon.. I'm 20 mins from Suffolk downs.. Got my Cash stuffed down deep in my pockets and I'm heading out the door.. stopping at Starbucks for a Coffee and scone and then its "SHOW TIME" MOMMA needs a new a pair of shoes... Go baby Go

[Suff]

race 2... 4-3 $45.00 EX.

[ridersup]

The 6 horse finnished the tri at $172. Missed win bet but caught $21 Q. Don't play tri's. Nice cappin.

[Suff]

yes .. thanks... 45 exacta was a good won considering they were in the top 3 or 4 FAV's... it was a pretty good hit. early in the day , but I went down hill from there and had a losing day... a fairly bad/big losing day too... I have probably played 4 superfectas in my life,, its just not a bet I do,, But the horse Mt Vaughn I liked, ran 2nd to the 2-5 favorite and that was a $2800.00 supa.. and I kinda kick myself for not playing 1-2-all-all or at least a 1-2-xxx-xxx... but scince I don't play supas... its OK.

One of those days where I could'nt get out of my own way.. and I went HEAVY on that 11 horse "Talk cheap"... in the 5th Because I had the exacta in the 2nd.. MT vaughn in the 4th and I thought I was "Feeling it".... So I put the house on him.. and he ran very poorly and the mood changed and it was all dark and grim from there... I was back home when the 8th at keeneland went off.. I did play a PICK 3 on my way out that won and paid $136.00,,, Gonna shoot over and cash that and play my Double at NYRA in lil while.