NFL week 11

[Valuist]

YTD 12-11, no plays last weekend

New Orl -3 1/2--back breaking loss last week for Bengals, who are free falling in a 1-5 slump the past 6 games. Chemistry is bad and the defense has obvious problems after giving up 42 pts.....in the second half.

Dallas +1---don't like the matchup from the Colts perspective. They want to throw; Dallas is good against the pass. Colts can't stop the run and Dallas is more than capable on the ground. OTOH, the Colts seemed to have played better on the road but eventually it will catch up to them. They are not as strong as last year's team; too many injuries on defense.

Oakland +9 1/2--any time you get more than 7 pts in a low totalled game, taking the dog is the fundamentally "right" thing to do. Green is back starting after 3 whole days of practice. Raiders D hasn't been that bad and Green could be rusty.

Tenn/Phil OVER 43---I expect Philly to blitz Young often. Maybe he'll make a couple plays but they'll probably force a few turnovers along the way. I was tempted to play the 13 here although I hate laying double digits in the NFL. Reid isn't afraid to go for the kill when he can.

Houston -1---showing some signs of life; just beat Jax in Jax. Buffalo off deceptive 1 pt loss; they were beat up on the line of scrimmage but had a fumble return and 80 yd kick return to stay in the game.

SD/Denver OVER 42---I know Denver hasn't given up much but the Colts were able to put up over 30 on them and SD's O isn't far off from Indy. As for SD, they gave up over 500 yds and 40 pts w/out Merriman last week. Could be a shootout.

[boomman]

Valuist posted:NFL week 11
YTD 12-11, no plays last weekend

New Orl -3 1/2--back breaking loss last week for Bengals, who are free falling in a 1-5 slump the past 6 games. Chemistry is bad and the defense has obvious problems after giving up 42 pts.....in the second half. In fact this is the match-up of opposite chemistry sides...Saints have great chemistry and getting better each week under rookie coach, Bungles are mailing it in on defense-Cincy probably better team, but many internal problems

Dallas +1---don't like the matchup from the Colts perspective. They want to throw; Dallas is good against the pass. Colts can't stop the run and Dallas is more than capable on the ground. OTOH, the Colts seemed to have played better on the road but eventually it will catch up to them. They are not as strong as last year's team; too many injuries on defense. A guy said to me that colts are winning Super Bowl...I said name your price!!! Can't ever see a one dimensional team winning it all (Just ask KC when they started 9-0 3 years ago with no defense) Colts win on guts and have overachieved, but 1 point wins at home over Tenn and Buff, are you kidding me? Party almost over-Dallas does match up with them greatly, as long as T.O doesn't throw the game away with crucial dropped passes-Note to Tuna: Throw it to Glenn!!!

Oakland +9 1/2--any time you get more than 7 pts in a low totalled game, taking the dog is the fundamentally "right" thing to do. Green is back starting after 3 whole days of practice. Raiders D hasn't been that bad and Green could be rusty. Everyone on this game talking about the return of Trent Green and how rusty he will be...That may be true, but that isn't the reason Oak will cover. The reasons they will cover, are:
A) They ALWAYS cover in KC
B) Tony Gonzalez is out with a sprained shoulder
c) They lose Tony not only in the passing game, but he helps greatly on the O line, as they are beset with injuries there as well. Oak plays decently enough on defense to keep this close

Tenn/Phil OVER 43---I expect Philly to blitz Young often. Maybe he'll make a couple plays but they'll probably force a few turnovers along the way. I was tempted to play the 13 here although I hate laying double digits in the NFL. Reid isn't afraid to go for the kill when he can. Philly will have their way with that secondary... if they don't cover, the game WILL go over 43 because I see Philly scoring over 30 themselves

Houston -1---showing some signs of life; just beat Jax in Jax. Buffalo off deceptive 1 pt loss; they were beat up on the line of scrimmage but had a fumble return and 80 yd kick return to stay in the game. I keep looking for Texans to let down, but they keep coming to play every week-tough game to cap, but Kubiak might be coach of the year, especially being competitive with that group

SD/Denver OVER 42---I know Denver hasn't given up much but the Colts were able to put up over 30 on them and SD's O isn't far off from Indy. As for SD, they gave up over 500 yds and 40 pts w/out Merriman last week. Could be a shootout. I'm not sure that it will be a shootout with Jake at QB for Den, but SD has been unstoppable on O, and Denver's D Backs gamble way too much, Rivers could burn them early and often...

[skate]

ok boomman:


Tenn/Phil OVER 43---I expect Philly to blitz Young often. Maybe he'll make a couple plays but they'll probably force a few turnovers along the way. I was tempted to play the 13 here although I hate laying double digits in the NFL. Reid isn't afraid to go for the kill when he can. Philly will have their way with that secondary... if they don't cover, the game WILL go over 43 because I see Philly scoring over 30 themselves


But how about the second half?

[BetHorses!]

You got the best of the Houston line, up to -3 now. Good Job. Actually Pinny moved the game late. Weird

Good Luck.

[Valuist]

I think linemakers aren't hesitant to move a line from 1 straight to 3 if they are getting one way action because they know "2" is a pretty rare point differential.

Adding one more total: NE/GB OVER 45 1/2-- two starters in NE's secondary are out. Both teams should be able to throw the ball all day, which should mean a high scoring game.

[BetHorses!]

I think linemakers aren't hesitant to move a line from 1 straight to 3 if they are getting one way action because they know "2" is a pretty rare point differential.



Or they did not want Bills +7.5 for size coming in on six point teasers.

[SAL]

Oakland/KC under 36-Although Trent Green returns at QB this week, there is no reason to expect him to be very effective off the long layoff. KC is also missing 4 starters on offense this week, including TE Tony Gonzales. The Raider D has been playing very well lately. But we know their problems on offense. Rumors flying that Aaron Brooks may start, but I don't think that will help much.

San Diego +3 vs Denver-Denver's offense continues to struggle. They couldn't run at all vs Oakland last week, and Plummer was not productive either. Their defense has kept them in almost every game, but as we saw with Indy, they can get scored on by a good offensive team. I'll take the points here.

NY Jets +7 vs Chicago-The Jets played well in New England last week, and now get points at home against a team that is playing their 2nd of 3 straight road games. I'm not sold on Chicago's greatness enough to lay a TD on the road.

Tennessee +13 vs Philadelphia-Tenessee has responded off of good efforts as heavy dogs to play well again. This is a big line for Philly to lay here, I don't think they're that good. Philly will probably win this, but I'll take the generous points.

Last week 4-1 Season 19-14-2

[Valuist]

Sal-

You've been rolling the past couple weeks.

[Valuist]

4-3 on the week; 16-14 on season