Bet Horses or Jockeys?

[Milleruszk]

There is an article in today's DRF about a big bettor who bet at least $2,000 on every horse that Calvin Borel was scheduled to ride on the Churchill Downs card on Wednesday. Borel took off all of his mounts on Wednesday and none of the horses he was scheduled to ride won. At the first flash some of these horses were 4-5 before drifting up. I suppose this reinforces the handicapping axiom that you bet horses not jockeys! Full story at......
http://www.drf.com/news/article/80543.html

[cj's dad]

Several years ago, D Wayne Lukas was asked about jockey choice as a rider had switched to a different mount in one of the big races and his comment (and I'm paraphrasing here) went something like "the first time I see a jockey carry a horse across the finish line. I'll be concerned about rider choice".

Strange that his career seems to have fallen on hard times!!:ThmbDown:

[Valuist]

In the past week or two, most of Borel's mounts have been opening up at lower than anticipated odds. Some drift upward, and some not.

Before the meet started, who would've thought that Borel would win more races than Leparoux and Bejarano COMBINED?

[Overlay]

The jockey is certainly not the be-all and end-all of betting decisions, but I find it hard to overlook the disproportionate share of races won by a small percentage of the jockeys at any race meeting. To me, that consistent trend results from a combination of differing natural abilities among riders, plus trainers' efforts to assure that well-conditioned horses get the best possible trip. Betting with those percentages figures to be more productive than betting against them.

[xfile]

more guys like him are need for overlay bettors like me :cool:

[Bruddah]

Trainer and Jockey combinations. Especially, in meets held, early in the year. Just a preference which has made me $$$. :jump:

[Overlay]

more guys like him are need for overlay bettors like me :cool:

I understand your point, and agree that hot jockeys are frequently overbet. But as long as they are not used as the sole determinant of a wager, and their influence is taken in proper proportion to other handicapping factors in judging a horse's overall winning probability so that you can make a decision as to whether the horse is offering betting value, I think jockeys are worth including in the player's considerations.

[kitts]

I have had some success using the "running style" of a jockey, a factor developed by HDW. Some jockeys really have a dominant style that they prefer, sometimes at the expense of the horse.

[Milleruszk]

It appears that the guy who made these bets was basing his wagers solely on the jockey. He was not paying attention and did not cancel his wagers after Borel took off his mounts.

[Whirlaway]

Borel Calvin H. @ current CD meet.

# of horses: 96
# of winners: 22
win pct.: 23%
$ invested: 192
$ returned: 430
ROI: $2.24

[skate]

I understand your point, and agree that hot jockeys are frequently overbet. But as long as they are not used as the sole determinant of a wager, and their influence is taken in proper proportion to other handicapping factors in judging a horse's overall winning probability so that you can make a decision as to whether the horse is offering betting value, I think jockeys are worth including in the player's considerations.

well, it goes without saying, consider the jock at some time along your capping.
but to what %? my % would be very small, no big deal here, it is the way i view a race, overall.

if i like a horse, the odds may get me Off the horse, but Never, would i "not" consider a horse (that i already like) because i do not like the jock.
not saying, others should follow...

[Stevie Belmont]

Always bet the horse....
Trainers and jockeys should be considered, but they need the horse, and thats a fact

Jockey cappers are goofs in general.

[Tom]

I have had some success using the "running style" of a jockey, a factor developed by HDW. Some jockeys really have a dominant style that they prefer, sometimes at the expense of the horse.

I just started to look at this factor - how do jockeys perform on E, P, S L horses. I use the HTR K rating as my control. Interesting stuff. What do yo do if your E horse in a race full of speedbals has an S jockey on him? interesting stuff.

[Tom]

A lot of horses need the trainer. Or vet.:bang:

[Valuist]

A trainer can make a mediocre horse good, if he has the right "elixirs, hay and oats".

[Bruddah]

is a strong qualifying factor in meets held early in the Year. Knowing the trainers and how they point their horses toward other races, to be held in the meet or at a meet they will be shifting to, yields pricey winners. I am a meet specific, trainer and jockey player. I keep very specific notes and stats on both the jockies and trainers. Included are notes on the horses they will likely bring back the next year. There have been many nice payoffs, with the trainer repeating the same circumstances, with the same horse the next year. 95% of the betting public forgets about these pricey jewels, from year to year.

[JustRalph]

I just started to look at this factor - how do jockeys perform on E, P, S L horses. I use the HTR K rating as my control. Interesting stuff. What do yo do if your E horse in a race full of speedbals has an S jockey on him? interesting stuff.


Tom, if I bet on a horse that is a speedball with an S type jock........you can be sure that no matter what kind of horse it is...........the jock will try to completely alter the horses style and run me way up the track. Never Friggin fails!

[Hosshead]

Tom, if I bet on a horse that is a speedball with an S type jock........you can be sure that no matter what kind of horse it is...........the jock will try to completely alter the horses style and run me way up the track. Never Friggin fails!That's one (good) thing about playing top (or near the top) jocks, they try to fit the horse's running style, otherwise they wouldn't have enough wins to be a "top" jock.
The better a jock is, at riding with the horse's style, the more wins he will get.

[CryingForTheHorses]

Always bet the horse....
Trainers and jockeys should be considered, but they need the horse, and thats a fact

Jockey cappers are goofs in general.


In my years working with horses,These guys thinikng a fast horse slows down with a bad jockey makes for some nice odds.If you have the horse in the right spot, It wont matter who is on him as he will win as long as the rider steers him clear!! Why I have come to this conclusion is because I have been a master at giving the little guys a chance and winning with him

[CryingForTheHorses]

A lot of horses need the trainer. Or vet.:bang:

Very true Tom.The biggest thing for a horse is to have a trainer who can tell the vet whats wrong and direct treatment. LOTS of trainers nowadays rely on the vet to tell them what is wrong.

[1st time lasix]

Only time a jocky might influence my play is if a top jock rode both horses in previous and selects one over other. it might upgrade one and downgrade the other among my contenders. Another time i might notice is if a trainer drops his horse down and switches to a top jock....That is a potential tip of of intention. Other than that .....I love to see overbet trainer/jock combos on a potentially overbet fav {Pletcher/JR} I take dead aim against.

[classhandicapper]

It's been a long time since I've been as down on the NY jockey colony as I am now. There isn't a single rider I am very pleased about having on my horse other than Johnny Velasquez.

[46zilzal]

between the two choices just ask yourself who is running and who is the passenger and you have the answer.