PDA

View Full Version : Computer Handicapping Heads


Stevie Belmont
11-15-2006, 01:08 AM
Who here uses a computer program to do the handicapping for them. Do you depend on the software for the selections? Or you use it as a tool? Curious.

xfile
11-15-2006, 06:19 AM
Who here uses a computer program to do the handicapping for them. Do you depend on the software for the selections? Or you use it as a tool? Curious.

Mostly a very "handy" tool. I look for the overlays and they can be picked anywhere in the top half echelon. It does do all the handicapping for me but not the final betting selection. :cool:

arkansasman
11-15-2006, 07:04 AM
I use my own computer model that handicaps and tells me what to bet and how much

sjk
11-15-2006, 07:42 AM
I let the computer to all the work.

shanta
11-15-2006, 08:00 AM
Who here uses a computer program to do the handicapping for them. Do you depend on the software for the selections? Or you use it as a tool? Curious.

I've been using the "human computer" (brain) and raw unadjusted data from the Racing Form since 9/01.

No software(except what's between the ears) for the first time in 15 years.
Rich

JimG
11-15-2006, 08:27 AM
Good question. My answer mirrors the answer given by poster xfile earlier in the thread.

Jim

TravisVOX
11-15-2006, 09:17 AM
I personally find it very risky for a machine top pick winners in such a dynamic and subjective game.

Dave Schwartz
11-15-2006, 09:29 AM
It takes me three buttons to make all my wagers in each race. (I am working to get it down to one.) No user decisions at all. And it is profitable.


Dave

andicap
11-15-2006, 09:34 AM
Tool, tool, tool. Put five people in a room with HTR (or CJ's figs which I also use) and you'll likely get three to five different picks.

I do let HTR pick contenders, but under MY criteria and MY pacelines. And I generally override at least one of them.

BUT there are times when I have disagreed with the HTR printout and paid the price. Can you say War Emblem in the Derby? So I am very very careful about going against the program on longshots (my pacelines of course).

But it's not really the program, just the figures crunched by the program.

For me computer software is basically a very smart calcuator on super-ampethemines.

Another thing HTR lets me do is download track profiles into a spreadsheet where I can manipulate them, compute energy figures with my formulas, calcuate energy pars, etc.

I would be happy to share what I do in this regard with other HTR users (copyright issues restrict me from sharing with non HTR users. Blame Equibase.)

Also, Ken Massa of HTR made me (for a price of course) a custom version of his program that fits into my personal handicapping style and lets me look at a race in several different ways on a few different screens. I can see which horses have the best late figures at today's distance structure/surface over the past 6 months for example. Or who has the best overall velocity for the past 45 and 90 days. Or the past 6 races (for horses coming off layoffs or 2nd/3rd off layoffs -- this gets me a lion's share of my longshots.)

JustMissed
11-15-2006, 11:56 AM
It takes me three buttons to make all my wagers in each race. (I am working to get it down to one.) No user decisions at all. And it is profitable.


Dave

Just curious, how many minutes before post is your program programed to make the wager.

I am assuming it considers the tote odds.

What say ye?

Thanks,

JM

Dave Schwartz
11-15-2006, 12:14 PM
It does not wager automatically. The last button is the "bet" button.

And it is not minutes to post. It is seconds.


Dave

classhandicapper
11-15-2006, 12:33 PM
I can't even imagine automating everything. I use a computer for information purposes.

I feel that high level handicapping requires subjective interpretation of a horse's previous races, the connections, and his likely direction going forward. Even "if I could" computerize eveything, I would feel like I was leaving a lot of money on the table going that route even if I was winning.

I suppose automating everying increases the volume of bets because there's less work, but somehow I suspect it can't be as much fun. Most of the fun comes from digging through every detail, forming an opinion, and then arguing about with other horseplayers before and after the race. If you formed your opinion on automatic pilot, I don't think you can really appreciate the selction and why you made it.

Dan Montilion
11-15-2006, 01:50 PM
I use the puter to gather, store and sort. At handicapping time I lean my trip notes binder on the monitor and use the cpu tower as a hassock.

formula_2002
11-16-2006, 12:54 PM
Who here uses a computer program to do the handicapping for them. Do you depend on the software for the selections? Or you use it as a tool? Curious.

I actually use the computer to generate all my picks.
Then I post then on PA and virtually never bet.
I'm ahead huge. :jump:
As a mater of fact, the two times a year I do bet at the track is when I attend the on track contest at BEL and AQU.
Then again, I never placed a wager at last weekends two day Aqu contest..

Joe M

njcurveball
11-16-2006, 01:15 PM
I
Then again, I never placed a wager at last weekends two day Aqu contest..


Is this free info or do you pay for it?

Zaf
11-16-2006, 02:28 PM
The computer does the handicapping and generates the numbers I need from CJ's Program & HTR. Then I just need to make my betting decisions.

Z

formula_2002
11-16-2006, 02:38 PM
Is this free info or do you pay for it?
Just the $1.00 for each of the bris data files.
I run all that data through my program and, well...
check out www.betitandforgetit.com for some interesting (to me anyway) stuff.
Some of the stuff sends you right back to PA.
kind of neat..I use use both web sites!! :)

njcurveball
11-16-2006, 04:48 PM
Just the $1.00 for each of the bris data files.
:)

AND you do not bet? You just pay for files and go to contests? I hope you do well in them!

best to you,
Jim

SmartyMarty
11-16-2006, 07:52 PM
How do you "computer only" guys adjust for a pronounced track bias on any given day?

PriceAnProbability
11-16-2006, 10:58 PM
Who here uses a computer program to do the handicapping for them. Do you depend on the software for the selections? Or you use it as a tool? Curious.

I use a formula that would be very difficult to make into a software, as it often requires hair-splitting judgment calls, but the result is roughly the same.

Once I assign a power rating to a horse, I throw away the past performances and rely exclusively on that rating (probability) to make my value line (price). I then have fixed rules for constructing an opinion (1/2-3, 1-2/3, etc.) from that line, and rules for converting that into bets.

Generally, when I go against the method, it kicks me hard, so I've learned not to second-guess it, even when it likes a 12-1 to whip a 2-5.

PriceAnProbability
11-16-2006, 11:00 PM
It takes me three buttons to make all my wagers in each race. (I am working to get it down to one.) No user decisions at all. And it is profitable.

Dave


How profitable?

"Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof."

PriceAnProbability
11-16-2006, 11:03 PM
How do you "computer only" guys adjust for a pronounced track bias on any given day?

I don't. I find most superior horses can create superior trips and control the pace anyway.

Some days that hurts, but others I mop up.

Use pace figures if you insist on playing to biases.

Tom
11-16-2006, 11:05 PM
And just how do pace figure play to bias????

PriceAnProbability
11-16-2006, 11:08 PM
And just how do pace figure play to bias????

The strongest pace figure that figures to get the bias is usually the bet in that situation.

I would have thought this was obvious.

andicap
11-16-2006, 11:16 PM
How do you "computer only" guys adjust for a pronounced track bias on any given day?

My program helps me spot potential track biases with the database of results it downloads into a spreadsheet. IF I am playing this way (not always.) I have to watch the races and do some quick calculations after each race involving FPS velocity and energy figures for different calls in the race to see if anything is amiss. E.g. Strong early energy pace but pacesetters still hang on especially at higher odds.

Even if it looks like it is, it's MY judgement as to whether a bias really exists. May not be a speed bias-- could be a rail bias. And I believe biases are overrated anyway (except for weather related reasons or the track super is fooling with the surface, tides, etc. ) . That's different than the inherent structural biases each track has.

More simply, if I'm losing and my review shows that a certain type of horse that the program points out (first fraction for example.) is doing well, that will reorient me for the day.

Bias is sooo tricky because it can be tied up in pace biases as well. There's conflicting evidence, weird results, etc.

Tom
11-16-2006, 11:24 PM
The strongest pace figure that figures to get the bias is usually the bet in that situation.

I would have thought this was obvious.

Oh, sure, if you say so. So if there is a LATE bias, you want the lowest pace fig?

JustRalph
11-17-2006, 12:11 AM
How profitable?

"Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof."

Uh-oh...........here we go..............

Tom
11-17-2006, 12:15 AM
If he considers being profitable extraordinary, what does say about HIs results? :lol:

Dave Schwartz
11-17-2006, 12:48 AM
PriceAnd,

How profitable?

"Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof."


1. There were no "Extraordinary claims."
2. I don't owe you proof of anything.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

formula_2002
11-17-2006, 06:13 AM
How profitable?

"Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof."

This generally leads to a lot of prose code and very few numbers (sometimes, even chest thumping). ;)

One of the guys who offer much backup to many of his statements is Jeff Platt, there are a few others. Do a search on "Jcapper" or "Platt" and you will be certain to spot his incremential odds analysis format.

NoDayJob
11-18-2006, 11:13 PM
My software gives you up to 2 horses for straight play. Input required:
Today's date; Date of Race; Race #; Track Code; Scratches-Names or Numbers; Select From Menu for-Hardcopy/Screen/Save File or various combos; RETURN. Uses major data base suppliers in comma delimited form. Like the idea of hitting only one button, but too lazy to redo code. Mebee someday. Average time per race for screen output 6 seconds, using AMD-64 1.8 ghz computer. Probably a little faster with AMD-64x2 processor.

PriceAnProbability
11-19-2006, 04:23 AM
Oh, sure, if you say so. So if there is a LATE bias, you want the lowest pace fig?

Lowest early pace fig (or best late pace), if I were the type to handicap that way.

PriceAnProbability
11-19-2006, 04:25 AM
PriceAnd,




1. There were no "Extraordinary claims."
2. I don't owe you proof of anything.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

He may not owe me proof of anything, but he's the one selling poducts and making the claims.

Tom
11-19-2006, 11:34 AM
And he is also the one who has proven himslef to many here both in person, in classes, and in his program.
Meanwhile, others here, with nothing but short replies to offer.......:rolleyes:

headhawg
11-19-2006, 11:46 AM
He may not owe me proof of anything, but he's the one selling poducts and making the claims.And you do what here exactly?