Wagering Strategy: real race example Hollywood R6 Saturday

[Robert Fischer]

downlaod free PPs hol r6 http://www.megaupload.com/?d=J24VBOKH

free program http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/instant.cgi?type=inp&country=USA&track=HOL&date=2006-11-11&src=(null)#R6

here I will put some analysis into a race I feel has potential value. Feel free to disagree. The focus is on wagering. Do you wager on this race? Do you pass? What strategy will you use? The past performance can be downloaded from the link above.
should be some interesting replies

[twindouble]

Sorry, I would need DRF past performance to make a decision.

[Robert Fischer]

Race 6 (for turf fm)

notes
-12 horses field at this point. Top two ml-favs are vulnerable. Maybe some value in this race.

1Yes Master (FL)5/1 Tyler Baze1244 GL Doug F. O'Neill - game enough at this level for strong showing?

4Shakin N Dancin (KY)9/2 Corey S. Nakatani1223 CL Ronald W. Ellis - third race lifetime, 4 months off, never raced on grass

5Red State (CA)6/1 Patrick A. Valenzuela 1223 GL Martin F. Jones-somewhat game

7Limited Creole (CA)7/2 Garrett K. Gomez1223 GL Peter Miller- Just one turf start (Win ,statebred allowance, was favorite)

9Ten Downing Street (IRE) (IRE)6/1 David Romero Flores1223 GL James M. Cassidy - Class of this race suits him, 2nd from layoff

13Lured Of The Rings (KY)15/1 Clinton L. Potts1245 GL Ruben Cardenas - long layoff after long layoff(july04/aprl05/today), can rally/surrounded by early speed, can Potts get him up?


Wager Strategy?

I want to key #9 Ten Downing Street. I think that horse has the class here and will be the overlay. Here is an aggressive example:
key 9 each level
$1trifectas
9 w/ 1,4,5,7,13 w/1,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,11,12,13 =$45
+ 1,4,5,7,13 w/9 w/1,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,11,12,13 =$45
+ 1,4,5,7,13 w/1,4,5,7,13 w/9 =$20
Total is $110
Problems that start to occur in this wager - First because the 4 and 13 could be "all or nothing" runners. Second #5RedState is a bit of fringe competitor here. In effect they are costing you more because of the scenarios where they do not fire, you are facing a low payout or excluding other horses. Other than Refusal, the "herd" here seems fairly competitive within itself.

Maybe a more conservative play is in order.

[Robert Fischer]

Sorry, I would need DRF past performance to make a decision.

FYI to all - those are bris ultimate pps

[twindouble]

FYI to all - those are bris ultimate pps

I wouldn't have a clue about reading them, the ultimate to me is the DRF.

[PaceAdvantage]

Sorry, I would need DRF past performance to make a decision.

I must ask then, why muck up the thread if you have no interest in participating in the discussion?

A guy starts a thread about going through an example of wagering strategy, and you are going attempting to dissuade him from ever doing such a thing again because you want the world to know you favor DRF PPs?

Huh? :bang:

[Murph]

Maybe a more conservative play is in order.
I would cut this ticket back some by scratching the runners who are off more than 180 days from my calculations. Then eliminate from the ticket the runners who appear too slow. That will leave me with 5 recent runners who have posted a competetive thorostats speed rating in one of their last three races.

#7 LIMITED CREOLE - 7/2

He looks to be the fastest in the field. He enjoys a 10 point speed figure and power rating advantage over the field after removing the long layoff runners. Early run style, looks to be strong on the lead. Likely winner.

#4 SHAKIN N DANCIN 9/2
#5 RED STATE 6/1

These two are contenders with questions. Shakin' is off 146 days and returning from a good effort for his third start. Eligible to improve, he is noted as a Pressing run style. He will need to improve his past performance to win today. Red State takes a rung up the class ladder for this try. His third race back point to him as a contender today. He may have trouble in a pace contest with Limited Creole though. Both are interesting contenders.

#9 TEN DOWNING STREET 6/1
#2 REFUSAL 30/1
#3 CODE AMOUR 20/1

I will leave Ten Downing Street on the ticket based on his second and third races back. I am not certain what happened to him in the last race. Refusal and Code Armour are included because they are pace ranked runners with a press or off the lead running style. Very capable of picking up spots in the lane as the speed runners back up from chasing Limited Creole.

If Limited Creole does not last, one of the two longshots could score at a price. Check their on track appearance and the tote for clues on how to best use them on your tickets.

That is how I rate the contenders for this field Robert. I don't see a Stronach runner in this field and I didn't use the PP's to recap this race. It appears the thorostats figures may have an error from #9's last race 28 days ago. The three runners out of that race all show a suspiciously low speed rating. It is nearly 50 points behind the contenders ratings, so I am not sure what happened there. Obviously a problem for that race, so use this recap with a grain of salt. I believe my take on #7 will stand the test though.

Murph

[BIG49010]

200 to win on Men Only, I like the name !:lol:

[twindouble]

I must ask then, why muck up the thread if you have no interest in participating in the discussion?

A guy starts a thread about going through an example of wagering strategy, and you are going attempting to dissuade him from ever doing such a thing again because you want the world to know you favor DRF PPs?

Huh? :bang:

If you think I'm "mucking up" your site by saying I use the DRF only, post it in your rules not to mention the DRF and make it public as well. My intention, I can't believe I"m saying this, if you can read was to handicap the race and give my opinion. Not dissuade anyone one. Not only that I've mentioned many times here "I only use the DRF". Nothing new to me. If you can't deal with that so be it!



T.D.

[ponyplayer]

Race 6 (for turf fm)

notes
-12 horses field at this point. Top two ml-favs are vulnerable. Maybe some value in this race.

1Yes Master (FL)5/1 Tyler Baze1244 GL Doug F. O'Neill - game enough at this level for strong showing?

4Shakin N Dancin (KY)9/2 Corey S. Nakatani1223 CL Ronald W. Ellis - third race lifetime, 4 months off, never raced on grass

5Red State (CA)6/1 Patrick A. Valenzuela 1223 GL Martin F. Jones-somewhat game

7Limited Creole (CA)7/2 Garrett K. Gomez1223 GL Peter Miller- Just one turf start (Win ,statebred allowance, was favorite)

9Ten Downing Street (IRE) (IRE)6/1 David Romero Flores1223 GL James M. Cassidy - Class of this race suits him, 2nd from layoff

13Lured Of The Rings (KY)15/1 Clinton L. Potts1245 GL Ruben Cardenas - long layoff after long layoff(july04/aprl05/today), can rally/surrounded by early speed, can Potts get him up?


Wager Strategy?

I want to key #9 Ten Downing Street. I think that horse has the class here and will be the overlay. Here is an aggressive example:
key 9 each level
$1trifectas
9 w/ 1,4,5,7,13 w/1,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,11,12,13 =$45
+ 1,4,5,7,13 w/9 w/1,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,11,12,13 =$45
+ 1,4,5,7,13 w/1,4,5,7,13 w/9 =$20
Total is $110
Problems that start to occur in this wager - First because the 4 and 13 could be "all or nothing" runners. Second #5RedState is a bit of fringe competitor here. In effect they are costing you more because of the scenarios where they do not fire, you are facing a low payout or excluding other horses. Other than Refusal, the "herd" here seems fairly competitive within itself.

Maybe a more conservative play is in order.

My Conservative Play:
9 w 3-5-7 w 3-5-7
3-5-7 w 9 w 3-5-7
3-5-7 w 3-5-7 w 9

$18 Bucks

[Robert Fischer]

Some quality replies.
Two people mentioned #3 Code Amor...


"4Shakin N Dancin (KY)9/2 Corey S. Nakatani1223 CL Ronald W. Ellis - third race lifetime, 4 months off, never raced on grass"
Is the turf a gamble for the second choice ml?- Richter Scale and progeny are primarily dirt. Sire stats show grandsire Habitony Turf-3.6%. Past performances show dam Mountain Dance to have 8 starters and zero turf winners.

[betovernetcapper]

Is the turf a gamble for the second choice ml?- Richter Scale and progeny are primarily dirt. Sire stats show grandsire Habitony Turf-3.6%. Past performances show dam Mountain Dance to have 8 starters and zero turf winners.[/QUOTE]

Shakin N Dancin has some hot conections
Jockey-Trainer combo 50% winners roi +.10
trainer 1st turf 22% winners roi +2.60
trainer dirt to turf 15% winners roi +.96
off 90 days + 23% winners roi +1.65
Given the trainer stats I'd be inclined to overlook his bloodlines. :)

[bettheoverlay]

$110 seems alot for this race with quite a bit of confirmed turf form. I'm always haunted by the question if, long term, I'm better off betting the $110 to win at 6/1.

My approach to this type of race is to look for the bomber that might have a chance of coming in the money, and key on him, surrounded by other more logical horses. The 13 (15-1) has good late pace #s but I haven't any insight into whether late pace is good at 6.5F at Hollywood, or if the outside posts have an advantage or disadvantage.

[JustRalph]

You gotta take a stand in this one.............

9/7 exacta box........and toss in the 2 and 3 under on cheap exotic tickets. I might even put the 2/3/5 on an exacta ticket under the 9 and 7 just for fun.


Somebody is going to try a wire job........ 9? But I don't like Flores in that role. Gomez has the horse to beat on the 7.

But, I do say this one is a good one..........but I don't think you can throw a hundred + at a race like this............take a stand..........if they beat you, dust em off and go on to the next one.........

[betovernetcapper]

I like 4-9 in race 6.
Race 5 $2 dd 28 with 49
race 5 $2 dd 8 with 4 :)

[Zaf]

Incredibly contentious race, I will try a $2 exacta box 3-6-8-13....$24

Z

[Binder]

Win bets 3 and 11
exacta box
4 with 3 11

Good Skill
Binder

[betovernetcapper]

$15-x-x on #4 at EhorseX odds 4.48-1
$10-x-x #9 at BrisBet 6-1

[ceejay]

$1trifectas
9 w/ 1,4,5,7,13 w/1,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,11,12,13 =$45
+ 1,4,5,7,13 w/9 w/1,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,11,12,13 =$45
+ 1,4,5,7,13 w/1,4,5,7,13 w/9 =$20
Total is $110
Problems that start to occur in this wager - First because the 4 and 13 could be "all or nothing" runners. Second #5RedState is a bit of fringe competitor here. In effect they are costing you more because of the scenarios where they do not fire, you are facing a low payout or excluding other horses. Other than Refusal, the "herd" here seems fairly competitive within itself.

Maybe a more conservative play is in order.
What I dislike about this is how deep you went in the 3-hole. Since there's no real opinion on who will finish 3rd I'd just do $9 exactas for the same cost as the first 2 tris.

[Pace Cap'n]

$1 Superfecta......... $16,242.20........... 8-7-1-2
$1 Trifecta............... $1,073.30........... 8-7-1


That has to be the lightest trifecta I've ever seen.

[formula_2002]

Why so many picks and few results posted?
Did I miss something?

Joe M

[DJofSD]

Why so many picks and few results posted?
Did I miss something?


The results speak to the question (8 won by a nose):
6th Race - Hollywood Park - Saturday, November 11th, 2006

Conditions: Allowance, $43,000, Open 3 yo's & up, 6F, Turf.
Off Time: 3:04 Start: 12 went. Good for all. Won driving. Track: Firm Weather: Cloudy 70o
Pedigree: 8 - Forest Phantom, Dark Bay or Brown Gelding, 3, by Running Stag - Luck Abounds by Technology
Fractions: :222, :453, :573, 1:093 (:22.57, :45.78, :57.64, 1:09.75)

# Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
8 Forest Phantom Cohen David 120 66.60 23.20 13.40
7 Limited Creole Gomez Garrett K. 122 4.80 3.20
1 Yes Master Baze Tyler 124 56.50

Wager Type Payoff Winning Numbers Pool
$1 Pick 3 $614.40 1-1-8 (3 Correct) $89,855
$2 Daily Double $342.20 1-8 $30,211
$1 Exacta $132.40 8-7 $306,372
$2 Quinella $85.80 7-8 $18,700
$1 Superfecta $16,242.20 8-7-1-2 $141,290
$1 Trifecta $1,073.30 8-7-1 $259,817
Owner: Maggi Moss
Trainer: Ted H. West
Breeder: Adena Springs (FL)
Also Ran: 2 - Refusal, 9 - Ten Downing Street (IRE), 3 - Code Amour, 12 - Dixie Banker, 5 - Red State, 6 - Men Only, 13 - Lured of the Rings, 11 - Spanky's Ladder (IRE), 4 - Shakin N Dancin
Scratched: Reckless Hero, Racketeer, Signoretto Sig

Did you every see "Let It Ride"?

[Murph]

My favorite key, #7, was just nosed at the wire by a furious closing Forest Phantom, trained by Ted West.

It is interesting to note that both Forest Phantom and Refusal went the last quarter is just under 23.0 seconds. Not bad for NW1X, but I don't know how you can predict that it will happen for a 30-1 shot. I only show four races on turf at the 6F distance in the past 12 months for HOL, all at the allowance level or above.

It looks like Zaf was the only one to tab the winner. His exacta play didn't include the favorite though.

This is an excellent thread and I want to thank everyone for posting their take on the race. We should do this exercise more often! :ThmbUp:

Murph

[joeyspicks]

for me the correct thing to do is simply pass the race!

[Zaf]

Normally for me also, but every once in a while I like to do exacta boxes containing only double-digit odds horses. You need contentious races for that, so I took a flyer.

Z

[skate]

i didnt have the pp figures, so ...?
but to address the question(which i like), if the #9 had enough (25/1?) , in the way of odds, then i would (along with other plays) have an "ALL" in the first spot..when i have my #9 in third.
also, especially at s. cal., i would consider a super play, odds permiting.

key , (to me,) the #9 has got to be ready, to a large degree, and you must have the $1 to play "IT".

i assumed that you really like the #9



downlaod free PPs hol r6 http://www.megaupload.com/?d=J24VBOKH

free program http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/instant.cgi?type=inp&country=USA&track=HOL&date=2006-11-11&src=(null)#R6

here I will put some analysis into a race I feel has potential value. Feel free to disagree. The focus is on wagering. Do you wager on this race? Do you pass? What strategy will you use? The past performance can be downloaded from the link above.
should be some interesting replies

[Robert Fischer]

FREE chart http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/instant_pdf.cgi?type=inc&country=USA&track=HOL&date=2006-11-11&race=6

RACE RECAP Grade = Fail
Analysis
I correctly recognized the opportunity for value in this race. I believe recognizing value opportunity to be an important part of selecting races to spot-play wager on.
Some Components I use to identify a value opportunity:

Vulnerable Favorites
A Group of Contenders
Vulnerable Favorites – Self explanatory.
Group of Contenders – As a group Must cover a certain percentage of Win and Place probability. What is that percentage? An unscientific guess is that 80-90% is more than safe. In reality it depends on the probable payoffs and costs of the wagers involved. The group must not be so large as to raise the cost of wagers beyond profitability.

Key Trifectas – A powerful wager to use in opportunities with a Key Horse in a large enough field.
Key Horse – Must Have a high probability to finish in the money (Win,Place, and Show).

Was this race as a missed opportunity? I believe I made errors in handicapping. If approach is sound, an obvious question presents itself. –
Why Did I Lose?

Vulnerable Favorites(Limited Creole, Shakin n Dancin) – Grade; Pass: Recognized class increase for Limited Creole(2nd). Recognized general vulnerability and surface uncertainty for Shakin n Dancin(last).

Group of Contenders(Limited Creole, Shakin n Dancin, Ten Downing Street, Yes Master, Red State, Lured of the Rings) – Grade; Fail: Did not include Forest Phantom(1st). That much is certain. I feel that this was a handicapping error, rather than an improbable surprise. –First; I had identified the pace opportunity for a late running victory(hence the inclusion of Lured of the Rings), Forest Phantom is a late-running horse. Second; Identified Red State as a fringe competitor and included Red State in the Group of Contenders.- Forest Phantom out-finished Red State(equally suited to dirt/turf) two back in a 6f dirt race. Lastly, Criticized first-on-turf Shakin n Dancin for dirt-breeding. First-on-turf Forest Phantom is by quality turf sire Running Stag, Grand sire is quality influential turf sire Cozzene. Breeding indicated a likely transfer of form/class to turf. Forest Phantom belonged in the Group of Contenders. At $32.30 he should have been automatic.

Excluding Contenders is less certain.
Shakin n Dancin- Felt he was vulnerable. Appeared very talented and has strong connections. There was some potential for a big race, if he did take to the surface.
Lured of the Rings- Obviously has had problems, indicated by layoff schedule. Past Form, Price and late-running style earn a spot in the Group of Contenders. Debatable.

Key Horse – Grade; Fail: Ten Downing Street was a poor choice for a Key Horse. I was looking for an improvement in form due to class level. This was less likely due to Ten Downing Street’s pattern of weak finishes, and the large field of front-runners.
I was not confident in the favorite Limited Creole. This was probably a step up from last. Hindsight shows Limited Creole to be the correct Key Horse. In my opinion the correct decision would be to abstain from using a Key Horse. Handicapping is somewhat personal, and there are those who did assign a high enough probability to key him.

Good Call Murph-
...

#7 LIMITED CREOLE - 7/2

He looks to be the fastest in the field. He enjoys a 10 point speed figure and power rating advantage over the field after removing the long layoff runners. Early run style, looks to be strong on the lead. Likely winner.

... I believe my take on #7 will stand the test though.

Murph

Wagering Strategy

Exacta Box- Group of Contenders [1,4,5,7,8,9,13]
Cost $42 Low pay $14? Actual pay $65
Comments – No
Tri Box - Group of Contenders [1,4,5,7,8,9,13]
Cost $210 Low pay 0$,$40? Actual pay $535
Comments – No
Super Box - Group of Contenders [1,4,5,7,8,9,13]
cost $360 low pay $0 Actual pay bad beat!
Comments - hard to include Refusal 4th without the All which cost $1080 and payed 16,242.20
Dutch- Group of Contenders [1,4,5,7,8,9,13]
Cost $14 payoff range 6, 8.6, 12, 17.6, 32.6, 42.6, 66.6.
Actual pay $66.60
Comments – A curious wager. The win probabilities of the profitable horses would need to be high enough to justify a dutch scenario. In this case, with my opposition to Shakin n Dancin, it was a possibility to consider. Other Dutching Strategies (Excluding the two favorites?) may be more efficient than dutching entire group?

Final Wagering Conclusion: Pass. Not a popular decision, but probably the wise one for me here. My group of contenders was large. Reduction of my Group of Contenders, or finding a Key Horse became necessary. I could not confidently identify a Key Horse. Options included excluding weakest Group of Contenders horse (Lured of the Rings) would reduce tri box to $120 exbox to $30…, Keying Limited Creole 1st,2nd,and 3rd with new Group of Contenders and multiple runners third(or Group of Contenders here), would have also been a successful wager.

“water water everywhere, and nor any drop to drink!”

[Robert Fischer]

CHANGES:
Wagering Strategy

Exacta Box- Group of Contenders [1,4,5,7,8,9,13]
Cost $42 Low pay $14? Actual pay $132
Comments – WORTH CONSIDERING
Tri Box - Group of Contenders [1,4,5,7,8,9,13]
Cost $210 Low pay 0$,$40? Actual pay $1073
Comments – YES
Super Box - Group of Contenders [1,4,5,7,8,9,13]
cost $360 low pay $0 Actual pay bad beat!
Comments - hard to include Refusal 4th without the All which cost $1080 and payed 16,242.20
Dutch- Group of Contenders [1,4,5,7,8,9,13]
Cost $14 payoff range 6, 8.6, 12, 17.6, 32.6, 42.6, 66.6.
Actual pay $66.60
Comments – A curious wager. The win probabilities of the profitable horses would need to be high enough to justify a dutch scenario. In this case, with my opposition to Shakin n Dancin, it was a possibility to consider. Other Dutching Strategies (Excluding the two favorites?) may be more efficient than dutching entire group?


Conclusion- Trifecta Box paid well. Would have to consider the will-pay trifecta probabilities vs expeced winning probabilities to know if this was an "automatic" play.

[JustRalph]

I had two of the four in the big super........ 7-2 but I don't think I would bet the winner back on the replay............whether he needed the race or not :lol:

I can't believe the 2 went off 100-1...........