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View Full Version : Likely Breeders Cup Busts...


Bubbles
10-13-2002, 07:39 PM
Hey all...

I almost put this in selections, but decided against it...

Pre-entries for the Breeders Cup (I WILL NEVER CALL IT BY THE OTHER VERBOSE NAME!!!!!) will be drawn Tuesday. This fact got me to thinking of possible Breeders Cup busts for this year. Here are a few busts for a few races.

DISTAFF-The Beldame was a worse race than it looked. IMPERIAL GESTURE ran the final three-eighths in a pedestrian forty seconds. While she did win by daylight, Summer Colony bounced badly, and what will happen when she has to tangle with not only that rival, but Azeri in a few weeks? Too many ifs.

JUVENILE-This may sound incredibly idiotic, but I don't like SKY MESA. In the Lane's End, he DID romp. BUT the time was pretty slow (1:46 and change for 1 and 1/16 miles). Judging by this showing, he won't like the additional sixteenth, and I think a horse like Kafwain will run him down.

TURF-While he's put in a good year, DENON is another bust. He's tangled with With Anticipation all year, and finally beat that rival when the gray bounced badly in the Turf Classic. I think this distance may be a bit far for the Frankel charge, and I predict With Antcipation will redeem himself.

CLASSIC-While this race is fairly wide-open, there is a bust. TENPINS put in a phenomenal effort in not only winning the Washington Park, but setting a track record at the distance. HOWEVER, the previous track record was fairly slow, and just who did he beat in that race? This is just a hunch, but I think challenging Came Home and Evening Attire is a far cry from edging Generous Rosi.

This'll probably draw up some controversy, and I'd appreciate all opinions on the matter of busts in the Breeders Cup. Later!

superfecta
10-14-2002, 12:14 AM
I will wait till the DRF puts out the entries PP this week before I get too excited,I have a hard time comparing the horses til I can see the races in print in front of me,so stay tuned....

Bubbles
10-14-2002, 02:31 PM
Hey...

I know what you're saying, man. A bunch of people are exactly the same way. I just watch the TV broadcast the races, jot down my opinions, and voice them. In my opinion, that saves me some time. Later!

rrbauer
10-14-2002, 08:27 PM
I think that it's a mistake to get too much "fixation" about a race until you know all of the entrants and have some clue about what the track condition is going to be. That's why I think that making future bets is dumb, unless you are getting HUGE overlays and have inside knowledge about a horse/situation. A case-in-point about the latter: When Gato Del Sol won the Derby the boyfriend of one of Eddie Gregson's assistant trainers had gone to LV and bet the horse $100 @ 30-1 and $200 @ 25-1 in the FB. This was like in February.

GDS won the Derby and paid like $44 to win. So the question becomes how much premium do you require to accept all of the risks and unknowns associated with what is going to happen between the time that the bet is placed and the time that the race is run? I guess if you're betting $10 and looking for some "bragging rights" then it's a moot question. In this case there was a premium in the payoff but it's not much in view of the risk that was taken.

As this thread goes, looking at a past performance and then projecting an Oct 26 effort based on the stated performance is pretty dicey in the absence of other factors; and, consideration of other horses' performances; and, track condition. How many times have you seen a horse "bounce" and still win a race? What are the trainer's intentions? Is he/she pointing the horse for a prep race; or, for the big enchilada? (Many years of watching Charlie Whittingham operate begs the last question!)

So, I think that it's best to try and keep everything in context until you know everything that you can possibly know about a race and its entrants before you make hard judgements about the outcome.

IMHO.

:)

Bubbles
10-15-2002, 04:33 PM
Hey...

I agree totally. I was just taking the televised word of some trainers who said they'd run their horses in the BC.

I also agree about future bets. A lot can happen in a short amount of time, which is why I don't play them.

Bubbles
10-15-2002, 06:33 PM
Hey...

Well, I guess you all were right. My Breeders Cup Classic bust isn't running. Curse my rotten luck! I thought I might have had a chance to win money on horses to beat that one. Now, with Tenpins out, the Classic picture gets very interesting...