PA pick 6 contest?

[chickenhead]

Floating a trial balloon here.

Would anyone be interested in a PA contest for pick 6 wagers? Would seem like a good way to practice your structure. Also, if you've always believed if you only had the bankroll you could kill, well here would be your chance.

Thinking a fairly free set of rules, maybe a 3 month contest. It might be total anarchy if people are allowed to bet any track they want whenever, I was thinking of limiting it to socal and nyra weekends. No forced bets, you can play whatever tickets excite you.

Would probably have some provsion for having to churn a certain percentage of bankroll to be declared victor. Thinking maybe a 25K bank, and you have to churn 50% (?) in tickets to get the grand prize, for which I'd kick in a little.

Any interest in something along those lines? We could work out the details amongst whoever is interested. Either post here or pm me. Not expecting a large group, but say at least 10 guys who are going to see it through would make it worthwhile.

[twindouble]

Floating a trial balloon here.

Would anyone be interested in a PA contest for pick 6 wagers? Would seem like a good way to practice your structure. Also, if you've always believed if you only had the bankroll you could kill, well here would be your chance.

Thinking a fairly free set of rules, maybe a 3 month contest. It might be total anarchy if people are allowed to bet any track they want whenever, I was thinking of limiting it to socal and nyra weekends. No forced bets, you can play whatever tickets excite you.

Would probably have some provsion for having to churn a certain percentage of bankroll to be declared victor. Thinking maybe a 25K bank, and you have to churn 50% (?) in tickets to get the grand prize, for which I'd kick in a little.

Any interest in something along those lines? We could work out the details amongst whoever is interested. Either post here or pm me. Not expecting a large group, but say at least 10 guys who are going to see it through would make it worthwhile.

A better idea would be to crown the guys that hit with the least amount, buying the 6 don't make you a handicapper and none of us have that kind of money anyway.

Another interesting challenge would be evaluating weather it's playable or not with a limited bankroll, crown those guys that pass when they are right.

[chickenhead]

twin, it would be based on ROI..so I think it all comes back to the same thing. Whoever makes the most money would win. Aint that the name of the game?

The reason for the relatively large bank...is I think most people play the pick 6 too thin. THis would be a chance for people to let their hands go a little bit. If you already know how you do on a small bank, this would let you see how you would do with a bigger bank. Maybe you'd do a lot better? Maybe worse. But you're not forced to play big tickets.

Everything is open for discussion, but that's why I framed it initially the way I did.

[twindouble]

twin, it would be based on ROI..so I think it all comes back to the same thing. Whoever makes the most money would win. Aint that the name of the game?

The reason for the relatively large bank...is I think most people play the pick 6 too thin. THis would be a chance for people to let their hands go a little bit. If you already know how you do on a small bank, this would let you see how you would do with a bigger bank. Maybe you'd do a lot better? Maybe worse. But you're not forced to play big tickets.

Everything is open for discussion, but that's why I framed it initially the way I did.

I agree on playing to thin, that's why I have partners but I think it's better to sharpen your handicapping skills coming up with key horses and except the reality that we are not whales. Now, another idea would be to let contestants pick two other partners in that handicapping challenge. Anyway, it's your idea and only my opinion.

T.D.

[chickenhead]

well lets see if we can get people who are at least theoretically interested, and we'll work out the details.

[betovernetcapper]

Count me in-my only concern is picking a large Pic6 (very remote possibility) and not betting it. :(

[Cesario!]

I'd play along with this.

My research has shown that that, after a certain amount, additional per-race (or per wager) capitalization -- the ability to play more combinations -- doesn't aid the bottom line. When everything is reduced to a baseline two dollar bet, the returns are better from simpler wagers. But, due to my own financial limitations (and time constraints), I've only tested it up to a certain amount, which rarely gets me into the deep overlay territory.

I'm fairly close to a belief that it's an illusion -- many players use the ability to have to make cuts in exotic wagers as THE reason for their failure to turn a profit, when the real problems are money management and valueless plays. But, that said, I still harbor a belief to the contrary at the fringes of the exotic pools -- that the ability to find overlay odds when going very deep in aspects of these pools may indeed be a additional benefit of high capitalization.

A contest would be a great way to test it.

Seth

[JPinMaryland]

wouldnt there be a problem if people are picking horses in very small fields? E.g. they pick 3 or all 4 out of a 4 horse field. would you as GM then have to calculate the payoff for that race? hmm

[Buddha]

I would say sure, but we are going to be starting the Ridersup Pick 4 contest next month when AQU goes to the inner, as long as PA opens the forum back up which I was going to ask him to do in about a week. Not sure how many would want to do both, and the P4 contest is in its 4th or 5th year if I am not mistaken

[BillW]

as long as PA opens the forum back up which I was going to ask him to do in about a week.

J,

It's already there :)

Bill

[chickenhead]

ahh yes, forgot about that. That lasts the whole meet?

This can and probably should wait until after.

[RedOne]

It sounds like it would be fun. If it happens count me in!

[TurfRuler]

I like the sound of using a bankroll to play a pick-6 contest. I'd practice playing my 2nd and 3rd choices on the tickets. I believe Buddha's contest can co-exist, just like at the real thing. Only on weekends though, not everyday.

[Buddha]

ahh yes, forgot about that. That lasts the whole meet?


Yea, weekends for the whole inner track meet and special holiday cards

[PlanB]

Count Me In, please. The P6, wow, what an amazing wager. Betting Strategy rules but a crystal ball wouldn't hurt. Yeah, I'd like to try.
late minute edit: Cesario, HUH, explain please.

[ceejay]

I'll play this. I could use the P6 practice.

[Indulto]

Count me in-my only concern is picking a large Pic6 (very remote possibility) and not betting it. bonc,
That's why having no limits to bankroll seems unrealistic. We know a 75K Moby Pick is not reasonable, but neither is a Graham Stone $8 special. C-HD’s recently discussed $3600 seems reasonable for a BC P6 with 14-entry fields of similar quality, but too high for a regular P6. A better idea would be to crown the guys that hit with the least amount, buying the 6 don't make you a handicapper and none of us have that kind of money anyway. TD,
I like that concept, but I doubt there will be many times when there would be multiple hits requiring ROI to determine the winner. Again I would support investment limits which could vary depending on the total number entered in all legs. And nobody's going to hone their real-world skills with an excessive imaginary bankroll.

Rather than putting up contest fees, it might be even more fun if participants could split an agreed-upon set of combinations within the established limit

I’m game. Hope this is one fowl idea that can get off the ground without gobbling or attracting flies. ;)

[Steve 'StatMan']

I could see getting in, but yes, the Inner Track Pick 4 contest does compete with it. (Though for the late Pick 4, it also give us a chance at a good head start on the Pick 6).

Have to agree, So. Cal & NY are the most attractive Pick 6's. The pools at other tracks like my beloved Hawtorne grow so slowly, that most days I wouldn't want to use it in the contest in the hopes of getting an under $5,000 contest score. Although letting people pick their tracks, and taking the risks of lower potential contest scores. But for someone volunteering to keep score, that would be a bit of a chore.

Speaking of payoffs, how would one handle it if no live tickets were hit? The carroyover could be given to those selecting it.

But then there are the consolation payoffs (5 of 6's, 4 of 6's). Even 5 of 6's combos included as part-wheels when the same player has 6-of-6.

Just some thoughts to help (clear?, muddy?) the waters.

[chickenhead]

Looks like there is some interest, but yes the pick 4 contest starts fairly soon.

I think what we'll do is delay the start of this for awhile, and start sometime after the new year.

As for payoffs, I'd calculate just as if the tickets were actually bet into the pool.

[twindouble]

I could see getting in, but yes, the Inner Track Pick 4 contest does compete with it. (Though for the late Pick 4, it also give us a chance at a good head start on the Pick 6).

Have to agree, So. Cal & NY are the most attractive Pick 6's. The pools at other tracks like my beloved Hawtorne grow so slowly, that most days I wouldn't want to use it in the contest in the hopes of getting an under $5,000 contest score. Although letting people pick their tracks, and taking the risks of lower potential contest scores. But for someone volunteering to keep score, that would be a bit of a chore.

Speaking of payoffs, how would one handle it if no live tickets were hit? The carroyover could be given to those selecting it.

But then there are the consolation payoffs (5 of 6's, 4 of 6's). Even 5 of 6's combos included as part-wheels when the same player has 6-of-6.

Just some thoughts to help (clear?, muddy?) the waters.


In my opinion it's more important to hone your handicapping and wagering skills than stabbing at pick 6's with money you don't have, plus being forced to play a card you just don't like knowing it's to risky contest or not. BC comes to mind.

Handicapping and winning gambling on the horses is an accumulation of many factors that come together presenting opportunity. Those conditions don't come up every time you look at a race or card. You just can't reach out and pull it out of nowhere. I pass on many more P6's than I play through out the year for that reason and I'm more apt to play it when there's a carryover, still taking into consideration what I just said.

If I were to get involved that put me between a rock and a hard place, for the simple reason I have playing partners when it comes to the pick 6 and they wouldn't take kindly of me posting my picks here. On the BC I posted to one member and they were here when I did that, no problem because we had no play. I'm not suggesting everyone would jump on my plays, it just wouldn't be an ethical thing to do. The only way to get around that would be to just post the first leg, then post the other legs after but you would have to time stamp all your picks prior to the first leg some how.

For those of you that are interest in the contest, I would suggest a different approach. Contestants should be able to pick what track they want to play and sellect what pick 6 they want to play at anytime through out the contest period. Maybe making it manditory to play what ever number of 6's you come up with along with a ceiling on investment. Any pick 5 or 4 should be included, without them one can get cleaned out in a hurry it's part of the 6 anyway.

Anyway, I did some thinking on it and good luck,

T.D.

[TurfRuler]

Of all the appetite wetting, chickening out, lame excuses for not playing a contest I've ever heard.

[toetoe]

CH,

The idea of a minimal churn is good. Also, maybe a minimum of plays, but not every weekend day, necessarily. I think it can teach players a thing or two, as have the Riders Up and the other one, that Falconridge finished second. (Please send five bucks for foregoing plug, Rich. :D )

[twindouble]

Of all the appetite wetting, chickening out, lame excuses for not playing a contest I've ever heard.


What's going on? Is everyone going to get on my case? If I wasn't interested I wouldn't have put the time in thinking about it would fit in for me. I still haven't ruled it out completely. What am supposed to do, spend the time handicapping 6 races and not play it if I think it's very playable. Like I said, my partners wouldn't go along with posting it unless we can do what I was suggesting. No one answered that question, instead you say I'm chickening out. Besides I waste enough time posting two or three paragraphs, let along four. :bang: What can say, it's not easy for me. Most of you guys can pump them out like no tomorrow. I have check and correct spelling, read it a half dozen times and read it again after I post and still can't get my thinking across..:bang:

'I am what I am what I am'. Cut me some slack because that's all your going to get. PA might boot me anyway.

What I was suggesting was, "if we can find a way to post the 5th race, then the last 5, also time and date the play some how with all 6, that would open the door for me. In other words the first leg is gone then I can post the rest.

[Indulto]

What's going on? Is everyone going to get on my case? If I wasn't interested I wouldn't have put the time in thinking about it would fit in for me. I still haven't ruled it out completely. What am supposed to do, spend the time handicapping 6 races and not play it if I think it's very playable. Like I said, my partners wouldn't go along with posting it unless we can do what I was suggesting. No one answered that question, instead you say I'm chickening out. Besides I waste enough time posting two or three paragraphs, let along four. :bang: What can say, it's not easy for me. Most of you guys can pump them out like no tomorrow. I have check and correct spelling, read it a half dozen times and read it again after I post and still can't get my thinking across..:bang:

'I am what I am what I am'. Cut me some slack because that's all your going to get. PA might boot me anyway.

What I was suggesting was, "if we can find a way to post the 5th race, then the last 5, also time and date the play some how with all 6, that would open the door for me. In other words the first leg is gone then I can post the rest.TD,
Who would want to prohibit partially-delayed, partnered, professional-quality picks posted precisely prior to post-time preventing prompt Player Pool participation using your selections? ;)

Your intimidating presence, however, might discourage competition unless you were precluded from contest payoffs. :D

BTW this "nobody loves me, everybody hates me" routine is giving cyberfarts a bad name. I'm willing to bet that I'm shown the exit before you are, so calm down and reach for a bag of peanuts. :bang:

[twindouble]

TD,
Who would want to prohibit partially-delayed, partnered, professional-quality picks posted precisely prior to post-time preventing prompt Player Pool participation using your selections? ;)

Your intimidating presence, however, might discourage competition unless you were precluded from contest payoffs. :D

BTW this "nobody loves me, everybody hates me" routine is giving cyberfarts a bad name. I'm willing to bet that I'm shown the exit before you are, so calm down and reach for a bag of peanuts. :bang:

They say eating peanuts playing the horses is bad luck. Yes, you, me and Skinny are on thin ice here. :D

Indulto, lets not get carried away with the professional comparison. I do get lucky now and then. I'm not saying everyone would jump on my picks, I just couldn't ethicly do it with partners. That's my only concern, like I said I just might want to play it for real.

Another point I was trying to bring out is, setting the contest up whereas we could pick our own track, play a pick 6 when we think it's playable and not be tied down to any given card. Pick a time period for the contest, require a set number of plays for that period with a ceiling on investment. The contest could go on for a year, 6 MO or less. One good score last year put me firmly in the black, pick 5's helped a lot along the way. Anyway, put your handicapping and wagering strategy to the test with a reasonable investment. That's my thinking.

T.D.