Request for Computer Study

[PriceAnProbability]

Could someone do a cross-check on what happens when Howard Wolfendale and Scott lake have two horses entered in a race, and they are the top two betting choices?

Often enough to pay for a vacation to Aspen during ski season, I have seen this pair run up the track when their horses laid over the field.

[cj]

If their horses ran up the track, wouldn't it mean the other horses laid over them?

[PriceAnProbability]

If their horses ran up the track, wouldn't it mean the other horses laid over them?

Not in the PPs.

Maybe the two horses just kill each other in the pace and both sind up off the board.

[njcurveball]

Using todays stats, Scott Lake wins 38% with favorites. ( 338 for 900).

Wolfendale wins 37% with favorites (54 for 147).

Your premise is that IF both are in the race and they have the first and second choices, they BOTH run out?

Yet, they still have high percentages with favorites?

This is as opposed to other "name" trainers, like Mike Pino 28% with favorites (29 for 103) or Phil Schoenthal 26% (20 for 77).

I think your post is very similar to baseball fans saying Arod strikes out EVERY TIME with men on base. Sure you have seen it happen a few times, but many other times he got a hit and people just didn't notice.

best to you,
Jim

[RonTiller]

Going back to Aug 1st 2006, I found 13 cases where Lake and Wolfendale both had horses in the same race and were the 1st and 2nd favorites.

The favorite won 6 times, came in 2nd once and 3rd twice.
The 2nd favorite won once, came in 2nd 6 times and 3rd once.
There were 2 races where both finished out of the money.

Going further back, its more of the same. As njcurveball pointed out, its just selective memory, something we are all victims of.

Ron Tiller
HDW

[PriceAnProbability]

Going back to Aug 1st 2006, I found 13 cases where Lake and Wolfendale both had horses in the same race and were the 1st and 2nd favorites.

The favorite won 6 times, came in 2nd once and 3rd twice.
The 2nd favorite won once, came in 2nd 6 times and 3rd once.
There were 2 races where both finished out of the money.

Going further back, its more of the same. As njcurveball pointed out, its just selective memory, something we are all victims of.

Ron Tiller
HDW

Given that when they have the top two choices, their average odds are also relatively low (does it matter if you only include cases where they are 5-2 or lower or 2-1 or lower), 7 for 13 is not exactly stellar for getting one of them home. Even 2 out of 13 for both out of the money is pretty odd.

By the way, were the two races this occurred in at Delaware this year? I saw this twice in a one-week period there.

[speedking]

I would be much more interested in knowing how often the longer priced half of the entry wins.

speedking

[RonTiller]

7 for 13 is not exactly stellar for getting one of them home.
I guess we'll have to disagree on that one. Favorites overall win approximately 33% of the time. One of the first 2 favorites wins approxinmately 55% of the time. Mileage will vary depending on how you slice up the pie. In this small sample, the favorite won 46% - I personally would call that stellar. One of the first 2 favorites won 54% of the time - right on target and in fact unusual for such a small sample.

Even 2 out of 13 for both out of the money is pretty odd.
I randomly picked 2 race cards on Nov 1st: Aqu and BM.

Aqueduct had 2/9 favorites win and 0/9 2nd favorites win. In fact, the best the 2nd favorites did was one 2nd and one 3rd. There were 3 races where the 1st and 2nd favorites both finished out of the money.

Bay Meadows had 5/8 favorites win (very good even factoring in the smaller average field size) and one race where the 1st and 2nd favorites both finished out of the money.

Both favorites finishing out of the money is just not odd. I'm not trying to pick on you at all. The visuals of this pair's horses running up the track twice in one week are very powerful and have clearly left a lasting impression. I've had similar experiences, but in each case I examined, my observations just did not hold up over the course of more races. But I still found it difficult to dissuade myself that what I SAW was a representative sample of a larger picture - epecially if I had money in the race.

Ron Tiller
HDW

[PriceAnProbability]

I guess we'll have to disagree on that one. Favorites overall win approximately 33% of the time. One of the first 2 favorites wins approxinmately 55% of the time. Mileage will vary depending on how you slice up the pie. In this small sample, the favorite won 46% - I personally would call that stellar. One of the first 2 favorites won 54% of the time - right on target and in fact unusual for such a small sample.


I randomly picked 2 race cards on Nov 1st: Aqu and BM.

Aqueduct had 2/9 favorites win and 0/9 2nd favorites win. In fact, the best the 2nd favorites did was one 2nd and one 3rd. There were 3 races where the 1st and 2nd favorites both finished out of the money.

Bay Meadows had 5/8 favorites win (very good even factoring in the smaller average field size) and one race where the 1st and 2nd favorites both finished out of the money.

Both favorites finishing out of the money is just not odd. I'm not trying to pick on you at all. The visuals of this pair's horses running up the track twice in one week are very powerful and have clearly left a lasting impression. I've had similar experiences, but in each case I examined, my observations just did not hold up over the course of more races. But I still found it difficult to dissuade myself that what I SAW was a representative sample of a larger picture - epecially if I had money in the race.

Ron Tiller
HDW

Check the odds of the favorites in question against the odds of the typical favorite.

[njcurveball]

51 winners from 85 races won with odds less than 3-1 in fields with 2 or more horses less than 3-1 on Breeders Cup Day. If you could choose the right horse in these races, you would win well over 50% with close to a $5 mutuel.

Betting all of them was not prudent. 51 winners from 187 bets at $5 will not puff up a bankroll.

There were 17 races where 3 horses were under 3-1, in those, 10 winners were under 3-1. Just about the same average as for 2 horses (41 for 68).

I only counted 4 times ALL the horses under 3-1 were out of the money. A long time ago this was the basis for a Dr. Z spot play. If you can find overlays in the place or show pools with horses less than 3-1 in these races you SHOULD make a profit.

This is much different than just looking at the top 2 favorites. But if you really can find a pair of trainers who both run out in races like this, you are bound to make money!

4AQU 3,2
6AQU 7,6
3BEU 3,1
3CD 1,5 (Dreaming of Anna, Cash Included)
-- 8CD 14,13 (Pine Island, Fleet Indian)
5CD 1,4 (Ouija Board. Wait a While)
9CRC 1,5
8CRC 8,2,5
2CRC 1,4
10CRC 3,1,5
5CRC 2,5
7CRC 2,1
2CT 5,2
3CT 5,1
6CT 1,2
7CT 1,2,3
4DED 3,7
9DED 5,1,3
10DED 4,3
6DEL 1,2
1DEL 3,1
2DEL 1,7
5DEL 2,1
7DEL 3,1,2
9HAW 1,5
1HAW 2,4,3
5HAW 5,1
4HOL 1,2
5HOL 2,3,4
1HOO 2,6
5HOO 3,1
7HOO 3,1
-- 6HOO 9,8
4LRL 6,1
8LRL 1,3,2
6LRL 1,3
1LRL 3,1
7LRL 9, 1 (ent)
7MED 1,6,5
9MED 4,2
1MED 8,3,2
3MED 2,1
6MED 1,6
8MED 1,2
2MED 1,4
10MNR 1,6
9MNR 1,3
8MNR 3,9
1PHA 7,1
4PHA 1,2
7PHA 4,2
5PHA 2,1
7RET 8,2
1RET 2,6,1
2RET 1,2
6RET 5,1
10RET 1,6
3SUF 3,2,4
5SUF 4,7,1
-- 7SUF 9,6
6SUF 2,1,3
12TDN 1,7
6TDN 2,5,4
2TDN 2,1
-- 2TUP 6,5
1TUP 4,2,1
5TUP 2,3
7TUP 2,1
6TUP 4,1
2WO 3,1,4(ENT)
7WO 5,2
1WO 2,4,3
4WO 7,3
10WO 1,3
9 WO 1,4
6WO 7,1